Yankees 2006 draft...wow
The previous post on Mark Melancon provoked me to post this, looking back at that 2006 draft for the Yankees. This is a list of the pitchers drafted and signed by the Yankees that year:
1st round - Ian Kennedy - He rolled through all 3 levels of the minors in 5 months last season and found himself in the majors by September where he actually succeeded. This season he flopped and got hurt after making the opening day rotation, but he still should end up as a back of the rotation type guy with good command and pitchability.
Stats in AAA: 51.1 innings, 35 hits, 14 BBs, 43 Ks, 2.10 ERA. I don't think he is a AAAA pitcher as some say because most guys in his situation would be in AA/AAA and not having that type of success.
Supplemental 1st rd - Joba Chamberlain - You all know the story, dominated the minors, made reliever, dominated as a setup man, converted back to starter, already the most dominant pitcher the Yankees have had since the 90s and profiles as a true big game pitching ace.
Stats as a starter: 65.1 inning, 60 hits, 25 BBs, 74 Ks, 2.76 ERA
3rd rd - Zach McAllister - Without a doubt the breakout prospect in the Yankees system, and one around all of baseball. Only 20 years old (turns 21 in December) but has been completely lights out in both low A and high A, and will spend next season as a 21 year old in AA and maybe even a late season call up to AAA if all goes well. Very young for his leagues and is now a top 10 Yankees prospect, maybe even top 5 in some opinions. Has just incredible control, the best in the Yankees system since Hughes was in A and AA.
Stats in Low A: 62.1 innings, 59 hits, 8 BBs, 53 Ks, 2.45 ERA
Stats in High A: 83.2 innings, 71 hits, 12 BBs, 53 Ks, 1.94 ERA. Not incredible K rates, but with that type of command and his great GO/AO ratio, he should be ok and should improve. He has added mph to his fastball since the day he was drafted.
5th rd - George Kontos - Has been very solid as a starter in the minors. A lot of people feel that with his fastball/slider combo and great K rate, he may profile as a reliever down the road. But as usual that will be a last resort.
Stats in AA: 133.1 innings, 115 hits, 53 BBs, 133 Ks, 3.78 ERA
8th rd - Dellin Betances - Was a 1st rd talent but was committed to JuCo and before the draft stated that he would only sign with the Yankees, so the Yanks waited until round 8 to risk their chances and gave him a $1 million bonus to win him over. Some very minor injuries have prevented him from finding consistency with his delivery, as he is 6'9''. Throws in the mid-upper 90s with ease and has a very good change and decent curve to go with it. With command, this kid is an ace. Without it, he is Daniel Cabrera. He has recently found some consistency and people are beginning to get hyped about him.
Stats in Low A: 104.1 innings, 74 hits, 58 BBs, 126 Ks, .198 BAA. Pretty incredible H/9 and K/9 rates, but those BBs are disgusting. But there has been improvement...
Last 6 starts: 35.2 innings, 25 hits, 13 BBs, 44 Ks, 2.01 ERA. If he finds this consistency, he will be recognized around baseball.
9th rd - Mark Melancon - Was drafted knowing he probably need TJ surgery, got it and missed all of 2007. In 2008 he has completely dominated A, AA, and now AAA. He should be helping the Yankee bullpen as soon as the rosters expand on September 1st and should be playing a huge role as soon as next season.
Stats on all 3 levels: 86.2 innings, 64 hits, 21 BBs, 78 Ks, 2.18 ERA, .206 BAA
13 rd - Daniel McCutchen - Solid prospect as a back of the rotation guy or perhaps the bullpen, and his value was shown by what he brought back in Nady and Marte at the trade deadline. Was having a solid season between AA and AAA and would've been the next in line for a start with the Yankees with all of their injuries.
Stats in AA and AAA: 153.1 innings, 147 hits, 36 BBs, 130 Ks, 3.52 ERA
17th rd - David Robertson - Flew through the minors posting pretty ridiculous K rates, but he struggled with his control. He has now been helping the major league club and has been pitching well for the most part aside from one or two disastrous appearances that have inflated his ERA. Should become a key part of the Yankees pen for a while.
Stats in the minors: 51.2 innings, 26 hits, 22 BBs, 74 Ks, 1.39 ERA
Majors: 21.1 innings, 18 hits, 11 BBs, 25 Ks, 5.48 ERA. Pretty good peripherals but the BBs can be lowered, but he is a rookie. Like I said his ERA is inflated by one 5 run appearance where he only retired 1 batter last month.
So all in all, a pretty incredible haul by the Yankees on the pitching front. Two of the guys are already key members of the major league team (Joba and Robertson), one started the year in the rotation but has been injured and underachieving (Kennedy), one brought back excellent value in a trade (McCutchen), one is knocking on the door and a future closer (Melancon) and of course McAllister is rising up the ranks very quickly and another top prospect in Betances.
