Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects in Review

by John Sickels on Aug 20, 2008 10:00 AM EDT

This list was first posted on January 6th, 2008. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST!!! THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND OLD GRADES!!!!!!

1) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Grade A-
     .275/.371/.391 with 30 steals for Triple-A Indianapolis. More patience this year, power is still struggling a bit. Would reduce to B+.
2) Steven Pearce, OF-1B, Grade B+
     .258/.310/.425 in Triple-A, .208/.259/.292 in the majors. Was 2007 a fluke? Or is this "I have nothing left to prove in the minors so why didn't you give me a job" discouragement syndrome?
3) Neil Walker, 3B, Grade B
     .236/.272/.418 for Indianapolis. Young for the level at 22, but this isn't very impressive at all.
4) Daniel Moskos, LHP, Grade B
     6.33 ERA with 70/40 K/BB in 102 innings, 117 hits for Lynchburg. Has been more effective since moving back to bullpen lately. I think he can rebound as a reliever but the decision to draft him must really rankle now.
5) Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade C+
     Tommy John recovery has been so-so. 4.94 ERA with 65/15 K/BB in 93 innings combined at two levels of A-ball, 105 hits allowed. Good command but stuff isn't back yet.
6) Brian Bixler, SS, Grade C+
     .279/.343/.408 with 16 steals in Triple-A, .173/.239/.198 in the majors. Won't hit enough to start for a good team.
7) Shelby Ford, 2B, Grade C+
     .281/.335/.449 with 14 steals for Double-A Altoona. Solid overall though walk rate is low.
8) Duke Welker, RHP, Grade C+
     5.51 ERA with 65/41 K/BB in 98 innings for Class A Hickory, 117 hits allowed. Yuck. Strong GO/AO ratio, but nothing else going for him.
9) Brian Friday, SS, Grade C+
     .292/.369/.391 for Class A Lynchburg, missed time with back problems. Not a lot of power.
10) Andrew Walker, C, Grade C+
      .256/.284/.384 for Class A Hickory. Poor for the most part, currently on DL.
11) Jamie Romak, OF, Grade C
      .279/.360/.552 for Lynchburg, .197/.250/.408 for Double-A Altoona, undone so far at that level by excessive strikeouts.
12) Nyjer Morgan, OF, Grade C
      .294/.346/.364 with 43 steals in 80 games for Indianapolis, .143 in 26 games for the Pirates. Speed guy, looking for fourth/fifth outfield job.
13) Brad Corley, OF, Grade C
      .271/.320/.410 for Altoona. Has shown a bit more discipline this year but overall production is mediocre.
14) Bryan Bullington, RHP, Grade C
       Now with Indians. 5.37 ERA with 88/30 K/BB in 104 innings in Triple-A, 121 hits. Will never be the same guy he was before the injury.
15) Matt Peterson, RHP, Grade C
      Signed by Royals as minor league free agent. Limited to 18 innings this year at four levels by injuries, has a 5.50 ERA but a 19/1 K/BB. Has a chance if healthy. Given how impressive he was in the Pirates system in 2007, it is hard to believe they didn't protect him. Or maybe it really isn't.
16) Romulo Sanchez, RHP, Grade C
      2.28 ERA with 29/16 K/BB in 51 innings for Indianapolis. Can help in the major league pen if command holds up.
17) Quincy Latimore, OF, Grade C
       .255/.288/.410 for State College in the New York-Penn League. Toosly, very raw, bad plate discipline.
18) Marcus Davis, OF, Grade C
      .229/.294/.434 for Hickory before going on the DL in June. Impressive power/speed athlete, but extremely raw for a 23 year old.
19) Tony Watson, LHP, Grade C
       3.72 ERA with a 92/32 K/BB in 131 innings for Lynchburg, 137 hits allowed. Throws strikes, but Double-A transition in 2009 may not be easy.
20) Josh Sharpless, RHP, Grade C
      Now in the Giants system. 3.29 ERA with 24/26 K/BB in 27 innings for Double-A Connecticut. Can't survive with that kind of command.

Pass the Prozac.

The Pirates have suffered from years of trying to build a farm system on the cheap. They've had some bad luck as well, compounded by bad decisions in trades. Overall it has been a recipe for disaster. The Pedro Alvarez Era can't begin soon enough.

