Angels acquire Teixeira?
I just saw on the ESPN News ticker that the Angels had acquired Mark Teixeira, but I can't find anything about it at ESPN or the MLB.com website. Has anyone else seen this?
Either I am crazy and saw something wrong (which is possible) or this is very fresh and has yet to have an article written about it. If I am wrong, I apologize and ask for everyone's forgiveness.
If this is true, I think this finally pushes the Angels over the edge and makes them the odds-on favorite to win the WS.
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apparently marek and kotchman for tex
ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't
by variablesdont on
Jul 29, 2008 6:08 PM EDT
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Its true
Teixeira For Kotchman and a Pitching Prospect
by cwhitman412 on
Jul 29, 2008 6:08 PM EDT
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http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3510042
by cwhitman412 on
Jul 29, 2008 6:09 PM EDT
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Long term deal
I am guessing that the Angels are pretty confident that they can sign Tex to a long term deal if they gave up Kotchman.
by nyy601 on
Jul 29, 2008 6:29 PM EDT
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Possibly ... maybe
However, probably not a deciding factor. The Angels have all the makings of a World Champion this season, and just upgraded their one glaring weakness with an All-Star caliber power bat. That is worth sacrificing long-term security. Also, the Angels have plenty of depth at the position. If this move signals anything in the long term, it could be the organization’s faith in Mark Trumbo.
by StickRat on
Jul 29, 2008 6:55 PM EDT
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The key is a major league ready player
Kotchman, for his sins and attributes, is going to be around for a while. The braves knew what they were getting with these deal, I like it for them.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on
Jul 29, 2008 7:00 PM EDT
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Deal
Seems like a good deal for both sides. Tex will help the Angels contend this year, and the Braves get a cost-controlled, defensively-strong 1B for the next few years, plus a good bullpen piece for the future.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on
Jul 29, 2008 6:58 PM EDT
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What about Kendry?
If the Angels do not resign Teixiera, does anyone think that Kendry will get a shot at first? He has been raking again in AAA and surely deserves a shot.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Jul 29, 2008 7:12 PM EDT
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Morales
Career .335/.391/.545 hitter in the minors. I’ve never understood why the Angels don’t at least give him a solid shot at DH.
by DrunkIrish on
Jul 29, 2008 11:35 PM EDT
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Every hitter in the Angels system has career numbers like that
The parks they play in are ridiculous.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 30, 2008 2:09 AM EDT
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Bad deal for LA
Way too much to give up for a marginal upgrade during one playoffs.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 29, 2008 7:13 PM EDT
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Disagree
I couldn’t disagree with you more. First of all it’s not a marginal upgrade. The Angels are 9th in the league when it comes to runs scored. Not to mention their OBP (11th) and SLG (10th) is down near the bottom as well. A guy like Teixeira is exactly what they are looking for. I mean unless you think Maicer Izturis in the 3 hole is a good idea.
As for the price? How is Kotchman and a easily replaced minor league reliever too much? My first thought on hearing this trade was wow, couldn’t the Braves have gotten a little more.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on
Jul 29, 2008 7:54 PM EDT
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It is a marginal upgrade
Teixeira was calculated over at fangraphs as being all of a 9 run upgrade during the regular season, and just going by his advantage in OPS over Kotchman he might be worth 1 run during a playoff series.
Seriously. You traded 4 (3?) more seasons of Casey Kotchman so that you could start game one of your first-round series up 1-0. Wow, is that silly.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 30, 2008 2:08 AM EDT
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Relying on stats too much
Because that is a downright load of garbage. Think before you just accept what some sabermetrics tell you. Anyone who tells me that they think Teixeira will only improve a team by 9 runs over what Kotchman has done is smoking some seriously strong grass. For all that these more advanced stats have brought, this is one of their many drawbacks. People don’t think anymore and just throw out these absurd calculations and try and wave them in your face as proof of anything.
by was385 on
Jul 30, 2008 4:38 AM EDT
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So, your argument is "stats are absurd"
with absolutely no evidence to back it.
Of any kind.
No, believe it or not that doesn’t actually tend to convince people that you’re right.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 30, 2008 2:20 PM EDT
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OK
He’s got a significantly higher OBP and SLG so far this year. If you’re saying that a player with a .100+ OPS advantage is only worth nine more runs over the entire course of a season than, then you really need to learn how to question things you read. Too many people now just accept these stats without even stopping to think. If you did that you’d see how ridiculous this is. A player who is going to hit for about the same average, have a much better OBP, hit about the same amount of doubles, and hit about twice as many homers is really only worth 9 more runs over an entire season? Really? Think about these things before just accepting what you read as the absolute truth.
by was385 on
Jul 30, 2008 6:31 PM EDT
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I did think about them
In fact, I did the math myself.
And it’s correct.