What do you guys think of this type of success in just one draft and can you think of anything similar for other teams? Most teams struggled to find that type of talent over 5 drafts none the less one. The Yanks could literally have their ace, their closer, plus two or three more key starters.
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The Tigers 2005 draft was pretty good. Cameron Maybin, Burke Badenhop, Kevin Whelan, and Anthony Claggett have helped bring them Miguel Cabrera and Gary Sheffield in trades. Jeff Larish, Matt Joyce, Clete Thomas, and Michael Hollimon have all debuted in the big leagues this year.
by SBcaptain2 on Aug 19, 2008 4:41 PM EDT 0 recs
Decent Draft
But, outside of Joba, I don’t think it’s a massive haul. I see a lot of guys with low strike out rates. Above average, I would say.
by Lunkwill Fook on Aug 19, 2008 4:45 PM EDT 0 recs
Right
Not really impressive to me. One stud in Joba – and he has his question marks – and a bunch of guys with chances to be below average MLB players.
Yawn.
by alskor on
Aug 19, 2008 7:42 PM EDT
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This draft was so good
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?franch_ID=CLE&year_ID=1989&draft_type=junreg
it got the scouting director fired.
by nms on Aug 19, 2008 4:47 PM EDT 0 recs
In hindsight
Who wouldn’t have taken Jesse Levis ahead of Bagwell in the 4th round? The Giles and Thome picks were pretty solid however.
by juggernaut400 on
Aug 19, 2008 5:33 PM EDT
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plus they got a load of solid contributor type guys
Leskanic, Person, Embree, DiPoto, Stinett
by nms on
Aug 19, 2008 5:47 PM EDT
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So was Jason Giambi
when the Brewers picked him in the 43rd round that same year.
by juggernaut400 on
Aug 19, 2008 5:41 PM EDT
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Want to see a good draft?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?franch_ID=BOS&year_ID=2005&draft_type=junreg
Jacoby Ellsbury
Craig Hansen (“his value was shown by what he brought back in Jason Bay at the trade deadline” Ha!)
Clay Buchholz
Jew Lowrie
Michael Bowden
also
Luis Exposito
Bubba Bell
They also picked Pedro Alvarez in the 15th but couldnt sign him!
by alskor on
Aug 19, 2008 7:50 PM EDT
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6 top 60 picks
makes it somewhat less impressive for my taste. Not that it doesn’t have the potential to deliver a lot of talent to the Sox, but when I’m thinking of greatest drafts ever, in terms of drafting skill, I’ve gotta take that into consideration.
by nms on
Aug 19, 2008 8:33 PM EDT
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If we were critiquing scouting staffs/FOs
Sure.
Talking about who got the biggest haul of talent and this crop was way up there. The Rays have had some sick drafts too. Point is though that there are many, many drafts in recent memory that exceed the Yankees in 2006.
The Yankees in 06 draft WAS overrated. To get that straight. If this thread had been about what a nice draft this was and how it wasnt getting recognition I would be right on board lauding the Yanks. However, when we use ridiculous hyperbole like we saw here, I cant help but disagree and criticize.
by alskor on
Aug 20, 2008 1:42 AM EDT
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Jew Lawrie will fit right in with Youkilis
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on
Aug 20, 2008 7:56 PM EDT
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I should've been more specific
But I’m talking about comparable drafts in terms of pitching. Really the only one with a low K rate is McAllister who has some of the best command in the minors, and of course Kennedy who doesn’t profile as a top of the rotation guy anyway. The rest (Melancon, Betances, Kontos, Robertson) are pretty good strikeout guys. Really the worst of the 3 in terms of strikeouts is Melancon, and even he is nearly at 9 per 9 innings but has very good stuff and command. Like I said, I wonder how many teams have landed an ace, two other starters, a closer, and another reliever all in one draft, which is what the Yankees potentially have.
by tmacdaman1 on Aug 19, 2008 4:56 PM EDT 0 recs
I can tell you that
lots of drafts, if viewed through rose colored goggles, have looked like they have “potentially landed” an “ace, two starters, a closer and another reliever” two years down the line.
by nms on
Aug 19, 2008 5:08 PM EDT
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Chamberlain as an ace?
Please show me he can carry a 180+ inning load for a few seasons before he is an ace. Once you take the glasses off, while impressive, this is not a cream of the crop type draft. To me, this more looks like a #2 start, maybe another starter, two relievers and the rest unknown fringe major leaguers. Minor league stats as we have seen does not make a major leaguer
by dlpme77 on
Aug 19, 2008 6:24 PM EDT
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180?
