Who is the best first base prospect in baseball? My top 10
by the pinstripes on Aug 20, 2008 10:17 AM EDT
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PrintPlease find a list below of several top first base prospects which I have attempted my best to rank. For the purpose of this exercise I have left out 08' draftees (which you can feel free to opine as to where they should rank on this list) as well as players that look to have graduated to the bigs seemingly to stay a la Chris Davis.
Also, bear in mind that my rankings are based solely on fantasy value/hitting ability so whether or not they are good defensively makes no difference as I believe most leagues do not use defensive categories.
There are also players who are question marks as to whether or not they will end up playing first such as Matt LaPorta, Jesus Montero & Max Ramirez to name a few. I've left those off the list as well. If I've left anyone else off the list whether by mistake or otherwise I'm sure I'll hear about it real soon.
1. Lars Anderson - Boston (20 yrs old) - .324/.420/.538 total minors - has jacked 5 homers since moving up to AA, 18 overall. power starting to emerge along w/ very good plate discipline as evidenced by 64/93 bb/k ratio.
2. Frederick Freeman - Atlanta (18 yrs old) - .325/.388/.540 for low A rome - huge power potential with 18 jacks. his 46/76 bb/k ratio is also very promising. huge ceiling guy, we'll see how he progresses from here as he moves up but very, very promising.
3. Christopher Marrero - Washington (20 yrs old) - .250/.325/.453 for high A potomac - had an atrocious month of april but started to heat up in may/june. jacked 11 homers in less than half a season before going down w/ injury. 25/55 bb/k ratio could also use some improvement but i've seen worse.
4. Logan Morrison - Florida (20 yrs old) - .339/.409/.512 for high A jupiter - huge breakout season. he certainly vaulted himself into one of the better 1b prospects in baseball with 13 homers (factor in his home park is not so favorable in the power dept.) and solid plate discipline. 53/73 bb/k ratio
5. Beau Mills - Cleveland (22 yrs old) - .296/.376/.515 for high A kinston - huge power potential with 21 homers on the yr. after a very slow start he's come on strong in july .936 ops & august 1.073 ops. could stand to improve in the pd dept. w/ 52 bb vs. 101 k's.
6. Kila Ka'aihue - Kansas City (24 yrs old) - .319/.459/.634 total minors - currently in AAA playing for omaha. what can i say, 34 homers, 94 walks vs. 64 k's. i feel like he could be #1 on this list. to say he's broken out would be an understatement. could this be the real deal? in terms of coming out of nowhere could he be geovany soto, part deux!
7. Angel Villalona - San Francisco (17 yrs old) - .254/.302/.416 for low A augusta - aside from the 14 homers baby v has been pretty disappointing. his 18/112 bb/k ratio is definitely cause for concern. personally, i think he's overweight and overrated. we'll see.
8. Mike Carp - New York NL (22 yrs old) - .293/.393/.471 for AA binghampton - having a very solid season w/ 17 homers, 4 coming in the last 10 games. seems to be a streaky hitter but another 1b w/ excellent plate discipline. 68/81 bb/k ratio. still a bit underrated perhaps?
9. Sean Doolittle - Oakland (22 yrs old) - .290/.361/.512 total minors - currently playing in AA for midland. has struggled a bit upon being promoted but has come around over the last 10 games or so. there's no question he has plenty of power but must improve on plate discipline as evidenced by already striking out 138 times vs. 57 walks.
10. Brandon Snyder - Baltimore (21 yrs old) - .308/.353/.484 for high A frederick - brandon is having a nice season so far w/ 12 homers. as is the case w/ most prospects he needs to improve his pd w/ a ratio of 27/76 bb/k.
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I think Travis Ishikawa who is currently up with the Giants deserves some attention.
He’s had a resurgent season hitting .299/.377/.578/ with 24 homers between AA Connecticut (a notorius pitchers’ park) and AAA Fresno.
He’s currently hitting .300/.364/.550 with 1 homer through his first 20 at bats in the show
He also is supposed to have a J.T. Snow like glove at first.
Just based on one game that I saw last night....
He made two pretty horrendous errors, a third play that could have been called an error, and generally looked terrified in the field.
The A's colors are green and gold.