Why don’t YOU try doing the math, instead of assuming that I can’t possibly be right and then refusing to do any further work?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 31, 2008 1:28 AM EDT
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I'm not talking about doing the math
I’m saying that accepting any stat that you see as the absolute truth, that is what is ridiculous. To tell me that a guy with well over a 100 OPS advantage that gets on base much more and hits for far better power is worth only nine more runs over the course of the season is absolute garbage. When I say think, I mean actually think for yourself. I’m not talking about checking to see if someone else’s math done with some ludicrous stat is right or plugging in numbers, I’m saying actually step back and ask yourself, over a 162-game season, is that big of a difference in performance only worth 9 runs? If so then guys like Pujols and A-Rod are seriously f’ing overrated! But they’re not, because some of these stats, like what is telling you that Kotchman and Teixeira are not that far apart, are a load of crap.
by was385 on
Jul 31, 2008 3:42 AM EDT
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Here
let’s just assume for a second that those two had the exact same AVG, OBP, and doubles. Assuming all those things, Teixeira is still going to have over nine more homers than Kotchman in the course of a full season. That right there is nine runs without even taking into account the fact that Teixeira is getting on base at a far higher rate. So, what exactly am I missing here? What stat did you read that actually takes away from Teixeira’s value?
by was385 on
Jul 31, 2008 3:46 AM EDT
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9 runs over 2 months is 27 runs over a full season
Which you would realize if you thought about this for even a third of a second (or read the rest of the thread, for that matter) before spewing some rant about statistics which doesn’t even apply here.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 31, 2008 1:52 PM EDT
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These are your exact words
“Teixeira was calculated over at fangraphs as being all of a 9 run upgrade during the regular season”
You said 9 runs during the regular season. Not 9 runs over the rest of the regular season. If that is what you meant, then so be it but don’t tell me I’m not thinking when you mis-typed and said something different than what you are now telling me.
by was385 on
Jul 31, 2008 6:27 PM EDT
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Instead of trying to pick through my words,
you could have either a. done the math yourself, or b. read the fangraphs article, or for that matter c. read the BTBS article linked below, any of which would have instantly clarified the situation.
Instead, you chose to hurl an anti-stats screed at me because something I wrote was slightly unclear. Unpleasant, but at least I now know that I can safely ignore your posts as statistically inept.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 31, 2008 10:18 PM EDT
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I'm Still Not Getting It
I have to agree with Was385’s post. You don’t actually think that Teixeira is worth only 1 run total during a series do you? Could you? Something is silly alright.
If we were talking about the rumored trade of Kevin Youkilis and Craig Hansen for Teixeira I’d probably be agreeing with you. I’d say there was not much difference really. But we are talking about Casey Kotchman here.
Every stat I look at tells me a different story. Like Kotchman’s line at home .291 .328 .401 .729 with 2 home runs this year? Teixeira is a definite upgrade there come playoff time. Not just position wise but where he’s going to be hitting in the lineup. That’s the point of this trade.
Just take a look at Runs created, Teixeira is 4th in the league for 1B and Kotchman is 19th and when you look at RC27 the difference is slightly more than 2 runs. Sorry, but that is not marginal.
As for defense? Kotchman is a plus defender, but so is Teixeira so that’s a wash.
When you consider how much trouble the Angels have had scoring runs in general and in the post season in particular this trade makes perfect sense to me. I’m having a hard time figuring out why you think it’s such a bad move. Unless you are thinking that there is a decent chance the Angels resign Teixeira and he’s going to be killing your A’s for the next 5 years.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on
Jul 30, 2008 12:09 PM EDT
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RC27 has 2 runs per 27 outs
OK.
How many outs do you think a player makes in a 5-game postseason series? Say… half that many?
Which would result in a difference of half that many runs? Say… 1?
This stuff isn’t rocket science, people.
As for them re-signing him, I’d be more than OK with that. Boras will extract a huge ransom and they won’t get any draft picks. The Angels are going to be signing some big free agents in years to come—if it happens to be Teixeira, I can live with that.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 30, 2008 2:24 PM EDT
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Subject
The RC27 stat isn’t intended to work that way. That also wasn’t the point I was trying to make. I was simply trying to point out to you how large the disparity between the two players is.
I guess a much simpler way would have been to link to their respective OPS+ 139 for Teixeira and 105 for Kotchman. Of course that probably wouldn’t have convinced you either.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on
Jul 30, 2008 7:54 PM EDT
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The f**k?
Of course the RC27 is intended to work that way. That’s what it means. Runs Created per 27 Outs.
Or you could read this, in which Dave Cameron calculates that Teixeira is worth .2 runs per game, or… surprise surprise… 1 run in a 5-game series.
1 run every 5 games is a 32-run upgrade for a full season, which quite honestly is a. a lot, b. more than I expected and c. I think a little generous to Teixeira, if anything.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 31, 2008 1:33 AM EDT
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Your argument is counterintuitive
which may not be wrong, but it is at least slightly difficult to understand.
Here’s why: you note that Teixeira is significantly better than Kotchman, yet in any single playoff series may not have that much of an impact. The problem with this argument is that if you were trying strictly to get better for a single 5 game series, well, then theoretically anybody could have a better 5 days than anybody else. I don’t think dividing Teixeira’s 32 run upgrade into 1 run per 5 games is useful, because it implies that he adds 1 run every single 5 games which isn’t true. Certainly there are 5 day periods in which he is equally or less valuable than Kotchman and 5 day periods where he is much much more valuable than Kotchman and brings in 5 or 6 or 10 more runs than he does. For the Angels to predict whether during these particular playoff serieses Teixeira will be unusually productive or not is impossible; they did the only reasonable thing which was get a guy who you yourself admit is significantly better than Kotchman, and are hoping for the best. It could not work, but it seems like a decent bet, especially when they’re giving up a guy who’s only a marginally above average hitter and a 1B
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on
Jul 31, 2008 12:17 PM EDT
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This doesn't matter
Assuming both players’ performance is basically normally distributed (usually average, sometimes very good, sometimes very bad), and I certainly haven’t seen anything to convince me that such is not the case, the average production is all that matters. Teixeira is only slightly more likely to have a good series than Kotchman, and the average amount by which he is better is one run.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 31, 2008 1:55 PM EDT
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Hmmm?