A real ace needs to give me more than that. At least 200, preferable 220 or more
by nms on
Aug 19, 2008 6:35 PM EDT
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I agree
I was noting more than anything Joba’s injury riddled season this season. I personally do not think he will be an ace,a nd while having an awesome arm will not be able to carry the load. That is just me, but have heard others say the same thing
by dlpme77 on
Aug 19, 2008 8:06 PM EDT
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"Injured Riddled Season"
????
You mean the couple weeks he’s missed. That’s injured riddled? What do you call Carl Pavano then? (By the way, injured again!)
http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/
by hallofamer2000 on
Aug 19, 2008 8:10 PM EDT
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It is not how long, it is what type of injury he had
Arm injuries worry me. This is exactly why he fell as far as he did in the draft; great arm, questionable body. Also had a hamstring injury to start off his career. Looking at his make-up, he does not scream dirability to me. He may not be Carl Pavano, mostly because I questions Pavano’s desire to get anything but a paycheck, but you’d be lying if you think this issue with his physical make-up is a “non-issue”
by dlpme77 on
Aug 19, 2008 8:20 PM EDT
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Both minor injuries
The hamstring was nothing and he only has tendinitis. They’re just being ridiculously careful because he’s Joba Chamberlain.
Last year he had about 40 innings in Hawaii and 110 in pro ball with little problem, most while starting.
This is a humungous overreaction to a small injury. It’s not like he tore a rotator cuff.
http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/
by hallofamer2000 on
Aug 19, 2008 8:29 PM EDT
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Read the reports
On what the scouts were saying before he was drafted. This is not an overreaction, this was a genuine worry about Joba heading into the draft and he has yet to disprove this notion. ANY arm injury, especially tendonitis, is not a minor injury. You are fooling yourself if you believe that. Especially when we are talking about his rotator cuff
by dlpme77 on
Aug 19, 2008 8:37 PM EDT
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I hate to chop up a post of someone who
is entitled to an opinion but are you serious about this stuff? I hope you realize any poster on this site could write this type of review about his favorite team’s 2006 draft. Other than Chamberlain, who has yet to prove he can stay healthy enough to be a FOR pitcher, this group contains no pitcher who will ever make it to the Yankee rotation. You only need to look at what goes on at Yankee central to figure out that next year’s FAs will supplant any chance these mediocre draft choices have of reaching the Yankee rotation. Just trade fodder!!!
by sdtribefan on Aug 19, 2008 6:41 PM EDT 0 recs
Giants 2006 draft was better
simply based on Lincecum.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 19, 2008 7:07 PM EDT 0 recs
not really
Lincecum hasn’t been a whole lot better than Joba so far, and their upsides are similar enough to make up for the fact that – at this very early stage of evaluation – the Yanks got a few possible solid pitchers elsewhere in the draft and the Giants only added a util IF or 2
by nms on
Aug 20, 2008 3:23 AM EDT
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Really?
Besides already being an all-star, leading the world in strikeouts, having nearly two full seasons under his belt, having no health problems. Yes Lincecum and Joba are the same, in that they were drafted the same year. They both have good stuff, but to say Lincecum has not been worlds better is delusion.
Also, the giants got a few “utility infielders” except they got a pitcher who has led the minors in ERA (pucetas), another that has led the cal league(snyder) in ERA and was second in the SAL league in strikeouts, one who profiles as a good 4 or 5 lefty starter in two years(tanner), a future shut down right reliever(cowart), as well as others. Yup those are some quality utility infielders.
P.S. there is a reason that Joba dropped to the supplemental. He has had knee problems, including if i recall correctly a torn meniscus. Enough people were scared away to let him drop. Knee problems do not go away, and he is at an elevated risk to have greater health problems in the future. Lincecum on the other hand, who was better in college, and has been better in the majors has had no health problems, except for ball induced contusions.
by OmahaGiants on
Aug 20, 2008 1:12 PM EDT
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I’m a Giants fanboy as much as any (as evidenced by my blog) but Snyder, Pucetas, and Cowart are probably not going to have much if any impact at the major league level. Tanner might, but a 4/5 starter isn’t that valuable. Still nothing to sneez at though.
by RougeGorrila on
Aug 20, 2008 2:26 PM EDT
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come on
What is the point in having fun talking about baseball if you can’t even attempt to stay realistic.
I agree that I should have added “soft tossing swingmen and utility IFs” instead of just “utility IFs” but you are really overselling the abilities of all those guys.
Minor league ERA champs don’t exactly have sterling records of turning into MLB pitchers. They are usually sharp soft-tossers. And I love how you say Cowart is a future “shut down reliever” despite no real indications of that and no real support to that claim from you. I think it is obvious that I love to talk baseball, but it is just mentally painful to do so when that conversation can not go on without wild leaps to judgement.
Also, I didn’t say Joba has been as good as Lincecum.. nor did I say Joba has been better.
