Adam Dunn Traded
by benzalman on Aug 11, 2008 2:45 PM EDT
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PrintAccording to espn:
The Arizona Diamondbacks added a big bat Monday in their attempt to hold off the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West race.
Arizona acquired Cincinnati Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, who is tied for the major league lead with 32 home runs, for three prospects.
The trade was first reported by KTAR Radio in Phoenix.
Will be interesting to see who the prospects are. Perhaps Gerardo Parra? Could be a nice CF in time for the Reds...
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Waivers
Dunn passed through waivers easily enough. I’m surprised other teams didn’t take a shot at him.
He was claimed by the D'Backs
So the only contender he slipped by was the Dodgers.
not really
only 9 teams passed on him and those teams were mostly non-contenders who would’ve gained nothing by adding, and paying for, two months of Adam Dunn.
The only real contender that passed was LA and they have an over-stocked OF already. They could’ve claimed Dunn to block him from the D-Backs but they are cash-strapped and it would’ve been a waste to risk getting stuck with the salary of yet another expensive OF who you don’t have room for.
Well, sorta
I mean, if someone had just claimed him and then not offered any trade, the DBacks would have just pulled him back. The other teams presumably know this and, as they were unwilling to give up anything more than the draft picks they would presumably be buying, they just passed. In the end, the claiming team would accomplish nothing but pissing off the Reds and any team that actually wanted Dunn for the stretch run.
I dunno. Maybe if someone wanted to try to make a deal that was essentially draft picks for cash (Dunn’s salary) there could have been something worked out. But I would also guess that GMs have something of a “gentleman’s agreement” to not dick around with waiver claims at this point in the year.
Ayup
Dallas Buck and two P’stbNL, according to ESPN.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3529966
"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)
Funny.
As an Atlanta fan, all this hopeful chatter from the Cincy peeps reminds me of what Braves fans were saying when Arizona was the rumored landing spot for Tex. I told them then what I’ll tell you now: there’s no way you get Parker or Scherzer for two months of Dunn and two draft picks. Correct me if I’m wrong, but the success rate of first round picks are 30% for position players and 20% for pitchers. People overvalue picks because they don’t understand them well enough, is the thing.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
What's the success rate.....
for 19 year old pitchers in low-A ball?
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
Sure.....
but how about 2 late first round picks and 2 months of a legit offensive force in the prime of his career?
Citing the success rate of first rounders as evidence that I don’t understand draft pick valuation without mentioning the success rate of guys with Parker’s profile is rather disingenuous, IMO.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
Timing is everything
Injuries and the Manny trade really upped the ante for the DBacks getting a bat. The probably didnt need Dunn/Teixeira to win the division until the Dodgers got Manny.
by kennythered on Aug 12, 2008 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Makes me wonder where the Mets were
while Dallas Buck was the head of a trade for Adam Dunn…
He wont be the head
at minimum Owings will be added. AT MINIMUM
by kennythered on Aug 11, 2008 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
owings
he cant be traded. hes played in an MLB game this year. same with scherzer.
Sure about that?
Can you play a game in the majors, pass through waivers, then be a PtbNL? Doesn’t make any sense why you’d bother waiting to name him, but could it be done legally?
"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)
Arizona had higer waiver priority
And we do not know who the PTBNL is
Dunn versus Manny
Someone above mentioned what the Dodgers gave up for Manny, and I think it’s quite relevant to the question of whether the Reds are getting a good prospect for a PTNL. Manny and Dunn are similar players, with Dunn better on defense and equivalent on offense even with the low BA. The D-backs have to pay more money for Dunn than the Dodgers have to pay for Manny (that being $0), so they presumably don’t have to give up as much for it to be even.
LaRoche certainly has his issues and his detractors, but he’s generally viewed as a likely above-average 3B who’s major league ready, if he can stay healthy. (And he’s certainly not proving he can so far, but we’re talking about value at the time of trade.) That’s worth a lot more than Dallas Buck, and I’m a Dallas Buck fan. In fact, you could argue that Buck is worth about the same as Bryan Morris, the second-best player the Dodgers gave up. So, from that perspective, you might think that a better player than Buck is also on his way to the Reds.
Of course, there’s complicating factors. Market value can vary a lot depending on GMs, and teams can value players very differently from what you’d expect. The Indians probably got more for two-plus months of Sabathia than the Twins got for a whole year of Santana. And the D-Backs themselves gave up practically nothing to get a year-plus of Jon Rauch in the middle of a pennant race.