Whose performance is normally distributed? We’re dealing with people, not computers. Also, we happen to know that Teixeira specifically is not that way, because his production almost always dramatically improves in the second half of the year. I’m not denying your point about the average amount – it’s a valid one – but I’m not entirely convinced of what precisely that means
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on
Jul 31, 2008 3:10 PM EDT
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Basically, he might be a little more valuable in the playoffs if he was an extreme streak hitter
I.E. someone who hits .500 every other week and .167 the rest of the time. You might be able to finagle his playing time in such a way that he could carry you while he was hot and minimize the damage while he was cold, and he might give you a Stephen Curry-esque shot at an upset in a series where you would otherwise be the underdog.
Thing is, I don’t think there actually are any hitters like that. Most of the time, Mark Teixeira hits like “Mark Teixeira”, i.e. around .320/.400/.480.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 31, 2008 9:46 PM EDT
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I Still Disagree
Boy oh boy do I disagree with you. For so many different reasons I can’t even begin to figure out how to express them all. But I guess I’ll try anyway.
Lets start with the projections that arrive at the number .2 runs? I’m not really sure how to attack that one. I guess I could point out that so far the Angels have scored 489 runs through 107 games, for an average of 4.571 runs per game. Which by the way currently makes their Pythagorean W-L: 59-48.
Now that number seems like it’s much lower than all the projections that people are using to support their conclusions that Teixera isn’t worth the upgrade. That’s actually what one of the worst lineup projection comes out to be if you use the tool the guy links to.
So what should we do? Go with the actual real world number or go with the projection that suits our argument? The one that says they should be scoring 4.7 or 4.8 runs a game?
Since I want to play both sides I will go with the real world number of 4.571 and then I’ll use the projection with Teixera in the lineup that projects the Angels score 5.107 runs per game and TA DA!!!! I arrive at a gain of 0.536 runs. So Teixera is worth at least 2.5 runs in a short series. Wow that was easy. Hey projections are fun aren’t they?
As for the link you provided it reads quite similar to the article I read on BeyondTheBoxScore. In the sense they both come to almost the same conclusion. The trade was a mistake, not large enough upgrade, 3 years of Kotchman is actually worth something.
But one of the comments on there points out something that not many people are considering, and that is while the Angels have pretty much a playoff spot clinched they are still playing for best record and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. That is a very important consideration.
So please add that to your calculations and see what you come up with. Of course home field means nothing in a short series, right? (I disagree with that too, but that’s a different argument) Sample size and all? Well in a short series what would you rather have? 25 at-bats of Teixera or 25 at-bats of Kotchman? Considering this is the playoffs? Win or go home? I think that answer is obvious to anyone.
Lastly, the definition of RC27: A stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9 of the same individual would score in a game.
So no it’s not intended to work the way you are using it. Because it’s a projection based on the same player. An entire lineup. Of the same guy. You can’t just halve it twice and say hey look it supports what I already said so it must be true. It’s 100% projection.
If I had more time I would also point out that Kotchman seems to be regressing from where he was last year.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on
Jul 31, 2008 12:39 PM EDT
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You fail statistics
I’m sorry. You will be repeating the class next semester.
Did it actually never occur to you that the reason the Angels have scored less runs than they are projected to score going forward might have something to do with either a. players underplaying their projections, or b. injuries?
I’ve now looked at this trade from about 4 different angles. Every time I come up with the same upgrade—1 run. It’s a 1 run upgrade, dude. Home field? In the extremely unlikely event that the 1 regular season win Teixeira adds gives them home field in a series, that’s worth another half a run. This stuff is trivial. Surely not worth 3 more years of Kotchman to obtain.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 31, 2008 2:02 PM EDT
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Playoffs
Paul, I think the issue here is that the run discrepancy between Kotchman and Teixeira is intuitively wrong. To argue that there’s “only” a 1 win (ok, a little less) difference over the remainder of the season sounds a bit… well, it sounds a bit off. You cannot view this only through the lens of a player’s production, based on his “average” performance, in a vacuum. Moreover, I think we have all seen what a “game changing” bat can do down the stretch, particularly in a contract year. While I think it’s safe to guess you’re not a very big believer in lineup protection based on your previous posts (and I don’t mean this in anything other than a factual way), I think you’re playing down the difference here. Teixeira will create more runs not just based on his own production, but by altering the production of Vlad Guerrero in a positive fashion by getting him more pitches to hit.
I think it also merits mention that a home run or two in a playoff series will make much more than a 1 run difference. I know this sounds like rubbish, but what if those are “clutch” homers? They’ll effect bullpen usage. I’ve no problem with sabermetrics at all, but I do think that they are far from perfect and should be viewed as such.
by GuyinNY on
Jul 31, 2008 4:59 PM EDT
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I know it's "intuitively wrong"
That’s because most people don’t “intuit” that the difference between the best and worst teams in baseball is usually only about 30 games a season in true-talent terms. From that point of view, a 3 win player upgrade over a full season is a substantial upgrade.
There is just not that much you can do to help a team at this point in the season, and especially not in the crapshoot MLB playoffs. It’s much better to just build a good roster to begin with and let the chips fall where they may than to count on some magical midseason upgrade.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 31, 2008 9:52 PM EDT
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Exactly
It’s a substantial upgrade that many not have an impact over the course of a particular playoff series, but certainly makes them a stronger team
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on
Jul 31, 2008 10:18 PM EDT
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In relative terms, it is substantial
In absolute terms, it’s insignificant.