But, no, Lincecum – thus far – hasn’t been so far better than Joba. Joba and Lincecum’s ERAs and ERA+s this year have been pretty much identical. Lincecum has, of course, pitched a good number more innings. Lincecum, last year, put up a good 2/3 of a season as a starter while Joba put together one of the most dominant relief stretches ever. Joba’s career ERA has been much better, but of course Lincecum has pitched a good deal more innings. Their K/BB and HR rates, this year, have been fairly comparable (Jobas HR rate a lil’ better, Lincecum’s K/BB slightly better) but Joba has a decently better career K/BB and HR rate.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Joba has been better. I’m just saying Lincecum, for all the hype and stupid obsessive fanboy love, hasn’t been all that much better than Joba (who, of course, hasn’t exactly lacked hype himself). Joba has been more dominant, he just pitched in a different role as a rookie and hasn’t pitched as much overall
by nms on
Aug 20, 2008 3:58 PM EDT
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basically
my point is that while Lincecum is a better guy to have than Joba he isn’t so much better than Joba to make up for the large difference between the rest of the Yankees haul (Betences, McAllister, Melancon, Kennedy, McCutchen, Robertson) and the rather fringy guys the Giants pulled in (Burris, McBryde, Bocock, Pucetas, Tanner, Maday, Snyder, Rohlinger)
And Lincecum was only better in college if you only paid attention to their junior years only.
by nms on
Aug 20, 2008 4:09 PM EDT
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You know i think i finally thought of a good comp fro Ian Kennedy
Brian Bannister?
by laxtonto on Aug 19, 2008 7:27 PM EDT 0 recs
Yankee Haters
You guys are crazy. Five of these players at some point in the past or this year will be in BA’s Top 100 (Kennedy, Chamberlain, Betances, Melancon, McAllister), and Chamberlain has already emerged as one of the game’s great young pitchers.
For the guy that said low K rates, that’s pretty wrong.
Chamberlain/Kontos/Betances/Robertson/Kennedy: all have K/9 of over 9 (Kennedy did in his only full season)
McAllister: He’s a groundball pitcher.
Melancon: He’s put up these numbers in his year back from TJ surgery while pitching 3 innings at a time.
http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/
by hallofamer2000 on Aug 19, 2008 7:56 PM EDT 0 recs
The top 100
do we need to go throught the history of Top 100 pitching prospects? The majority do not pan out. Yanks will be lucky if they get 2-3 respectable roster spots from these guys besides Joba the next 5 years. Besides Joba I do not see anyone else special in this draft,
by dlpme77 on
Aug 19, 2008 8:09 PM EDT
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I realize that
but everyone here is saying that everyone mentioned, including Joba, sucks.
http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/
by hallofamer2000 on
Aug 19, 2008 8:14 PM EDT
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I don't see anyone saying Joba sucks
more that Joba may not be an ace
by dlpme77 on
Aug 19, 2008 8:16 PM EDT
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Based on what?
Besides a minor injury, I don’t get why.
http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/
by hallofamer2000 on
Aug 19, 2008 8:30 PM EDT
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Because of that
Joba has not shown he can carry the load as a starting pitcher, period. Until you prove that you are not an ace
by dlpme77 on
Aug 19, 2008 8:38 PM EDT
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Right
I think most of the people who wouldnt call Joba an “Ace” would be comfortable calling him a “potential future Ace.” He just doesnt have the resume in professional ball to deserve the title “Ace” – especially when that title is in large part based on durability…
Its not a knock on Joba or his ability or his potential. He has certainly pitched LIKE an Ace so far.
by alskor on
Aug 19, 2008 8:59 PM EDT
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+1 in a big way
Chamberlain has TOR stuff but that is a long way from the exagerations that are being made by the Yankee Phanatics. We hear the same stuff post after post, year after year. If Yankee prospects are so great, where are they on the ML roster? I really like reasonable discussions about players but Yankee fans attack everyone like mad dogs if they even suggest that a prospect is not perfect.
by sdtribefan on
Aug 20, 2008 12:06 AM EDT
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I dont think people are saying they "suck"
I think everyone is just at a loss as to why someone would look at this collection of players and wonder how anyone could make statements like:
So all in all, a pretty incredible haul by the Yankees on the pitching front
Ha!
Two of the guys are already key members of the major league team (Joba and Robertson)
Robertson? Key member? Really?
one brought back excellent value in a trade (McCutchen)
/rolling eyes
What do you guys think of this type of success in just one draft and can you think of anything similar for other teams?
Can we think of anything similar??? This is not a once in a generation collection of talent here(other than Joba)!
Most teams struggled to find that type of talent over 5 drafts none the less one.
What a silly thing to say.
The Yanks could literally have their ace, their closer, plus two or three more key starters.
Again, funny stuff. This might be the biggest Yankee homer post of all time. That’s not exactly an easy title to lay claim to, either.
