Chris Carter the next great power hitter?

by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 10, 2008 10:24 PM EDT

he just hit his 34th hr tonight, his 6th hr in 30+ august ab's

he turns 22 after this season in late december.

he was taking alot of walks earlier in the season, but its plummeted to 12 walks over 140's ab's in the past 2 months.

he's finally broke that .270 avg barrier

post ASB: .315/.376/1.036 OPS

obviously the defense is an issue, he's shown progress with a strong throwing arm at 3b but 20 errors

is he then limited to a 1b/DH type?

if the bat is legit will his defense shortcomings be overlooked like a gamel/laporta have in the past?

what is the upside of keeping him longer in high A than a late season audition in AA?

2009 will be his full age 22 season in AA

is he a product of the cal league or do you expect the power/obp combo to continue at higher levels

he was a fringe top 100 prospect by BP preseason. where do you think he'll rank among top 100 lists after this?

what is your take on this guy?

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Carter%20%20RF&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=474892

1 recs | Comment 43 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Interestingly...

He played third base last night and then right field tonight. They seem to be trying him all over the field.

by tt68 on Aug 10, 2008 11:20 PM EDT 0 recs

But he’s been moved to 3B primarily and the word is the scouts think he can stick there. Im skeptical. They moved him before when Dolittle and him were at the same stop. Stockton is still loaded with Corner OF/1B types, too, so they tried him there and liked him there apparently. I think BP was the source. Ill try to find it.

Which, for me, pretty much completes it – Chris Carter IS Chris Davis!

by alskor on Aug 11, 2008 1:55 AM EDT up 0 recs

11 Errors in 34 Games

At third base . . . .

The thing is that Carter is batting even more amazing since switching to third.

by gunkdog on Aug 11, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

defense

My brother and I saw a Stockton game a few weeks ago. The bat was definitely there as he went deep, but we were also impressed by his defense at third. Might have been a flukey night, of course, but he absolutely robbed a guy of a base hit making a diving play to his right and then gunning him out at first. His movements looked very crisp and confident.

I would add though then when getting his autograph after the game, he was a bit of a douche to us. Josh Donaldson, however, was really nice about signing our ball (which we caught during bp).

by son.of.sourman on Aug 11, 2008 2:26 AM EDT 0 recs

oh

and there is actually a feature in the stockton program where carter breaks down his home run swing.

by son.of.sourman on Aug 11, 2008 2:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

Dunn

Is a right-handed Adam Dunn an accurate projection?

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Aug 11, 2008 2:46 AM EDT 0 recs

No

Adam Dunn can draw a walk.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Aug 11, 2008 9:00 AM EDT up 0 recs

Or I should say...

a lot more walks. Dunn makes up for his inability to hit over 240 by drawing walks.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Aug 11, 2008 9:23 AM EDT up 0 recs

Carter

can draw walks. Thats always been a strong point in his game. Even with a drop off in walks lately he’s at 64 BB’s in 116 G this season, and walked 67 times in 126 G last season. He looks to have his OBP 90-100 points higher then his AVG on a consistent basis at this point in his career. I also don’t think there is an “inability to hit” on Carter’s part. Yes he K’s a lot, which is something that I think everybody in the A’s organization would like to see him improve, but he hit .291 last season and has his average up into the mid .270’s this season. He’ll probably never be a .300 hitter, but he’s young for his league and is more then holding his own. He’s now 3rd in the entire MiLB in HR’s and has a legit chance to swat 40 HR this season in high A. Cal league or not, thats impressive.

by JPShark on Aug 11, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

He can walk, but he doesn't walk at the same rate as Dunn

It’s not to say that Carter won’t be able to cut it in upper levels, but I think Boxkutter is just saying it’s not a great comparison.

by thejd44 on Aug 11, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

If he repicates his production next year in AA

He could rise like Chris Davis and make a jump to the Show. The A’s really need an impact bat.

by AthleticsReign on Aug 11, 2008 3:00 AM EDT 0 recs

Possible comp

Carlos Lee II?

