Top 20 AL East Prospects

by dkdc on Aug 28, 2008 12:23 PM EDT

OK, this was much harder than I thought it would be, and I'm certainly open to criticism. I tried to balance stats, scouting reports, and closeness to majors.

I see very little separation in the middle portion of the list, so don't complain if a guy if a few slots too high or low. I probably should've just grouped them into tiers and left them unranked, but rankings are way more fun.

I also found it difficult to compare hitters and pitchers, but I like the simplicity of one list.

The other extremely difficult aspect was ranking the 2008 draftees. Only Beckham, Matusz, and Cooper made the cut, but perhaps more should have.

1. Matt Wieters, C, BAL
2. David Price, LHP, TBR
3. Travis Snider, OF, TOR
4. Tim Beckham, SS, TBR
5. Chris Tillman, RHP, BAL
6. Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS
7. Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL
8. Wade Davis, RHP, TBR
9. Austin Jackson, OF, NYY
10. Brett Cecil, LHP, TOR
11. Michael Bowden, RHP, BOS
12. Reid Brignac, SS, TBR
13. Jesus Montero, C?, NYY
14. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TBR
15. Jake Arrieta, RHP, BAL
16. Josh Reddick, OF, BOS
17. David Hernandez, RHP, BAL
18. Jacob McGee, LHP, TBR
19. David Cooper, 1B, TOR
20. Zach McAllister, RHP, NYY

Honorable Mentions (Alphabetically)

JP Arencibia, C, TOR
Daniel Bard, RHP, BOS
Nick Barnese, RHP, TBR
Dellin Betances, RHP, NYY
Brandon Erbe, RHP, BAL
Desmond Jennings, CF, TBR
Ryan Kalish, OF, BOS
Mark Melancon, RHP, NYY
Jeff Niemann, RHP, TBR
Nolan Reimold, OF, BAL
Brandon Snyder, 1B, BAL
Chorye Spoone, RHP, BAL
Mitch Talbot, RHP, TBR

The following players were not considered because they have 'graduated': Lowrie, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Masterson, Joba, Kennedy, Gardner, Purcey, Longoria, Olson, and Liz.

Full disclosure: as an Orioles fan, I know their system better than the others, so I may be overlooking some diamonds in the rough on other teams. I tried my best to be fair.

3 recs | Comment 64 comments

Read Related

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Nice list

What a stacked division. Does the NL East even have 20 prospects?

A lot of these guys are pretty hard to separate or are too different to easily compare.I might move Reddick down just a tick or move Reimold onto the big list. Betances and Jennings could easily rocket up this list next year.

I hope this thread doesn’t get needlessly acrimonious about how these guys are ranked. Everyone’s really a winner here.

by aap212 on Aug 28, 2008 12:30 PM EDT 0 recs

NL East

The Mets and the Phillies really know how to **** the bed when it comes to building a farm system, but there is plenty of talent in the NL East.

Braves: Heyward, Schafer, Hanson, Rohbough, Gorkys, Freeman, Flowers, Medlen, Locke

Marlins: Tucker, Morrison, Maybin, Stanton, Volstad, Coghlan, Dominguez, Gaby Sanchez

Nats: Marrero, Burgess, Zimmerman, Maxwell

There, that’s more than the requisite 20 off the top of my head from just three teams. Heck, you could probably make a pretty nice top 20 from just the Braves and Marlins.

by aCone419 on Aug 28, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

Its not bad

but Id still take the AL East.

I think the major difference is down more, like prospects 30-50. That’s where the extremely deep and rich Tampa and Boston systems would really make the difference. I gotta tell you, too, the Baltimore system looks better to me every day.

by alskor on Aug 28, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

I was joking

The Mets, Phillies, and Nats are in poor shape, but they could easily put together ten solid prospects, before getting into the two best systems in the division.

My point was just that the AL East teams have by and large done a very good job with their systems, including substantial improvement for the O’s and Jays.

by aap212 on Aug 28, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

I know

The AL East is obviously better since all the systems are pretty darn good. I just wanted to use “**** the bed” with reference to the Mets and Phils.

by aCone419 on Aug 28, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

In all fairness

there are some pretty good prospects on that list.

I will double check my sarcasm meter ASAP, though : )

by alskor on Aug 28, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Also

I heart Mike Stanton…

by alskor on Aug 28, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think i would take the ALWest

but that more because of Oak and Tex stand a chance of being 1,2 in BA’s rankings

by laxtonto on Aug 28, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

dont forget

for the marlins…..Sean West

by UrRoleModel on Aug 28, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

I may be allowing BA bias

but I wouldn’t think that McAllister is the Yankees’ third best prospect and best pitching prospect. He numbers are awesome, though.

