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Atlanta Braves Top 20 Prospects in Review

This list was originally posted on November 16, 2007. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1) Jason Heyward, OF, Grade B+
     .324/.387/.473 with 15 steals in 16 attempts for Rome in the Sally League. Meeting/exceeding expectations, Heyward has established himself firmly as an elite prospect.
2) Jordan Schafer, OF, Grade B+
     .218/.354/.371 at Double-A Mississippi since coming off the 50-game suspension for HGH. One really has to wonder about him at this point. Was last year a fluke or an HGH-boosted result?
3) Brandon Jones, OF, Grade B+
     .257/.331/.382 for Triple-A Richmond, has actually been a bit better in the majors at .278/.316/.463. I probably overrated him by a notch but he should still be a useful player.
4) Tommy Hanson, RHP, Grade B+
      0.90 ERA with 49/11 K/BB in the Carolina League, followed by 4.08 ERA with 63/27 K/BB in 64 innings in Double-A, including a no-hitter. Somewhat erratic, but a fine prospect moving up the charts.
5) Joey Devine, RHP, Grade B
     Traded to Oakland, 1.23 ERA with 28/7 K/BB in 22 innings in the majors.
6) Brent Lillibridge, SS, Grade B
      .212/.276/.288 in Triple-A, .208/.236/.358 in the majors. Really struggling with the strike zone this year, despite doing well in Triple-A last year. Perhaps he is frustrated.
7) Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade B
      .287/.368/.434 with 11 steals for Class A Myrtle Beach. Not exactly dominating and I would like to see more pop, but he's doing ok.
8) Jair Jurrjens, RHP, Grade B 
      9-5, 3.22 ERA with 86/42 K/BB in 117 innings for the Braves. Has exceeded my expectations.
9) Cole Rohrbough, LHP, Grade B
      6.05 EA with 49/22 K/BB in 39 innings for Rome, 43 hits allowed. Obviously unimpressive in many ways, though the K/IP remains quite strong.
10) Brandon Hicks, SS, Grade B
      .240/.336/.483 with 15 homers and 12 steals for Myrtle Beach. Interesting power/speed production, but very high strikeout rate is worrisome.
11) Jeff Locke, LHP, Grade B-
      4.23 ERA with 93/32 K/BB in 117 innings for Rome, 129 hits allowed. Still a projectable strike-thrower.
12) Steve Evarts, LHP, Grade C+
      Made three starts for Rome then went on the DL.
13) Jamie Richmond, RHP, Grade C+
       Traded to Oakland. 4.60 ERA with 72/19 K/BB in 115 innings, 120 hits for Kane County. Good command but not dominant.
14) Jose Ortegano, LHP, Grade C+
       4.18 ERA with 78/22 K/BB in 80 innings, 82 hits allowed for Rome. Decent components, gets grounders, just one homer given up.
15) Kris Medlen, RHP, Grade C+
       3.75 ERA with 84/20 K/BB in 84 innings, 83 hits allowed for Double-A Mississippi. Like the K/BB and K/IP.
16) Julio Teheran, RHP, Grade C+
       Just 7 innings pitched at Danville in the Appy League, 6/2 K/BB, 3 runs allowed. Sample too small to mean much, still hype and scouting reports to go on.
17) Tyler Flowers, C-1B, Grade C+
        .278/.419/.461 for Myrtle Beach, 74 walks and 12 homers. An intruiging power/patience bat.
18) Chad Rodgers, LHP, Grade C+
        4.36 ERA with 68/27 K/BB in 85 innings, 87 hits allowed for Rome. Good control, other numbers not overly impressive.
19) Jose Ascanio, RHP, Grade C+
        Traded to Cubs, 4.23 ERA with 37/18 K/BB in 38 innings for Triple-A Iowa, 11 saves. Looks like a back-end bullpen guy.
20) Cody Johnson, 1B, Grade C+ 
        .248/.304/.443 with 16 homers for Rome....with 146 strikeouts in 359 at-bats. I try not to be paranoid about strikeouts but that's ridiculous.

Heyward looks great but I'm concerned about Schafer. The gaggle of projectable lefties at the lower levels is still working itself out. The Braves had had more depth in the past but there are still things to be happy about here.

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HGH

At the risk of sparking a flame war, I have to believe that there’s no possible way that using HGH turns a .220 hitter into a .350 hitter and vice versa. I can see where it might have an effect because it speeds up the healing process, but it’s not like taking HGH magically makes someone a better player.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jul 25, 2008 5:14 PM EDT   0 recs

HGH

Well said. Couldn’t agree more.

by Ox on Jul 25, 2008 9:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

healing?

