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Adam Dunn Traded

According to espn:

 

The Arizona Diamondbacks added a big bat Monday in their attempt to hold off the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West race.

Arizona acquired Cincinnati Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, who is tied for the major league lead with 32 home runs, for three prospects.

The trade was first reported by KTAR Radio in Phoenix.

 

Will be interesting to see who the prospects are. Perhaps Gerardo Parra? Could be a nice CF in time for the Reds...

2 recs  |  Comment 83 comments

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Waivers

Dunn passed through waivers easily enough. I’m surprised other teams didn’t take a shot at him.

by Lunkwill Fook on Aug 11, 2008 2:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He was claimed by the D'Backs

So the only contender he slipped by was the Dodgers.

by dkdc on Aug 11, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

not really

only 9 teams passed on him and those teams were mostly non-contenders who would’ve gained nothing by adding, and paying for, two months of Adam Dunn.

The only real contender that passed was LA and they have an over-stocked OF already. They could’ve claimed Dunn to block him from the D-Backs but they are cash-strapped and it would’ve been a waste to risk getting stuck with the salary of yet another expensive OF who you don’t have room for.

by nms on Aug 11, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

oops

i didn’t see dkdc’s post when i posted that

by nms on Aug 11, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, when you put it like that

It sort of does surprise me that Ned Colletti didnt claim him…

by alskor on Aug 12, 2008 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, sorta

I mean, if someone had just claimed him and then not offered any trade, the DBacks would have just pulled him back. The other teams presumably know this and, as they were unwilling to give up anything more than the draft picks they would presumably be buying, they just passed. In the end, the claiming team would accomplish nothing but pissing off the Reds and any team that actually wanted Dunn for the stretch run.

I dunno. Maybe if someone wanted to try to make a deal that was essentially draft picks for cash (Dunn’s salary) there could have been something worked out. But I would also guess that GMs have something of a “gentleman’s agreement” to not dick around with waiver claims at this point in the year.

by mraver on Aug 12, 2008 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dallas Buck

KTAR reported he was one of the prospects.

#269

by mrmetaa on Aug 11, 2008 2:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ayup

Dallas Buck and two P’stbNL, according to ESPN.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3529966

"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)

by drjayphd on Aug 11, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

jarrod parker is a name to watch going the other way

i think he would need to be included as a PTBNL because of the fact that he didn’t sign until august 15 of last year.

by variablesdont on Aug 11, 2008 3:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

f-ck no

why the hell would the dbacks include their best prospect for a rental of dunn? think a little here

by ScottAZ on Aug 11, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If it's not Parker or Scherzer, then f-ck no from a Reds perspective

With 2 first round picks coming if Dunn leaves via free agency and not much in the Diamondbacks system past Parker, Scherzer and Parra, I’ll be pissed if one of them isn’t included. Actually I’ll be pissed if it’s not Parker or Scherzer as the Reds system is loaded with prospects similar to Parra.

by joerote on Aug 11, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I doubt it...

I don’t think the Dbacks would deal Parker for Dunn…

If they were willing to give up Parker for a bat I think Manny, or Bay might be in Arz. right now.

by znyfan on Aug 11, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm doubting it too

Which is why I’m probably going to be pissed. Buck is interesting but he’s far from a top prospect at this point.

by joerote on Aug 11, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Response

Dallas Buck is a nice prospect to pick up here . . .would’ve been a first rounder if not for his elbow, which is now fixed. Effective pitcher at low levels with good looking peripherals. Should get an interesting test at AA sometime next year. Evidently the Reds like him a lot.

by mrkupe on Aug 11, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well

doing this would save a few mil, plus the two pick you’d get for Dunn (or any FA) aren’t especially great. Buck alone is similar in value to a supplemental rounder.

by nms on Aug 11, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the deal included an increased possibility for Dunn signing a long-term contract

then that would definitely be a fair price. Adam Dunn is one of the best hitters in the major leagues – getting him without giving up any top prospects would be robbery

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 11, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

are you on drugs

Dunn is very overrated. Sure he hits Homers and draws walks, but what else does he do. He’s a seive as a defensive player and can’t run worth a crap.

by Bravesin07 on Aug 11, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes?