Offense doesn't doubt me, but my first and primemost thing is defense and punt return and kickoff return

by zywica on Aug 28, 2008 12:34 PM EDT 0 recs

I had trouble with the Yankees

Is the well really that dry, or am I overlooking someone?

I tried plugging a few different guys in the #20 spot, and McAllister seemed to fit the most.

by dkdc on Aug 28, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hasnt been a good year for the system.

I agree though… I took McAllister off when I started to do mine below… and I really didnt think he was going to make the list, but then as I was searching for another guy it seemed like I was looking too hard for reasons not to include him, so I threw him on there and called it a day. Im not a big fan, though. IMHO, he has the lowest upside of anyone on that list… which, because its a stacked list is still pretty good… I could probably be convinced pretty easily to go with Betances or Chorye Spoone instead.

by alskor on Aug 28, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

My top 20

1. David Price, LHP, TBR
2. Matt Wieters, C, BAL
3. Travis Snider, OF, TOR
——————————————————-
4. Wade Davis, RHP, TBR
5. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TBR
6. Michael Bowden, RHP, BOS
7. Chris Tillman, RHP, BAL
——————————————————-
8. Reid Brignac, SS, TBR
8. Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS
9. Austin Jackson, OF, NYY
10. Jesus Montero, 1B, NYY
11.Tim Beckham, SS, TBR
13. Jake Arrieta, RHP, BAL
12. David Hernandez, RHP, BAL
14. Brett Cecil, LHP, TOR
——————————————————-
16. Desmond Jennings OF, TB
17. Josh Reddick, OF, BOS
——————————————————-
18. Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL
19. Ryan Kalish OF, BOS
20. Zach McAllister, RHP, NYY

by alskor on Aug 28, 2008 1:34 PM EDT 0 recs

Clearly

I messed up the numbering there. My apologies

by alskor on Aug 28, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Looks good

You’re harsher on the 2008 draftees and you like Hellickson a lot more than me, but everyone else is within 5 spots of where I put them.

Thanks for the input.

by dkdc on Aug 28, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

yeah

I did like your list… I do tend to discount recent draftees and I do like Hellickson quite a bit.

by alskor on Aug 28, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

Everyone in the Rays org. loves him.

At one of his FSL starts, Friedman was seen and was described to me as “giddy” watching him pitch. They think he’s a stud.

I hate discounting recent draft picks, but it’s a personal preference I guess.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Aug 28, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Speaking of which

how can you dislike a guy with 3 above-average pitches and a K/BB of 5.5/1 in AA at 21?

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Aug 28, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's hard, but I'm working on it

My main concern is this; he’s given up a lot of home runs to AA hitters. It is true that he is still striking out a lot of batters too, and his control is terrific, but I’m wondering if maybe he isn’t a Kevin Slowey, a very good pitcher but not a potentially excellent one. Granted he’s only faced this trouble for half a year, but that was also the only half a year that he was in AA. That being said, I still think he’s a very good prospect and I’m basically in agreement with where he puts him on this list

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 29, 2008 1:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

A prospect with a very strong chance of being Kevin Slowey

would be extremely valuable.

For the same reasons, I’m bullish on James Simmons’s value, although I think Hellickson is a little better than Simmons.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 30, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 31, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

Response

Saying Hellickson is “only” a guy who’s posting a 3.70 ERA in his first full major league season is like incredible praise for the guy.

He’s definitely not Slowey (who, it should be noted, didn’t allow very many HRs at all in the minors). There’s a reason that HR rate shot up – he throws tons of strikes and he was just pushing through A ball batters. If he’s not throwing quality strikes, he’s going to get hit at higher levels. The approach makes his sabermetric markers look awesome, but I’m skeptical that it’s going to project especially well to MLB.

by mrkupe on Sep 1, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

Out of curiosity,

why do you put Tillman behind the 3 people ahead of him?