Unless you’re acquiring a durable true-ace starter, it is almost impossible to make an acquisition that is significant in absolute terms at the trade deadline.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 31, 2008 10:21 PM EDT
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Round And Round
Whatever. Seriously, that’s all I have to say. Underplaying their projections? Gee, who would have thunk something like that was possible? You mean the players don’t perform to exact spreadsheet specifications? Do you even get what you are saying? Forget all that though.
Just answer one question for me. Please tell me exactly what 3 years of an arbitration eligible Casey Kotchman is worth?
You know the guy that’s OPSing .774 this year and .759 for his career. Maybe I’m overvaluing the contribution that Teixera will make, but you are definitely overvaluing Kotchman as well.
The Angels traded for the biggest bat on the market and all they gave up was an average at best 1B and a minor league reliever. That sounds like a good deal to me before you even consider they might end up with two picks if he walks.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on
Jul 31, 2008 7:03 PM EDT
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I know this is a trick question, but I'll ignore the inevitable ignorant response
because I’m actually somewhat curious about this.
Almost every projection system had him at around an .800 OPS, maybe a little below, entering this season. He’s underplayed that a touch but he’s also entering his prime years, so we’ll call that a reasonable estimation. That’s about league average hitting from a first baseman. Couple that with his plus glove, and he’s probably about 1 win above average or 3 wins above replacement per year. Over 3 years that’s 9 wins above replacement. Throw in one more WAR for this year.
Teixeira is about 1 win above average for the rest of the year, which is about 1.67 wins above replacement.
Stephen Marek is an unknown, but lets say he provides a couple of WAR in his career as a middle reliever. Let’s call it 1.67 because that’s not overly generous and makes the math really easy.
Teixeira will almost certainly generate two draft picks, but Marek and Kotchman could generate up to four. Let’s say the difference between the two is one second-round pick. They don’t do that much in MLB on average—let’s say 3 WAR total.
The salary difference between the two this season is about $4 million. Over the next 3 years, let’s say Kotchman averages $5 million a season in arbitration awards. That’s a salary difference of $11 million.
That means the Angels gave up 8 wins above replacement to save $11 million and get a tiny benefit in one playoffs. That is a really, really bad deal. On the free agent market, replacing those would cost at least double that much—and the free agent market is where they’ll be turning soon, because they lack in-house solutions at the corner positions. Morales can only play one of them and he’s not, IMO, that good. I think ultimately this deal will cause the Angels to lose $13-15 million in franchise value.
Please note that a lot of the assumptions I’ve used are pretty favorable to the Angels. I actually think Marek is more valuable than a second-round pick, not less so.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 31, 2008 10:09 PM EDT
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Slight math error
That should be 7 WAR lost, not 8. That makes the franchise loss more like $10-12 million.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 31, 2008 10:11 PM EDT
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Subject
Thanks for answering my question. Prefaced with an insult. I know everything I need to know about you now.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on
Jul 31, 2008 11:30 PM EDT
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Well
Kotchman’s been around a while, yet he has not done much. He’s hit to a tune of .287/.327/.448, and that’s also about his career average. Tex is a much much much better hitter, and just as good of a fielder. Marek is worthless, IMO. Braves go totally fleeced.
Yes, I believe in sabermetrics, but honestly over an entire regular season, Tex’s home runs alone gives him at least a 9 run advantage. And his OBP? That also works Tex’s way.
by METSMETSMETS on
Jul 30, 2008 8:24 PM EDT
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glad Teixera is gone
The guy never could hit in the clutch. I said last year that I hated the trade of him to Atlanta. Now he had an interview after the trade and pretty much blew off the Braves and wants to get the huge 20 million a year contract. I hope Tex has fun getting booed in NY next year with his unclutch AB’s and slow first halfs.
by Bravesin07 on
Jul 29, 2008 7:18 PM EDT
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Untrue
In his career he is a .297 hitter with runners on, .322 hitter with RISP, .292 hitter with RISP and 2 out, and .347 with the bases loaded. What do all these stats have in common? They are all HIGHER then his .286 career average.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Jul 29, 2008 7:31 PM EDT
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Huh?
“I hope Tex has fun getting booed in NY next year with his unclutch AB’s and slow first halfs.”
Isn’t that kind of a contraction? If he only has “unclutch ABs” then shouldn’t he be stronger in the first half rather than in the second?
Over the last 3 years (I couldn’t find career stats for this), he’s had a .982 OPS for the period after the All Star Break, rather than a .887 before. In July, he has a .839 OPS. In August, a 1.017. In September/October? 1162. That’s kind of strange for somebody as “unclutch” as you say
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on
Jul 29, 2008 7:52 PM EDT
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clutch
as a Braves fan, I can honestly say Tex dosent seem to come through with many “big ” hits..obviously not telling you guys any scientific…we all know he is a second half player
we DONT know how clutch he will be in the playoffs..because he hasnt played in the playoffs.
by jsmall404 on
Jul 29, 2008 11:13 PM EDT
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I'll help you out...
..though I’d hardly call it “scientific…lol
With the game “Close and Late” this season Tex has done this….
53 AB’s – 19 Hits – 12 BB’s – 4 Hrs – 14 RBI
That’s .358/.485/ .679
He’s walked a lot more than in the past beause there aren’t any other really good hitters in Atlanta’s lineup besides mccann right?
