Minor League Ball: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Around SBN: Edgar Renteria is a San Francisco Giant Bar-right-arrows



Pedro Alvarez NOT signing contract, Boras is prick

From Pittsburgh Post Gazette:

 

The Major League Baseball Players Assocation today will file a grievance against the Pirates regarding the signing of first-round draft pick Pedro Alvarez, according to two sources.

The union's contention is that Alvarez agreed to his contract after the Aug. 15 midnight deadline.

UPDATE 1:43 p.m.: The Pirates react by issuing a statement. This is it in full:

"At the Pirates' request, the Office of the Commissioner today placed Pedro Alvarez on Major League Baseball's Restricted List.  The Pirates were forced to request that Pedro be placed on the Restricted List because we were informed by his agent, Scott Boras, that Pedro will not sign the contract to which he agreed on August 15.  Boras further informed us that Pedro will not report to the Club unless we renegotiate his contract and agree to pay him more than the $6 million signing bonus to which he agreed.

"The Major League Rules provide that a player who refuses to sign a Uniform Player Contract to which he has agreed and report to the signing Club shall, upon a report of the signing Club, be placed on the Restricted List until he signs a contract reflecting the terms to which he has agreed.  Such a player may not sign a contract with or play for any other Club. While demanding that we renegotiate his contract and pay Pedro more than the $6 million signing bonus to which Pedro agreed, Mr. Boras has contended that the contract we reached with Pedro was consummated after the Aug. 15 deadline. This claim was not raised on the evening of the 15th when we informed Mr. Boras that Major League Baseball had confirmed that the contract was submitted in a timely fashion.  Mr. Boras asserted this claim several days later, after all of the draft signings had become publicized.

"The Pirates are confident that the contract reached with Pedro Alvarez was agreed to and submitted to Major League Baseball in a timely fashion and properly accepted by Major League Baseball. In fact, the contract between the Kansas City Royals and Eric Hosmer, another Boras client, was submitted to the Office of the Commissioner after our contract with Pedro was submitted. Mr. Boras is apparently satisfied with the $6 million bonus that he secured for Mr. Hosmer and has not challenged the validity of that contract. Mr. Boras has been informed that if he pursues a claim that our contract with Pedro was not timely he puts Eric Hosmer's contract with Kansas City in jeopardy.

"The Pirates made several attempts to commence negotiations immediately following the draft and were willing and ready to agree to pay Pedro a $6 million signing bonus from the very outset. Predictably, however, Mr. Boras refused to engage in any negotiations at all until shortly before the August 15 deadline and even then an agreement was reached only after Pedro took control of the negotiations.

"Regrettably, we are not surprised that Mr. Boras would attempt to raise a meritless legal claim in an effort to compel us to renegotiate Pedro's contract to one more to his liking.  We are, however, disappointed that Pedro would allow his agent to pursue this claim on his behalf.  Pedro showed tremendous fortitude and independent thinking when he agreed to his contract on August 15.

"The Office of the Commissioner has assured us that we have a valid contract with Pedro and that it will vigorously defend any claim to the contrary. Despite our disappointment, we continue to believe in Pedro Alvarez the person and the baseball player and remain excited to add Pedro to our system. We will sit down with Pedro and his family as soon as Mr. Boras' claim is rejected to chart a new and much more productive start to Pedro's career with the Pittsburgh Pirates."

0 recs | Comment 111 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

re

If it is indeed found that the contract was signed after the deadline, you can’t blame the agent for trying to exploit the loophole. Thats what they are paid to do.

If what the Pirates are saying is true, than yes, this adds to the already lengthy list of reasons why a club should enver do any business with him

by ScottAZ on Aug 27, 2008 2:48 PM EDT   0 recs

Why does it even matter if they agreed after the deadline?

What is to stop Boras from agreeing orally to a contract before the deadline, then after midnight , if he doesn’t get his demands, saying “give us more money or else we play for the Fort Worth Cats”? An oral contract is not binding in this circumstance (violates Statute of Frauds – performance for at least one year), so Alvarez is not bound (even if he was, what would be the damages? A court would likely not compel him to play for the Pirates, would they?)