I think I’d probably put him at the bottom of the first tier myself, and would probably move the 12-14 group (in whatever order) to the higher part of their tier, but otherwise I like your list.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 28, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

I dont know...

theyre pretty much indistinguishable… they could have gone in any order. I love Tillman. I switched the order of those four like three times. In the end, I did it because theyre comparable prospects in my mind and those three have shown me it at higher levels. I consider Bowden, Hellickson and Davis all to be locks to be above average major league starters now. Tillman has perhaps the highest ceiling of all of them, but not that much higher that it overcomes me being 100% sure the other three are guaranteed mid to front of the rotation types. Theyre all the same though, and I certainly wouldnt quibble if someone flipped the order. That was actually the reason I did tiers…

by alskor on Aug 28, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

All I can say is...

Thank God Derek Holland isn’t in the AL East.

I’d put Tillman ahead of those other pitchers, but like I said before, most of these guys are good and different enough that there’s no sense in getting too aggravated by a place or two in the rankings.

by aap212 on Aug 28, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

Pretty much how I would change it too, but mine would look very similar as well. I would exchange Tillman and Davis and then move Davis down two more spots behind Brignac and Lars. Just not a big Davis fan and I have been saying all year that I felt Hellickson was the true #2 pitching prospect for Tampa.

Also, I would take Jennings completely off the list and move Matusz up into his spot. Not sure off the top of my head who I would throw in as the 20th prospect. Probably Lin, the other Boston OF prospect. Probably move him into the spot vacated by the Matusz move. Puts all three of the Boston OF prospects together.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Aug 28, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Small question but I'm curious where you stand

I think the difference between the first and second tiers in that list is between players who are A or A-s and B+s. i used to think that Tillman was a solid B+, but his August and his apparent improvement over the year (with the exception of July) is moving me to think that maybe he should be an A-. I realize this isn’t very important, but I’m just wondering what you think

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 29, 2008 1:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

I hadnt thought about grades...

but Tillman compares favorably to pretty much any pitching prospect. I wouldnt be shocked to see A-.

by alskor on Aug 29, 2008 1:41 AM EDT up 0 recs

I like this list much better

I might have Wade Davis a bit lower and Matusz and Jackson a bit higher. Jennings probably shouldn’t be in the top 20 at this point, simply because of his injury questions, although he has top 5 talent if he can stay healthy.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 28, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

Mark Melancon should be listed

in the top 20. Chris Garcia and others deserve HM.

by number_twentyone on Aug 28, 2008 3:15 PM EDT 0 recs

Disagree

Melancon’s probably a middle reliever. I like him a lot, but the list is filled with guys who project to be above average starting pitchers and position players.

by aap212 on Aug 28, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

everything I read

Goldstein, BA, etc… says he’s a future closer. If the criteria is projecting to be above average players, then far too many Orioles were listed.

Bard’s a good prospect who’s had a great year, but you have to go by what the scouting reports say, and they say Melancon has average stuff but a great curveball and a closer mentality. Melancon’s numbers are also depressed a bit by the fact that he’s still recovering from TJ.

by number_twentyone on Aug 28, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

You seem to contradict yourself...

Wouldnt the fact he’s recovering from TJ be a big reason to discount him?

Also, if we go by the scouting reports, theyre only going to favor Bard even more considering his stuff is a good bit better… Bard was a highly touted first round pick while Melancon was a 30th round pick. If you ask the scouts theyre going to love Bard… And if youre going to call Melancon a future closer, youd have to say Bard is also a future closer.

Im not really sure what Orioles youd take exception with…

by alskor on Aug 28, 2008 4:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

it's a reason to expect him to be even better next year

Scouting reports != pure velocity. Scouts like that Melancon goes after hitters. Melancon was definitely highly touted in the draft, he received a large bonus.

I was more taking issue with the HMs.

by number_twentyone on Aug 28, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

HM makes sense

He should be right there with Bard. I just think the division is too stacked to put any relief prospect in the top 20.

by aap212 on Aug 28, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

Agreed

Melancon belongs in the HM. I had him in the mix, but I took him off at some point.

I’ll add him.

by dkdc on Aug 28, 2008 5:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

number_twentyone

Which of the Orioles listed should Melancon be ranked ahead of? you never answered

by Birdfan01 on Aug 28, 2008 5:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

Disagree

I dont think he’s even the top relief prospect in the AL East…

Which one would you take:

A: 23yo, A-AA, 77 IP, 107 K, 42 H, 30 BB, 2.18 GO/AO
B: 23yo, A+-AA-AAA, 93 IP, 87 K, 67 H, 22 BB 1.52 GO/AO

Pitcher A is Daniel Bard, who throws 100mph. Pitcher B is Melancon. I dont even have Bard on this list, but I would definitely have him above Melancon. There are others who belong in this discussion, too… Niemann perhaps?

