Drew Stubbs

by BLee2525 on Aug 23, 2008 1:34 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

Here was John's comment from the book on Stubbs:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2007/12/7/143649/622

He's since been promoted to AAA Louisville. His numbers across 3 levels:

High-A Sarasota: .261/.366/.406, 21 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 50BB, 82K, 27/35SB in 303 AB
AA Chattanooga: .315/.400/.402, 8 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 11BB, 21K, 3/4SB in 92 AB
AAA Louisville: .316/.381/.579, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 7K, 2/2 SB in 38 AB

2008 Totals: .277/.374/.420, 31 2B, 5 3B, 7 HR, 64BB, 110K, 32/41 SB in 433 AB

Obviously, sample size caveats apply to the AA/AAA numbers, but he looks to be improving the strikeout rate, which was his major red flag coming into the season, and maintaining a nice walk rate in the high minors. The power numbers aren't spectacular, however, Sarasota and Chattanooga are both pitchers' environments, and he looks to be hitting the ball with some authority thus far at AAA. He also has a tremendous defensive reputation, with some going as far as to say he could contend for a gold glove in CF today.

So, what are the projections for Stubbs now? Nice 4th OF? Ryan Sweeney with speed? Perennial .380 OBP, 20/20 leadoff hitter? Does the strikeout rate still worry you? Do you anticipate any further power development? Yeah, I know that's a lot of questions.

Just curious on people's thoughts on Stubbs now that the production appears to be catching up to his scouting reports.

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ryan sweeney actually seems like a good comparison

by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 23, 2008 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Drew Stubbs = Rocco Baldelli = enigma

My thoughts are anytime you have a player that has great speed, very good power and great defense at a premiere position – you have to be happy about it.

But like Rocco Baldelli, Drew Stubbs is an enigma. Enough tools to fill a tool shed, but can’t seem to dominate the way you would expect to be a premiere OF prospect.

Just a thought … but maybe you need to take the Jeff Samardzija route and promote him to majors for no good reason and watch him excel in disbelief.

by bryeic on Aug 23, 2008 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

With his defense, he has a high floor

Everyone who’s seen him swears up and down that he’s already one of the better defensive centerfielders in pro ball, so I have to think fourth outfielder is sort of his floor, and he has the potential to be much more with any further development to his offensive game.

by aap212 on Aug 23, 2008 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well put

Watching him play first hand in CF you realize the guy is Edmonds-esque.

by kennythered on Aug 23, 2008 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

Very intriguing player. I wouldn’t worry so much about the power numbers as he’s shown solid pop before and has made drastic improvements in making contact this year. Probably should spend a full year or close to it in AAA to consolidate his development.

What could he end up being? Hmm. A solidly above-average center fielder, probably not a true star but a very valuable player.

by mrkupe on Aug 23, 2008 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ha

To me he will be always be known as the guy the Reds took instead of Tim Lincecum. They needed pitching so badly, it was a blunder on par with John Oliver/Chad Motola/ScottBryant etc…

by pst2 on Aug 23, 2008 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey

No doubt they should have taken Lincecum or Joba or maybe even Scherzer looking at it right now but that doesn’t mean Stubbs can’t pave his own way and their is a lot of baseball all of those guys future so you never know.

by kennythered on Aug 23, 2008 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nine teams made that mistake

But it’s one of the easiest things to say in hindsight.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 23, 2008 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

Everybody said the Reds were crazy for taking Jay Bruce in 2005 when they needed pitching so badly. That one’s looking OK now.

I’d like to evaluate Stubbs on his own merit, not against they guy you think they should have taken.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Aug 23, 2008 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

Plus, as long as you get a good player with a pick it is hard to say that the pick was misused, especially since it was the #9 overall pick and not the #1. 9 teams passed on Lincecum for various reasons, some good reasons, and it isn’t like the Reds wasted a #1 overall pick by not taking the best player.. if you get a good player with the #9 overall pick you have done well, even if it might knaw at you when you think about what could’ve been.

You can play that game with every draft. Even if you don’t count dark horses and late bloomers who breakout, and you count only guys who clearly had tons of talent at the time of draft, there will always be guys who you say WTF!?
It is just how it works.

Look at Matt Weiters falling to #5 last year, I realize money was involved, but, to me, someone who had seen him play so much it seemed inexplicable that he wouldn’t be – at worst – a solid MLBer. I would’ve cut him a blank check and told him to report ASAP.

…then again when Weiters was getting recruited out of HS one major coach (apparently) didn’t go after him especially hard because he wasn’t sure if Weiters was anything more than a “good” (but not great) recruit.

It was also pretty clear from Day 1 that Ryan Braun and Evan Longoria had special bats, yet some of the geniuses at places like this were howling, when each was in AA, that they were overrated for one reason or another

Hindsight always looks 20/20

by nms on Aug 24, 2008 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs