Who is the best catching prospect in baseball? My top 12

by the pinstripes on Aug 21, 2008 2:52 PM EDT

Please find a list below of several top catching prospects which I have attempted my best to rank. For the purpose of this exercise I have left out 08' draftees (which you can feel free to opine as to where they should rank on this list) as well as players that look to have graduated to the bigs.

Also, bear in mind that my rankings are based solely on fantasy value/hitting ability so whether or not they are good defensively makes no difference as I believe most leagues do not use defensive categories. However, for catchers, defensive ability does come into consideration as their ability to stay at the position comes into question.

Again, if I've left anyone else off the list whether by mistake or otherwise I'm sure I'll hear about it real soon.

1. Matt Wieters - Baltimore (22 yrs old) - .347/.449/.592 total minors - currently with AA bowie. has enormous power potential as evidenced by his 25 homers and plate discipline is outstanding with a 77/70 bb/k ratio. simply put, the best prospect in baseball.

2. Jesus Montero - New York AL (18 yrs old) - .321/.372/.494 for low A charleston - huge power potential with 16 bombs. his 35/74 bb/k ratio is not bad but could stand some improvement. huge ceiling guy, we'll see how he progresses from here as he moves up but very, very promising. hopefully, he'll be able to stay at catcher as his size is cause for concern as he's already 6'4", 225/lbs.

3. Max Ramirez - Texas (23 yrs old) - .354/.450/.646 for AA frisco - this guy can flat out mash. 17 homers in a little more than half a season w/ frisco. has shown good plate discipline as evidenced by 37/56 bb/k ratio. had a decent showing when called up to the big club and is currently on a rehab assignment. the only question here is whether or not he'll qualify at catcher.

4. Pablo Sandoval - San Francisco (22 yrs old) - .350/.394/.578 total minors - currently in the bigs before being called up from AA connecticut. another catching prospect who exploded this yr. to the tune of 20 homers. his 31/59 bb/k ratio is not bad at all and overall has acquitted himself quite nicely so far w/ the big club. very nice prospect to be sure.

5. Carlos Santana - Cleveland (22 yrs old) - .332/.434/.568 total minors - currently with high A kinston. carlos has really burst onto the scene this yr. to the tune of 18 jacks and an outstanding 81/73 bb/k ratio. i haven't heard anything negative about his ability to remain at the position. what's not to like here?

6. Tyler Flowers - Atlanta (22 yrs old) - .289/.429/.492 with high A myrtle beach - very nice power numbers with 16 long balls to go along with tremendous plate discipline as evidenced by a strong 92/91 bb/k ratio. tyler could stand to cut down on his strikeouts but that's kind of nitpicky. also considering his 6'4", 245/lb frame one would have to think he has the same concerns as Jesus Montero about staying behind the plate.

7. J.P. Arencibia - Toronto (22 yrs old) - .302/.324/.540 total minors - currently w/ AA new hampshire. kind of a mixed bag in his first professional season. on the one hand he's shown big power having already jacked 26 long balls and on the other he's shown dreadful plate discipline as evidenced by 16 walks vs. 92 k's. ouch!

8. Wilson Ramos - Minnesota (20 yrs old) - .274/.332/.425 with high A ft. myers - nice power output so far with 13 homers. could use some improving in the pd dept. with a 33/98 bb/k ratio but overall not bad considering he's played most of the season at age 20 which, for a catcher, is especially young for being in high A. i see enormous potential here. again, lots to like.

9. Angel Salome - Milwaukee (22 yrs old) - .364/.416/.560 with AA huntsville - gives new meaning to the term "mighty might". has jacked 11 homers despite his 5'7" frame (although at 195/lbs he must be considered stocky). i'm not sure he'll hit for enough power at the big league level but he sure can hit. angel also sports a decent 29/54 bb/k ratio.

10. Jonathan Lucroy - Milwaukee (22 yrs old) - .303/.377/.489 total minors - currently with high A brevard county. has shown nice power with 18 homers overall. has also shown nice plate discipline as evidenced by a 53/76 bb/k ratio although this has slipped a bit since being promoted. still a very nice prospect.

11. Taylor Teagarden - Texas (24 yrs old) - .217/.331/.378 total minors - currently assigned to AAA oklahoma but playing in the olympics for Team USA. definitely a mixed bag here. has only 8 homers on the season vs. 27 last year. he also hasn't shown any improvement in the pd dept with a 36/76 bb/k ratio. there is no question about his ability to stay behind the plate but injuries are a cause for concern as i suspect they've played a large part in his development. personally, i think he will hit as long as he stays healthy.

12. Josh Donaldson - Oakland (22 yrs old) - .271/.334/.450 total minors - currently with high A stockton. josh has defintely heated up since being traded to oakland. josh has 14 homers overall, 8 since moving to the cal league in july. his 32/63 bb/k ratio is also trending way up since the move as it went from a modest 17/41 to a very respectable15/22. we'll see if this keeps up.

HM - Bryan Anderson, Hank Conger, Lou Marson, Devin Mesoraco, John Jaso, Luis Exposito, J.R. Towles

5 recs | Comment 76 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

You can quibble about the order, but there’s a lot of catching talent in the minors right now, which I guess is a good thing, since catchers easily have the lowest rate of actually panning out. Curious as to why Anderson isn’t in the top 12. Also, I’d like to throw John Jaso’s name out there as well, as more of an HM type than a top-12er.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 21, 2008 2:57 PM EDT 0 recs

anderson

9 homers in 683 minor league at bats is the answer to that question. not very intriguing from a fantasy perspective. same goes for lou marson who does everything else very well. the lack of power is a huge, huge issue for me. thx for the post!

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Aug 21, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

AVERAGE

Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark

by knockoutking on Aug 21, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

i'm not into 1 trick ponies

also, we use OPS which i think is a much better metric than average.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Aug 21, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

right

im saying that is his one trick…

Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark

by knockoutking on Aug 27, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Have you ever noticed how similar Bryan Anderson's hitting stats

are to Andrew McCutchen’s? They’re the same age and have played at the same levels each year. Though McCutchen had more power at the start of his minor league career, they have become low strikeout, fairly high average types with a bit of power. In 2006 in A ball: Anderson: .302/.374/.417 while McCutchen did .291/.352/.446. 2006 in AA: Anderson: 298/.348/.388 while McCutch .258/.325/.383. This year, in AAA, Anderson: .285/.364/.374 while McCutchen .278/.372/.392. Obviously there are differences in terms of speed and defense, and so forth, but I just think it’s interesting that nobody would equate them

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 21, 2008 10:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

Jaso

I’m also a fan of John Jaso as well. John had him rated as a solid B before the season, and even though he repeated AA (which I thought was unusual considering he went .316/.408.484 in 380 AB last year) to start the season, his current line between AA and AAA is .281/.402/.435 with 11 HR and a 71:44 BB:K ratio. The only knock on him has been his durability, but he’s been injury-free the past two years. A catcher who walks almost twice as often as he whiffs, hits for a good average and decent power and is good defensively looks like a solid prospect to me. At 24 (turns 25 in September), he’s hardly old for AAA, and he could push for Dioner Navarro’s backup spot as early as next year. Instinctively he reminds me a bit of Mitch Meluskey, which is a good offensive ceiling for him – let’s just hope he’s not as injury prone in the majors.

by Grudyfan on Aug 22, 2008 2:37 AM EDT up 0 recs

Five minutes

Until this thread becomes a big flame way over whether Montero is a catcher or not.

PS He’s not! In fact, Goldstein said 1) that no one he has talked to who gets paid for their baseball opinion thinks Montero can stay at catcher; and 2) that everyone he’s talked to in the Yanks organization doesnt think Montero will stay at catcher.

He probably should have been on the 1B list (or LF).. and I think Id have him the #1 or #2 on the 1B list. I really think he’s a future 3-4 hitter.

by alskor on Aug 21, 2008 3:20 PM EDT 0 recs

LOL

That guy is obvioulsy not going to play Left Field dude.

I think Goldstein will be wrong (again) and Montero will stay at Catcher. He can’t be worse than Mike Piazza.

by casejud on Aug 24, 2008 10:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't think it's physically possible

Montero is really big now, and he’s going to be huge. And this isn’t Joe Mauer big or Ben Davis big. I really think he would really get hurt playing catcher long term, even if he could be adequate at it. His bat is too potentially special to mess around.

In contrast, I think Ramirez looks okay out there, and I’m not totally sold on his bat as a 1B or DH.

by aap212 on Aug 24, 2008 10:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

You are CRAZY Bud

Everything was good until you got the part about Ramirez.

What the hell does the guy have to do in th minor leagues to impress you brother?????

Hit .400 in the Texas League or something? Oh wait, he almost did that. Ramirez can hit and hit and hit and hit. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that you have some ability to spot a hitter and that you may not have seen him but, when you do… just watch him take batting practice.

He is extremely special with the bat. A little prediction from me… as high as he has bee3n ranked on here lately I think he’s gonna be one of those guys who is gonna be BETTER than everyone thinks. Like, Edgar Martinez good.

by casejud on Aug 24, 2008 10:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

I may be underrating his bat, but

I’d take that batting average with a grain of salt. His batting average on balls in play is insanely high. Edgar Martinez is a pretty extraordinary comp to throw out there.

by aap212 on Aug 24, 2008 10:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah

Edgar Martinez good is like HOF good. That’s a really strong claim to make. Not saying youre wrong, but man, you must really like this kid. Personally, Im not sold he’ll be anything more than a replacement level 1B if he were to move there. Which is still quite a hitter.. its just the bar is SOOOO high for 1B. Replacement level is typically around .275 with around 20 HRs. That’s a pretty good hitter at most positions, but not 1B or LF.

Plus, the Texas League drastically inflates offense… so hitting .400 there, well, its still damn good, and its still hitting .400… but the way you said it is kind of funny..

On Max: I love him if he’s a catcher, but if he’s not Im not sold… On Montero I am 100% sure wont stay at catcher. Its not just KG saying he thinks he wont stay there, you know… he said in a recent chat that everyone who works for the Yankees he’s talked to says Montero has no chance to stay at catcher. So its apparently not even in the teams plans to keep him there…

by alskor on Aug 25, 2008 12:08 AM EDT up 0 recs

+1

Well said.

by aap212 on Aug 25, 2008 12:11 AM EDT up 0 recs

+1 on Edgar comp

Comparing Ramirez to Edgar Martinez is just plain dumb. Edgar was a phenomenal hitter whose combination of power and average was amazing. Ramirez can be good but lets not go overboard and ignore his insane BABIP.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 25, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

So throw out those extra hits

Until this year, he looked like a .300 hitter with 20 homers and plenty of walks who could get maybe a .900 OPS. This year, he added 50 points to his batting average, but also showed 30 or even 40 HR power. You think his batting average is too high? Knock it down to .300 and what do you have – a guy who still had almost an 1000 OPS. That’s still pretty damn good.

Except there are a few other things. First of all, part of the reason his batting average spiked wasn’t simply because he got so many hits off of balls in play, but because he added an extra 15 homers. Second, one of the reasons he got so many hits was because he hit an extraordinary amount of line drives (24%), that means a lot of those balls in play should have fallen in for hits. Of course he was still lucky, but not Ben Revere lucky.

I don’t understand this concern with Ramirez. Until now, he was a .900 hitter. This year, he seems to have developed into a potential 1.000 or even higher hitter. He’s 23 years old and he’s doing that in AA and though his stats were less impressive in the majors, he seemed to be doing alright there too. When Edgar Martinez was 23, he was hitting only 6 homeruns over a full season in AA. I’m not saying Ramirez is as good as Edgar or better, but he’s certainly about as good a hitter as there is in the minor leagues today, whether he stays at catcher or not

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 25, 2008 1:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

40 HR power?

Im not seeing that… He has 62 career HRs in 1435 career minor league ABs (404 games).

His MLE, courtesy of minorleaguesplits.com would give him 12 HRs this season, though thats in less than 300 ABs, and extrapolated over a full season I could certainly see 25ish in the majors. Which for a catcher – great. For a 1B? Pretty average. Not bad at all, but nothing to get excited about.

I agree the guy will hit in the majors, but I cant agree that he’s “as good a hitter as there is in the minors today.” That’s overstating things, IMHO.

by alskor on Aug 25, 2008 1:35 AM EDT up 0 recs

Well

You’re certainly right that until this year, he did not appear to have more than 20 HR power. This year, however, he hit 17 HRs in 243 ABs, (not to mention 2 in 43 major league abs, and 1 in 8 AAA ABs – altogether, that’s 20 in 291 ABs). At that rate, it would take him about 580 ABs (albeit in AA) to hit 40 HRs. It’s possible that this year is an aberration, that it was a career year. Considering he’s 23, I’m wary of that argument. I’m not saying that he’ll hit 40 HRs in the majors, but I think that is a reasonable ceiling, and 30 HRs is definitely within reach. If you prefer to say 25, though, I won’t argue the point.

You’re right that 25 HRs by themselves wouldn’t be that impressive for a 1B or a DH. When you combine that with a .300+ batting average and plenty of walks, though, those power numbers begin to seem significantly more appealing. If you want to compare him to Edgar Martinez, for example, the comparison isn’t entirely off-base. When Martinez was terrific (a period which, it should be noted, only began when he was 29), he hit 25-30 HRs with 100 walks and a .330 batting average. Ramirez, we’ve agreed, has similar power capabilities. Walk totals generally – though not always – increase as a player gets older, and Ramirez is already a 75-80 walk person in the minors. He easily has the potential to be a .300 hitter in the majors. I think a reasonably conservative prediction for Ramirez would be Edgar Martinez minus 30 points in batting average and 20 or so walks. Such a player wouldn’t be a superstar, but would still have plenty of value, even at DH.

As for being about as good a hitter as there is in the minors today, how many people would you say are better?

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 25, 2008 1:58 AM EDT up 0 recs

Pretty much anyone can play LF

Its the second least demanding position besides 1B

by alskor on Aug 24, 2008 11:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

In theory...

you are right but in actual, big league baseball it just doesn’t work. A guy who can’t move or catch a ball out there will just KILL you if you are trying to win. Montero will NEVER play any LF in the big leagues.

by casejud on Aug 25, 2008 12:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

Look around the league

Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, Raul Ibanez, Garrett Anderson, Jack Cust, etc…

These guys are just terrible fielders. Just terrible. Truly awful. Costing their teams between 1 and 2 wins (10-20 runs) a year on defense. Manny and Dunn costing more (30-40 runs?) probably, since they let a gazillion balls drop in front of them, . Some just suck and many of them are elderly. All of them can’t move or catch a ball out there. LF is a place where most teams hide a bat with no glove and has always been.

I agree with your point and dont think there is much of a chance Montero ends up there, but it is a possibility, IMHO. Please understand that I was just throwing it out there as a remote chance thing.

Montero could probably provide better defense than any of those guys I listed above. Of course, there’s no chance the Yankees would ever let him play LF in cavernous Yankee Stadium… Im just saying, LF is place where guys who cant catch go. I immediately thought of Adam Dunn as a comp because of the size…

by alskor on Aug 25, 2008 1:23 AM EDT up 0 recs

OK

Anderson has always been a good LF, Sheffiels also has been good until recently, Ramirez is lazy but he makes some good plays, Dunn isn’t really all that terrible, I see Ibanez 100 times a year and he isn’t very good but he limits his mistakes, Jack Cust is about the worst of your group there.

I still think Montero would be worse than any of those guys.

by casejud on Aug 25, 2008 5:37 AM EDT up 0 recs

Also

I dont think Max Ramirez will stick at catcher, and Im very pessimistic about Arencibia’s chance to stay healthy. Id bump Teagarden up despite his poor showing this year, and I think I like Donaldson a little better than you.

As for someone you left out… well, Detroit’s James Skelton looks good… but who knows that to make of him… I cant make up my mind.

by alskor on Aug 21, 2008 3:25 PM EDT 0 recs

agree

with much of that except Ramirez staying at Catcher. Another guy who I saw play a couple games and looked fine…certainly not a liability.

Agree on Teagarden. Don’t care about his offense this year. I KNOW he can Catch and throw… take a walk… hit for some pop. At least as good a big leaguer as Laird.

Skelton is sure INTERESTING at least. A truly unique player. It will be interesting to see if he can still get on base so much without much pop in the big leagues. I have my doubts but I like him.

by casejud on Aug 24, 2008 10:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

and how often

have you seen him play?

by Travis G on Aug 27, 2008 3:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

oops

meant in response to the above comment that Montero is worse than any LFer.

by Travis G on Aug 27, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

Carlos Santana

I have been extremely pleased to say the least. He showed that his breakout is for real moving into more of a pitchers league. There’s no question about his bat so far, but defensively he’s still a little bit raw from what I’ve read. This is just his 2nd year behind the plate, so he still needs some refinement. His arm is supposedly very strong (throwing out just 26% this year, but he’s 7 for 13 for the Tribe and caught 38% basestealers in 07) and BA reports that he moves well with a knack for blocking balls. There’s no reason to move him to another position, so eventually he could become the next Victor Martinez with a better arm.

by JP_Frost on Aug 21, 2008 3:29 PM EDT 0 recs

would...

you say his best work was with rob thomas?

by son.of.sourman on Aug 21, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Luis Exposito

Luis Exposito from Lancaster (Boston) is having a breakout season. The numbers look great. He’s batting .295/.327/.511 9HRs in Lancaster, but that’s tempered by Cal league effects. He started the year in Greenville and hit .283/.328/.508 w/ 11HRs. Exposito is a big dude who was expected to develop decent power. He’s also an excellent defensive catcher w/a cannon arm. He’s 21 years old and was a 31st round draft pick out of JuCo in 2005.

I dont know that I would put him on this list, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on.

by alskor on Aug 21, 2008 3:33 PM EDT 0 recs

nice! ..

that’s just what i needed to see. another up & coming sox prospect.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Aug 21, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

I am happy to see him doing well..I take a flyer on him in a deal in a Sim League. I have followed him and he seems an intriguing guy. think he begins next year in Lancaster or moves up to Portland?

by NYSOX on Aug 28, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up 0 recs

Wellington Castillo

Should definitely be in the top 12. Here’s a superb defensive catcher that has shown that he’ll be more than say, Henry Blanco, offensively. I think Castillo is a borderline top 100 possibility considering the type of year he has put together at age 21 in the Southern League.

by toonsterwu on Aug 21, 2008 4:08 PM EDT 0 recs

disagree on castillo

4 homers in 300 ab’s. 16 walks vs. 68 strikeouts. which of the top 12 should he bump?

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Aug 21, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

how bout

a bunch of those listed in those top 12 aren’t sticking at catcher, starting at the top with Montero. Ramirez, Salome, Lucroy, and Donaldson are all iffy to stick at catcher. Does Wellington have the bat of some of the guys on the list? No. But by most accounts, he is arguably one of the top 3 defensive catchers in the minors and will at least provide passable offense, with most expectations being that his bat will improve a little bit more. His offensive improvement this year happened probably a year earlier than anyone really expected. His 11 doubles in 179 AB’s show a bit more pop in the bat.

Now, if we are simply talking about anyone that is donning the gear at catcher … then fine, I can buy a case where he’s not top 12. But … again, he is arguably, by most accounts, one of the premier defensive catchers in the minors right now, and having shown enough of a bat, I think he deserves to be on a top 12 list, at worst, on the HM roll call.

by toonsterwu on Aug 21, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

in saying all this

I understand that the OP is focusing more on fantasy value. Even so, I think Castillo would at least be on the HM list from a fantasy offensive perspective.

by toonsterwu on Aug 21, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

From my understanding....

Lucroy has a very good chance to stay at catcher. His defense is only average right now, but he is working hard to make it better and has stated that he knows it’s his glove and not his hitting that will get him to the majors.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Aug 21, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up 1 recs

Yeah, Lucroy's not "iffy" to stick at catcher at all

Neither is Salome, in that he really doesn’t have anywhere else to play. Catch or die!