Anyways, don’t debate Bravesin07 on this one. It isn’t based on any logic or truth. It’s what is known as …bitterness. i can understand that but fabricating shit about a player isn’t among my favorite behaviors.
Braves…you are full of it on this one.
by casejud on
Jul 31, 2008 2:03 AM EDT
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Response
Yeah, he really made sure to get a lot of shots in at the Braves in between his stream of praise for the organization, its players, its management, and the fanbase.
I don’t have much doubt that Mark Teixeira is a total mercenary, but he handled this situation with a lot of class IMO.
by mrkupe on
Jul 29, 2008 8:13 PM EDT
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Why?
Why is he a mercenary?? I’ve can’t figure out why Tex is supposed to be so fiercely loyal to Atlanta…why? Because he got traded there? Show him the money and he stays…don’t and he doesn’t. I doubt they even negotiated with him. The Braves made a decision that they couldn’t sign him and moved on.
by casejud on
Jul 31, 2008 2:06 AM EDT
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Response
I didn’t say he was supposed to be loyal to Atlanta . . .rather, I don’t think the guy has any loyalty whatsoever to anybody other than the team that’s going to be paying him his money, and preferably as much money as possible.
It’s been said on numerous occasions that the Braves made a very substantial offer to Teixeira, which was declined. I’m sure Teixeira would have been willing to sign with the Braves and skip free agency – on the condition that they sign him to a contract on his terms rather than theirs. They were going to have to pay him a significant premium to stay off the market, and considering the Braves probably started in the area of $16-17M per year . . .well, that’s a massive amount of money.
He worked with his agent to avoid being drafted by Tampa Bay, even throwing out the word that he would flat out not sign with the team. He was so blatant about his complete and utter lack of interest in staying with the Rangers (the team that DID give him his money in the first place) that they moved him a year and a half before free agency. He has completely rebuffed any attempt by his teams to sign him to a contract that would avoid free agency, save a couple of situations in which he allowed that he would be willing to accept an absolutely obscene sum of money – and no less.
He’s a hell of a player, but it’s pretty obvious that he is all business, all the time.
by mrkupe on
Jul 31, 2008 2:46 AM EDT
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Fair enough
You’ve made your case. He’s followed the A-Rod/ Boras school of baseball business. At least he is a consistent producer like A-Rod as well. Pretty astute move to not want to play in TB at that point as well…who would have? They were a mess at that point and with no hope in sight really. Boras is really great at his job…. making players aware of every inch of the power they have.
by casejud on
Jul 31, 2008 1:13 PM EDT
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Final Tally for the Braves
Braves receive Kotchman and Stephen Marek for Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, J-Salt and Matt Harrison. Great move Frank Wren!
Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.blogspot.com
by Baseball Handyman on
Jul 29, 2008 7:53 PM EDT
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Response
In fairness, they also got 1.5 years worth of great performance from Teixeira. While it didn’t end up producing the results in the win-loss column that the Braves had hoped for, Teixeira himself did exactly what the Braves could have expected and perhaps then some.
Also, I think it bears saying that none of those players that the Braves traded have done anything useful at the major league level thus far. I have never been a believer in Harrison and Salty is fading fast for me. The real meat of the Teixeira trade rests in a 19 year old shortstop whose current .700 OPS campaign would stand as his most productive season thus far in his pro career and a 19 year old pitcher – and we all know how things go when it comes to young pitchers.
Don’t get me wrong, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus are damn good prospects. But it’s entirely possible and, dare I say, very likely that the 1.5 years of Teixeira + what the Braves will get out of Kotchman are going to be significantly more productive than the Rangers’ haul. Feel free to argue on the basis that the Braves could have found a better use for their resources, but I can’t buy the argument that these trades were inherently “bad” for the team.
by mrkupe on
Jul 29, 2008 8:02 PM EDT
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1 year out of Teix actually…deadline 2007 to deadling 2008 and no playoff appearance. This deal was all about the Braves making the playoffs. Since that didn’t happen the whole thing was an endeavor which will end up as a net loss that could set back their organization years.
Feliz is quickly becoming an elite talent.
Andrus projects as a Renteria-type although I’m not sold on him yet.
Harrison has already seen time with Texas and profiles as a number 3.
J-Salt profiles as a 25 HR C or 1b. Obviously not ending up a C would hurt his value.
The only way that deal works is if the Braves had paid up and signed Teix long term. Anything less is a HUGE loss and that’s exactly what happened. Kotchman, Marek + 1 year of Teix is not nearly enough to warrant those four guys.
Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.blogspot.com
by Baseball Handyman on
Jul 29, 2008 9:05 PM EDT
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ex-Braves
I think you are viewing the ex-Braves through very rosy glasses. Here’s my take:
Feliz is quickly becoming an elite talent. (hard to argue)
Andrus projects as an Omar Vizquel type, which means very little offense pre-arbitration.
Harrison has already seen time with Texas and profiles as a number 4/5.
J-Salt has really taken a downturn since once profiling as a 25-HR catcher, now raising questions as to whether he’ll provide a + bat, or be able to stay at the position.
by BobbyMac on
Jul 29, 2008 9:40 PM EDT
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Response
“Feliz is quickly becoming an elite talent.”
I will agree. But he’s also 19. And remember . . .he was traded for an All Star caliber player.
“Andrus projects as a Renteria-type although I’m not sold on him yet.”
