Lars Anderson Update

by John Sickels on Jul 8, 2008 4:56 PM EDT

Time for an update on Red Sox first base prospect Lars Anderson.

Anderson currently ranks seventh in the California League with a .916 OPS, with a complete line of .317/.411/.505, 18 doubles, 11 homers, 45 walks, and 57 strikeouts in 281 at-bats. The league OPS is .744, so his OPS is 23 percent above league context. A left-handed hitter, he's destroying southpaws to the tune of .383/.462/.617. Against right-handers he's at .290/.391/.460, an interesting reverse platoon split but one that likely indicates he won't have to be platoooned at higher levels. I like the high walk rate along with reasonable strikeouts. His home run power may be a bit less than you'd expect from a 6-4, 215 pounder, although he's obviously dangerous and his home run power is expected to continue to increase. He is still just 20 years old.

On the negative side, Anderson has a sharp home/road split, .359/.451/.579 at home in the friendly confines of Lancaster, .272/.365/.426 on the road. On the other hand, the home/road split has lessened of late. He spent some time on the DL with a sore wrist in May, and has been blistering hot since returning to action in June, hitting .369/.450/.533 in 30 games since returning from the wrist injury.

As many of you know, Anderson was the first round pick of my Shadow Draft Twins in 2006. He would be playing in the Florida State League in that alternate universe, where his season line would be something about .298/.388/.473 adjusted for league (though not park) context.

Lars is certainly one of the better first base prospects in the game, though not all questions have been answered yet. How much should we worry about the home/road split? Will that continue to ease as the season progresses? Does the reverse platoon split mean anything? And will he be a 15-20 homer guy, or can he push the homers higher as he moves up? All intriguing questions to which I don't know the answers. Do you?

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Freddie Freeman vs Lars

Who do you take? Freeman has done nothing but mash in his full season debut and could be looking at a promotion soon.

by bravitos5122 on Jul 8, 2008 5:46 PM EDT reply actions

lancaster

is a ridiculous hitters haven. He definitely has nice hitting tools, I just don’t trust his environment much.

by npurcell on Jul 8, 2008 6:13 PM EDT reply actions

Most of the Cal League is a ridiculous hitters haven...

...but then again, so is the Texas League and much of the PCL, right?

So, some of these guys are probably playing in hitter’s leagues the majority of their time in the minors. That can make it tough to project how they’ll fare in their organization’s major league ballpark, sometimes.

Lancaster definitely is a hitter’s park though, even if it has deeper dimensions than most. It gets windy as hell out in that desert, too.

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by Flashfire on Jul 10, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

I thought Lancaster was still the Diamondbacks affiliate...

Am I wrong?

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by dtownmbrown on Jul 19, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

I graduated with Lars. Great guy, really down to earth. I was facebooking him last year about all the prospect praise, and all he could say is he hasn’t really done anything yet. I suspect he will add more power with age, as he has the patience to wait on his pitch and puts tremendous back spin on the ball. As he grows into his body (6’4 but with plenty of room to add muscle) i would not be suprised to see him become a 30 dinger candidate.

by OmahaGiants on Jul 9, 2008 12:25 AM EDT reply actions

Once he hits from the left side at Fenway...

He is going to be an absolute freak at Fenway. He’s going to be David Ortiz lite. Amy Red Sox 1st baseman who hits from the left side is going to be a monster.

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by thefordhamflash on Jul 9, 2008 5:03 AM EDT reply actions

Splits

Typical road/home splits, I think, for someone playing home games at the Lancaster launching pad. I think the high walk rate is the biggest plus, as that is less reflective of ballpark. Though his home power numbers might be slightly inflated, he seems to have the frame to add bulk and grow into 30 HR power. The fact that he’s already such a patient hitter at such a young age really ups his value.

by sggut95 on Jul 9, 2008 10:54 AM EDT reply actions