He is reputed to be excellent defensively, so perhaps you caught him on a bad night?
by RougeGorrila on Aug 24, 2008 3:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Lars
Lars is doing amazing this season and has shown the ability to hit for both average and power. The hitter with the most potential on the list is Villalona but he is still VERY far away and a lot can still go right or wrong with him from a development perspective.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 20, 2008 10:43 AM EDT reply actions
+1
It would be much better if you edit the fanpost to reflect these stats.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 20, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
done
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Aug 20, 2008 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
missing the boat on brandon allen
the power/speed combo is pretty rare at 1B – i’d have him in the #3-6 range
and i think you are severely under-rating Big V – considering his age i don’t think he’s been a disappointment at all
good job overall
big v
i certainly recognize that he has a huge ceiling. no doubt about it. however, he has a long, long way to go imo. what is also a huge concern for me is his conditioning. the guy moves like a snail right now. i can’t imagine what he’ll look like in 2-3 yrs as he continues to fill out. i guess if he ends up w/ power like cecil fielder it won’t matter much.
as for brandon allen i certainly did overlook him but i’m not sure i’d slot him at #3-6. In fact, I’d probably put him at #9 ahead of Doolittle & Snyder.
Thanks for the post!
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Aug 20, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I wonder
Have you ever seen Villalona play in person? Have you ever listened to the games on MiLB.com? Did you see him at the Futures Game? Conditioning is a huge concern?
From someone who has seen him play. He is really not terribly over weight. He is a big kid naturally but certainly not fat and he looks to have been working on his conditioning. That said, he will need to be aware of his conditioning through the duration of his career but how many MLBers don’t? He certainly does not move like a snail. He is actually extremely athletic for a dude as big as he is. Actually, he is athletic enough that a number of Giants officials have said a move back to 3b might be in the near future.
As far as his bat goes, let’s be patient with the kid. He is 18. This is his first full year playing pro ball. He is learning. The fact that he is holding his own and showing some serious power in a league full of guys who are 2, 3, maybe even 4 years older than him is a major accomplishment.
So, disappointment? No. Fat? Not quite. Snail? Not at all. Young kid learning the game while at times seeming in over his head? Yes, absolutely. Highest ceiling prospect in the Giants system and perhaps the game? I think so.
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
+1
Also, he just turned 18. What he has done this year in Low A was primarily as a 17 year old.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 20, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I have seen him in person
My first thought when I saw him was ’He’s not fat like I’ve read about for so long’. When you see him he looks very “sturdy” from the waist to his knees, and his upper body looks less muscular. But that leg strength will serve him well in the long term, and once his upper body fills out, good gracious is he going to be strong. He doesn’t resemble Prince or Cecil really in any way. He looks like Frank Thomas or a slightly heavier version of Mark McGwire when they were younger.
He actually looked reasonably quick when I saw him on some balls in the field. He’s slow around the bases, but he’ll be jogging most of the time anyway :)
response
i have seen villalona play. what i saw was a clod running to first. maybe he had something in his pants that day. i dunno. as for the fat comment maybe that was a bit overstated as he doesn’t strike me as that so much as he is awkward. kinda reminds me of baby huey. i kid. i kid.
anyway, i’m not saying he’s not an excellent prospect with a monstrous ceiling. he has that in spades. however, i’d love to see numbers a little bit closer to mr. freeman’s before we annoint him the second coming.
p.s. i have him on 2 of my teams so i pray he develops into a monster.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Aug 20, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Can you give me more info on Brandon Allen?
I am not too familiar with him and was wondering if you could give me a quick scouting report on him. Thanks!!!
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 20, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Brandon Allen
Brandon is a big 1B in the White Sox organization…….and when i say big, i mean muscle bound – he could have played LB in Division 1A, but choose baseball instead…….he can move for his size though, as evidenced by the SB’s
He’s had a slow progression since being drafted out of HS in ’04, but seems to have found his feet this season…..he repeated Low A in ’07 and put up a .283/.337/.483 line…….in ’08 he started the year at High A and was bumped to AA last month, without slowing down – combined line is .275/.370/.531
so this year the power is up and the walk rate is up – two big signs that he’s breaking out……….he still needs to cut down on the K’s, but we’re looking at big power potential here
and further to that
he went deep again tonight – #8 in AA (in about 110 AB’s) and #23 overall
Chris Carter - OAK
I think Chris Carter is top 5 fantasy 1st baseman.
Not many guys have 30-40 HR pop. He isn’t going to hit for high avg. but neither does some of the biggest hitters. He will be a level by level guy so he wont be in the show till late 2010, but the power isn’t Cal League inflated.