Andrus has a .700 OPS. That would make for a personal best over the course of a full season. So . . .yeah. This would make him a utility guy at best in the majors . . .but he’s not doing this in the majors, he’s doing this two levels away from the majors. So I think more than a little restraint is needed here. And you said as much yourself . . .so what’s the problem?
“Harrison has already seen time with Texas and profiles as a number 3.”
I think you mean “profiles as a number 3 if the majors expand to 60 teams”
“J-Salt profiles as a 25 HR C or 1b. Obviously not ending up a C would hurt his value.”
Every time I’ve seen him catch he looks like a disaster. I’ll still buy that the bat can play (and really, at his age, why shouldn’t I?), but personally I think he’s no more than a league average bat at 1B with a below-average glove.
by mrkupe on
Jul 29, 2008 10:09 PM EDT
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As far as Andrus is concerned
his OPS has increased every month this year in AA except July. The .700 is fairly misleading with a .612 April, 666 May, .782 June a .770 July (which he homered and singled today so i dont know if it is updated).
Heres my view on the deal, every player Atlanta dealt for Tex has now played in AA, with Jones becoming a rather pleasant suprise as a Lefty Reliver.
So thats 5 guys traded for 1 year of Tex and 2 months of Mahay and the draft picks he got Atlanta and now Marek and Kotchman.
Sorry, thier is no way Atlanta can say they won this deal. That being said I understand the reasoning with Atlanta’s window closing but they never recieved equal value or even close to equal value for what they gave up.
If I was in Atlantas postion last year would I do the same deal? I dont know, but the thought process is sound to make the playoff push, and Texas sis have the leverage with other options avaliable.
by laxtonto on
Jul 30, 2008 12:43 AM EDT
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LOL @ the Matt Harrison comment
I’ll even guarentee that Matt Harrison will be Oranizational filler pitching in that launching pad that is Arlington. That place is going to crush the dreams of many young Texas pitchers who will inevitably get discarded much like the long list that they have already built up.
by AthleticsReign on
Jul 30, 2008 2:49 AM EDT
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andrus
if andrus plays very good defense at short and steals some bases, isn’t he a pretty comparable player to kotchman? kotchman doesn’t hit for power, he doesn’t hit .300, and he’s not even drawing walks this year. basically you have a guy that doesn’t hit enough for his position and plays very good defense. andrus probably won’t hit for a big average when he first comes up, but his steals add some value.
by fewgoodcards on
Jul 29, 2008 11:08 PM EDT
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I could see Andrus ending up
Like the Juan Pierre of short stops which might not be a bad thing. Its impressive hes in AA at 19 abiet in a very hitter friendly league puting up very unimpressive #’s. Then again hes still 19 and theres tons of room for improvement. As long as hes not sidetracked by injuries or anything I could see him as a productive MLBer.
by AthleticsReign on
Jul 30, 2008 2:46 AM EDT
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sometimes you take a chance
they had one of the best teams on paper both years.
plus, there is no guarantee that those guys will still pan out to anything.
lastly, its not fair to say “great job Wren” when he didnt make the original deal…
the deal he just made getting a decent 1B under control for a 2 month player is as good as you can hope for
by jsmall404 on
Jul 29, 2008 11:15 PM EDT
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I did forget Jones and DeVall as compensation for Mahay
At this point….
Jones > Marek since he’s 3 years younger and at the same level
Kotch > Salty, but Salty could wind up more valuable as a C or of = value as a 1b playing everyday
Harrison > DeVall since Harrison is already in AAA and having success while DeVall was just drafted.
This leaves;
Ron Mahay (2.25 in 28 IP as a Brave)
Mark Teixeira (37 HR 134 RBI as a Brave)
for
Neftali Feliz (BA #12 mid season prospect)
Elvis Andrus (BA # 19 prospect entering the season)
BIG > for Feliz/Andrus there with both being in their teens and being under the Rangers control for a combined 10-12 major league seasons.
The Braves only win one of the comps by a pretty small margin. Even though Wren didn’t make the trade, the value he received in return is questionable and the Braves not really trying to sign Teix long term is bush league.
I stand by my previous statement that the net loss from the Braves/Teix dealings will set this franchise back YEARS!
Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.blogspot.com
by Baseball Handyman on
Jul 30, 2008 11:26 AM EDT
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Disagree on a few points here
I realize you prefaced your statement with a “At This Point”, however I don’t think you can state things in such a cut and dry manner like you presented.
I could easily see the DeVall/Harrison faceoff favor DeVall in the relative near future. Most see Harrison as a 4th/5th/swingman type. DeVall is a completely unknown quantity at this point in time, but many have tabbed him as a guy that could be a quick riser. 12 months from now if Harrison is sporting a 5+ ERA at the back of the Rangers rotation and DeVall is tearing his way through the Sally League, wouldn’t many people choose DeVall a that point in time? Rather than consider this a “win” for Harrison, I’d consider this an incomplete.
If I have an established catcher like McCann for the forseeable future, I’d prefer Kotchman to Salty. I know there were many reports last year near the deadline of scouts saying that Salty is very overrated both as a catcher and hitter (seem to recall this in either a Gammons or Stark article). Kotchman is a solid hitter, exceptional defender, and the timing on Kotchman going into free agency should time itself so that that Freddie Freeman will just be about ready to take over at 1b (assuming he continues to develop).
