Daryl Jones vs. Desmond Jennings

My Blog

after writing a piece earlier this week about Desmond Jennings and briefly comparing him to Daryl Jones, I wanted to take the opportunity to discuss both further. The similarities between the two run deep. From being former high school football standouts with major division one scholarship offers to being consistently ranked as the top athletes in their respective organizations, comparing the two players provides an interesting insight and raise questions as to what makes one prospect a household name and another a virtual unknown.

Daryl Jones turned down division one football and baseball scholarships to sign with the St. Louis Cardinals as a 3rd round pick in the 2005 draft. As with many two-sport high school stars, the learning curve is expected to be slow, but for Jones, it crawled at a snails pace. Entering 2007, Baseball America ranked him as the 10th best prospect in the system, but his performance caused his ranking to drop 21 spots making Baseball America's "Cutting Room Floor" list of prospects who just missed the cut for their Prospect Handbook. From his minor league statistics through 2007, one can see why;

Age 18 - .209/.311/.286 with 10 SB in Rookie ball
Age 19 - .248/.335/.409 with 5 SB in between Rookie and A-
Age 20 - .217/.304/.296 with 22 SB (12 CS) in A-

All of the athleticism in the world can't help save a prospect's status with these dreadful numbers. However, he remained the 2nd best athlete in the organization behind Colby Rasmus and fastest baserunner in the organization. The tools were still there, but how much longer would they take to start playing?

His 2008 statistics are beginning to tell that story;

Age 21 - .317/.399/.462 with 18 SB between A+ and AA

Jones left the FSL tied for 2nd in batting average and leading the league in OBP. He also cut his caught stealing rate significantly. Quite impressive for a player who lacked polish. He was rewarded with a promotion to AA about a week ago. Jones just turned 21 towards the end of June, so spending the rest of 2008 and at least half on 2009 in AA should be expected. A late season promotion to AAA in 2009 and possibly even a September call up could also be in order. With Colby Rasmus and a more polished, but less talented John Jay ahead of him, the Cardinals have no reason to rush Jones and likely shouldn't risk stunting his development.

Jones' FSL performance has been overshadowed by the rise of Logan Morrison and I am surprised he has not received more love from the baseball community. I can understand a half season of performance not negating three years of sub par play, but Jones is right where he should be at this point in his career and is now looking like a player who will fulfill the lofty expectations set for him when he was drafted in 2005; A true top of the order threat with 30-40 stolen base ability.

Desmond Jennings was a 10th round pick in the 2006 draft, but is 1o months older than Jones. Like Jones, he was a star wide receiver in high school who signed a scholarship to play football at Alabama in 2005. However, academic problems led to him never making it to Tuscaloosa as he spent 2006 playing baseball at a junior college. Jennings' loss turned out to be the Tampa Bay Rays gain as he made a meteoric rise up prospect charts. His minor league numbers look like this;

Age 19 - .277/.360/.390 with 32 steals in Rookie ball
Age 20 - .315/.401/.465 with 45 steals in A-
Age 21 - .259/.360/.412 with 5 steals in A+ (85 AB due to injury)

Jennings career got off to a much faster start than did Jones' leading to his surge ahead in prospect status. Entering 2008, Jennings had an overall average prospect rating of 32.25 with two rankings inside of the top 20 overall. However, his 2008 never really did get going as he began the year on the disabled list and appeared in only 24 games before shoulder surgery prematurely ended his season. He will now need a HUGE 2009 and achieve success at both A+ and AA to get back to premiere prospect status. All the tools in the world don't help if a player doesn't have the opportunity to hone them into production and Jennings is in a tough spot.

In comparing the numbers of both players, the age differential is misleading. Jones played almost half of his 2008 season as a 20 year old while Jennings turned 21 just after the 2007 season ended. Officially, they are both in their age 21 season, but the 8 month difference in age pretty significant to me. By the start of 2009, Jones will be 21 years, 10 months and will have already had about 200 AA at bats while Jennings will be 22 years, 6 months and in A+ with less than 100 at bats at the level.

In projecting the two, Jones seems to be the safest bet at this point. Jennings remains the more explosive of the two, but Jones is doing what Jennings was supposed to do at almost a year younger. Injuries are unfortunate, but sites such as Baseball America don't usually penalize prospects for missed time and this would be a mistake with Jennings. Missing a full year between the end of 2007 and 2008 is a huge blow for any player considered "raw and toolsy." Jennings will likely continue to rank well ahead of Jones on 2009 prospect lists because of name recognition leaving Jones a great value prospect play. Even with his being previously ranked as a top 10 prospect in the organization, fastest player, and best athlete, Jones remains a relative unknown. In the NL Central, Jones also will not have to face the Yankees and Red Sox about a quarter of the season which is also a big advantage.

Is Jennings still Kenny Lofton reincarnated? Only time will tell. However, if you want to play it safe and latch onto a player on the way up, Jones is your man.