I’m curious how faster healing doesn’t alter a players late season average. Are you trying to say that someone who holds a higher average over an entire season isn’t helped by increased stamina or faster recovery time? I’m not saying that using HGH is all that made Jordan Schafer an elite prospect, but saying it may not even played a small part is being naive.

by getupkid82 on Jul 26, 2008 8:01 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I believe the point they are making...

is that it didn’t make his batting eye better, it didn’t make him bigger, faster, stronger… The kid still has to go to the plate and do what he does. HGH doesn’t compensate for his natural talent.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Jul 27, 2008 6:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I totally agree...

I would never suggest that HGH or steroids would turn someone who was a shitty player in to an all star, and I still think JS will right the ship somewhat, but having an improved recovery time will help anyone.

by getupkid82 on Jul 27, 2008 8:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

stream of consciousness

when i look at tyler flowers, i see a complete hitter whose power has been limited due to playing a notoriously bad hitting environment, myrtle beach.

what i’ve been told is that he’s a 22 year old in A ball, and nothing he can do at this level is impressive.

so how good is he, and where does he factor in the top 20 going into next season?

by variablesdont on Jul 25, 2008 5:27 PM EDT   0 recs

Best guy not on the list

Heyward’s buddy, Freddy Freeman has looked tremendous in Low-A, and like Heyward, he’s young. He doesn’t have the defensive upside of Heyward, but the bat looks like it’ll play. I figure he’ll end up in the B-something range this year.

Also, Schafer’s numbers need to be looked at in context. These are his first 200 AA ABs at the age of 21. Like the pitchers who don’t really start throwing until June, we’re going to need to see more ABs before drawing any sort of conclusions. It’s also worth noting that his walk rate has DOUBLED over last year, and it’s not unreasonable to think he’s being pitched around given the utter lack of real bats in Mississippi.

Other interesting guy is Kris Medlen who has been lights-out since switching to the rotation a month or two back. Previously he was seen as a bullpen prospect, but it’s starting to look like he may be able to start despite his 5’10” stature. That alone would boost his stock a fair bit.

by mraver on Jul 25, 2008 5:53 PM EDT   0 recs

Freedie Freeman

If Heyward moves up to an A which I think he will then Freeman will get a B+ or higher. Freeman is hitting better than Heyward in every category except AVG. and Heyward doesn’t have as many ABs as Freeman.

by Jay212033 on Jul 25, 2008 7:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah but that has only been for the last month. Heyward outhit Freeman for the first three months or so in most categories save for homers and at one point they were tied there. Of course you didn’t say Freeman should be ranked higher so I guess its moot. But you guys are right, Freeman has been a revelation.

by yondaime4 on Jul 25, 2008 9:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Freemans Defense

Freeman may never be a gold glover but he is a solid defender.

by atl14yearsschaffer on Jul 26, 2008 12:05 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Arms

I really like Jurrjens. Ascanio looks mediocre at best. Thrower instead of a pitcher (sorry for using an overused expression).

by Ox on Jul 25, 2008 5:59 PM EDT   0 recs

Jurrjens

I’m amazed that Clay Buccholz, Phil Hughes and Alex Gordon have been chumps while freaking Jair Jurrjens of all people is a house on fire. This actually makes me like prospects less…

by fourthandeye on Jul 25, 2008 9:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Jurrjens

I’m a Tigers fan as well. Wouldn’t mind having him in the rotation this year.

by Ox on Jul 25, 2008 11:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

pitching

The guy has a great changeup, real good fastball, decent curve, and knows how to pitch better than just about any young pitcher I’ve ever seen. That is a great combination and the curve shows potential to be an out pitch.

by was385 on Jul 25, 2008 11:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Prospects

I’m sure all three will be pretty solid before it’s all said and done.

by Ox on Jul 25, 2008 11:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

re: Ascanio

Ascanio for Ohman/Infante is looking pretty brilliant at this point for Wren. Ohman is at least good for a sandwich pick if they hold on to him through the year, but I think he’ll get turned into two arms that are each more valuable than Ascanio ever was. And Infante has been great this year when he’s not been hurt. A very good bench guy. Obviously a lower profile trade than the Renteria deal, but it’s looking about as good for Wren.

by mraver on Jul 25, 2008 10:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ascanio trade

The Braves don’t screw up very often.

by Ox on Jul 25, 2008 11:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Well

There’s “The Braves” and then there’s “Frank Wren”, whose track record is much shorter. But so far, it’s not looking too bad at all. Have to see what goes down this deadline.

by mraver on Jul 26, 2008 8:48 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

well

i wouldn’t say that…..schuerholz was definitely losing his touch….i really wish that he would have retired in time to keep dayton moore…..look at what moore is doing in kansas city…..

by biggentleben on Jul 26, 2008 12:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thats rediculous.