IMO – A way better prospect than Doolittle. I think Doolittle’s numbers were Cal League inflated and his more realistic numbers are being seen at AA.
Carter is no longer playing first to the best of my knowledge
Yes, he most certainly would rank up there if he was and I agree he’s a way better fantasy prospect than Doolittle.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Aug 20, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Great Post BTW
i would like it if John or someone like you did this position by position. Would create a lot of debate and is really interesting to hear everyones opinion across the US on guys they have seen or follow.
I plan on it, catchers are next
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Aug 20, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
none of the Mets
Carp/Evans/Murphy can break the top 10?
umm, Carp is #8 on my list
I even gave him an underrated?
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Aug 20, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
In addition...
Murphy isn’t really a first basman and Evans is a platoon man in my eyes.
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 22, 2008 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
The Mets guys are overrated
And I say that as a Mets fan. I just don’t see the upside. Carp, especially. His hot start was just an unsustainably high batting average due to an insane BABIP. He doesn’t have enough of a bat for me to be confident he can be a middle of the order bat, which means he can’t be one of the elite 1B prospects.
Disagree
Murphy and Evans are generally badly underrated.
Evans had a .926 OPS this year in AA with nearly all of that power to the opposite field. And that included an .841 OPS vs RHP; no reason to think he’ll have to platoon. He’s struggled a bit in MLB, especially vs. RH power pitchers who can bust him inside, but he’s only 22. There’s big upside if he can adjust.
And Murphy will only have about 20 HR power, but he can also be one of the better pure hitters in baseball. No supersar tools there, but he should easily be an above average MLB bat. That’s not bad upside.
As for Carp, the high BABIP though is simply an indication of how hard he hits the ball. BABIP is mostly luck for pitchers; for hitters it is mostly skill. Especially for a player like Carp with a low GB% and little speed. His biggest problem may be conditioning. Check out these position spltis this year:
AB Avg OPS
281 .338 .969 as 1B/DH
168 .232 .697 as LF
Carp has been hard to judge because of his inconsistency. He has been hot again for the last month (1.034 OPS), so his numbers are looking better. I’d still like to see better than an XBH per 11.9 PA for the season, so I’m not convinced he’s there yet, but he does clearly have the potential to be a middle of the lineup bat. So far though he isn’t looking better than a James Loney type hitter.
Best 1B prospects might not be playing 1B yet
Let’s also remember that guys like Chris Davis, Chris Carter, Mat Gamel, Brett Wallace, and Jesus Montero are almost all going to end up at first, and I’d take all of them over Carp, Snyder, and several others.
Matt LaPorta as well.
I think Davis is up for good at this point. I thought I read a poster say in a different thread that Chris Carter was playing some third base. Anyone know what’s up with that? As for Wallace is he not projected to stay at 3b?
Also, I suspect the Brewers will have to find another position for Gamel as I’m sure he’ll be ready before Prince gets moved. LaPorta & Montero are probably the safest bets to move to 1b and that being the case would move into the top 3 or so on this list IMO.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Aug 20, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Really good post
I think Gaby Sanchez belongs in the Top 10 …. maybe Top 5? Maybe at #7 with Villalona a little higher. Doolittle and Mills are always going to strike out a ton, but it shouldn’t matter. Especially in Mills’ case.
I think you have done
a very nice evaluation. If I were to place the top three, in no particular order, I would choose Anderson, Morrison and Mills but that is quibbling. As an Indian fan, I would not be surprised to see Mills moved to the OF and either LaPorta or Weglarz winding up at 1B. Eventually, you will probably see all three in Cleveland but what position each will play is speculation at this point.
2008 draftees?
I know you said originally that you left these guys off, but the 08 draft was so deep at 1B that a top 10 with them will look completely different than the one you presented above. Guys like Hosmer, Alonso and Smoak all would be on the top 10, and you might even be able to argue that Ike Davis belongs too (behind Angel but ahead of Kila).
feel free
to comment on each individually and where they should slot in. when all is said and done i could add these players in w/ a notation. i was hoping for some input on these guys which is why i left them off the original list in the first place.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Aug 20, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I’d put Smoak #1, Hosmer #3 and Alonso #4. Freeman then drops to #5. I would also put Ike Davis at #10, with Kila, Carp, Doolittle and Snyder all dropping off.
and you base this on....?
let’s see them complete a full minor league season before putting anyone in a draft class into a top 10 positional list….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Aug 20, 2008 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I suppose...
