Best 1B in 2008 Draft
by bryeic on Aug 25, 2008 5:42 PM EDT
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Print2008 will be go down as the decades' best 1B draft.
Below is my view on the top 5 fuirstbaseman in the draft:
1. Justin Smoak - Mark Texeira clone will clubbing HRs in Texas for years to come.
2. Brett Wallace - Natural born hitter - will soon abandon all attempts at 3B for a firstbaseman's glove. Already in AA and Travis Hafner-comp not out of the question.
3. Pedro Alvarez - Hamate injury puts his MLB career on ice temporarily. Strong comps to Albert Pujols-lite serves him well for future.
4. Eric Hosmer - HS phenom can really rake. 2012 ETA debut has him at #4.
5. Yonder Alonso - U of MIami product is a hitting stud but carries cement glove afield.
HM - David Cooper, Allen Dystrka, Ike Davis (ugh)
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Alonso
Pedro is a thirdbaseman so he isn’t really relevant in this discussion unless Pittsburgh formally decides to move him. If Pedro was a firstbaseman he would be my choice.
I will go with Yonder as he is a great pure hitter who has the potential to hit .300 with good power. He has a strong work ethic and will help cement the middle of the Reds lineup for years to come.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 25, 2008 6:39 PM EDT reply actions
No way
does Wallace, as good of a hitter as he is, come anywhere close to ever putting up a Hafner-in-his prime kind of year.
Of course, considering Hafner was traded from Einar Diaz I’m sure everyone said the same about Pronk until he actually did it.
Yonders “pure hitting” skills are really overrated to me. You make his swing get a little long and he doesn’t adjust to offspeed stuff as well as other college stars. There are some small holes in that swing. Plus he looks really bad vs. LHP.
I think the 1bs of this draft won’t actually turn out as great as they are hyped to be. I’m betting we get one multiple all-star, probably Smoak maybe Alvarez if he winds up there, and maybe one or two “solid” types of players.
My bet is that 4-6 years from now, and even 8-9 years from now predictions of the 1Bs from this draft being the story of it won’t look as good… but that is just one man’s silly opinion.
Maybe Wallace comes close to Hafner....
if he does as many steroids as Hafner did. Absolutely amazing how Hafner went from .659 slugging pct in 2006 to .451 last year to .350 this year and he has been more brittle than Carl Pavano. You can see the roid monsters fading away.
I respect your opinion...
because you watch a LOT of college baseball but I think Alonso is going to be GREAT. Not because he doesn’t have holes in his swing or some work to do hitting lefties or he isn’t JT Snow at 1b or he doesn’t steal bases or doesn’t have Mickey Mantle upside or whatever other irrevevent cricisms leveled against him on here. Here’s what he DOES have…
GREAT, GREAT ability to recognize a pitch and control the strikezone
Great ability to wait on a ball and hit it the other way
Very good abiity to hit a good fastball
Very good natural power to all fields
and, the KEY for me…GREAT ability and intelligence to work and get better at the things he isn’t good at. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up as the best player in the draft though I think this will go down as a great draft….Alvarez, Wallace, G. Beckham, Posey are ALL future All-Stars in my eyes but I guess we’ll watch and learn Bud.
Also
who on earth ever said “Pujols lite” about Alvarez?
Talk about hyperbole…
+1
Definitely hyperbole. While I sort of get why someone would say that, but given that basically everyone in baseball is worse than Pujols, saying Pujols lite or poor man’s Pujols is pretty dopey. Couldn’t you just say huge upside with a broad base of hitting skills, likely to move off third?
It’s sort of like when good hitting second base prospects get compared to Chase Utley or guys with speed and any secondary skill get compared to Rickey Henderson.
Manny
I have often heard him compared to Manny. Even John stated that was a good comparison.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 25, 2008 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Once again...