Everything else you said has been argued about so many times, and I so disagree with what you’re saying about Dunn’s offensive potential that I see little reason to make the case again

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 11, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

POTD

congratulations fine sir, you have won yourself a post of the day award

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Aug 12, 2008 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And all it took

was pretending to be on drugs

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 12, 2008 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dunn is not overrated

He is what he is. Ask JP Riccardi if he’s overrated. Still a useful player, one dimensional but serviceable. If Eckstein can still manage to get 4 million for his “grit”. I’m sure Dunn could get something decent somewhere else.

by achengy on Aug 11, 2008 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your even selling him short

Eckstein is a dime a dozen! Yeah he is a niche player but there are a hundred guys that fit in that niche. Dunn can be argued as a niche guy but how many others are out there like him?

How many 45+ HR guys are there in the league? This isn’t ‘98 when there were a million guys hitting 40+ homers. He is not Richie Sexson either as Dunn gets on base. What more do you want. He plays average defense, look at the numbers!, hits 40 homers, drives in 100 runs batting behind guys with terrible OBP (Phillips and Griffey), and is always getting on base. Once again what more do you want?

by kennythered on Aug 11, 2008 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that is complete nonsense

I know some people don’t like that the media and fans applaud Eckstien’s work ethic and grit but it is nonsense to paint him as if he is a utility infielder or something. Complete nonsense.

Guys who can play a MLB-level shortstop and get on-base at a career rate of over .350 are NOT a dime a dozen.

by nms on Aug 12, 2008 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

even so

that simply isn’t true. You can say it all you want, but there aren’t that many guys like that out there.

by nms on Aug 12, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, seriously…who wants a guy who hits a bunch of homers and draws a bunch of walks?!

by jonk1982 on Aug 11, 2008 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's recap

Arizona needed someone to hit the crap out of the ball. Not necessarily a high-average hitter, but someone that homers.

Adam Dunn hits homers. Lots of ‘em. In lieu of Doug Mirabelli (dunno if anyone else is familiar with this joke), if you need a stud who hits bombs, Dunn’s just fine in that department. The OBP keeps him useful even when he doesn’t go deep. I’m sure a lot of teams could benefit from a player like that.

"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)

by drjayphd on Aug 12, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As do I

(kills it)

"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)

by drjayphd on Aug 14, 2008 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My question.....

If it’s not Parker, then who could it be?

It can’t be any of this year’s draftees, since PTBNL’s have to be announced within 6 months.

If it was any other prospect, why not just announce him? The season’s coming to a close, so I can’t imagine there’s much to be gained by watching the next few weeks if it’s a “pick-1-from-a-list-of-6” type PTBNL deal.

Parker’s the only one who makes sense, isn’t he?

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Aug 11, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Response

He’s about the only one who wouldn’t make sense, actually. And if it was him, chances are it would’ve been reported already even if it isn’t official just yet.

This whole thing kind of reminds me of all the Indians fans on here last year hoping that the Indians somehow got like Adam Jones for Ben Broussard, lol.

And yes, it’s entirely possible that it could be a pick-from-a-list sort of deal if the Reds haven’t gotten to see all the players in question as much as they want to. Chances are this deal came together very quickly given that it came after July 31, so the Reds might have a list of names on paper but not much else to go on.

by mrkupe on Aug 11, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Response to the response

The D-Backs get 2 months of Dunn’s services in a playoff race, plus 2 high draft picks for letting him walk. Why is one really good prospect such a ridiculous return for that? The Dodgers gave one up for 2 months of Manny. Dunn’s a lot closer to Manny at this point than he is to Ben Broussard.

Obviously, it’s all speculation at this point. I could very well be wrong. In fact, I probably am. But I don’t think Parker is “about the only one who wouldn’t make sense.”