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 27, 2008 3:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

paperwork

I believe the teams have to submit the contract paperwork to MLB before the deadline. The paperwork would require the players (possibly agents) signature. If Alvarez did negotiate the deal it is possible Boras didn’t find out about it until after the deadline.

Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.

by RangerMad on Aug 27, 2008 3:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Promissory estoppel

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 28, 2008 8:55 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Loophole

Is Boras going insane? If Alvarez signed too late, then he doesn’t get to renegotiate. He has to wait a FULL YEAR until he is drafted again before he can even begin to think about playing for another MLB team. PLUS, he almost certainly has to go to indy ball, since agreeing to a professional contract even if it is voided is (I think) grounds for a loss of college eligibility.

by aCone419 on Aug 27, 2008 3:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yea, that doesn't make sense to me either

Why say the contract is void? I’d instead argue that the contract is just an oral contract that is voidable and that we won’t void it if you promise to give us our salary demands.

But if he’s arguing the contract is void, well then even if he wants more money from the Pirates, he can’t get it, can he? The deadline has definitely passed.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 27, 2008 3:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

FA

If the contract is void he’s probably aiming to become a free agent.

by nheck on Aug 27, 2008 5:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

hes got

0% shot at that.
He is either signed by the Pirates or the contract was void because he didn’t sign on time, which simply means he reenters draft in09

by nms on Aug 27, 2008 5:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Absolutely

It would be the same as if he never signed. Essentially they didnt agree to a contract before the deadline so he would reenter the draft in 09.

by alskor on Aug 27, 2008 5:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Nope

You don’t think MLB has lawyers on retainer who make 7-figure salaries going over the plain terms of the Alvarez and Hosmer contracts right now? If it was this simple, the issue would have been resolved by now and Alvarez would be getting ready for his senior year at Vanderbilt and Hosmer would be one angry dude.

The issue as I understand it is not that Boras is saying no deal was reached. His claim is that the Pirates failed to offer a contract in time. In that case, the player becomes a free agent. Whether he’s right or not has to do with interpreting the CBA rules and the actions of both negotiating parties. None of us have enough inside information on the contract language to make that determination.

This just underscores how much the draft screws talented kids over, in my opinion. I don’t have any problem with Boras exploiting loopholes to get his clients more money. He’s very good at what he does.

by slamcactus on Aug 31, 2008 9:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Huh?

Where do you see Boras claiming that the Pirates never offered a contract? His claim is they AGREED late, not that they never made an offer until too late. nms is correct. He either goes back into the draft and gets a do over on negotiations, or he is a pirate already.

The reason this hasn’t been resolved yet is the MLBPA and MLB are going to arbitration, and the date for that meeting hasn’t come yet.

by aCone419 on Sep 1, 2008 3:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Contract law...

If it was really in the plain terms of the contract, there would be no dispute. There’s an issue here because Boras is very good at contract law. The people on this site are illiterate by comparison.

The point is that an oral agreement was reached and terms sent over. No contract was signed, and Boras is exploiting some sort of clause in the contractual language.

There’s just no way a rudimentary understanding of how the draft deadline works qualifies you to talk about the merits of Boras’s case. He’s a contract lawyer, and a damned good one, and he’s made a compelling enough case that it’s going to arbitration. This is going to come down to very boring legal interpretations of contractual clauses in a binding legal document none of us has read. You don’t go to arbitration if there’s no reasonable supporting claim behind one party’s assertion. The legal system is smarter than that.

by slamcactus on Sep 1, 2008 3:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And...

the “illiterate” comment isn’t a dig at anyone, it’s just to illustrate that this is a pretty complicated area of the law. You need to study for three years to gain rudimentary understanding of this kind of thing, and then practice for 20 years or more to have anything resembling expertise. If the issue was open and shut it would have been summarily dismissed before going to arbitration. Since it wasn’t, we can at least assume Boras has an argument. Given the number of loopholes in the draft he’s found in the past, I wouldn’t count on him not having a valid point.

by slamcactus on Sep 1, 2008 3:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Missing the point

I’m sure Boras is much more versed in contract law that I am, but nothing to do with this situation. Boras did not file anything claims, nor is he exploiting any holes. The dispute in question is between the MLBPA and MLB with regards to the CBA; Boras is not one of the parties going to arbitration. And that is exactly what Boras said when reached for comment.