Just because JS made one short sighted trade does not mean he was losing his “touch”. JS traded Horacio friggin Ramirez for Rafael Soriano. Hows that LaRoche/Gonzalez trade looking? JS put a championship caliber team together, cant help bad luck and underperforming. They should be among the best in the NL with the talent they have. Obviously they were depending on Smoltz/Glavine and they finally got burnt by them.

Wren also started off his career with the biggest steal since the braves traded Doyle Alexander. I know Wren gets the credit but you cant tell me JS didnt have some hand in that too. Besides, there was only 1 player traded by the braves in the Tex deal that mattered, Neftali Feliz who we pretty much all knew was a nightmare waiting to happen.

by cajunrevenge on Jul 27, 2008 8:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Cole Rohrbough, FIP vs. ERA

I’ve noticed that John seems to prefer ERA to FIP for prospects and I was wondering if there was a particular reason for this. I assumed (quite possibly incorrectly) that particularly for minor league pitchers who often have less than perfect defenses behind them, FIP would be even more useful than it is for major league pitchers. Cole Rohrbough, for example, is certainly not doing as well as he did last year, but the regression in FIP (3.56 from 2.79 in his time in A ball) is significantly less extreme than the change of his ERA (6.05 from 1.29). If you look at his peripherals, his walk rate is roughly the same as last year, and he is striking out less people than he did, but still significantly more than a person per inning. He’s giving up home runs at a slightly faster rate too. The biggest difference, though, seems to be that last year the BABIP of people hitting against him in A ball was .218, and this year it’s .390. I’m assuming from John’s comment that he thinks this is a function of Rohrbough not being as tough to hit against, but isn’t it also possible that it’s a matter of either luck or faultier defense?

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Jul 25, 2008 7:19 PM EDT   0 recs

Keep in mind

while the defenses and field conditions can be horrendously spotty at time for minor leaguers their BABIP limiting abilities (I hate typing that, sounds more like a chemist than a fan) actually ARE very important. Studies have shown that, while MLB pitchers BABIP stuff tends to not vary a whole lot much of that is because of the selection bias in your sample. Pitchers who give up lots of hits on balls-in-play simply don’t make MLB, they aren’t good enough to.

So yeah, at the minor league level BABIP-limiting is a very real and important skill for minor league pitchers and it is controllable. Guys who can’t do this get filtered out of the system every step of the way and that is why we see less variation in it at the MLB level

by nms on Jul 26, 2008 12:00 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Happy.

I’m glad to see the love for Hicks and Flowers. These guys often get overlooked by others, but I’ve been impressed with both (especially Brandon) since last year. I think they’re in the middle of the Top 10 pack for next season if everything holds up.

Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!

by ejruiz on Jul 26, 2008 11:15 PM EDT   0 recs

Flowers

should be able to be right around the top ten but Hicks’ strikeouts will solidly keep him out of the top ten. For a college player, that is just too big of a concern.

by was385 on Jul 27, 2008 1:09 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You're Right.

I went through the Braves prospects tonight and I can’t imagine Hicks cracking the Top 10 unless he curbs his K’s. I’m most curious about some pitchers and how they rank following this season. Todd Redmond is one that might not get the love because he’s such a finesse pitcher and I’m intriguied by Medlan’s conversion to starting. Locke and Ortegano have been a mixed bag, but I still like them both, even though Osuna seems to be the one putting it all together now (I always seem to lump the three together since last year). As for position players, do guys like Eric Campbell and Kala Ka’aihue make a comeback? Will any recent draftees (Spruill comes to mind) make an impact on these lists?

Please check out my blog at http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/ , now redesigned and recommited!

by ejruiz on Jul 27, 2008 1:28 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

what's the deal with

jeff lyman, i talked to him recently and he said he’s now in the rotation at myrtle beach.

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Jul 29, 2008 5:09 PM EDT   0 recs

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