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Aug 11, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Response

Andy LaRoche has been debated to death on here . . .but to be succinct, there are widely varying opinions on just how good he is at this point. Some think he’s rather damaged goods. Post-hype sleeper, perhaps, but for a lot of people (the Dodgers included evidently) the bloom is off the rose.

I still think my explanation makes the most sense. The two teams were under a strict deadline to get a deal done, time was almost up, the Reds hadn’t decided just who else they wanted out of the deal, so the players are on a list and once the Reds decide, they’ll be added on as the PTBLs.

by mrkupe on Aug 11, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"I still think my explanation makes the most sense."

I agree, but that’s a long way from your initial reaction; which was that I’m an idiot for even bringing it up as a possibility.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Aug 11, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Response

I said nothing of the sort. I only said that it didn’t make sense. And then explained why I felt that way.

If you’d like to insult yourself, feel free. But I had no animosity towards you.

by mrkupe on Aug 11, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Apologies if I read something into it that wasn't there,

But with the snark of the first sentence (“yeah, what you said, only the exact opposite”), and the parallel you drew between my suggestion and Indians fans thinking they were getting Adam Jones for Ben Broussard (lol), I thought your implication was clear.

I’m probably just a little defensive today. My favorite team, in the past 48 hours, has hired possibly the worst executive in the history of baseball (while already employing the worst field manager in baseball), and traded the best player on the team for what appears to be a bag of low-upside magic beans. Please, cut me some slack today.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Aug 11, 2008 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rumor is

The players have been agreed upon and are on the 40 man, but they are not aloud to be on teh 25 man. Owings? Scherzer(arm injury dropping his value and the Backs get to keep him for the rest of the year?)

by kennythered on Aug 11, 2008 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Owings

Owings was rumoured to be in the Teixeira package so there could be something to that. Whatever the return it should at least equal 2 high draft picks. My initial reaction was that Scherzer had to be involved.

by DeJay on Aug 12, 2008 5:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be shocked if Parker went

What you’re likely to see is a package that’s a step up (but not a big step up) from a late-first round plus a sandwich round pick. The Reds get a marginal upgrade from their draft picks and some salary relief. The DBacks get a big bat for the stretch run and some draft picks. No top prospects, nothing like that.

by mraver on Aug 12, 2008 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Funny.

As an Atlanta fan, all this hopeful chatter from the Cincy peeps reminds me of what Braves fans were saying when Arizona was the rumored landing spot for Tex. I told them then what I’ll tell you now: there’s no way you get Parker or Scherzer for two months of Dunn and two draft picks. Correct me if I’m wrong, but the success rate of first round picks are 30% for position players and 20% for pitchers. People overvalue picks because they don’t understand them well enough, is the thing.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Aug 11, 2008 5:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

odds

those may be the odds… but once a pick starts performing teams have a much better indication of how they will fair.

odds are always changing.

by znyfan on Aug 11, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What's the success rate.....

for 19 year old pitchers in low-A ball?

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Aug 11, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

better than that

of a late first round pick

by nms on Aug 11, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure.....

but how about 2 late first round picks and 2 months of a legit offensive force in the prime of his career?

Citing the success rate of first rounders as evidence that I don’t understand draft pick valuation without mentioning the success rate of guys with Parker’s profile is rather disingenuous, IMO.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Aug 11, 2008 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Timing is everything

Injuries and the Manny trade really upped the ante for the DBacks getting a bat. The probably didnt need Dunn/Teixeira to win the division until the Dodgers got Manny.

by kennythered on Aug 12, 2008 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Makes me wonder where the Mets were

while Dallas Buck was the head of a trade for Adam Dunn…

by METSMETSMETS on Aug 11, 2008 10:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He wont be the head

at minimum Owings will be added. AT MINIMUM

by kennythered on Aug 11, 2008 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

owings

he cant be traded. hes played in an MLB game this year. same with scherzer.

by AZDBACKS on Aug 12, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure about that?