Plus, the Reds had to trade with the D-Backs or hold onto Dunn, pay him more money, and get nothing but two draft picks in exchange. They couldn’t play any teams against each other, so the D-Backs had a lot of leverage: the Reds’ only question was getting more in money and prospects from the D-Backs than the value (by THEIR valuation, remember) of two draft picks, which could come anywhere from 16th to 75th.
So are the Reds getting Jarrod Parker? Who knows. There are so many factors at work here. I’d bet not, but it’s not hard to argue that they should. Nor is it hard to argue that they shouldn’t.
Just my seven cents.
by abbreviatedman on Aug 11, 2008 10:59 PM EDT reply actions
Good Stuff
I feel like this is an argument for the Reds getting a decent PTBNL. I think it could be Parker actually. The Reds are paying half of his salary and the DBacks needed this to spark their team to stay out in front of the Dodgers.
(The Dodgers are dumb, the should have claimed Dunn and offered nothing, the Reds would have pulled him back and they would have blocked the DBacks)
2 Months of Dunn + Postseason
2 Draft Picks / a Dunn extension / or 1 year of Dunn if he accepts Arbitration
2 Million Dollars
Dallas Buck and 2 PTBNL
I agree that Dunn =’s Manny’s production at this point in their careers. Dunn has proven to be a slightly above average fielder this year, look at the numbers, and he has 50 HR power and is always on base. He is also excited to get out of Cincy to a contender.
If the Reds paid zero salary I would feel this is a little more of a dump but instead they ate money causing me to believe they will be getting a top prospect and at minimum Micah Owings, though I’m not a fan.
If the Reds did not get a top guy they got robbed. Once again this thread proves that Dunn is one of the most underrated guys in baseball. He will get signed in FA to a deal that is too cheap and prove to whatever team he signs with that he is a great player.
by kennythered on Aug 11, 2008 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
The Red Sox could offer Manny arbitration next year, netting them 2 draft picks. That is a huge negotiating plus for the Reds.
2 Months of Dunn + Postseason, 2 Draft Picks / a Dunn extension / or 1 year of Dunn if he accepts Arbitration, 2 Million Dollars = More than 2 months of Manny for free.
by kennythered on Aug 11, 2008 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Dunn is not as good as Man Ram
I will ignore the defensive part because I don’t trust defensive metrics so it’s all preference.
But Dunn is no where near as good as Manny on offense. Dunn has barely knocked in 100 runs three times in his career. And has never knocked in over 106. Manny has like 9 seasons of knocking in more than that. He has averaged 36 more RBI a season than Dunn. Yes, I know that here is where the whole “team concept” gets mentioned. But I think the major difference in RBI between the two comes from the fact that Manny doesn’t have to get his OBP by walks, he gets hits. He can knock guys in from 2nd and 3rd.
Careers:
Manny 313/409/591 with 39 doubles and 40 homers a year
Dunn 247/380/520 with 29 doubles and 40 homers a year
How is Dunn Manny’s equivalent on offense?
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
RBIs? Career numbers?
You can’t compare RBIs when one guy has the Youkilises and Ortizes of the world batting in front of him, while the other has to try to drive in the occasionally-on-base Corey Pattersons of the world.
And the career numbers are assuming that Manny’s going to hit like the late-90s/early-00s Manny of five-plus years ago.
Reality is that the last two years, Manny has OBP-ed .388 and .412, while Dunn has OBP-ed .386 and .373. Manny has slugged .493 and .560, while Dunn has OBP-ed .554 and .528. Advantage Manny, but not by very much at all.
Then count in their defense, which is not “all preference”, like no one can tell at all. Not that Dunn is a worldbeater on defense, but he can play 1B and isn’t quite as bad a LF as Manny. Advantage Dunn, if, again, not by very much.
It’s like the Manny/Bay argument. The only people who don’t realize it’s a wash are the people who think that Manny’s the Manny of old. It was amazing how for most of the season, people were talking about how his bat had slowed and he couldn’t catch up to good fastballs anymore. And then he was traded, and all of a sudden, it was: how could you trade a HOF hitter?
by abbreviatedman on Aug 12, 2008 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice.... but not.
First off, Youkilis hits behind Manny most of the time. So I don’t see how Manny is knocking him in a lot. Also, this is Patterson’s first year in Cinci, so it’s not like he has been hurting that offense for years.
If you took two teams that were exactly the same, and the only difference was that Manny was your LF on one team and Dunn was your LF on the other, I guarantee you that the overall team performance of the team with Manny would be better, and so would Manny’s numbers. Manny has the ability to knock in more RBIs (people seem to forget that you need to score runs to win games) because he gets more hits. Walks are nice, but you can’t move a runner from 1st to 3rd on a walk. You can’t knock in a runner from 2nd on a walk. Manny will do things like that more often than Dunn will, so his his team will score more runs and he will have more RBIs.