For your Mahay/Teix for Feliz/Andrus breakdown, well hindsight is always 20/20. If the trade was done with just those 4 players involved, I’d consider that a textbook trade deadline move that helps both teams achieve their goals. Yes, since the Braves didn’t make the playoffs it’s easy to ridicule this, but at the time they acquired him they were 3.5 back in the NL East, and had been starting Scott Thorman’s 68 OPS+ with the corpse of Julio Franco chipping in with his own 68 OPS+ versus lefties. I’d argue that they NEEDED to make a trade like this to make a run. Hoarding years and years worth cost controlled output is what teams rebuilding should do. Talented teams that are 3.5 games out of the division on the last day of July should go for the playoffs.
Also, the Braves do not have a barren system. The loss of talent is noticable, sure, but this isn’t the same thing as if say, the Jays traded away 4 of their top prospects. There is a ton of talent in the pipeline.
And honestly, you can’t admonish the Braves for not resigning Teixera right now. He’s a Boras client who is clearly going to go for the highest offer in FA this offseason. I’m sure even if the Braves would’ve offered a nice 4 or 5 year extension it wouldn’t have even been considered.
by jibs on
Jul 30, 2008 9:23 PM EDT
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You forgot Beau Jones
just figured I’d point it out. He has a shot to be better than Marek.
Not really fair to compare the hauls because of the time left on the contract. Atlanta gambled Tex would get them to the playoffs and lost. But they got a good deal by getting Kotch and Marek as opposed to 2 draft picks.
"Here comes the version of Benoit that lets the other team put it out of reach. I hate that version."
-Athos
by SaltyDawg on
Jul 30, 2008 12:32 AM EDT
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just would like to point out that its not really Wren’s fault that they paid THAT much for Tex last season. He wasn’t the GM then. His only options this year were to
1. Try to resign tex for a butt load of money
2. Trade him in a trade market where there wasn’t as much need for a 1B
3. Or wait it out and get a couple late first round draft picks.
Casey Kotchman will most likely be a useful major league player for the next 3-4 years.
by yondaime4 on
Jul 30, 2008 12:23 PM EDT
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Two things
First off, the initial deal was Schurholtz, not Wren.
Second, sure, the move looks bad now. But it looks a helluva lot better if Smoltz, Glavine, Hudson, the whole outfield and every decent pitcher in the bullpen don’t get hurt this year. Heck, all that happened and the Braves still looked like they had a shot at the playoffs until a couple weeks ago. It was a gamble to get the Braves into the playoffs either this year or last, and it wasn’t Tex that kept that from happening.
Do you make the deal knowing that Smoltz will hardly pitch at all in 2008? Or that your three top relievers will spend significant time on the DL? Probably not. But that doesn’t make it a bad move. When it went down, I said it would be good if the Braves make the playoffs at least once out of 07 and 08. If they didn’t, it’s bad. They haven’t, so it’s turned out as a net negative. But them’s the breaks.
Also, I’ll go ahead and say that when the deal was made, I was shocked at how much the Braves had given up. But at this point, it really doesn’t look like much outside of Feliz (who is looking like he’s going to be plenty by himself, don’t get me wrong). But Salty? He hasn’t hit at all in the majors. Harrison really isn’t very good (4.56 FIP in AAA this year? Are you kidding me?), and Andrus continues to not hit despite the change from “bad hitting environment” to “great hitting environment”. Beau Jones might be okay, but I think I may like Marek more. There’s still a lot of variability left from Salty, Feliz, and Andrus, but in the end, I wouldn’t be shocked if Feliz was the only impact guy the Braves gave up in this deal.
And for whatever it’s worth, I think Wren got the best return he could at this point on Teixeira. Kotchman fills an organizational need for the next few years, and Marek… well, whatever, you always need cheap bullpen guys.
by mraver on
Jul 30, 2008 11:49 PM EDT
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on the recent trade
i will agree 100%.... my initial reaction was two fold….”is this all that could be received for tex?!”, but when you look at the market out there for a 1b, and what they got…..it’s not a bad deal….i have an acquaintance who plays with the angels, and a couple of years back, i asked him who he thought would be the better of kotchman and morales….and he said it was kotchman, and not even close….he said kotchman had a much higher ceiling….if the braves get above average power production from second and catcher like they should, kotchman hitting 20ish homers atfirst will be just fine….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on
Jul 31, 2008 12:18 AM EDT
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What they need is a bat or three for the OF
Aside from injuries, OF production has been the Braves’ biggest issue this year. Kotch won’t be a problem at 1B, but if the Braves want to contend, they’re going to need something better than Greg Norton in LF and a significantly better performance from Jeff “I’m having the worst season of any full-time player in the majors” Francoeur.
by mraver on
Jul 31, 2008 12:40 AM EDT
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Tex
I said at the time of the trade that it didn’t make sense. The Braves offense was solid last year when he was acquired, albeit nothing amazing. What those prospects should have been spent on in trade was someone like Johan Santana or C.C. Sabathia to pair with Tim Hudson for the future as it was obvious that Smoltz was beginning to wear down. Tex performed at an elite level in a Braves uniform with a full season on the team and something like 130 RBI in that time, but his performance was a luxury over what could have been given by a combo of Salty and McCann switching behind the plate and at 1b. The bullpen has also been in desperate need of arms, and while Mahay was nice in that trade, losing him immediately while giving away possible arms to replace him was not wise.
Now, the team will have tremendous financial flexibility to pursue big names this offseason, like Ben Sheets or CC, but they’re out all those prospects in order to have that flexibility. It is simply poor team management. Braves fans were seeing the Royal blue shining on Schuerholz near the end of his tenure, and this trade absolutely cemented it for him.
by biggentleben on
Jul 30, 2008 3:15 PM EDT
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Salty
You mean the same Salty whose MLB slash line the last two years is an underwhelming .259/.323/.400?