Can you play a game in the majors, pass through waivers, then be a PtbNL? Doesn’t make any sense why you’d bother waiting to name him, but could it be done legally?

"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)

by drjayphd on Aug 12, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Arizona had higer waiver priority

And we do not know who the PTBNL is

by mtk52983 on Aug 12, 2008 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dunn versus Manny

Someone above mentioned what the Dodgers gave up for Manny, and I think it’s quite relevant to the question of whether the Reds are getting a good prospect for a PTNL. Manny and Dunn are similar players, with Dunn better on defense and equivalent on offense even with the low BA. The D-backs have to pay more money for Dunn than the Dodgers have to pay for Manny (that being $0), so they presumably don’t have to give up as much for it to be even.

LaRoche certainly has his issues and his detractors, but he’s generally viewed as a likely above-average 3B who’s major league ready, if he can stay healthy. (And he’s certainly not proving he can so far, but we’re talking about value at the time of trade.) That’s worth a lot more than Dallas Buck, and I’m a Dallas Buck fan. In fact, you could argue that Buck is worth about the same as Bryan Morris, the second-best player the Dodgers gave up. So, from that perspective, you might think that a better player than Buck is also on his way to the Reds.

Of course, there’s complicating factors. Market value can vary a lot depending on GMs, and teams can value players very differently from what you’d expect. The Indians probably got more for two-plus months of Sabathia than the Twins got for a whole year of Santana. And the D-Backs themselves gave up practically nothing to get a year-plus of Jon Rauch in the middle of a pennant race.

Plus, the Reds had to trade with the D-Backs or hold onto Dunn, pay him more money, and get nothing but two draft picks in exchange. They couldn’t play any teams against each other, so the D-Backs had a lot of leverage: the Reds’ only question was getting more in money and prospects from the D-Backs than the value (by THEIR valuation, remember) of two draft picks, which could come anywhere from 16th to 75th.

So are the Reds getting Jarrod Parker? Who knows. There are so many factors at work here. I’d bet not, but it’s not hard to argue that they should. Nor is it hard to argue that they shouldn’t.

Just my seven cents.

by abbreviatedman on Aug 11, 2008 10:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good Stuff

I feel like this is an argument for the Reds getting a decent PTBNL. I think it could be Parker actually. The Reds are paying half of his salary and the DBacks needed this to spark their team to stay out in front of the Dodgers.
(The Dodgers are dumb, the should have claimed Dunn and offered nothing, the Reds would have pulled him back and they would have blocked the DBacks)

2 Months of Dunn + Postseason
2 Draft Picks / a Dunn extension / or 1 year of Dunn if he accepts Arbitration
2 Million Dollars

Dallas Buck and 2 PTBNL

I agree that Dunn =’s Manny’s production at this point in their careers. Dunn has proven to be a slightly above average fielder this year, look at the numbers, and he has 50 HR power and is always on base. He is also excited to get out of Cincy to a contender.

If the Reds paid zero salary I would feel this is a little more of a dump but instead they ate money causing me to believe they will be getting a top prospect and at minimum Micah Owings, though I’m not a fan.

If the Reds did not get a top guy they got robbed. Once again this thread proves that Dunn is one of the most underrated guys in baseball. He will get signed in FA to a deal that is too cheap and prove to whatever team he signs with that he is a great player.

by kennythered on Aug 11, 2008 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also

The Red Sox could offer Manny arbitration next year, netting them 2 draft picks. That is a huge negotiating plus for the Reds.

2 Months of Dunn + Postseason, 2 Draft Picks / a Dunn extension / or 1 year of Dunn if he accepts Arbitration, 2 Million Dollars = More than 2 months of Manny for free.

by kennythered on Aug 11, 2008 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dunn is not as good as Man Ram

I will ignore the defensive part because I don’t trust defensive metrics so it’s all preference.