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Aug 21, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

There's a reason

why catcher has the highest attrition rate, and it’s not entirely to do with knees and shoulders. A LOT of catchers don’t stick at catcher, but quite a few former catchers still manage to carve out good MLB careers at other positions (see: Carlos Delgado, Craig Biggio, BJ Surhoff, etc.)

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 25, 2008 10:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

is he better on defense than teagarden?

probably not

Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark

by knockoutking on Aug 21, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

giants catchers

This could be interesting in a few years. There’s Sandoval, as you mentioned, and Posey, I believe, is thought to be a quick mover. Of course, he hasn’t started pro ball yet, so there aren’t any minor league stats to go on. If Sandoval plays first, then Ishikawa/Bowker is out of a spot.

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Aug 21, 2008 4:09 PM EDT 0 recs

Travis D'Arnaud

Another catching prospect to keep and eye on is Travis D’Arnaud. While Marson is also in the system, I think D’Arnaud has the potential to be even better.

by dlanod115 on Aug 21, 2008 4:31 PM EDT 0 recs

+1

I’d probably put both Phillies in the top 12.

by aap212 on Aug 22, 2008 9:36 AM EDT up 0 recs

I think it is another good list but

it is supposed to be for catchers and your 2 and 3 cannot catch a cold. Both are DHs who are listed as catchers and either should be rated lower or eliminated from the list.

by sdtribefan on Aug 21, 2008 5:15 PM EDT 0 recs

Wieters

He’s actually at AA Bowie (unless something has changed in the last couple days) and has been mashing there for a while.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Aug 21, 2008 5:38 PM EDT 0 recs

Response

At least 4-5 of your catchers are not really catchers and that’s just at the moment, so I’m not sure how much fantasy value one can derive from this . . .

by mrkupe on Aug 21, 2008 5:47 PM EDT 0 recs

you're right, i'll make the change

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Aug 21, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

this was supposed to be under marcello's post

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Aug 21, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

4 or 5?

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Aug 21, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

Response

Montero
Ramirez
Sandoval
Flowers
Arencibia (maybe, although defense has improved)
Donaldson (maybe, may play 3B)

by mrkupe on Aug 21, 2008 6:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

Flowers is big

But his defense is fine. He’s really blossomed as a prospect this year.

by gogotabata on Aug 21, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

agree. it is widely believed that flowers receiving skills are fine and that he ins fact the best receiver in the system. Only his size makes people think he isn’t really a catcher, but I submit to you Brian McCann and Joe Mauer.

by yondaime4 on Aug 22, 2008 1:35 AM EDT up 0 recs

Max Ramirez might

particularly if the Rangers decide to trade him

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 21, 2008 6:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sandoval is absolutely a catcher. The Giants left him in San Jose much longer than he needed to be there so he could work on his catching with Steve Decker, who’s the manager there. He’s playing a significant amount of infield right now because the Giants are desperate for a platoon partner for their lefty 1B, or for anything at 3B (apparently).

Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.

by groug on Aug 23, 2008 4:37 AM EDT up 0 recs

Frank Cervelli deserves a mention

just came off the DL after Elliot Johnson ran into him in ST. Good OBP guy with a great defensive reputation.

by number_twentyone on Aug 21, 2008 9:44 PM EDT 0 recs

Definitely

He might have helped a great deal this year at the MLB level given Posada’s injury… it would have been a longshot, I suppose, but I could see it.

by alskor on Aug 21, 2008 10:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Peak Translations From BP

Here are the Peak Translations from BP for almost everyone mentioned, which is to say a pretty good assessment of the year at the plate adjusted for league, park, and, most importantly, age. Guys who have played at 2 levels have had their lines combined simply, weighted by (AB+BB), without extra weight for the more advanced league. (If you did give extra weight, you would also want to do first-half / last-half splits for unpromoted guys, which data we don’t have.)

Some baselines: an EqA of .260 is MLB average; catchers (including backups) average .247; prospects who move to 1B / DH lose 33 points of value, essentially.

Omitted: Towles (no longer a prospect), D’Arnaud (no translations for short season ball), Cervelli (not enough PT).