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Comments

Big Steven Pearce

I have to say that I agree with the assesment that he is a hitter who has stalled due to frustration of still playing in the minors. Last year he showed he could hit at all levels and had nothing left to prove in the minors. He earned a job in his late season call up and should have had a job out of spring training. Hopefully things turn around as he can be a key part of the Pirates future starting lineup:

1B. Andy Laroche (moving over to lessen the wear and tear of 3B)
2B.Freddie Sanchez
SS. Jack Wilson
3B. Pedro Alverez
LF. Nate McClouth
CF. Andrew McCutchen
RF. Steven Pearce
C. Ryan Doumit

While not the best lineup in baseball, this does have the potential to have a capable bat at every position with McCutchen, Alverez, Laroche, McClouth, and Pearce forming a VERY INTIMIDATING middle of the order.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 20, 2008 10:19 AM EDT 0 recs

Two things

Andy LaRoche will probably be a much better 3B than Alvarez, so if this was the lineup it would make more sense to flip them.

Maybe you mean far future, but Adam LaRoche will be next year’s 1B, again.

by DITO on Aug 20, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

Agreed

That is why I say future, possibly as early as 2010.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 20, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

At least Ed Creech is gone

If nothing else, this list will look a lot better a year from now. Can’t get any worse.

by woobie on Aug 20, 2008 11:13 AM EDT 0 recs

Andrew McCutchen

So, I am curious about your logic on this one. He’s a 21 year old in AAA who is drawing walks, stealing bases, playing very good defense in CF and by all accounts more than holding his own. He’s 5’11’’ but only 175 so its not like he’s grown into his frame really….and they always say power is the last thing to develop. What I guess I don’t understand is why you say you would drop his grade from an A- to a B+.

On Neil Walker you say that at least he is young for his age in AAA but doing nothing good.

McCutchen is a full year younger than Walker, but gets little credit for posting very respectable numers as a 21 year old in AAA his first time through? Were you expecting better power numbers from a guy that is 5’11’’ 175? What exactly is McCutchen not doing at this point that you thought he would do to keep his A-?

Also, I realize there isnt a ton of difference between A- and B+ grades. But with that being said….there must be enough of a difference for you to say that he would be downgraded.

Please don’t take my post as disrespectful. I love the site, your prospect book so I would just like to hear a little more about what you think about not only the Pirates #1 prospect. but a guy that has to be a top 10 prospect going into next season.

thanks John for all your hard work

Charlie

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Aug 20, 2008 12:35 PM EDT 0 recs

+1

I have always viewed McCutchen as being similar to Marquis Grissom in his Expos years. Not all players are going to hit 30 hr but Andrew has the potential to be a very special CF for years to come.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 20, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

That's the difference between...

Real scouts and fans.

Fans (who don’t actually see the kids play) make judgements solely on numbers.

Real scouts see the kids play and determine what tools are present and project potential.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 20, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

And which do you think is usually more accurate?

Just curious

by DITO on Aug 20, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'll take the Scout's perspective on a kid...

Prospects can’t be ranked on numbers alone. Numbers can lie, IMO.

For example, numbers don’t tell you if a kid has a long/short stroke, is effective at handling offspeed pitches, etc. For pitchers, numbers don’t tell you how hard a kid throws, the command of the offspeed pitches, etc. That’s why Scouts are so valuable. We all can go to Baseball America, MILB.COM, etc, and check out the stats and make an assumption.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 20, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

thats fine

But since you’re saying that scouts see things that other don’t, I’m asking John for that EXACT opinion. What did he see going into this year that gave McCutchen an A- but now gets him a B+? I’m saying I don’t see the digression in his numbers as a 21 year old in AAA on his first time through. So what else is there that I am not seeing? Heck, it doesn’t have to be john…anyone can chime in here that is a scout and tell me what they’ve seen.

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Aug 21, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

John isn't a scout

John has admitted in the past that he is not a scout. He does however have access to a large number of scouts who help relay him information on players where he is then able to make his assesments. This is similar to other experts such as Goldstein and Callis who rely on their network of contacts to judge and rank prospects.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 21, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

cool, but

None of this answers my simple question

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Aug 21, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Because it's looking increasingly

like he’ll simply be a solid center fielder – strong defensively, with a decent bat. You’re right that he doesn’t strike out a lot and this year he’s begun to walk significantly, but even with a reasonable batting average his somewhat anemic power keeps him from being a potential star. It’s true that he’s 21, and his power could develop; on the other hand, he’s 21 and his ISOP has declined each of the last 3 years and is now barely above .100. In contrast to Grissom, McCutchen simply doesn’t have 20 HR power, nor will he ever steal 70+ bases. This doesn’t make him a bad player – simply not a star.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 21, 2008 9:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

his ISOP

dropped the last few years because, unlike most players his age, he has gone right into AA and then AAA.