But Dunn is no where near as good as Manny on offense. Dunn has barely knocked in 100 runs three times in his career. And has never knocked in over 106. Manny has like 9 seasons of knocking in more than that. He has averaged 36 more RBI a season than Dunn. Yes, I know that here is where the whole “team concept” gets mentioned. But I think the major difference in RBI between the two comes from the fact that Manny doesn’t have to get his OBP by walks, he gets hits. He can knock guys in from 2nd and 3rd.

Careers:
Manny 313/409/591 with 39 doubles and 40 homers a year
Dunn 247/380/520 with 29 doubles and 40 homers a year

How is Dunn Manny’s equivalent on offense?

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Aug 12, 2008 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

RBIs? Career numbers?

You can’t compare RBIs when one guy has the Youkilises and Ortizes of the world batting in front of him, while the other has to try to drive in the occasionally-on-base Corey Pattersons of the world.

And the career numbers are assuming that Manny’s going to hit like the late-90s/early-00s Manny of five-plus years ago.

Reality is that the last two years, Manny has OBP-ed .388 and .412, while Dunn has OBP-ed .386 and .373. Manny has slugged .493 and .560, while Dunn has OBP-ed .554 and .528. Advantage Manny, but not by very much at all.

Then count in their defense, which is not “all preference”, like no one can tell at all. Not that Dunn is a worldbeater on defense, but he can play 1B and isn’t quite as bad a LF as Manny. Advantage Dunn, if, again, not by very much.

It’s like the Manny/Bay argument. The only people who don’t realize it’s a wash are the people who think that Manny’s the Manny of old. It was amazing how for most of the season, people were talking about how his bat had slowed and he couldn’t catch up to good fastballs anymore. And then he was traded, and all of a sudden, it was: how could you trade a HOF hitter?

by abbreviatedman on Aug 12, 2008 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice.... but not.

First off, Youkilis hits behind Manny most of the time. So I don’t see how Manny is knocking him in a lot. Also, this is Patterson’s first year in Cinci, so it’s not like he has been hurting that offense for years.

If you took two teams that were exactly the same, and the only difference was that Manny was your LF on one team and Dunn was your LF on the other, I guarantee you that the overall team performance of the team with Manny would be better, and so would Manny’s numbers. Manny has the ability to knock in more RBIs (people seem to forget that you need to score runs to win games) because he gets more hits. Walks are nice, but you can’t move a runner from 1st to 3rd on a walk. You can’t knock in a runner from 2nd on a walk. Manny will do things like that more often than Dunn will, so his his team will score more runs and he will have more RBIs.

Not all OBPs were created equally. Walking is great, but I will take a hit over a walk any day of the week and twice on Sunday. And Manny gets more hits and has a higher OBP than Dunn.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Aug 12, 2008 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He isn't the old Manny look at his numbers this season!

And Dunn was hitting behind Phillips and an inept Griffey this whole season and that is the best two players the Reds have ever put in front of him, and niether get on base.

Just wait until the end of the year. Dunn will do the samethings for Ari that Manny is doign for LA.

by kennythered on Aug 12, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dunn vs. Manny

I’m sorry but Manny is a far better hitter than Dunn. Having said that, I think Dunn is very underrated and am amazed that more teams weren’t interested in him. A guy that smacks 40 hr’s and is an on base machine defenitely has value and he will help out the D’Backs but he’s no Manny Ramirez. Period.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Aug 12, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

why are people saying Parker?

Parker isn’t on the 40 man roster. There would be absolutely no reason to have him be a PTBN. The entire purpose of the PTBN is that it’s someone on the 40 man.

by Galt on Aug 11, 2008 11:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The rules of PTBNL

They have to be named in 6 months and they have to switch leagues, so technically it can not be anyone on the 25 man roster. There is a rumor it is 2 guys on the 40, just not the 25 man, but it still could be 2 minor leaguers, they just have not been agreed upon yet.

by kennythered on Aug 11, 2008 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because Parker signed August 15 last year

And can’t be dealt yet for another few days.