I don’t think you have a accurate understanding of what is going on here. I don’t need a JD to talk about the merits of Boras’ case because the case isn’t his. The complaint does not have to do with the “terms of the Alvarez contract,” but rather whether MLB violated their contractual obligations to the MLBPA, and thus whether those contracts are a priori even actionable.

You said that Boras wants to claim the Pirates never offered a contract and thus Alvarez is a free agent (a la Travis Lee) but the situation is not at all the same, and he hasn’t made any statements to that effect. Considering that no party has denied that they were negotiating at least nominally before the deadline, trying to duplicate the Lee outcome is incredibly unlikely. If Boras is trying to make Alvarez a FA, then he is playing a different angle.

by aCone419 on Sep 2, 2008 1:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes it does

The MLBPA is carrying Boras’s objections forward to the arbitration hearing. The objections have to be grounded in some sort of interpretation of the rules, or the case would not go to arbitration. I don’t pretend to understand the precise language of Boras’s claim, but I can guarantee that it is more complicated than “if there was no deal sent in time, Alvarez goes back into the 2009 draft class.”

One of the arbitors’ most important jobs is weeding out frivolous claims so that the system is not overloaded by frivolous claims. If it was as simple as most of the people on this site seem to believe, nobody would be listening to it.

by slamcactus on Sep 3, 2008 12:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What are you talking about...?

The issue is the MLBPA filing a grievance, per the CBA, about the extensions. The MLBPA is making a simple point: They collectively bargained a deadline for signing first round picks and that the Commissioners Office has unilaterally decided to allow extensions to a collectively bargained deadline without consulting the MLBPA.

The rest of this mess is over possible resolutions… but it sure seems like the MLBPA has a winner with regards to the extension issue.

by alskor on Sep 3, 2008 3:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You gotta realize

Boras will not do/say anything unless he is ok’ed by the client. While this is surely a rather low ball move by Boras, it was made possible by Pedro Alvarez.

by sagecoll on Aug 27, 2008 3:00 PM EDT   0 recs

Really?

Tell that to A-rod.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Aug 27, 2008 5:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That would be a pretty strong accusation to level

when we really have no idea what happened. It certainly is possible.

OTOH, you did remind me w/ regards to the Arod deal that Boras isnt afraid to make himself look like an idiot to please his clients.

I dont think he would act like he messed up here and didnt OK the deal with Alvarez though… that, again, would be an ethical violation for which he could be sanctioned, and likely opens himself to a negligence claim as well.

by alskor on Aug 27, 2008 7:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No

the Pit Post-Gazette said that, in front of family members and Pirates officials, Alvarez said “I accept” to a 6 mil bonus.

by nms on Aug 27, 2008 8:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

hopefully this is the kind of thing that causes an agent to lose his certification

i wouldn’t count on it, though.

to be honest, i’m in favor of a significantly more expensive rigid slotting system, and i think cases like this highlight the necessity to bite the bullet and get it done.

i’d be happy if it was just the first two rounds, to be honest. i think if you get this done, eliminate free agent compensation, and allow teams to trade picks, the draft would be a lot more productive.

by variablesdont on Aug 27, 2008 3:04 PM EDT   0 recs

I like the solidification of the slotting system

but I don’t like the part about trading picks. Part of baseball is not trading picks. We are the only major sport that doesn’t and I like it that way.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Aug 28, 2008 3:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

First part of headline is news.

Second part is OLD news.

Wow. I hope Alvarez is a Met. I don’t care what position he plays.

by METSMETSMETS on Aug 27, 2008 3:10 PM EDT   0 recs

how would

Alvarez ever become a Met? (excluding free agency/trades/ect in the future)

by nms on Aug 27, 2008 3:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Perhaps if Alvarez is declared a free agent, like Travis Lee and those other loophole guys 12 years ago.

by jonk1982 on Aug 27, 2008 4:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

but there isn't any reason why Alvarez would ever become a FA from this

None. Zero.
This is a totally different set of rules and happenings from the White, Lee, Seay, ect debacle.

