Huh, very good question.

I think I’d take the Giants on this one, despite how much I love both of the Oakland guys. Bumgarner’s a special arm and the best prospect of the four. I still love Alderson’s command and if he can shore himself up a bit against lefties he’s going to be a very useful pitcher as well. High floor, and while I’m still a little skeptical as to what his ceiling looks like he does all the things you want a young pitcher to do and the stuff is real . . .so I’m keeping an open mind.

Anderson and Cahill are both great prospects with frontline starter potential, but at the same time it’s a very distinct possibility in my mind that they’re both “just” solid mid-rotation starters. It’s a possibility with all talented young pitchers obviously, but I think the chances there are a little higher than those of a couple of guys like Bumgarner and Alderson, who are operating well above the typical development curve for most pitching prospects.

I think Bumgarner’s the best of the four, Alderson the worst. Really, I think Law had it about right—everyone wins here. But Bumgarner has the best chance to be a lights-out, true number one starter, and it’s hard to not go with that guy.

But I will take the A’s. Cahill’s intelligence and poise are huge pluses for me, and I think his velocity could continue to go up (I could see him topping out at 95 by the time he matures). A FB with plus velocity + good sinking movement to go along with a plus change and a good curve is a solid skill set to work with, and I see him as a future top of the rotation starter. The fact that he is closer to his ceiling than any of the other prospects mentioned is just icing on the cake. While I think Bum has a great chance at being a dominant pitcher, he is just too far away from that ceiling to justify having him ahead of Cahill. I see Anderson and Alderson as equal prospects.

Its because Bumgarner’s fastball is better than any pitch Cahill can throw at this point. When you get that kind of velocity behind a pitch that is located well, it will be able to get nearly everyone out in the lower minors. If you think one pitch will allow you to get people out in the majors, think again….If that was the case, Joel Zumaya would be a dominant SP.

This is from Mr. Badler over at BA on Bumgarner’s breaking stuff:

“….The breaking ball is making some progress, but it’s still sweep, and the arm slot might always inhibit the pitch for him. And he doesn’t really need a changeup against the hitters he’s facing, so he’s only a guy with one plus pitch right now. But he’s young, so he’s a good prospect, but I’m not as enamored as others.”

considering their ages, small sample size of experience at the AA level…i think they did a solid job in a very tough and pressure packed olympics tournament.

it will be interesting to see how much more they pitch once they resume their minor league seasons

…but my whole point was that it will take time for Bumgarner to learn to effectively use his other pitches (tack on a bit more time if his arm slot does indeed hinder their progression). casejud stated that Bumgarner will have a year similar to the year Cahill had next year, and I just cant see that happening unless he works extremely hard all off season to try and tighten down those second offerings. Heck, even Poreda, who has control of a PLUS-PLUS fastball had issues in AA because his second offerings weren’t very good.

…heck, I am high on him, because he is producing so well at such a young age. I love him as a prospect, and expect great things from him if he can indeed develop his secondary offerings. I expect that to take a few years though, and even then I don’t think he will ever have the kind of pitch mix that Cahill has.