You can say a guy has absolutely elite upside—or even say what his absolutely best case scenario is—but it’s not fair to compare a guy who’s never played a minor league game to one of the very greatest right handed hitters ever.
Not fair?
I am sorry but when he was demanding Texiera type money, I don’t see why it ’it’s not fair’ to compare him to a player of great pedigree. Do you want me to compare him to Bill Mueller because that is a lesser player….well it isn’t accurate. Pedro does have GREAT talent and his draft slot shows that. He raked throughout college and most scouts believe he will become an impact bat in the majors. Who would you compare Pedro to?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 25, 2008 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
I must note that I usually refrain from high praise compables. However, for some prospect such as Price, Bruce, Alverez, and Upton I have to give them high comparables because that is what they deserve and in my opinion will likely become.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 25, 2008 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing for me is...
Alvarez could fall well short of Pujols or Ramirez and still have been a fantastic success for the draft pick and for whatever bonus money, and still be one of the best hitters of his generation. So comparing him to guys that only a small, small handful of guys in all of baseball history could be compared to seems to set unrealistic expectations.
Who would you compare him to?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 25, 2008 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
I must note that it is easy to criticize others comparables when you are not willing to give one yourself. If you don’t think comparables are a good idea, then perhaps you are coming to the wrong site.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 25, 2008 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll be happy to
After I’ve seen him play a little pro ball first. It’s kind of like with Tim Beckham. I believe in his talent, but I’ve heard a lot of hyperbole and different comps about what kind of player he’ll become. I’d like to see him get some pro ball under his belt before I compare him to anyone.
College ball
College ball is generally better then Low A. If a guy can make a comp on Heyward, I don’t see why they can’t make one on Pedro.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 25, 2008 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Disagree
Minor league ball is much more standardized and readable than college.
In any case, I’m not totally against making comps for a guy, but part of my problem is making such insanely great comps for a guy because of people’s comps.
I constantly see inflated comps for prospects, and that may be okay with a guy like Alvarez. But take a guy like Colby Rasmus. One of the best prospects in baseball, no question. And I see him as a Ray Lankford type, which would be a great success. But a lot of Cards fans would jump down my throat for saying it.
If Alvarez turned out to have a Jason Giambi type career, that would be an excellent use of the draft pick and the bonus money, but people on these boards act like it would be a disappointment if he’s anything less than a hall of famer.
What?`
College ball is NOT better than low A. It just isn’t. That isn’t close to being true.
The best college players can play at or above a low-A level, but to suggest college ball – even in the SEC – is low-A caliber is ludicrous.
Actually
that question was posed to Callis (I think) at BA some time ago. His response was that the better divisions / teams that make the tourney are somewhere in the neighborhood of Low-A to High-A.
+1
Obviously I referring to the top divisions. The top division teams in college are in fact in line, if not better than, Low A teams.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 25, 2008 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Different
If I am thinking of the same statement from Callis, what he said was that the best college TEAMS (not divisions) could perhaps hold there own in Low A. But he was refering to a select few or perhaps even one team in any given year, not a whole division or “college ball” in general. He certainly wasn’t implying that college ball was generally BETTER than Low A.
Just think about it for a half second, and this is obvious. How many successful college players wash out almost immediately? A lot, that’s how many.
I Don't Know...
But I have read people compare him to Pujols in certain aspects, like power, and swing. Maybe that’s where the people came up with him being comp’d to Pujols, I would hope so. I love Pedro Alvarez, but Pujols is too good for anyone to be legitimately compared to him until they actually show it in the bigs.
"I hate the people that love me, and they hate me!"
I would love to talk to anyone
who has seen both of the play, that would compare Alvarez to Pujols.
Pujols is on an inner-circle HOF track!
