Who is the best starting pitching prospect in baseball? My top 25

i will add now. thx for mentioning him.

i like cortes quite a bit but fail to see how he’d come out in the top 15.

110.2/103/53/106/3.98/0.80/.251

those numbers are good and all but nothing eye popping. i think he’s borderline top 25.

Hello seabass,

I agree – Huff was somewhat comparable to Sowers when he was drafted – college arm that could move quickly and has good command of solid stuff. However, unlike Sowers, Huff has had very good K rates to go along with his quick progression, making his ceiling much higher than Sowers in my opinion. I think Huff has at least a #3 ceiling, and I think a #2 ceiling is not out of the question for him, so I certainly think Huff should be mentioned in the HMs, if not be in the 10-20 range of this list.

Just my 2 cents – no offense.

Take care and have a great day!

I just don’t see all of those injuries as bad luck and don’t see his chances of being consistantly healthy to be all that good. He’d be on the lower part of my list.

But I think you are wrong on the “no major surgery” thing. I thought I remember reading that he had Tommy John surgery back in like 2004 or so. Basically the year before he broke onto the prospect scene. I remember reading that when he came back from the injury/surgery his fastball had gained like 5MPH in velocity. Someone can correct me if I am remembering this wrong though.

Not sure you can eliminate these two after arm surgery, McGee was top 5 before? I’m not sure I drop him from top 25 due to injury.

he’s top 5 for sure, but certainly argueable he’s not #2.

Hello pinstripes,

I’m here – it’s been a busy year in 2008 for me, including 2 recent deaths in the family, along with some other factors (grandmother in a nursing home, my mother was ill for a time, though she is healthy now, thank goodness, much work to do, etc.) I’m sorry that I have not been around as much this year.

At any rate, in terms of ceiling, I could see an argument for Miller being around #3 or so, maybe a little lower. When you factor in his health, he’s probably lower than #3, say around #10 or so. (I didn’t fully analyze all those pitchers, so those rankings could be a bit off; that was just at a quick glance).

However, I agree with your point above – Miller is still young enough to rebound. It’s likely he’ll still get a couple more years to live up to his potential; his arm is the type that you don’t give up on too easily.

At worst, if the health issues continue, he could be moved to a backend-role in the bullpen, possibly even as a closer. While we’d really like Miller to live up to his potential as a starter, if Miller can only stay healthy as a reliever/closer and dominate there, that’s better than not getting anything from him at all.

The same situation applies greatly to Lofgren – I don’t know if the move to the bullpen is a permanent one; from what I’ve read and heard, it sounds like it’s temporary and he’ll be moved back to the rotation next year, probably with perhaps one more chance as a starter to build on what he did a couple years ago at Kinston (presumably at AA Akron). If he falters again next season, I could see where he might be moved to the bullpen in the second half of next year or the first half of 2010, mostly because his command has been much better as a reliever; from what I’ve read and heard, it seems he has better focus when coming out of the bullpen.

I’m not sure, but what was mentioned in the Indians Top 20 list about Lofgren perhaps having issues within his family this season may also be true – I’m not entirely sure, but that’s another reason why I think he’ll probably get another chance at starting next season, but if he falters badly again, I could see a permanent move to the bullpen as early as late next year.

I hope that is helpful.

Again, sorry I haven’t been around much – I’ll try to come back more often in the coming months. Keep up the great work! :-)

Take care and have a great day!

and i feel like him and tillman is pretty close to a toss-up…and i’m an a’s fan.

I just don’t see how it pertains to pitchers in the same way it pertains to hitters. People are honestly using “two months younger” and “three months younger” to justify one pitcher over another? That’s the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard.

so you think i’m giving hernandez more credit than he deserves for being at a higher level? granted he’s a year older but the stats are pretty similar.

I guess everyone’s entitled to their opinion….

Cahill’s upside and likely comparable is Brandon Webb. Some feel that because Cahill doesn’t throw 95, he shouldn’t be considered an elite pitching prospect. Newsflash, you don’t need mid-90s heat to be an Ace. Along with his devastating sinking, he throws a filthy knuckle curve. Bottom line, this kid knows how to pitch and get batters out. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a better career than #1 David Price.

Best case scenario, Cahill does an excellent Brandon Webb impression.

Worst case scenario, Cahill becomes Tim Hudson.

Come on seriously?

He won’t be posted for years. He has around 5 years left before he can become a FA and the Japanese league does not want to be seen as a feeder system to MLB. I know prospect fans want him in MLB but it is very doubtful to happen in the near future.

Forget about Yu Darvish, he’s not getting posted until well in the teens, and who knows if he’ll even have an arm by then. Not only that, but he’s not as good as he’s cracked up to be on here anyway. People love him because he’s still projectable, but in terms of stuff, he’s not that spectacular, more like a top 10 guy than a #1 overall guy. Low-90’s FB, good (but not great) slider, good (but not great) ‘shooto’, rudimentary curve, no strikeout pitch, and mediocre control. He was thoroughly outshone by Cuba’s starting pitcher in the Olympics.

But I actually still like this list a lot, I think it’s an accurate reflection of their current value. I kinda prefer the more outlandish projections more like you had originally than more reflecting the prospect groupthink, like Baseball Notebook used to do. Cuz when you go against the grain and you’re right, it’s oh so good :)

From BA:

No starting pitcher in the minors throws harder than Jeffress, who’s been clocked at 100-102 mph this year depending on which radar gun you’re reading.

Most everybody on this list will get a B+ or higher from John. That’s not a good argument to put Holland at the top.

The ridiculous argument above is much ado about nothing.

Guy came out of nowhere.

What questions could people have about Cahill?

IMO…

Derek Holland = Scott Kazmir (high end upside), Jon Lester (low end upside)

Trevor Cahill = Brandon Webb (high end upside), Tim Hudson (low end upside)

Both are elite pitching prospects who don’t get enough respect around here.

I’d do plus a million but I’m only one person. was thinking the same thing though.

has always been a flaw of prospectors.

what’s the big deal? he’s a terrific pitching prospect to be sure.

if my tone seemed annoyed or “huffy” i apologize. that was not my intention. basically, he was collateral damage due to the inclusion of huff (no pun intended), jeffress & cortes.

however, i still really, really like him and one could certainly argue that he belongs on the list.

i hope that answers your question.

thx!