Melancon is a future middle reliever. He just doesnt belong on a top prospect list like this… and I like Melancon plenty, and I think he’s going to be a good major league pitcher. There’s just way too many guys who deserve to be on this list before him. Im far more troubled by the exclusion of Barnese, Spoone, Almanzar, Lin, Westmoreland, Jaso, McGee, Niemann etc… than I am by the exclusion of Melancon.

by alskor on Aug 28, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

I disagree

Melancon is:
1) In his first year back from TJ
2) Has been pitching 3 innings games for pretty much most of the season. I could guarantee that his K numbers and other stats would be prettier if he pitcher 1 inning games.

Bard has 77.2 IP in 46 games which equates to 1.678 IP/G.
Just taking Melancon’s A+ and AA games, he has 32 games and 75 IP, that’s 2.34 IP/G, and extremely high rate for a reliever. Now in AAA, now that he’s pitching shorter games (only 1 to 2 innings), he has a 5:1 K/BB ratio in 18IP.

But then again, in the end, lists mean nothing….

Also, my Yankee bias also says that Jairo Heredia, Francisco Cervelli, and Austin Romine need HM consideration…Also, watch out for Chris Garcia – he shouldn’t be on this list just yet but he’s finally healthy and could be a quick mover.

http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/

by hallofamer2000 on Aug 28, 2008 11:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

Also, Keith Law quote

Not that it means anything (no offense implied to him, but one opinion doesn’t mean it’s true)

Matt (nyc): Keith, Ive been trying to get this question through for the past 3 chats, help me out here. I know that every report I read about the yankees prospects overrates them big time. That said what do you think we can expect out of Melancon?

Keith Law: (2:31 PM ET ) I think he’s at least a solid setup guy.

At least is pretty darn good, no?

http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/

by hallofamer2000 on Aug 28, 2008 11:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

One more thing

Bard still has control problems. It’s clearly not has horrific as last year, but Bard has a BB/9 in Portland of over 4.50 (26 in 49.2 IP). That’s pretty poor.

http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/

by hallofamer2000 on Aug 29, 2008 12:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

Ummm

the part that stuck out to me was “set up guy…”

I wasnt trying to s*** on Melancon, though. As I said above, I really like him. I just dont agree he should be listed among the top 20 prospects in the division.

by alskor on Aug 29, 2008 1:43 AM EDT up 0 recs

Relievers are viewed as prospects

B/c part of the prospects definition is that a prospect can be a potential IMPACT player. Didnt 3 college relievers get drafted in the first round in 2008? The run on power relievers is on! Yanks got theirs in Melancon, and since he hasn’t pitched in the majors yet, Melancon’s prospect status is intact.

B/c he’s ready to go right now, i’d only rate Betances higher than Melancon b/c Betances still has got major projection to get to. And he’s a SP. McAllister is a close 3.

by BxCitizen on Aug 29, 2008 10:45 AM EDT up 0 recs

Sure

Three relievers were drafted in the first round, but the back half of the first round was weak this year, one of those teams has a desperate need for relievers, and one of those teams is dumb as toast (Detroit and Seattle, respectively).

by aap212 on Aug 29, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

I didnt say he wasnt a decent prospect

I just said there were BETTER prospects in this division.

by alskor on Aug 29, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Michael Almanzar should be HM

by aap212 on Aug 28, 2008 3:23 PM EDT 0 recs

I considered Almanzar

But he’s too raw and too far away for me to put on the list.

Beckham got a pass because he was drafted #1 overall, but everyone else on that list has shown something at reasonably high level of baseball competition.

by dkdc on Aug 28, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

That's why I only thought an honorable mention was in order.

by aap212 on Aug 28, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hellickson

Not to come off like a Rays homer, but I feel like Jeremy Hellickson has been criminally underranked by most of these recent exercises. Here’s a kid with three 55 pitches and 70 control, and other than giving up a flukey high number of home runs in AA, his component ratios haven’t changed all that much between A+ and AA.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 28, 2008 4:39 PM EDT 0 recs

I was very close to putting him above Wade

but then I thought… I was sooooo high on Davis going into 08… and has he really done enough to dissuade me off that notion? I dont think so. I dont want to overreact to every little fluctuation in a guy’s performance… I think people do that too often.

But again, those four pitchers probably shouldnt be numbered, but just listed in that tier… Im super high on all of them.

by alskor on Aug 28, 2008 4:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hellickson

I think very highly of Hellickson.