I’m no expert but I see similarities to Pujols as far as mechanics go when I watch video of Alvarez. Now I don’t think he will ever have the eye that Pujols has or be able to control the strike zone but that aside I think he could potentially be “Pujols-lite” with a little less avg/obp because of the poorer strike zone judgment. I think their power is comparable (it’s possible Alvarez has more), Alvarez sticking at 3B could make his defensive contribution more valuable and they are both intelligent baseball players. If people can still continue to compare T. Beckham to Justin Upton than I don’t think what the OP said is out of the question.
I agree with Casjud’s post below me as well. I’m not big into comps at all really so don’t pay attention to them. I don’t think I’d compare the two as players necessarily but when I watch Alvarez swing the bat it reminds me a little of Pujols from the opposite side.
Whats funny about that...
…to me is that I dont mind the hyperbole or the "fairness’, whatever the hell that meens, in the comp. What bothers me is that I take a comparison SERIOUSLY…as in there are similarities in projected production AND aesthetically. Scouts do this BTW. When I hear or do a comparison to Alvarez i wan’t to hear about a LEFTY hitter with a powerfull, long but quick swing …
Carlos Delgado. Not perfect but when I see Pedro swing I can see the posibilities. There is a TON of power in that swing.
Response
Interesting comp. How about a LH Pat Burrell? Alvarez is a better athlete but similar skills sets, pedigrees. I could see their major league production levels being strikingly similar as well.
I’m a bit of a skeptic as to whether or not Alvarez is going to hit for a quality BA at the major league level . . .but geez, that swing has so much power and loft in it. That’s plus-plus power that’s going to play even if he’s a .250-.260 hitter.
Thats a possibility...
….I’m not a huge fan of comparing Lefties to Righties, as you can read but I see what you meen. I see more FLUIDNESS in Alvarez’s swing though which makes me think he’ll learn to hit more of a variety of pitches and places in the zone. Burrel gets rigid and upright which limits him on balls high and inside and outside. You could be right though. Alvarez does swing through a lot of balls. I see a higher average there. I certainly agree with you on the power though.
Less chance...
of him ever making the majors since it will take him longer to get there. I think a good prospect list finds a good balance between upside and the likelihood of ever seeing the majors.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
+1
And especially if you want them in a fantasy league.
Hey fish, leave those kids alone!
by The Congo Hammer on Aug 25, 2008 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Different Ranking
1) Smoak
2) Hosmer
3) Alonso
4) Wallace
5) Cooper
If Alvarez is moved to first, he shoots to the top. His injury doesn’t concern me long term.
I’m also extremely bearish about Davis and Dykstra.
Hosmer will rip them all
he will be MLB ready in 2011 at latest; coached oppo. him in tourneys (incl. some wood bats) for yrs. Massive power, great stroke, a little weak on 90+ heat inside but show me a teenager who isn’t. Tremendous hands & footwork, moves real easy for someone so big. A plus arm, prob. could handle 3B much less a corner OF. He will toy w/ A ball ala Heyward (which is who he reminds me of stick-wise). Not just for power but he goes up the middle and oppo on purpose w/ outside heat & offspeed stuff, and still dents the fences. In last 3 yrs only other kid I saw do that on purpose anyway was Heyward. Maybe he is the caucasion (still in use ???) Heyward… Luv the Kila Monster but really KC has no one to block him, he should fast track easily enough. Good kid too, not full of himself.
Smoak is a beast, would be my #2; on real field he is more valuable than Alvarez will be there (due to glove). For the record I believe plus D at 1B is vastly underrated – ask your INFs & pitchers sometime. For fantasy purposes I guess Pedro might have him beat. I figure there is no way Pitt moves LaRoche off 3B for Alvarez.
Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.
+1
Hosmer has been a bit underrated on this board. There’s a reason KC was willing to bend over for him and Boras at #3 when they could have easily had Smoak, Alonso, or Wallace for less money. The latter three all have a great shot at becoming very good MLB starters, but Hosmer has a chance to be elite. He has an amazing batting eye and awesome power that is even more astounding when you see how lanky he still is. Once he fills into his frame he is going to be sick.