by BBFan1 on Aug 11, 2008 4:30 AM EDT 0 recs

I'd think

that Carter has more pop than Lee, but less of an ability to hit over .300.

by METSMETSMETS on Aug 11, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up 0 recs

And Lee doesn't walk very much

by thejd44 on Aug 11, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Call me skeptical

But I’m thinking more like Dean Palmer.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Aug 11, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up 0 recs

I like this comp

but I think it’s a bit too conservative. Carter walks significantly more than Palmer did in the minor leagues, and even assuming he doesn’t improve at all in the majors, Carter would get another 10-20 walks per year over Palmer. Carter clearly has a ton of power, but until he plays in higher levels we won’t know if he’ll have more or less than Palmer, though I think matching Palmer in that category is reasonable. This year, Carter is striking out far too much, as many as in Palmer’s worst seasons, but if he returns to even last year’s levels, he’ll have 10 or 20 less strikeouts less a season. In terms of batting average, though he was playing in higher levels at younger ages, Palmer’s minor league numbers were .242 – significantly less than Carter’s .280. I think Palmer is a useful comp, but I think Carter could add 10 walks, cut down on some strikeouts, and maybe add some hits and homeruns.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 11, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

As a rule

I never get excited over any prospect hitting for power in the Cal League, but at least Carter was hitting in LoA last season. With the exception of increased power, all his numbers look very much like last season’s. I think that is a good sign, but still… I want to see him do it at higher levels.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Aug 11, 2008 9:26 AM EDT 0 recs

True

Even Ranger fans held their excitement about Davis in check until he started mashing - and walking a bit more - in AA Frisco late last season. Still, I think Carter is going to be a good power hitter, though it’s odd to have such a low LD rate.

Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.

by t ball on Aug 11, 2008 10:32 AM EDT up 0 recs

The LD rates from the CA League are f***ed up

Everyone there has a BABIP that’s like 200-300 points above their LD rate. I know the fielders in A-ball are worse, but they’re not THAT bad. It’s a problem with their play-by-play scoring.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 11, 2008 7:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Response

Well, let’s see . . .he’s mostly 2005 Brandon Wood, except that he’s a year older, he has less defensive value, and may hit for an even lower average.

by mrkupe on Aug 11, 2008 11:49 AM EDT 0 recs

and he's huge.

by METSMETSMETS on Aug 11, 2008 10:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Response

Brandon Wood is 6’4”, that’s not exactly short . . .

by mrkupe on Aug 11, 2008 11:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Howard

Carter compares favorably to Ryan Howard but is doing it at a younger age. Hyperbole aside, I want to see 30 Hrs next season to truly believe.

Fake Teams - a proud member of the SB Nation

by faketeams on Aug 11, 2008 12:06 PM EDT 0 recs

Response

Lots of guys compare favorably to Ryan Howard with better statistics at a younger age.

I still really am surprised that Ryan Howard is used as a comparable for any player. He was a long-term one-tool project player who made small but steady improvements through his early-mid twenties in college and the low minors until finally breaking out at age 24. His developmental curve was so peculiar that I find it almost totally useless for predicting the success of any other player.

by mrkupe on Aug 11, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree entirely

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 11, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

this

by daveh33 on Aug 11, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Definition

Howard struck out a ton and didn’t walk a ton. Carter does the same. Both have power as their top skill. Does Carter possess more than one-tool?

Does Carter possess the athleticism to mkae even greater improvements year-to-year? Playing 3B seems to answer that question, no?

Fake Teams - a proud member of the SB Nation

by faketeams on Aug 11, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Response

Thanks for ignoring the point of my post. Sure, Chris Carter looks an awful lot like a RH Ryan Howard statistically at the moment. Of course, as I said . . .

“Lots of guys compare favorably to Ryan Howard with better statistics at a younger age.”