Not all OBPs were created equally. Walking is great, but I will take a hit over a walk any day of the week and twice on Sunday. And Manny gets more hits and has a higher OBP than Dunn.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
He isn't the old Manny look at his numbers this season!
And Dunn was hitting behind Phillips and an inept Griffey this whole season and that is the best two players the Reds have ever put in front of him, and niether get on base.
Just wait until the end of the year. Dunn will do the samethings for Ari that Manny is doign for LA.
Dunn vs. Manny
I’m sorry but Manny is a far better hitter than Dunn. Having said that, I think Dunn is very underrated and am amazed that more teams weren’t interested in him. A guy that smacks 40 hr’s and is an on base machine defenitely has value and he will help out the D’Backs but he’s no Manny Ramirez. Period.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Aug 12, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
why are people saying Parker?
Parker isn’t on the 40 man roster. There would be absolutely no reason to have him be a PTBN. The entire purpose of the PTBN is that it’s someone on the 40 man.
The rules of PTBNL
They have to be named in 6 months and they have to switch leagues, so technically it can not be anyone on the 25 man roster. There is a rumor it is 2 guys on the 40, just not the 25 man, but it still could be 2 minor leaguers, they just have not been agreed upon yet.
by kennythered on Aug 11, 2008 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Because Parker signed August 15 last year
And can’t be dealt yet for another few days.
I don’t think it’s him anyways.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
Parker
If Parker was available then Mark Teixera would be the starting 1B for the DBacks right now and they wouldn’t have to claim Dunn. I can’t see how they would refuse to include Parker for Teixera, and little less than a month later trade him for Dunn. It makes no sense.
i dont think parker is in the deal
i bet its scherzer and the other 2 wouldnt matter so much haha
Happiness is only real when shared
I could see it
The Scherzer arm/sholder thing could make him slightly more expendable than Parker in the Dbacks eyes, plus they would get to pitch him for the rest of this season.
by kennythered on Aug 11, 2008 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Response
I couldn’t see this one at all . . .like, what happens if Scherzer hurts his arm again during this season? Do the Reds let the Dbacks handle the medical treatment of a guy who’s actually Cincy property? If he has a serious injury, the Reds end up getting damaged goods . . .do they then have a contingency plan? And why would the Reds want a guy who’s likely only tradable because of injury concerns – and then allow the other team to use the guy as they wish for the next 3 months? If he does remain healthy, do the Dbacks use Scherzer significantly more heavily than they would otherwise, knowing that they don’t care about what happens to him after this year?
Owings seems like a decent possibility, but do the Reds really want him all that much either? I guess he’s a major league pitcher, but he’s a 4-5 starter or a reliever with the fringe benefit of a good bat for a pitcher.
I'm sure
If he were injured there would be a contingency plan, of other prospects, and he would have to pass a physical, I think it could work but it’d be tricky. The Reds would probably set perameters for the trade.
Also the more I htink about the more I’d be willing to bet its Owings plus a marginal player. Both guys are rumored to be on teh 40 man roster but are not a loud to be on the 25 man. So we will see. My bet is Owings and Vasquez or Owings and Wilkin Castillo. I don’t like that deal as a Reds fan as seeing Owings looked like shit before he got sent down and his mechanics are way out of wack.
Response
It sounds like you’re not going to like any deal that doesn’t involve the Reds getting back a premium prospect (Parker or Scherzer) in addition to already-pretty-good-prospect Dallas Buck. And frankly that’s a little much to hope for in a deal that’s bringing back two months of one player. You may bring up the point of draft picks that can be had in compensation for losing Dunn in free agency . . .but that also means risking handing Dunn what would undoubtedly be a huge sum in arbitration and also, as has been mentioned here by other posters, draft picks are risky. You really do not know 100 percent what you have unless you’re drafting at the very top of the draft (where you pay a huge premium for perceived certainty) or the guy has been playing for you for a year.
Buck would have been a top 50 pick a couple of years ago if not for the lingering elbow issue. He’s pitched very effectively both pre- and post-injury in the minors with strong peripherals. Owings was drafted 3rd round and has already had a full season of work in the majors. He’s versatile enough to be used as either a back of the rotation arm or an effective bullpen guy. He’s nothing special but he’s a major league player in some capacity.
In other words, if the Reds are getting back Buck, Owings and another player for their two months of Adam Dunn, they’re doing just fine and they’re almost certainly doing significantly better than they would if they were to take the draft picks.
Arbitration risk?