If you cant understand the negative reaction I urge you to go back and read the original post again. These are some pretty wild comments to make and theyre getting the response they deserve.
Realistically, even in the most optimistic light this qualifies as just a pretty good draft with one stud in Joba. Its way early to make these kind of judgments, too, which is a point many above have made. This certainly doesnt appear to be some sort of super draft, like the thread creator has claimed. Its a silly claim to make, and I think most reasonable Yankee fans would agree, even those with high hopes for most of these guys…
by alskor on
Aug 19, 2008 8:55 PM EDT
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Zach McAllister
I’m a huge fan here. I see a kid with a good frame, control, some more room for growth as, more than likely, he can physically mature some more (which doesn’t mean getting better). If his breaking stuff can inch upwards, and I’ve read mixed comments on his development, I see a potential ace here down the line. Yes, I know I might be in the minority, very slim minority on that, very gigantically slim minority, but while a guy like Jairo Heredia or Dellin Betances, or heck, Andrew Brackman, might have higher upside, I think McAllister has the best combination of upside and floor. I just like the kid’s baseball potential if his breaking stuff improves so that it can be utilized as an out pitch, and I guess that isn’t exactly reinventing the wheel, but I guess I’m saying I think it can improve.
I know I’m in a small minority, but I think he’s one of the better pitching prospects in th minors.
by toonsterwu on Aug 19, 2008 9:02 PM EDT 0 recs
Response
He’s an interesting arm, but the stuff profile makes me think he profiles much more as a strike-throwing, inning-eating mid-rotation starter than a true frontline arm. He’s certainly polished for his age, pounding the zone with a solid low 90s fastball. But I suspect that he’s going to face substantial adjustments at higher levels. It’s only been recently that he’s gotten that H/IP ratio into a comfortable range. It’s mostly been very close if not over 1 H/IP, which suggests that while low level guys aren’t having a great deal of luck making great contact off of him, they’re not getting fooled all that much by what he’s tossing, either.
High floor for a 20 year old arm? I’ll agree to that. But I think there’s a lot more Josh Towers here than a 1-2 starter at this point.
by mrkupe on
Aug 19, 2008 9:59 PM EDT
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Don't disagree with much
I mean, much as I like Zach’s potential, I’m also aware that I am projecting a bit and making some assumptions on development. He could very well be a Jeff Suppan like guy, or anywhere in between, from the Halladay comparisons that I’ve seen tossed out to perhaps a Chien-Ming Wang or Aaron Cook type.
So, why am I responding? I’m hoping someone that’s seen him of late, well, anyone in general, can answer this -
I had read/saw/heard somewhere that he was tossing in the mid-90’s now. Was that potentially just an off gun or is he really running it in there at 93-94 with movement on the fastball?
How’s his secondary stuff coming along? I read somewhere, I forget where, that his slider was getting utilized again and it has the snap on it to potentially be a plus pitch, and that he has an above average change.
Can he physically mature? So, this is three parts – I had a typo above. Can he get bigger? Can he get leaner? And has he adjusted to his body? I’ve heard mixed things about this – I’m assuming at his age, getting more physically mature, adjusting to the body, is still occurring, but I could be wrong.
In typing all this, I somehow have visions of Sean Gallagher/Eric Hurley scouting reports, so maybe I should view McAllister as a 2/3 type, which is what I viewed Gallagher/Hurley. That said, McAllister’s a bit more developed than either one, IMO, at the same stage, with a bit more upside, the upside part being my own opinion.
by toonsterwu on
Aug 20, 2008 1:01 AM EDT
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Who is comparing him to Halladay?
That’s crazy… both because he doesnt have near that ceiling and because Doc’s development curve was so unusual.
All the comps youre providing are guys with much, much better stuff than McAllister. Not slightly better. Not in the range where McAllister could match them if his secondary stuff improved… MUCH MUCH better stuff, IMHO.
When I see McAllister I think Aaron Laffey is his upside.
& fwiw, I really like Aaron Laffey.
by alskor on
Aug 20, 2008 1:48 AM EDT
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I've read some comments that
Suggest a much different picture for McAllister than you are painting, that suggest he’s throwing in the mid-90’s with nasty sink and has shown top flashes with his slider. I haven’t actually seen him pitch, though, so that’s why I was more curious.
So, from your response, I’m taking a guess that from what you’ve seen
a) he doesn’t pitch mid-90’s/he doesn’t get nasty sink or both
and/or
b) His slider hasn’t gotten better or doesn’t show enough flashes, and same goes for his change?
I read the Halladay thing somewhere. I’ll look it up if he has time.
by toonsterwu on
Aug 20, 2008 2:41 AM EDT
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Well
if you want to call some of my comments homer comments, fair enough. That is why we are fans of these teams, we are all homers. We all get excited when our prospects succeed and such.