I don’t think it’s him anyways.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 11, 2008 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Parker

If Parker was available then Mark Teixera would be the starting 1B for the DBacks right now and they wouldn’t have to claim Dunn. I can’t see how they would refuse to include Parker for Teixera, and little less than a month later trade him for Dunn. It makes no sense.

by JFP on Aug 11, 2008 11:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i dont think parker is in the deal

i bet its scherzer and the other 2 wouldnt matter so much haha

Happiness is only real when shared

by manny59 on Aug 11, 2008 11:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I could see it

The Scherzer arm/sholder thing could make him slightly more expendable than Parker in the Dbacks eyes, plus they would get to pitch him for the rest of this season.

by kennythered on Aug 11, 2008 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Response

I couldn’t see this one at all . . .like, what happens if Scherzer hurts his arm again during this season? Do the Reds let the Dbacks handle the medical treatment of a guy who’s actually Cincy property? If he has a serious injury, the Reds end up getting damaged goods . . .do they then have a contingency plan? And why would the Reds want a guy who’s likely only tradable because of injury concerns – and then allow the other team to use the guy as they wish for the next 3 months? If he does remain healthy, do the Dbacks use Scherzer significantly more heavily than they would otherwise, knowing that they don’t care about what happens to him after this year?

Owings seems like a decent possibility, but do the Reds really want him all that much either? I guess he’s a major league pitcher, but he’s a 4-5 starter or a reliever with the fringe benefit of a good bat for a pitcher.

by mrkupe on Aug 12, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sure

If he were injured there would be a contingency plan, of other prospects, and he would have to pass a physical, I think it could work but it’d be tricky. The Reds would probably set perameters for the trade.

Also the more I htink about the more I’d be willing to bet its Owings plus a marginal player. Both guys are rumored to be on teh 40 man roster but are not a loud to be on the 25 man. So we will see. My bet is Owings and Vasquez or Owings and Wilkin Castillo. I don’t like that deal as a Reds fan as seeing Owings looked like shit before he got sent down and his mechanics are way out of wack.

by kennythered on Aug 12, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Response

It sounds like you’re not going to like any deal that doesn’t involve the Reds getting back a premium prospect (Parker or Scherzer) in addition to already-pretty-good-prospect Dallas Buck. And frankly that’s a little much to hope for in a deal that’s bringing back two months of one player. You may bring up the point of draft picks that can be had in compensation for losing Dunn in free agency . . .but that also means risking handing Dunn what would undoubtedly be a huge sum in arbitration and also, as has been mentioned here by other posters, draft picks are risky. You really do not know 100 percent what you have unless you’re drafting at the very top of the draft (where you pay a huge premium for perceived certainty) or the guy has been playing for you for a year.

Buck would have been a top 50 pick a couple of years ago if not for the lingering elbow issue. He’s pitched very effectively both pre- and post-injury in the minors with strong peripherals. Owings was drafted 3rd round and has already had a full season of work in the majors. He’s versatile enough to be used as either a back of the rotation arm or an effective bullpen guy. He’s nothing special but he’s a major league player in some capacity.

In other words, if the Reds are getting back Buck, Owings and another player for their two months of Adam Dunn, they’re doing just fine and they’re almost certainly doing significantly better than they would if they were to take the draft picks.

by mrkupe on Aug 12, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Arbitration risk?

In my opinion, offering Dunn arbitration is a no-brainer. There’s no way he accepts arbitration considering he’s going to get a four- or five-year deal, at least, coming off five straight (probably) 40-homer seasons and being under 30. He’s not going to get a better deal the following offseason. Easy call for team and player.

by abbreviatedman on Aug 12, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Huh?
It sounds like you’re not going to like any deal that doesn’t involve the Reds getting back a premium prospect (Parker or Scherzer) in addition to already-pretty-good-prospect Dallas Buck. And frankly that’s a little much to hope for in a deal that’s bringing back two months of one player.