Boras’ claim is that the Alvarez contract wasn’t signed on time. Even if he won that argument all that would mean is that Alvarez, and Hosmer as collateral damage, would simply become the same as Aaron Crow… he would just reenter the draft next June.
And, no matter the money demands, the odds of him falling to the Mets in next years draft would be super-minimal.
Plus, it isn’t like the Mets would take a run at him even though hes an NYC kid and would, maybe, help them reach out the Dominican or Puerto Rican (i forget which Alvarez is) kids in NYC because the Mets view keeping bonuses at slot as a supreme virtue.

by nms on Aug 27, 2008 4:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Boras could argue that the contract was agreed to before the deadline, but that the Pirates erred in not getting it signed. As such, he could argue, it would not be Alvarez’s fault and he shouldn’t be punished by having to wait until next year’s draft, thus being granted free agency.

Just sayin’.

by jonk1982 on Aug 27, 2008 5:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He COULD....

He could argue that, but that’s an argument he’d have no chance of winning.

by aCone419 on Aug 27, 2008 5:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

the contract does not have to be signed...

MLB just needs to be informed that a verbal agreement has been reached before the deadline.

Little to no chance Alvarez becomes a free agent.

by sgrape13 on Aug 27, 2008 11:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i think that is what Boras wants?

Isn’t it?

i could be wrong.

by nms on Aug 27, 2008 4:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Because the Pirates are saying Hosmer's contract was sent in later.

And if that’s the case, presumably, his contract would be void too. If he can get Alvarez to become a FA, then he could get Hosmer to become a FA (not saying this will happen, just assuming that’s the goal).

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Aug 27, 2008 5:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hosmer also would just go back in the draft

No way Boras wants that. All he wants is more money from the Pirates. The worst case for him is two voided deals and two kids who have to sit out a year… that’s two pissed off clients who didnt get paid.

by alskor on Aug 27, 2008 5:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

exactly

Thats why the Pirates are the ones bringing it up as a threat.

I’m not sure if he’d have two pissed of clients though. Hosmer certainly but it doesn’t seem like Alvarez is objecting to the current track of things

by nms on Aug 27, 2008 6:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I would think Alvarez would be happy to sign

but just feels he didnt get enough money – or all that Boras promised him. If he was imagining big money and signing before the deadline and now ends up not playing ball and no money he might be pretty angry at Mr. Boras.

by alskor on Aug 27, 2008 6:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

My guess

is that Alvarez agreed to the deal at the last minute, then later realized that Hosmer got the exact same offer. With time to think about it, he probably thought he got ripped off a bit since he was drafted earlier and is much more advanced. Now him and Boras are trying to go back on their word to get more money.

by deezle on Aug 27, 2008 10:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If this happens casue of Boras

is there a lawsuit for Hosmer…

Loss of Bonus, loss of ASU scholarship, loss of the chance to CC…

by laxtonto on Aug 27, 2008 6:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Very difficult to prove

The details are going to be very sketchy, I would wager. One issue might be whether Boras could adequately represent both clients if indeed he agreed to numbers but the deals werent submitted in time. That would be an ethical violation for an attorney (which is what Boras is and is acting as when he represents a player).

The damages are very real, of course, but what was negotiation/zealous advocacy and what was negligence by Boras is probably not going to be clear or easy to prove in court.

The best we might hope for is that he will be found guilty in the all important court of public opinion…

by alskor on Aug 27, 2008 6:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hosmer-ASU

Hosmer would be ruled ineligible by the NCAA as he (presumably) had Boras talk with Kansas City on his behalf.

by Koby Schellenger on Aug 27, 2008 8:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I just read

on Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s site that Hosmer requested, and was granted, an extension by MLBPA and the commissioner’s office, so he’s ok.

The crux of the grievance is that MLBPA never approved an extension for Alvarez, thereby violating the CBA.