But on the other hand, you cannot ignore the ridiculous comments coming the other way. Saying that other than Joba none of those guys will even be AVERAGE major leaguers is pretty unfair at this point, especially considering the flashes of success that guys like Kennedy and Robertson have already shown, what is expected to come of Melancon, and the high potential of guys in the lower levels such as Betances and McAllister. No it isn’t the best draft ever, but it is a very good haul of pitching POTENTIAL.
To knock Joba as a future ace because of injury concerns is also a little over the top as he has never had one serious injury. If you consider tendinitis to be that scary, please find me one 22 year old pitcher who never dealt with tendinitis throughout college or the minor leagues, it is as common as the common cold in young pitchers. Joba’s injury concerns pre draft were due to his weight, and he has lost over 30 lbs since being drafted and his conditioning is only an issue in the opinion of Yankee haters.
Like other people said, you can find “potential” in any team’s draft. And while that is a fair and reasonable statement, my point was how impressive it was that they were getting such good results this quickly from the draft class. For the person who said that Robertson is not a key member, the kid is splitting time as the 7th inning guy. When a team is holding on for dear life, I think that their guys that split time in the 7th inning is considered a key member. And look for Melancon to be playing a big role as early as next month and certainly next season.
So to have two quality big league arms already, and possibly another in Kennedy and another on the cusp of the majors in Melancon just 26 months after the draft is pretty good IMO. Maybe not in the opinion of Yankee haters, but when you combine that quick success with the high ceiling guys on Betances and McAllister, it can be a special draft in terms of the pitching.
Like I said, you can rip some of the comments as being homer comments, but you can’t deny the quick success and long-term potential of this class.
by tmacdaman1 on Aug 20, 2008 12:55 AM EDT 0 recs
sorta +1
One thing that can be said about this class, and recent developmental pitching assessments, is that it really helped push the Yankees system back on the map. In many ways, perception does play a role in things, but in saying this, the only perception that matters is other front office personnel and not our own. For example, the Cardinals system is largely considered average by most on here I think, but I remember reading numerous reports before August 1 about teams having intrigue with many players in the system, or something like that.
by toonsterwu on
Aug 20, 2008 1:02 AM EDT
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Im sorry, but I just dont feel that these guys have anywhere near the upside youre saying
Saying that other than Joba none of those guys will even be AVERAGE major leaguers is pretty unfair at this point, especially considering the flashes of success that guys like Kennedy and Robertson have already shown, what is expected to come of Melancon, and the high potential of guys in the lower levels such as Betances and McAllister. No it isn’t the best draft ever, but it is a very good haul of pitching POTENTIAL.
How have Kennedy and Robertson shown you they have any chance to be above average major leaguers? If anything, Kennedy has demonstrated that his stuff is NOT going to be good enough(though its too early to close the book. I try not to take too much of an impression from a guy’s first time through the league… OTOH his stuff IS crappy). Robertson never even had a chance to be an above average major leaguer.
I feel that Joba is the only one of these pitchers who has the stuff and performance to be anything other than a back of the rotation starter. These guys are all 4/5s IF everything breaks right. McAllister perhaps a ceiling as a #3. These guys just arent as impressive as youre saying, IMHO. Can you find a quote or analysis anywhere from anyone with any credentials who thinks guys like Kontos or McCutcheon have any chance of being a front of the rotation guy?? The most likely scenario is these guys become middle relievers IF they even make the majors. To be fair, Betances likely has a higher ceiling but he’s a big Incomplete grade right now. I see Betances as a power reliever down the line, personally. Melancon I like, but he’s just a reliever who doesnt strike a ton of guys out. If this draft is anything special its going to be all because of Mr. Chamberlain, who looks awesome.
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Under the rating system you seem to be using the Texas Rangers must have no less than 25 future Ace pitchers. To illustrate, lets take a look and see what Ranger pitching prospects are better prospects than McAllister: Kiker, Hurley, Feliz, Main, Beavan, Poveda(maybe), Harrison, Hunter… and Im going to stop there, because I think Ive made my point. If youre seriously listing these Yankee pitcher ceilings as front of the rotation guys than you must surely think that in four years the Rangers will have the greatest pitching staff of all time. The same goes for the Rays, too.
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The “quick success” is a result of the Yankee organization’s pitching problems(other than Joba). Three Yankee pitching prospects began the year in the rotation and two performed like complete garbage. They had two high priced set up men – one who sucked and was released and one who did surprising well after stinking up the joint last year and was traded. Following these events the team was forced to turn to internal solutions. I would not construe any of this as a glowing recommendation of those internal options.
The “long-term potential” is being greatly exaggerated, IMHO, as discussed above.