Callis said he would take Hosmer over any of the top college 1st basemen in this draft, and PGCrosschecker said he’s one of the three best prep bats of the last 20 years or so. Discounting him too much simply due to his age is a mistake.
Uh...
Easily had Alonso for less money? Alonso signed a major league deal worth more in the long run than Hosmer’s minor league deal.
6 > 4.55
Hosmer is receiving more guaranteed money. It’s really not that hard to understand.
Hey smart ass
1.45 mil is squat when figure in that Alonso is going to get his service clock rolling much sooner. It’s not rocket science, I know, just pretend like you understand so you don’t look worse than you already do.
Not as far as I can tell.
He’s only guaranteed 4.55 million though. His Arb clock doesn’t start until he makes the show. Sure, he’s getting a higher annual salary, but he certainly didn’t make more than Hosmer.
* signed Major League contract 8/15/08
* $2M signing bonus
* 08:$50,000, 09:$0.4M, 10:$0.5M, 11:$0.6M, 12:$1M
* if eligible, Alonso may opt for arbitration after 2011
* award bonuses: $0.1M each for MVP or WS MVP; $25,000 for Rookie of Year
* $78,000 for cost of 3 remaining semesters of college ($60,000 tuition, $18,000 room, board)
* drafted 2008 (1-7) (Miami, FL)
* agent: Greg Genske
* ML service: 0
That’s how his contract is set up. I would say that with Votto, it’s unlikely that he makes it to the show before late next year at the earliest. Meaning, he likely won’t be arb eligible before this contract is up. So this contract is most likely going to stick. He’s going to make the 4.55 million through 2012. Hosmer already has 6 million and based on his scouting report, it’s pretty likely to make the show at least by 2012. So while Alonzo will have a head start, Hosmer is significantly younger and is likely, base on his initial contract to make more money than Hosmer through 2012 and probably beyond.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
Good post
Plus the jackels howling back and forth earlier should remember that, if you’re trying figure out how much a team spent on a guy, it isn’t as simple as saying MLB>milb deal or vice versa.
Cash strapped teams will often offer MLB deals to defray their current costs because the MLB deals allow them to defer much, and sometimes all, of the payments to future years. The cheapstake Reds themselves did that several years ago, under different ownership I think, when they over drafted Pepperdine C Dane Sardina and Miami HS SS (later OF) Danny Espinosa because they agreed to MLB contracts ahead of time.
Plus, for the player, MLB contracts get them service time and arb quicker but minor league deals often offer them a better bonus.. and a bonus that will be paid today.. not in installments for the next 5 years (besides “two-sport” guys)
Not to mention that MLB deals burn up a player's option years
and sometimes lead to the player getting rushed.
Some hot-dogs think they can handle anything and view that as a bonus, but players who are more self-aware usually don’t press for major league deals. The “utility” to the player is highly questionable at best. (This only really applies to HS players and international FAs. It’s not much of a factor for college players.)
Michel Inoa said when he signed that he deliberately turned down a major league deal because it would have put him on a strict clock and forced him to make the majors by 2012.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Nonsense
Smoak’s freaking glove has to be THE MOST overated thing about these college drafties on this site. He’s decent, competent, nothing more. Alvarez is going to have more defensive value than Smoak either by being an average 3b or a plus 1b. A few people have SAID Smaok’s glove is great but those who have seen him play the most haven’t. more defensive disinformation.
there really is
no point in trying to have a fun, reasonable discussion with you is there?
I'm all for fun
i just don’t see what is fun about makng shit up about a player. I think I’m plenty reasonable.
Dear Poster
You are full of excement when describing Alonso in the field. He has some athletic limitations but they aren’t going to stop him from being a good big league 1B. So much defensive disinformation on here it is almost comical.
Mike Sheridan
Tampa’s fifth rounder out of William & Mary. I’m not saying he’s the best. Just saying keep an eye on him.
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