… that you didn’t have Wieters in your top 10 catcher prospects this time last year. How’s that working out for you?
Or David Price...
or Licecum or Longoria the year before that. it happens EVERY year but some dont learn.
there is a REASON College studs go to the SAL or the MID and are one of the best in the league….the were alreadfy playing at a sililar level in MAY!!
so one or two out of each draft class
mean there are three guys at one position that deserve that sort of ranking already? i have trouble believing that….
not saying it couldn’t be true at all….just that i’d have trouble thinking that there are 3 guys worthy of a top ten in all of baseball from one draft class before they ever play a full season….now a guy playing in a full season league already certainly deserves notice….but if a guy’s still working through rookie ball against international signees and the like, i have trouble elevating him to stud level yet until he’s had to endure facing more advanced pitching/hitting….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Aug 20, 2008 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions
his defense, this was an extremely strong class for 1B and
with the weak C crop out there you can make the same can at Catcher.
As far as rankings go, Davis would have to be #1 if he still is elligable just because he had better numbers than Anderson. Remebers alot of Lars Anderson’s grat numbers where put up in the Cal league that is a noted hitters league.
I would then go Anderson, Smoak, Mills and then Alonso…
Most of this is beacue of league and age.
Sure
But you are talking about High School guys. They are the ones to be sceptical of…. guys like Alonso, Smoak, Cooper, Dykstra, have already acomplished somer things in my mind. I am sceptical of Hosmer somewhat just for the reasons you say.
understood
but if a college guy is only going against the 16 y/o signees from this summer during his pro debut, shouldn’t there be a little wait-and-see attitude?
i loved wieters’ route last year of playing fall/winter ball….then you’re playing typically against more advanced competition and usually against guys who are sent where they are to make an impression, so they’re giving it their all….a guy coming off a stellar arizona league or hawaii league would catch my eye a lot more than a guy coming off a stellar month in rookie ball after he signed…..that’s just me, i guess….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Aug 21, 2008 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I guess where i differ is that the college guys catch my eye from what they did in COLLEGE. I accept the level of play there for what it is, adjust for the metal bats, the league, the park and make an evaluatiopn. It isn’t ALWAYS accurate but it is just as telling as what a guy did in say, the California league.
If you just LOOKED at Yonder Alonso’s season at Miami, for example, as a season in short season ball with slightly older and better players than in the NWL you wouldn’t have any problem sticking him appropriatly on a list.
I don’t have a problem with being sceptical. What annots me is the SEPARATION in evaluating recently drafted college guys on here. They are just as advanced as HS guys drafted 3 years before and for the sake of looking at the best prospects they should be looked at like that or any list just isnt interesting or accurate to me.
2008
If you are going to mention Ike Davis you would have to put David Cooper’s name up there in front of his, as Cooper’s performance so far has been much better than Ike Davis.
+1 with addition
Brett Wallace would belong ahead of Davis and Cooper. He’s technically a 3B now, but he’s 250 pounds and terrible there. He will be a 1B.
Logan
I’d prolly list him higher, and I think you could make a great case for him being #1. But I’d like to note that he really should be listed at 20 as he mainly played at the age the whole year. Lars for example listed as 20 is only 1 month younger.
This years 1b crop from draft might be better than any in minors
Smoak, Hosmer, and Alonso.
Snyder?
IMHO, Snyder is very questionable for even a top 30 1B prospects list. I’ve seen him play, and he looks like a born DH, which is what he is already in most games. So, his bat is his ticket to the bigs, and, while his bat seems OK, it doesnt look nearly strong enough to be an everyday 1B/DH in MLB. I dont see him making any impact in the bigs.
Oh yeah, I’m an O’s fan. I can only hope I’m wrong.
Response
Geez, that’s depressing. I remember the scouting reports on him coming out of high school . . .a catcher with good athleticism, played some shortstop but projected as a possible 3B if not a backstop. Went to short-season ball and tore it up with big numbers and great plate discipline, then started getting hurt and things fell apart.
Obviously the shoulder injury has crippled his ability to project at a lot of positions defensively . . .but even still, the years and injuries have apparently not been kind to him in other ways.
At least the numbers are starting to look up for the kid. Statistically he’s been a monster for the last few months.