Of course, Ryan Howard then proceeded to get better and better each year despite better competition. And somehow managed to hit 58 HRs in a major league season. Normal projections and developmental curve analysis would’ve suggested that Howard was nothing more than an AAAA slugger. His jump was so obscene and came so late over a period of years that it seems damn right irresponsible to suggest that any other player is capable of the same.

by mrkupe on Aug 11, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Exactly

Are people really trying to compare Carter to Ryan Howard? Lets get a reality check people. Carter is a good power prospect but his k’s are alarming and he is in a very friendly hitters league. Howard has a ROY and MVP trophy on his resume and was only held down in the minors so long due to being blocked by Jim Thome. Sure he will hit for power but I doubt the average will be there.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 11, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

RH David Ortiz

by Bravesin07 on Aug 11, 2008 4:58 PM EDT 0 recs

Why?

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 11, 2008 5:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

6'4 230

similar size as popi and popi’s numbers were similar in the minors.

by Bravesin07 on Aug 11, 2008 7:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

Low LD%

also a good tell—but Ortiz was fortunate enough to have Fenway, where he can just hit high fly balls and they become XBHs.

Only as a Red Sock would Ortiz be successful, so if you think that’s a good comp, you’d expect Carter to be like the Twins version of Ortiz.

by METSMETSMETS on Aug 11, 2008 10:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

What?

Only as a Red Sock[sic] would Ortiz be successful

That’s completely insane. Youre dead wrong and its a pretty outrageous thing to say.

Here’s his HR charts from the past three years:

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2008_1183&type=hitter
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2008_1183&type=hitter
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2008_1183&type=hitter

Youre way off.

He is no doubt helped some by Fenway but he is one of the best hitters in the majors over the last five years in any park on any team. Here are his road splits:

05-07: .283/.395/.615 (1.010) 78 HR
2007: .298/.420/.585 (1.005) 19 HR
2006: .275/.399/.652 (1.052) 32 HR
2005: .278/.369/.605 (0.974) 27 HR
2004: .274/.361/.621 (0.982) 24 HR

Those are MVP/HOF type road numbers.

Really, that was a pretty stupid thing to say. I hope it was meant as a joke.

by alskor on Aug 12, 2008 12:07 AM EDT up 0 recs

It's an interesting argument

Undoubtedly Ortiz would be the very very best future for Carter, but I guess it’s possible.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 11, 2008 11:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Wow

Once again you show your ignorance….

Ortiz was never worse than a .315 hitter in any full minor league season and never had less than 34 doubles on top of similar home run numbers…..he also had lower k rates….

and Ortiz was never Ortiz (and never would have been) until his swing was completely altered in Boston….people forget that he was signed as a left handed bench bat with JEREMY giambi being signed as the starting DH….

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Aug 12, 2008 1:30 AM EDT up 0 recs

I think a good comparison would be

Richie Sexson. Plenty of power, lots of K’s, hits for an alright average but not great, RH, huge body.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Aug 11, 2008 5:28 PM EDT 0 recs

I agree, Sexson would be my #1 comp

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Aug 12, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

re

He might peak as a 2005 and beyond Frank Thomas. I also think the Richie Sexson comp isn’t a terrible one.

by blee1134 on Aug 11, 2008 5:30 PM EDT 0 recs

Eh

He’ll have to cut his strikeouts way down to approach even a post 05 Big Hurt.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Aug 11, 2008 9:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

I wouldn't compare anyone to Thomas post 2005.

Because no one besides Molina is that slow.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Aug 12, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

I believe the comparison was at the plate... not his other tools.

I can’t say it’s a bad comparison, though I prefer the Sexon, Palmer, and possibly Carlos Lee comparisons. Note that Carlos Lee would be his ceiling (both failed 3B’s to go to the OF or DH). I think Carter will be a good hitter in the Show, but it will take him time to get acclimated with MLB pitching (longer than most rookies that is). For some reason, I think he’ll be a guy that gets passed around before he finds a home, maybe like Cust or even Ortiz. For some reason, I can’t fathom him staying with the A’s who are loaded at 1b/DH/OF types.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Aug 13, 2008 5:57 AM EDT up 0 recs