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on
Jul 30, 2008 7:39 PM EDT
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salty
no, i mean the same salty that was hitting .284/.333/.411 with the braves at the time and had gotten some solid reviews from braves starters for his calling of a game….what has happened since he went to texas i truly cannot explain….
by biggentleben on
Jul 30, 2008 9:39 PM EDT
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Uh...
...those lines aren’t that different.
i think the Braves may have just made the judgement that Salty was an overvalued player. To me, out of all these moves being discussed the result of the whole thing hinges on Nrftali Feliz performance.
Salty may still be a star but its looking like less and less
Kotchman is 25 years old, which isnt getting mentioned much. He isnt having his best season but A) He’s 25 B) His minor league stats show hes capable of more C) So do his previous major league stats.
I think THIS trade is a god decision by the Braves. Its 90 percent of first-baseman for less than half the price.
by casejud on
Jul 31, 2008 2:17 AM EDT
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long run
i’m not debating in the long run that the braves may have even won the tex deal, but what it did to the organization is trade away 3 of the team’s best trade options for last year and this year for a guy that was not going to be with the team long term….
i’ve said in this thread that i like kotchman a lot and i’m glad to see him on the braves, but short term there are some big holes that a guy like salty or andrus or harrison could lead a deal for now or in the offseason to fill those holes….instead they were all packaged in a deal for a guy at a position that wasn’t really a need at the time, even….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on
Jul 31, 2008 12:47 PM EDT
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Depends
On whether or not you think the Braves dealt those prospects at their peak value or not. Since the organization has a history of doing exactly that (Marte, Meyer, Renteria, etc.), I give them the benefit of the doubt.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on
Jul 31, 2008 12:52 PM EDT
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Wasn't a need?
Are you kidding?
They had frigging Scott Thorman playing first base. He was easily the worst first baseman in all of baseball last year. I can’t figure out how there could possibly be more of a “need.”
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 31, 2008 2:04 PM EDT
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um...no
scott thorman had been relegated to spot starting at the time of the trade with salty taking most of the time at first during BP and starting a few games…..from july 1 until the acquisition of teixeira, thorman made 10 starts, only 2 after July 13th….salty and franco were starting at that point….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on
Jul 31, 2008 5:48 PM EDT
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Salty and Franco?
Boy, there’s a heck of an improvement…
Point still holds.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jul 31, 2008 10:12 PM EDT
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exactly
first wasn’t as much a need as starting pitching….point still holds….glad you see it that way….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on
Aug 1, 2008 9:46 AM EDT
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Salty
Personally, I think the jury is still very much out on Salty. I would not at all be shocked if he turns into a productive MLB hitter, although if he has to move off C, he loses a lot of value.
But to suggest (as Ben did) that starting him at C/1B last year and this one was a better alternative than trading for Tex seems very wrong. He clearly was not ready to contribute at the major league level.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on
Jul 31, 2008 12:48 PM EDT
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woah
no need to put words into my mouth….i NEVER said salty/mccann at c/1b was better than adding teixeira….far from it….what i said is that combo would have sufficed with a trade for a frontline starter instead, which was a glaring need then and even more so now….or do nothing at the deadline and have the prospects in the offseason to swing for santana or perhaps a jason bay-type to replace andruw jones’ bat in the lineup….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on
Jul 31, 2008 5:52 PM EDT
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Well
I said “better alternative” not “better player,” but let’s not argue semantics. You would have played Salty full-time (between C and 1B) in 2H 07 and 1H 08. Given what we’ve seen from Salty over the last 12 months, I’m glad the Braves didn’t make that decision.
As for your “frontline starter” idea, I have many questions. Would you have punted on the 2007 season, only 2 games out of the wild card? If not, who exactly would you have traded for, and with what? Salty (the top prize in the package for Tex) would have been your starting 1B. Not to mention that it isn’t clear that there even were any “frontline starters” available in July 2007. Perhaps you would have waited until the offseason, but that would have meant giving up on 2007, and, even then, I’m not sure that a package of Harrison, Andrus, and Feliz would have brought back a “frontline starter.”
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on
Aug 1, 2008 2:27 PM EDT
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that package
is better than what the twins got for santana, and arguably better than what the orioles got for bedard….
and honestly, at the time, i would have punted 2007 rather than acquiring another bat….even if the team got to the postseason, they would not have had the pitching to do anything….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on
Aug 2, 2008 3:49 AM EDT
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Problems
Well OK, if you were willing to punt 07, that’s fine. Obviously JS wasn’t, and I think you have to respect the decision to go for it. Personally, I would not have given up on 07 only 2 games back of the wild card and 4 (I think) back of the division, but I suppose reasonable minds can disagree. For me, getting into the playoffs and getting on a roll is entirely worth taking a gamble, eve with a somewhat flawed team. Flags fly forever, and all that.
Also, re Santana (Bedard’s not a frontline SP worth emptying the vault for in my book), would you really have felt that much better losing those prospects for one year of Santana? Which, given the team’s injuries this year, could easily have turned out much like the Tex situation did, with him getting dealt for an inferior package at the deadline? Seems to me it would have been precisely the same problem.
What was nice about the Tex deal was that not only did it essentially buy two shots at the playoffs (for 07 and 08), there was also some chance (given the GT background) that he would resign at a discount with the Braves.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on
Aug 4, 2008 2:19 PM EDT
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