Re:
His 1st 2 pro years were forgettable. Then:
2007 (20 y/o Lo-A) – .283 .354 .422 23Doub 11HR 58RBI 44BB 107K in 448 AB
2008 (21 y/o. Hi-A) – .308 .353 .484 30Doub 12HR 75RBI 27BB 76K in 399 AB
So, improvement this year but .837 OPS in an age-appropriate league for a DH-type doesnt scream top prospect. I actually still like Rowell more even w his struggles this year. If I were the O’s, I’d have Rowell repeat Hi-A to try to increase his confidence in his hitting.
Response
Snyder had an awesome 2005 debut. Then sucked in 2006 but spent most of that time dealing with a major shoulder injury. I have no clue how his arm plays now but I assume that if he’s at 1B there are good reasons for that.
The numbers are decent and keep getting better over time, though. I can’t say he’s thrilling but he’s certainly not stagnating.
As for Rowell . . .how can he not repeat? He was passable last year and has pretty much fallen off a cliff this year numbers-wise. He can’t hit lefties at all even in his second year in A ball. Scouting reports on his defense go from workable to wretched. I mean . . .we all knew he was very young and very raw coming out of high school despite the short-season statistical illusion, but I see very little of redeeming value here.
Rowell's D
I heard the reports about Rowell’s defense and he does make a lot of errors. But have you seen him play yourself? I’ve seen him play 3 times, and I didnt see anything that leads me to believe he cant stick at 3B. I thought he looked good there, altho he did make an error the last time I saw him. And he isnt the 1st 19 y/o IF propsect that has made a lot of errors. Remember, he is 2 years young for his league. I think the O’s have been too aggressive in promoting him. Another year at Hi-A in no way means he is a failed prospect.
Rowell's D
I’ve seen him play this year too, but I completely disagree. He has a cannon, but his reactions are slow, and he doesn’t have good hands. He reminds me a ton of Aubrey Huff from a defensive standpoint. His bat will carry him and he should bounce around 3rd, 1st, RF, and DH.
Very, very small sample size
The Hawaiian league also notoriously has weaker pitchers than hitters.
Throwing shoulder is fine
Snyder injured his left shoulder. The O’s chose to play him at 1B/DH to make sure he didn’t reinjure it in any home plate collisions, and also to remove extra distractions while he tried to show that he could actually hit like a first rounder. Now that he’s reestablished himself as a hitter the team is considering moving him to a more difficult position where his bat might play better.
What will limit him is not his arm, but his feet; when describing his speed, the comparisons sloth, slug, and glacier spring to mind. This is why his father advised him to move from SS to C in high school. Obviously switching to catcher is not going to get him a starting job in Baltimore, and playing the outfield would stir up unpleasant memories of Larry Sheets, so expect to see Snyder playing a lot of 3B in Bowie next year while Billy Rowell reflects on his Hall of Fame future as he repeats Frederick.
do i not recall hearing he may move back to C next season?
i thought i read something about how the o’s might try to shift him back to C, if his shoulder has truly recovered from the surgery………i’ll see if i can find it
if true, that would obviously be a boom to his value
Kyle Blanks
Age 21 season at a pitcher’s park in AA:
.313/.393/.494 with a 79:48 K:BB ratio.
After getting adjusted to AA, from June on he’s hit .332/.396/.570.
by GoGorath on Aug 22, 2008 11:57 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I understand the way you did it,
But for my own gratification:
If you included Davis (MLB) Smoak (2008 Draftee) and Ramirez (position change) then, based on your fantasy/offense requirements, you would be looking at 3 Rangers in the top 5 with Davis #1, Smoak #2-3, and Ramirez #3-5. Though in a perfect world Davis figures out how to be an average defensive 3B, Ramirez sticks at Catcher/DH, and Smoak flies through the system and brings his gold glove caliber defense at 1B.
"Here comes the version of Benoit that lets the other team put it out of reach. I hate that version."
-Athos
dumb...
Where’s Kyle Blanks?
If not top 10, he’s in the honorable mention – EASY!
Rookie (AZL) @ 18 yrs old: .299/.420/.500
Low-A (Fort Wayne) @ 19: .292/.382/.455
High-A (Lake Elsinore) @ 20: .301/.380/.540
AA (San Antonio) @ 21: .312/.391/.488
Comparable numbers to Ryan Howard at levels despite being younger…
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