Name, Rate, OP
1. Wieters, Matt, .324, 1
2. Ramirez, Max, .319, 3
3. Montero, Jesus, .317, 2
4. Sandoval, Pablo, .315, 4
5. Santana, Carlos, .305, 5
6. Salome, Angel, .300, 9
7. Flowers, Tyler, .292, 6
8. Skelton, James, .289, —
9. Marson, Lou, .287, HM
10. Exposito, Luis, .283, —
t11. Lucroy, Jonathan, .278, 10
t11. Arencibia, J.P., .278, 7
t11. Ramos, Wilson, .278, 8
t11. Anderson, Bryan, .278, HM
15. Conger, Hank, .264, HM
16. Jaso, John, .260, —
17. Mesoraco, Devin, .254, HM
18. Castillo, Wellington, .246, —
19. Teagarden, Taylor, .234, 11
20. Donaldson, Josh, .228, 12

by emvan on Aug 22, 2008 5:36 AM EDT 0 recs

Stupid question

Does this mean how they did this year, or how well they can do?

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 22, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up 0 recs

It’s a projection of what they will do in their prime, based solely on this year’s stats.

by dkdc on Aug 22, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up 0 recs

The latter

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Aug 22, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

First-half/second-half splits

That data is available in multiple places, including milb.com and minorleaguesplits.com. Am I not understanding what you mean?

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Aug 22, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

Raw Data, Yes

But we don’t have peak translations from BP for first half and second half stats. And, as I understand it, their algorithm is not a simple one, in that they weight the hitting components separately rather than just plugging age, level and RC/27 into a single formula.

by emvan on Aug 26, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Response

Yeah, I’m going to be a skeptic on this one. The top 17 catching prospects are projected to be above-average producers offensively?

I’m aware of the limitations of this statistic (only based off of this year’s stats), but this seems so far off what we can really expect from these guys that I’m having trouble using it to make any assumptions with confidence.

by mrkupe on Aug 22, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's a measure of upside.

by aap212 on Aug 22, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's All Relative

The number of guys in MLB having good seasons at any one time is probably greater than the number who can be counted on to be consistently good. Some of the guys on this list may be having fluke years.

I think the list is helpful for one reason and one reason only: it combines the factors of raw stats, league and park effects, level, and age into once convenient number which represents performance relative to all of that. As prospect hounds we are used to looking at a slash line and then mentally going, yeah, hitter’s league, but pitcher’s park, and he’s a little young for the league — whereas this other guy is in a hitter’s park in a pitcher’s league but is old for the league. Who really had the more impressive year, given all of that? So it’s helpful to combine and nail down all of these factors to the best of our (well, Clay Davenport’s) ability.

by emvan on Aug 26, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

Ha

Makes me feel good about mentioning Skelton and Exposito as two guys who were left off

by alskor on Aug 23, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

Adam Moore

Granted he’s a little bit old (though generally not by catching prospect standards) but Adam Moore has to be on the periphery of top catching prospects, especially after his bat came along for the ride to Double-A West Tennessee this season. (.311/.390/.490, IsoP .179) Unlike a few others on the list, Moore’s defense is a plus which suggests he could possibly supplant Jeff Clement as the primary catcher in Seattle down the road.

by ThomasG on Aug 22, 2008 1:07 PM EDT 0 recs

Moore....

I actually heard the opposite about his defense. I heard he was a butcher and his move away from catching would be inevitable. I have never seen him play so it’s all second-hand knowledge though.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Aug 22, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

It’s Funny

I’ve noticed a large split in opinion on Moore. Either people think he’s a slightly-to-moderately above-average defensive C or he’s a complete butcher in the field.

FWIW, I’ve seen more positive comments come from those inside the game while a portion of the negative ones seem to assumptively downgrade his defense because of how good his bat is. I’d be interested to see what John thinks.

by ThomasG on Aug 22, 2008 2:01 PM EDT 0 recs

Moore's defense

From what I’ve heard is that he’s been working with the dude who’s turned Clement’s defense from abysmal to passable. But he is better defensively than Clement. Plus, he tore up the Cal league last year at 307/371/543. Most people wanted to see what he could do outside of High Desert before putting him on the prospect map. I think he answered those questions.

by Paul5418 on Aug 23, 2008 11:18 PM EDT up 0 recs