What I’m still failing to understand is how Alvarez is even covered by that, since they’re arguing that his contract is voidable. That would make him an unsigned amateur player.

by El Duq of Hurl on Aug 28, 2008 12:49 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

rights

But the MLBPA represents potential members as well as actual members and the agreement covers a players rights (that’s how they can bargain the draft).

As I understand it, if the agreement was in time, then his rights belong to the Pirates until he signs the agreed contract (point of the restricted list), so he’s stuck. If it isn’t a valid contract then he missed the deadline and must enter the draft next year. There’s no renegotiating.

As for Boras, if he advocated a position that was detrimental to a client he is in trouble. At the least he would have to drop the client and be responsible for any damages he caused. But if there was an approved waiver then this isn’t an issue. His other potential problem is if he signed the initial agreement (the one he is now disputing). Then he would be either barred from contesting it or totally screwed, his choice. But if he didn’t sign it and the client wants him to go through these gyrations then he isn’t doing anything ethically wrong (professionally at least).

Why any club deals with him is beyond me.

by B_Agate on Aug 28, 2008 1:30 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Or Alvarez for that matter

Other than JD Drew, nobody’s ever sat out a year and ended up making more money than they would have had they signed, once you account for the year of lost income.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 28, 2008 8:59 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I know this won't happen in this case

but what about Travis Lee and those people?

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 28, 2008 12:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

They were loophole free agents

A player becomes a free agent if he isn’t tendered a contract in the first three days within getting drafted. Completely different situation, and obviously those guys made out like robber-barons.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 28, 2008 4:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Luke Hochevar?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 28, 2008 12:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He got $2M more

than his offer from the Dodgers. However, where do you think he would have made more money, the $2M he got for sitting out a year, or the money he’s would have made had he hit arbitration and free agency a year earlier?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 28, 2008 4:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Based on the way he's pitching

He will probably make more by sitting out a year.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 28, 2008 5:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Touche

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 28, 2008 5:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

that really is the rationale though

for holding out for bonus money now, instead of thinking about how that could cost you in FA/Arb.

You never know if you are going to make it, so that extra 1 mil could go along way towards having enough money to be set for a very early and comfortable retirement if you suck, wash out or get hurt and don’t have a baseball career of much.

The FA and arb money is the money that is kind of “gravy,” money that will allow you to live in luxury now and for the future

by nms on Aug 29, 2008 2:04 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Um, Hochevar?

Hochevar signed for $4 million, $1.2 million more than the Dodgers were offering.

Minor leaguers don’t make $1.2 million/year. They don’t make 1/20th of that.

by slamcactus on Aug 31, 2008 9:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yea

That would be awesome for two teams that need the talent.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 27, 2008 6:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Collateral damage

I dont particularly dislike either team, but it seems to me a small price to pay to take down Scott Boras for good! :)

by alskor on Aug 27, 2008 6:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It's no skin off Pittsburgh or KC's nose

assuming they get comp picks, which I believe they would since they did offer a valid contract to their draftees. They just get a player of similar value next year.

The losers here would be Hosmer and Alvarez.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 27, 2008 8:48 PM EDT   0 recs

Not so

They wouldn’t get the guys they wanted this year. We have no way of knowing how much the teams would prefer Hosmer/Alvarez vs. whoever from next year, a draft that is currently looking heavy on college arms.
And even if whoever they pick next year would be equal in talent it is a lot more valueable to an org to have a talent now than an equal talent a year from now.
Also, they would have little leverage to sign next years selections from the comp picks since comp picks do not yield a comp pick. So they would HAVE to sign the guys or completely lose the pick.

by nms on Aug 27, 2008 8:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hogwash

And even if whoever they pick next year would be equal in talent it is a lot more valueable to an org to have a talent now than an equal talent a year from now.

You could make a very strong argument that for a rebuilding team in Pittsburgh’s position, it’s much more valuable to have a player next year, because he’ll mature (/ be in his cost-controlled years) in a period when the team is theoretically more competitive. At the very least, there’s no reason to believe a player this year is NECESSARILY better than a player next year.