I appreciate your love for your team but youve strongly overstated things, IMHO. You asked what people think and I told you…
by alskor on
Aug 20, 2008 2:17 AM EDT
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"To knock Joba as a future ace..."
To knock Joba as a future ace because of injury concerns is also a little over the top as he has never had one serious injury. If you consider tendinitis to be that scary, please find me one 22 year old pitcher who never dealt with tendinitis throughout college or the minor leagues, it is as common as the common cold in young pitchers. Joba’s injury concerns pre draft were due to his weight, and he has lost over 30 lbs since being drafted and his conditioning is only an issue in the opinion of Yankee haters.
Me above:
I think most of the people who wouldnt call Joba an "Ace" would be comfortable calling him a "potential future Ace." He just doesnt have the resume in professional ball to deserve the title "Ace" – especially when that title is in large part based on durability…
Its not a knock on Joba or his ability or his potential. He has certainly pitched LIKE an Ace so far.
by alskor on
Aug 20, 2008 2:20 AM EDT
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Alskor
I wasn’t directing that towards you, sorry if it seemed that way. There are plenty of people (not necessarily just here, but in general) that claim that Joba doesn’t have the arm to hold up to be an ace and that he would be better off relieving, which I think anybody here would agree is a ridiculous statement.
Also, I’m not pegging all of those guys as front of the rotation pitchers, I never even said ANY ceilings for those guys other than Joba being an ace. I even said that McCutchen and Kontos profile as relievers more likely than major league starters.
But I think people are missing the point here. My point wasn’t to say that the Yankees found five aces and three closers in one draft, it was just to point out the possibility of drafting 8 or 9 major league arms in one draft. We are all well aware of how difficult it is for prospects to actually become impact players in the majors. So for a team to get that amount of major league arms in one draft (of course assuming McAllister and Betances develop nicely) is pretty damn successful. So I’ll reiterate, I’m not trying to say that the Yankees found 9 superstars as some people seem to be taking my original post that way. But I do think it is very impressive to even get 9 major league arms in one draft.
If you guys are interested in what my ceilings are for these guys so you don’t all get so upset and freak out, I’ll give them to you.
Joba – ace…Betances – a #1 or #2 with a consistent delivery, just has killer stuff…McAllister – a #3…Melancon – Mo’s successor…Robertson – 7th inning type guy…McCutchen – #5 in the NL/middle reliever…Kontos – #5/middle reliever….Kennedy – a #4/#5
Okay? So everybody can relax, because the only guys that have high ceilings IMO are Joba, Betances, McAllister, and Melancon, which I think is very fair. However, lets not pretend that middle of the rotation, back of the rotation, and middle relievers are NOT important to a team’s success. And lets also not pretend that getting all of those things from one draft is so common.
People seem to be really underrating Melancon.
by tmacdaman1 on
Aug 20, 2008 10:29 AM EDT
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Here's the problem
it was just to point out the possibility of drafting 8 or 9 major league arms in one draft. We are all well aware of how difficult it is for prospects to actually become impact players in the majors. So for a team to get that amount of major league arms in one draft (of course assuming McAllister and Betances develop nicely) is pretty damn successful. So I’ll reiterate, I’m not trying to say that the Yankees found 9 superstars as some people seem to be taking my original post that way. But I do think it is very impressive to even get 9 major league arms in one draft.
The problem is that you’re taking guys that haven’t done it, predicting they will do it, and then giving the Yankees credit as if they’ve already done it. Your last line is the damning one. The Yankees have not got 9 major league arms from that one draft. Maybe someday they will, probably they won’t. But they definitely have not. So giving them credit as if they have, despite your disclaimer in the middle, defeats your own point.
by EinNH on
Aug 20, 2008 10:46 AM EDT
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Fair enough
The reason I brought it up now is because like I said, 2 are already major leaguers, two more are in AAA and going to be major leaguers next season, one started the year in the majors, and two more have very good numbers and potential in A ball, so it isn’t so crazy to imagine them all being in the majors at some point considering what has happened already with the draft class.
Geez, I’m sorry for bringing up a DISCUSSION on a forum, crazy me thought people might like to discuss baseball here where opinions can be given. I didn’t know all we can do is report facts. Guess I’ll come back in 2011/12 when McAllister and Betances make their major league debuts, then would everybody be happy?
by tmacdaman1 on
Aug 20, 2008 11:44 AM EDT
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I think
you just didnt like the discussion. All I stated was my opinions.
by alskor on
Aug 20, 2008 2:58 PM EDT
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That's fair.