In my opinion, offering Dunn arbitration is a no-brainer. There’s no way he accepts arbitration considering he’s going to get a four- or five-year deal, at least, coming off five straight (probably) 40-homer seasons and being under 30. He’s not going to get a better deal the following offseason. Easy call for team and player.
by abbreviatedman on Aug 12, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
It sounds like you’re not going to like any deal that doesn’t involve the Reds getting back a premium prospect (Parker or Scherzer) in addition to already-pretty-good-prospect Dallas Buck. And frankly that’s a little much to hope for in a deal that’s bringing back two months of one player.
But then, you “strengthen” your position with this
draft picks are risky…Buck would have been a top 50 pick a couple of years ago if not for the lingering elbow issue…Owings was drafted 3rd round and has already had a full season of work in the majors. He’s versatile enough to be used as either a back of the rotation arm or an effective bullpen guy. He’s nothing special but he’s a major league player in some capacity.So…
- Draft picks are risky, so the Reds should let Dunn go for nothing, especially since it’s only for 2 months.
- The Reds should be happy to get two guys who were percieved as lower talents than what they’d get with those “risky draft picks” – in other words, they are riskier than the picks the Reds would have otherwise gotten.
- Meanwhile, the DBacks get Dunn, an absolutely neccessary bat in the middle of a weak lineup, for a pennant drive (while paying only half of his salary) and get those two, better, draft picks. And that’s OK with you.
I agree with a poster above. If the Reds needed to pay some salary, they sure better get an A prospect back.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
Response
Yes, draft picks are risky. And no, the Reds should not let Adam Dunn go for “nothing”. The mistake you’re making is that you’re trying to pretend that anything less than a truly premium prospect amounts to “nothing”.
Dallas Buck is a good prospect and Owings is a 25 year old major league caliber pitcher with less than 2 full years of service time. They’re not “lower talents” by any means, they are two guys who stand a pretty good chance of having substantial major league careers. Buck was a sandwich round pick caliber player on talent and merit. You’re acting like Owings would be drafted in the third round today, which just isn’t true. The evaluation was off on him and he is better than many of the guys drafted ahead of him, despite his warts.
The draft picks might amount to something better than them . . .but the odds say most likely not.
Well...
No no no, I merely disagree on Buck and Owings’ value with you and beyond them there really is not any value in the DBacks system besides Scherzer/Parker that I would want or find equivalent to Dunn. Owings has really fallen apart and the way he pitched before he got sent down shows he is a huge risk right now, though not as risky as a draft pick no doubt, but risky none the less. I would also argue that Buck is even riskier than a supplemental draft pick with his terrible elbow and I am sure the third player in the deal will not be much of a prospect at all.
To the Poster above, Dunn is not an Arbitration risk and besides if he accepted the DBacks would probably be ecstatic! What a risk, Dunn may actually accept! The guy has only hit more HR’s in baseball over the last 5 years than anyone else. A middle of the order bat who will be on base and hit 40 Homers, man I wouldn’t want him to accept arbitration.
by kennythered on Aug 12, 2008 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Owings
Maybe they plan on converting him to an every day player. Hell, they need outfielders now and he’s a hell of a lot better with the stick than w/ the arm.
Who’d have thought last yr. that the Reds would need outfielders.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Aug 12, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
*breaking* Owings in deal
Sounds fair to me, per my Manny/Dunn analysis earlier in this thread. Both Manny and Dunn brought back a major-league-ready better-than-average player and a coming-back-from-injury pitching prospect.
Do you mean Teixeira?
Manny got back Bay. Bay got back Andy Laroche, but also 2 reasonably good pitching prospects and an extra outfield prospect
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Aug 12, 2008 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I wondered if I was putting things confusingly.
What I meant was that the Dodgers GAVE UP a similar package to get Manny back. They gave up LaRoche and Morris. The D-Backs gave up Owings and Buck (and a PTBNL). So similar packages, I’d say.
by abbreviatedman on Aug 12, 2008 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sorry
I misunderstood. That makes a lot more sense
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Aug 12, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions
PLAYER POOL!
from Baseball America
“The Arizona Star reported that both players to be named are members of the Diamondbacks’ 40-man roster, but not its active 25-man roster. That player pool is highlighted by: righthanders Max Scherzer, Micah Owings, Esmerling Vasquez, Emiliano Fruto, Juan Gutierrez and Jailen Peguero; catcher Wilkin Castillo and first basemen Javier Brito and Josh Whitesell.”
#269
Man
I reported that days ago, that makes me more qualified than all the Cincinnati media, because they are the worst in the nation, seriously!
by kennythered on Aug 12, 2008 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
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