Heyward is looking like the best prospect in baseball now.

Alderson is certainly the “safe” pick here, because of his pinpoint control and ability to get batters out with his above average stuff.

Most people get caught up in “shiny new toy” syndrome, and that’s exactly what Bumgarner is showing. Now I’m not saying he isn’t unbelievable right now, but I’d like to see some higher level success.

For most organizations who already have a young ace (ala Giants with Lincecum), I’d probably rather take the safer bet to make it as an above average SP over the POTENTIAL stud.

I’d take Alderson. I tend to think lefties who dominate in the low minors are usually overrated because they put up such gaudy stats. I think it has to do with the fact that young hitters see so few very good lefty pitchers that when the rare guy who shows up throwing hard with solid breaking stuff/control, he dominates.

All things equal, I generally would take the righty over the lefty SP.

One thing people aren’t realizing is that Alderson is practically a year older than Bumgarner.

Last time this topic came around (link under the Heyward subthread above), I wanted Bumgarner on upside, despite Alderson’s polish. This time we have more than the tiny sample size we had earlier, so you actually have some things at which to look. Both are about equally young for their levels, and both are doing very well. Bumgarner leads the SAL in both K% and FIP, while Alderson is top-ten in both stats in his more-advanced, hitter’s league.

Alderson does, however, pitch in San Jose half the time, which is a pitcher’s park: his OPS-against is a full 100 points higher on the road. Moreover, he hasn’t been fooling lefty batters much, giving up a 720 OPS. So despite the more-advanced batters he’s getting out, there are questions. Bumgarner, by contrast, is blowing away everyone: ~550 OPS against whether home or on the road, against lefties or righties. If you can only have one of the two, pick Bumgarner.

How quickly do you move them? I wouldn’t push either, though I would listen to the argument that if Bumgarner keeps mopping up in low A that he deserves to see high A sooner than next year. Alderson, to my mind, is in exactly the right place. Even if he does show he can handle the tough road parks in the Cal League and starts getting out lefty batters, I’d want him to do it for at least a half-year.

Burngarner. I think he has a lot of upside. Nice problem to have….

As a Giants fan I feel fortunate to have both.

If I were a fan of another team I think I’d have to go with Bumgarner. Pitching prospects are so uncertain, that to call Alderson a safer bet, I think would be a flawed argument to make. In that context, I’d have to go with who I felt to have the higher upside. Which in that case would be Bumgarner. He is athletic, he’s left handed (they have more value), he throws harder, and if he can improve his breaking pitches, then you have a potential #1 caliber starter. He’s already seemingly exceeded expectations, especially as far as his control is concerned this year. Which I think is a pretty good sign.

As for how quickly I’d move them up, I think Alderson should stay in SJ the entire year, with him opening in AA next year. Bumgarner, I think should also stay in Augusta, and maybe be promoted for the Cal League playoffs. And then he can open the season in SJ in 09, and probably be prompted for a AA promotion near mid-season if all goes well next year for him. That would put Bumgarner on a similar track to Matt Cain, where he could maybe make the majors late in the 2010 season when he’s 20 years old.

I’m not really big on promoting guys quickly unless they’re absolutely dominating and showing they have no more learn or prove at said level. While you could make a case for both to be promoted already this year, its also their first full season of minor league ball, so I think it would be best to leave them alone, and maybe reward them with a promotion at the very end of the year, just to give them a taste of the level they will open at the following year.

Was it Mike Krukow or someone else who says the best pitch in baseball is a fastball that a pitcher can spot where he wants? In any case, both Alderson and Bumgarner appear to be “pitchers” and not just “throwers” even at this early stage in their development. This bodes well for their futures. I don’t know their exact FB velocities but I recall reading Bumgarner tops out at around 97 while Alderson may touch 94 on occasion. It is possible both may be able to add a little velocity. The fact that MadBum is a lefty makes him all the more valuable. I think the further development of his secondary pitches would allow him to make the jump from good to very good or even great. It sounds as if Alderson already has pretty good secondary pitches so he is probably closer to reaching his ceiling already. Based on their upsides, I would lean towards choosing MadBum.

Although I gave Tim Alderson a slight edge entering the season due to the dominance and poise he showed in his five innings in the rookie league last year, I think Madison Bumgarner has clearly gone around him this year.

I worry about both their mechanics, but I think both will become good pitchers if they can remain healthy, with Mad Bum having a shot at being a star or super star. Mad Bum has outpitched Alderson by quite a bit this season, although Timmy Two is doing it a level higher, in High A as opposed to Madison’s Low A.

Still, after a good-but-not-outstanding start, Bumgarner has really “brung” it. He has shown both dominance and control, and he actually has three pitches, albeit with secondary pitches he could have better command of.

But what blows the “race” between Mad Bum and Timmy Two wide open? Mad Bum won’t turn 19 for over three weeks. Everything he has accomplished thus far, and it hasn’t been insignificant, he has accomplished at the age of 18. Mad Bum is not only young, he’s young for his graduating class.

It isn’t inconceivable that if he remains healthy, Mad Bum could reach the majors before he can legally drink. Alderson was considered the high school player who might reach the majors first out of high school. Since Tim is nine months older than Madison, it would almost surprise me if barring health issues, Mad Bum doesn’t make the majors at a lower age than the seemingly more poised Alderson.

My son is precisely seven years older than Mad Bum. Like Mad Bum, he graduated high school at the age of 17. We might not want to forget that when Tim Lincecum was a month and a half older than Mad Bum is right now, he had just graduated high school.

Of course, Tim was also only 5-foot-9 and 135 pounds. :)