But then, you “strengthen” your position with this
draft picks are risky…Buck would have been a top 50 pick a couple of years ago if not for the lingering elbow issue…Owings was drafted 3rd round and has already had a full season of work in the majors. He’s versatile enough to be used as either a back of the rotation arm or an effective bullpen guy. He’s nothing special but he’s a major league player in some capacity.
So…
  • Draft picks are risky, so the Reds should let Dunn go for nothing, especially since it’s only for 2 months.
  • The Reds should be happy to get two guys who were percieved as lower talents than what they’d get with those “risky draft picks” – in other words, they are riskier than the picks the Reds would have otherwise gotten.
  • Meanwhile, the DBacks get Dunn, an absolutely neccessary bat in the middle of a weak lineup, for a pennant drive (while paying only half of his salary) and get those two, better, draft picks. And that’s OK with you.

I agree with a poster above. If the Reds needed to pay some salary, they sure better get an A prospect back.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Aug 12, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Response

Yes, draft picks are risky. And no, the Reds should not let Adam Dunn go for “nothing”. The mistake you’re making is that you’re trying to pretend that anything less than a truly premium prospect amounts to “nothing”.

Dallas Buck is a good prospect and Owings is a 25 year old major league caliber pitcher with less than 2 full years of service time. They’re not “lower talents” by any means, they are two guys who stand a pretty good chance of having substantial major league careers. Buck was a sandwich round pick caliber player on talent and merit. You’re acting like Owings would be drafted in the third round today, which just isn’t true. The evaluation was off on him and he is better than many of the guys drafted ahead of him, despite his warts.

The draft picks might amount to something better than them . . .but the odds say most likely not.

by mrkupe on Aug 12, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well...

No no no, I merely disagree on Buck and Owings’ value with you and beyond them there really is not any value in the DBacks system besides Scherzer/Parker that I would want or find equivalent to Dunn. Owings has really fallen apart and the way he pitched before he got sent down shows he is a huge risk right now, though not as risky as a draft pick no doubt, but risky none the less. I would also argue that Buck is even riskier than a supplemental draft pick with his terrible elbow and I am sure the third player in the deal will not be much of a prospect at all.

To the Poster above, Dunn is not an Arbitration risk and besides if he accepted the DBacks would probably be ecstatic! What a risk, Dunn may actually accept! The guy has only hit more HR’s in baseball over the last 5 years than anyone else. A middle of the order bat who will be on base and hit 40 Homers, man I wouldn’t want him to accept arbitration.

by kennythered on Aug 12, 2008 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Owings

Maybe they plan on converting him to an every day player. Hell, they need outfielders now and he’s a hell of a lot better with the stick than w/ the arm.

Who’d have thought last yr. that the Reds would need outfielders.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Aug 12, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

*breaking* Owings in deal

Sounds fair to me, per my Manny/Dunn analysis earlier in this thread. Both Manny and Dunn brought back a major-league-ready better-than-average player and a coming-back-from-injury pitching prospect.

by abbreviatedman on Aug 12, 2008 8:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Do you mean Teixeira?

Manny got back Bay. Bay got back Andy Laroche, but also 2 reasonably good pitching prospects and an extra outfield prospect

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 12, 2008 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wondered if I was putting things confusingly.

What I meant was that the Dodgers GAVE UP a similar package to get Manny back. They gave up LaRoche and Morris. The D-Backs gave up Owings and Buck (and a PTBNL). So similar packages, I’d say.

by abbreviatedman on Aug 12, 2008 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sorry

I misunderstood. That makes a lot more sense

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 12, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

PLAYER POOL!

from Baseball America

“The Arizona Star reported that both players to be named are members of the Diamondbacks’ 40-man roster, but not its active 25-man roster. That player pool is highlighted by: righthanders Max Scherzer, Micah Owings, Esmerling Vasquez, Emiliano Fruto, Juan Gutierrez and Jailen Peguero; catcher Wilkin Castillo and first basemen Javier Brito and Josh Whitesell.”

#269

by mrmetaa on Aug 12, 2008 10:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Man

I reported that days ago, that makes me more qualified than all the Cincinnati media, because they are the worst in the nation, seriously!

by kennythered on Aug 12, 2008 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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