A win is a win. It is not less valuable because it happens in 2012 instead of 2011.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 28, 2008 4:23 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hogwash?

I disagree (and not simply with your language). Even if one could decide whether to add a win in 2012 or 2011, the first choice is almost always to add it earlier, because in the real world, one lacks both prophecy and retrospect. If you can strengthen your team now, you do, and don’t wait for the possibility of maybe strengthening it somewhere down the line.

Second, I don’t understand your argument about a rebuilding team like Pittsburgh. In your own example, the decision is between making the Pirates better in 2011 or 2012 – 3 or 4 years down the line. How long of a rebuilding process are you expecting? Granted that the likelihood of the Pirates successfully rebuilding isn’t especially high, especially if they fail to sign Alvarez, but why should the team expect to only be competitive 4 years down the road and not 3? In 3 years, Nate McLouth will be 29, Steve Pearce 28, Andy Laroche will be 27, Jose Tabata 22, Craig Hansen 27, Ryan Doumit 30, Paul Malholm 29, and if they get Pedro Alvarez, he’ll be 25. Stupidly or not, these are the players the Pirates are betting a franchise on, so they better hope that by 2011 they’re in a position to compete. Furthermore, the period that a player is cost-controlled is more than 3 or 4 years – it’s 6. In 6 years, Laroche will be 30, Tabata 25, etc etc – surely by then you’d want a star of Alvarez’s caliber on your team, rebuilding now or not, right?

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 28, 2008 12:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If you can strengthen your team now, you do, and don’t wait for the possibility of maybe strengthening it somewhere down the line.

Yes. It is never correct to rebuild. You should always buy and never sell players. Of course, this means no one will ever trade anything because everyone is a buyer, but who cares. Get that win NOW! Even though it’s useless to your team because it’s 30 games under .500.

I think Pirates fans have seen enough of that strategy lately, as the fact that Matt Morris is still collecting a paycheck demonstrates.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 28, 2008 3:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hahaha

Point taken, and on your comment below on compound interest and that not applying here. Where you’re wrong, however, is we’re not talking about buying a veteran for a win now or investing in a prospect for a win later; we’re talking about getting a prospect now to win in 3 years or a prospect next year to win in 4 years. When given the choice, you act now. And nms is right – that is common sense.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 28, 2008 4:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

OldPs post was good, so I won't repeat those solid points but

I will just add that in ANY FIELD an asset now is worth more than a similar asset a year from now. It is common sense

by nms on Aug 28, 2008 1:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No. It isn't.

The reason money now is worth more than money a year from now is twofold: you can lend that money out at interest, and also inflation will reduce its future value.

That’s it.

Last time I checked, you could not lend a player out at interest, and I’m not aware of any such thing as “player inflation.” Your “common sense” is wrong. The factors that make future money worth less than current money are not applicable here at all.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 28, 2008 3:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

...

A good player this year means a good player (or a chance at a good player or whatever) in the majors a year earlier. A good player in the majors a year earlier means a winning team a year earlier. A winning team a year earlier means higher revenues a year earlier.

And we’ve already agreed that money is worth more now than it is a year from now.

by mraver on Aug 28, 2008 5:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

But don forget about the attrition rates of minor leaguers

Crow or Alvarez or Hosmer, or…. may never make it to the point to reach arbitration much less even just reaching the majors.

Its not a great idea to assume that these players will automatically make it,and therefore hurting their long term value.

by laxtonto on Aug 28, 2008 7:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Given the rate at which MLB's revenues are increasing,

I’d venture to say that from a purely fiscal standpoint, a win next year is highly likely to be worth more (after adjusting for inflation and opportunity cost, per the above) than it is this year. Piece of a bigger pie and all that. Granted, if baseball revenues were in decline the opposite would be true.

The real key here, though, is that there’s a threshold effect for what players are worth. Taking a team to the playoffs is worth a lot more than not doing so. So you want to concentrate your talent in a certain time frame. Is it clear that getting someone in the ’09 draft will do a better job of that for Pittsburgh than getting Alvarez? No, the opposite is probably true… which is why they were willing to go after him at all.