His placement on the list does look a little low on second glance, but I can’t justify ranking him ahead of any of the pitchers I put ahead of him because I think his upside is lower than all of them. That’s no knock on Hellickson – there’s just a lot of pitching talent in the division.

His AA numbers probably just a blip, but they do worry me a little. As you said, he’s very polished and has several above average pitches which allowed him to toy with hitters at the lower levels.

He wouldn’t be the first pitcher with that profile to struggle against more advanced hitters.

by dkdc on Aug 28, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

He hasn't really struggled against more advanced hitters though

They’re just hitting an abnormally high number of home runs off of him. Considering he’s never allowed many dingers before, I’m not worried about that aspect. He’s still King 9 per 9 with a 5.5/1 K/BB ratio. His BABIP off line drives is just absurdly high right now.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 28, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

His BABIP off line drives at AA is .765, which isn’t that out of the ordinary (ML average is .718). Reduce his BABIP to .718 and you take away 1 or 2 hits.

I don’t want to over-parse the stats here. I like Hellickson, but I just don’t like his upside enough to completely dismiss concerns about his homer-itis in Montgomery.

Hellickson basically made his repuation as an elite prospect based on his awesome stats early this year, so I think you have put a lot of weight on his less-than-stellar numbers, too.

by dkdc on Aug 28, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Jays Honorable Mention

one jay deserving of at least HM would be Brad Mills @ AA New Hampshire.

On top of that Ricky Romero the first rounder way back when seems like he might still have a chance to put it together,

by JJACK on Aug 28, 2008 9:51 PM EDT 0 recs

Betances = Top 20 on this List. Easy.

In a few weeks when League prospects lists start coming out, Betances will probably be written up like this: 6’8" / 245 pounds. Improved walk rate during season. Maintained terrific K/9 rate partly due to improved FB/CB command. Big-time ceiling intact. Will be 21 next season and Yanks should be very pleased.

by BxCitizen on Aug 29, 2008 10:42 AM EDT 0 recs

+1

I have to agree with you. He has really improved over the summer. His ceiling is incredible.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 29, 2008 10:58 AM EDT up 0 recs

I took McAllister over him

But it was pretty close. Easily the biggest upside of the guys not mentioned above, but I dont think its “easy” unless youre only about upside. Plenty of question marks here.

by alskor on Aug 29, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Kevin Ahrens

By the numbers, he has had a disappointing season. At this point I wouldn’t rank him above anyone on your list. I think he still has to be considered a legit B-grade prospect. His plate discipline is a mess, and he isn’t hitting homeruns. However, he is still just 19, and I am encouraged by his balanced switch-hitting splits.

by StickRat on Aug 29, 2008 1:48 PM EDT 0 recs

+1

It’s important to remember guys who are capable of a major step forward.

by aap212 on Aug 29, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

Jesus Montero...

is way too low (coming from a Red Sox fan). I would personally slot him at #7, but I might be crazy.

by N. Frederick Cody on Sep 1, 2008 10:22 PM EDT 0 recs

You might be crazy indeed

I think the guy’s a terrific prospect, but given how much improvement he’s shown this year, and the strength of the guys in front of him, 13 is a perfectly good ranking for him. A good number of the guys in front of him have legit star potential, and they’re all closer than he is, so it’s hard to rank him much, if any, higher than he is. I can’t imagine him cracking the top ten right now.

by aap212 on Sep 2, 2008 8:47 AM EDT up 0 recs

My list

I was going to make a list and then I realized that I don’t honestly feel there is enough TOP prospect quality here to make a legit list. Tillman is young and doing well, but I view his upside more as a 2 than anything else, which isn’t bad, but also not terribly exciting (yes I know number 2 starters are great pitchers). I don’t find Beckham to be terribly impressive, he seems like a guy who does a lot of things ok-to-good, but nothing great. I feel Snider is rushed and will fall on his face thanks to that hideous K rate. Brignac looks like an average SS to me (offense + defense). Wade Davis had a very disappointing year. Hellickson got knocked around at AA. I don’t know, I think you have two clearly elite talents in Price and Wieters and then a level below them is Lars. After that, (I admit i know more about them and this will affect my judgment), but I just like the Yankee guys, Jackson and Montero and Bettances. By the way, Austin Romine is definitely an HM.

by njasdjdh on Sep 2, 2008 7:23 PM EDT 0 recs