I see where youre coming from, just think youre jumping the gun.
by alskor on
Aug 20, 2008 2:59 PM EDT
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You can't compare 2005 Sox draft to 2006 Yankees draft
First of all, 2005 Sox primarily drafted college guys as their top picks (sans Bowden), so it’s easier to see the success as of right now and IMO, they got better players. 2006 Yankee draft had guys like McAllister (Laffey comparison is stupid as hell, btw) and Betances—who has more ceilings and risks than any Sox draftees in 2005. And David Robertson HAS a chance to give more impact given on how he did in minors and his ability to miss some bats. He has a good potential and had soem flashese, but needs to settle in MLB.
I’m still laughing at Laffey = McAllister’s upside post, btw.
by McLoving on Aug 20, 2008 9:26 AM EDT 0 recs
I'll tell you what's stupid
Getting this excited about a guy in high A with so-so stuff and mediocre K rates.
Keep laughing, though, we’ll see on McAllister. Big Dude, gets grounders, mediocre stuff. Lots to like, but nothing special about this kid. Lots of these guys around in the low minors. How many pitchers in the minors would you take above him? Non Yankee fans would take lots.
Laffey is a guy who also gets a ton of grounders. McAllister has slightly better K rates. but theyre pretty similar in my opinion. They both dont have overpowering stuff. Laffey is a decent major league pitcher. 3-5 type. Mid to back of rotation. That’s something good and valuable. I think the Yankees would be delighted if McAllister reached that level.
Considering the highest level McAllister has pitched is high A(64 IP), I think youre really overrating the guy. There are really tons of guys with similar profiles in the low minors(though McAllister is on the top of that curve). You have to wait and see how they perform in AA before you get this excited about them, unless they have Kershaw numbers(and even then there were questions before AA). McAllister is eminently nothing special IMHO. I guess we’ll see soon enough, though. I dont think he’s missing enough bats to look all that good against advanced hitters, personally. Solid back of the rotation type, with a chance to be something more.
by alskor on
Aug 20, 2008 2:56 PM EDT
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FYI
Name calling and personal attacks dont add anything to your posts.
by alskor on
Aug 20, 2008 2:56 PM EDT
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OOC have you seen McAllister pitch this year
I am curious. Largely because, everything I know on Zach this year is based off comments and reports. Do you know if he is throwing a hard mid-90’s fastball with movement? Or is he down where he was last year, low 90’s? Has his slider and change improved?
Again, I am actually curious. If you’ve seen him, I’d be curious on
a) Which game (just to get a feel)
b) Your overall thoughts on his stuff
by toonsterwu on
Aug 20, 2008 3:20 PM EDT
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Like I said before
Havent see him except a couple clips, every report Ive read is underwhelming.
Id be interested to read these reports youre talking about. Also, I am curious as well, have you seen him pitch?
by alskor on
Aug 20, 2008 3:29 PM EDT
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When I get home
I’ll dig around, but I’m almost certain I’ve seen it noted in several places that he was consistently hitting 93-94 on his fastball.
And as I’ve said, I haven’t seen Zach pitch this year (see above comments). Hence why I am actually just curious if anyone has, because it seems like most folks here are basing it off past reports (not you in particular, but general comments on Zach on here seemed based off his past reports, which are helpful, but not perfect).
by toonsterwu on
Aug 20, 2008 4:04 PM EDT
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McAllister is a guy
who certainly has to do it in the upper levels of the minors before gaining much recognition, which is definitely fair because there are plenty of guys with low ERAs in high A. What I like about him is his young age (still 20, will begin next season in AA and be 21 the entire season) as well as his projectable frame (he is actually bigger than Phil Hughes). He has reportedly already gained a few ticks on his fastball over the past year, sitting comfortably 90-93 with occasional 94s but not too often. And finally, his command, which is usually what comes last for any 20 year old.
He has all of the tools for success and all of the things that you really can’t teach, and any time a young pitcher’s best offspeed pitch is his changeup he becomes one to watch IMO. I think he is kind of similar to Kennedy in the sense that both aren’t overpowering and both rely heavily on command, but the reason I feel that McAllister’s ceiling is as a #3 (as of now) while Kennedy’s is merely a #4/5 is because McAllister is much bigger, already throws 2-3 mph harder, and is much much more of a GB pitcher.
He’s a pretty intriguing prospect right now, but certainly not a top prospect by any means, but he could be on some radars at some point.
by tmacdaman1 on
Aug 20, 2008 4:05 PM EDT
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Another point...
Yankee-haters, we get it. But 2006 Yankee draft is special for them since the Yankee draft before for long time had been very stale and it has been a successful draft for them. Don’t go throwing 2005 Sox draft roster at me
by McLoving on Aug 20, 2008 1:43 PM EDT 0 recs
Yes, of course
Everyone who disagrees with your assessment of these players is a “Yankee-hater.”
by alskor on
Aug 20, 2008 2:57 PM EDT
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As a Mets fan....
I hate every other team in general. So, yes.
by Lunkwill Fook on
Aug 21, 2008 10:41 AM EDT
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