People try to make strong judgments on young talented players far too early. They take just a little bit of data and run wild with it, and strongly discount a players abilities changing. It is silly.

Grissom didn’t start hitting for a power until he was in his mid 20s btw

by nms on Aug 24, 2008 5:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

The difference between a B+ and A- is pretty significant. John doesn’t give A’s out too often and it usually means that he thinks that player will be a star as OldProspects is saying

by Reddrummer9187 on Aug 22, 2008 12:35 AM EDT up 0 recs

thanks guys

appreciate the responses

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Aug 22, 2008 9:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

A-

Yes, this is right. I like McCutchen, but am thinking he is more of a “good regular” in the future than “superstar.” He simply hasn’t dominated the way a Grade A/A- prospect usually does.

by John Sickels on Aug 22, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up 0 recs

Power

Were you projecting a sub .400 SLG this year for McCutchen? If not, then he isn’t completely living up to expectations, and thus his grade gets adjusted ever so slightly.

by aCone419 on Aug 20, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

plate discipline

there’s a counter balance to that and that is a nice bump in plate discipline. i’d say at age 21 that’s a little more telling than his lack of power which should increase.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Aug 20, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

no

his grade should only be adjusted, up or down, if you think his odds of becoming a useful MLBer have improved or if your opinion of how good of an MLBer he will be has changed. Now, if your opinion of him has changed somewhat because of this year.. then that is fine. But there is no logical reason to change a grade just because someone met, or didn’t meet, some statistical marker.
That makes it sound like it is kind of a game, and you get points for various tasks or accomplishments.. but that kind of thinking, which seems so prevalent, has little real baseball use

by nms on Aug 20, 2008 4:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

You are making it sound stranger than it actually is

The longer it takes someone to meet specific expectations, the less likely they are to achieve them. A 20 year who projects to develop power has more time to do so than a 21 year old in the same situation. His odds are greater, as you put it.

.400 was just a convenient marker for showing that he is below expectations.

by aCone419 on Aug 20, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

This Farm System

Is pretty bad. I excpeted more.

Cain is Able ...

by Norcalfan10 on Aug 20, 2008 2:35 PM EDT 0 recs

You cannot be a Pirates fan

Last season, some fans ran amuck because Littlefield passed over Wieters to take Moskos. It wasn’t that Littlefield made a ridiculous mistake. It was the horrible state of the farm system , the decade long team losing streak, the nature of the pick, the talent difference between Weiters and Moskos, etc. The Littlefield FO had ground the minor league system into waste material years ago.

If you were a Pirates fan you would know that things were hopeless so long as McClatchy, Littlefield, Creech and the rest of the incompetents were doing what they do best.

Steve Z

by steve_z on Aug 20, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

I will wait and see if the ownership gets out of baseball

management. They reneged on a trade this spring that would have netted them a probable Cy Young winner, a super catcher and high upside OFer and wound up giving the same player away for midlevel prospects four months later. No wonder they never win.

by sdtribefan on Aug 20, 2008 7:14 PM EDT 0 recs

Right

Because everyone saw Cliff Lee pitching like this right? I don’t think so. Looking back and saying it looks like a good deal is easy now, not so much then. I also don’t think labeling Pittsburgh’s return on Bay as “midlevel guys” is really fair, but whatever.

Unless Huntington is a total idiot, I think he would have pushed pretty hard to make that deal with Cleveland if he felt it was the best for the team, as he came from the Indians organization and should know that talent better than most anyone else.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Aug 20, 2008 10:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

Bucs

It’s sad to see how far this franchise has fallen since the ‘90s. Hopefully Alvarez will turn out to be something special. I’m rooting for a Pirates turnaround, but obviously I won’t hold my breath.

by Ox on Aug 20, 2008 8:37 PM EDT 0 recs

Yeah

I honestly want to root for the Pirates, but they need to give me something.

by onholliday on Aug 21, 2008 8:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Duke Welker: First-Hand Look at a Pirate Farmhand

Duke Welker turned in one of the more dominant performances by a starting pitcher I’ve seen in my nearly two years following the South Atlantic League. His fastball bounced from the low 90s to as high as 95-96 and his aforementioned "12-to-6" curveball had a good tight break as it fell from his high release point. He showed an occasional changeup, more often as he got deeper into the game. The key to his success Aug. 7 was staying in the lower half of the strike zone and not surrendering many line drives or fly balls. As I wrote above, he was the victim of bad fortune in the "hits allowed" category, seeing grounders either barely sneak through his infield defense or settle on the grass for infield safeties.

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Aug 21, 2008 7:05 PM EDT 0 recs