My point is not a specific one about Pedro Alvarez. Pittsburgh is probably better off if they get him than if they don’t and take a new pick next year, so in that sense my original post was a little misleading. (In my defense, “it’s only the outer epidermis off of Pittsburgh’s nose” just doesn’t have the same ring to it.) It’s a general critique of the notion that a player now is ALWAYS better than a player later. Which is, as I’ve said, hogwash.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2008 12:24 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

than why would you ever sign your guy now

under your logic if the future is so much better than the present.

At some point you have to win, and it is ALWAYS better to win now than next year.. why would you want to dawdle ?

by nms on Aug 29, 2008 2:06 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What?

It is always better to win now than next year?

Hm. You’d better tell that to Billy Beane, I don’t think he agrees with you.

Once again you have managed to utterly miss the point of my post, which is not that “the future is so much better than the present” but that the value of a player this year vis a vis the value of a player next year is profoundly situational and team-dependent, and thus you can’t sum up the right move in a pithy one-liner. Perhaps you find that disappointing.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2008 7:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree except for one point

“The real key here, though, is that there’s a threshold effect for what players are worth. Taking a team to the playoffs is worth a lot more than not doing so. So you want to concentrate your talent in a certain time frame.”

And what time frame would that be? Who has the predictive powers to know when precisely a team’s talent will be concentrated enough? I can tell you that the Pirates next year won’t be making the playoffs, and I can even tell you that in 5 years the As will probably be stronger than they are next year. I have no idea, though, whether they’re be stronger in 2012 or in 2013, or whether they’ll be a championship-caliber team or simply above average. I can tell you that next year the Rays will be good, but I have no idea whether they can win the World Series without adding a veteran or not. You’re talking like a mixture of a baseball historian and a baseball prophet, who can see precisely when a team is just a game or two beneath making the playoffs or the World Series and that year, will add the crucial player. Your team may always have a reserve 1B for Bill Buckner and a lefty specialist to handle Reggie Jackson, but that team will also only be imaginary. In the real world, people don’t know, they guess, they imagine, they make mistakes. You can’t plot your team to just make the playoffs by one game, because there isn’t that much of an advantage to winning your division by 7, so you might as well trade the extra 6 games for more revenues or another prospect. (I know you’re going to love this but) you’re dealing with human beings, not computers. (And yes, I’m fully aware of the importance of advanced statistics, but also aware that them dealing with human beings, there is a margin of error built into them. That error is my point)

As to what was apparently your original point, that oftentimes it’s better to get a prospect rather than a veteran, to get a player for later rather than now, you are, of course, right.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 29, 2008 9:09 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Of course we can't predict perfectly

Nonetheless, if you come to the realization that you want a guy who peaks in 2012 about 45% of the time and a guy who peaks in 2013 about 55% of the time, you take the guy in 2013. Obviously, you have a very high likelihood of being wrong. It is almost a coin flip. But building a winning team depends on accumulating small edges like that.

You have to play the percentages, and surely we can all agree that any competent front office should have a probabilistic idea of when they’ll have the highest likelihood of success with their current group of guys.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2008 7:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Huh?

“Nonetheless, if you come to the realization that you want a guy who peaks in 2012 about 45% of the time and a guy who peaks in 2013 about 55% of the time, you take the guy in 2013.”

Seriously; what does this mean? We’re now betting on when a player’s career season will be, in 4 or 5 years? What statistical program even exists for such a thing? Do you really want your front office people spending time trying to figure out whether Melky Cabrera or Miguel Cabrera will peak in 2012 or 2013 rather than which of those players is, you know, better? What sort of idiots would have to populate a front office in order to spend all of their time trying to plot a championship victory in just 2012 or 2013, rather than simply trying to construct a successful team?

I wouldn’t say your argument has so much jumped the shark as leaped so far over it you’re deep in the desert. I think what happened was that you made a comment that nobody apparently quite understood, and now feel obligated to defend an absurd idea that you yourself are probably too smart to actually believe. Do you seriously think that even the best statistical program can predict so precisely how a player will do 4-5 years from now? When did life become an Isaac Asimov novel?!