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A Top 25 for Managers Needing to Fix their Rosters

Just started a new baseball blog and this is my first stab at an alternative to the run of the mill top 25 lists.  Let me know what you think!

Late July/Early August is a time of reflection for fantasy owners in deep dynasty or keeper leagues which incorporate prospects. Many prospect sites will put out mid-season prospect lists so managers can review their stable of future Cy Young and Most Valuable Player award winners and make adjustments for the seasons final few weeks. Unfortunately, for a manager taking over a new team, many of the elite prospects have been long gone for years leaving one to pick up the scraps nobody else wants.

More than one manager in my deep keeper league with thirty minors spots refers to me as a used car salesman when it comes to signing and trading prospects and I consider it a compliment. Minor league prospects values often lie in the eyes of the beholder and players can lose value quickly if you can manage to make a couple of valid points to sway the opinion of the manager you are dealing with. It's all about information and the following 25 players are a list of prospects who can likely be signed or dealt for in your league at a discount compared to what their future value might be.

As fun as seeing who every fantasy baseball sites #1 is, it's frustrating to know that many of the players are considered untouchable by their respective owners. Hopefully this can help jump start your franchise and put you in a great position for the future.

25 - Jharmidy DeJesus, 3B/OF, SEA

In the 2007 International Free Agent class, only two players received a higher bonus than DeJesus. Most hardcore baseball fans have heard of the other two in Michael Almanzar and Kelvin DeLeon, but DeJesus remains a relative unknown. With basically all of the 2007 IFA attention being devoted to Wilmer Flores, DeJesus can likely be signed today for nothing in your league. Still only 18, the only downside is the Mariners propensity for rushing players through the system at lightning speed.

24 - Adis Portillo, SP, SD

Portillo was the runner up prize in this year's IFA class as Michael Inoa completely overshadowed the rest of the field causing Portillo to remain an unknown even though he signed for over 2 million dollars. If your league allows IFA signings during the season, Portillo likely slipped through the cracks and can be signed immediately and stashed away. He's still only 16, but he's a lefty whose fastball is reportedly a pretty consistent 91-94. If the goal is building your team for the future, the reward for being patient with Portillo could be huge.

23 - Jeremy Jeffress, SP, MIL

On rare occasion, Jeffress has shown the ability to be a top 10 overall prospect. Most of the time however, he piles up huge strikeout totals and high pitch counts on his way to mediocre performances. With four consecutive so-so and an overall ERA of 4.63, now is a good time to pick him up on the cheap. Remind the owner you are dealing with about the 50 game drug suspension and laugh about the Dwight Gooden comparisons while providing a friendly reminder that Jeffress is in high A during his age 20 season while Gooden won 24 games and earned a Cy Young award with the Mets at the same age. Hopefully that will help Jeffress owners get past the triple digit radar readings and his gaudy 96 K's in 68 IP.

22 - Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS, WAS

If you haven't noticed by now, I'm a pretty big fan of raiding the International Free Agent market when building a team. The Nationals have treated Gonzalez with kid gloves since signing him in 2006 which has caused him to be forgotten by many in the fantasy baseball community. Gonzalez' bonus was actually 100k more than now top 100 list regular Carlos Triunfel and he received the 3rd highest bonus overall behind Angel Villalona and Jesus Montero. Unlike DeJesus and Almanzar who are also on this list, Gonzalez projects to actually stay at shortstop which increases his value considering that most IFA's who sign as SS's either have no bat or no glove. Gonzalez is a rarity in that he has both!

21 - Neftail Soto, INF, CIN

I'm still kicking myself for missing out on Neftali Soto in my league. I missed him by maybe five minutes as I was trying to figure out who to drop to make room while another owner swooped in and grabbed him. Soto was a 3rd round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2007 and posted a solid .303/.355/.454 line in the GCL after signing. He entered 2008 as a sleeper and has exceeded expectations and is making a run at top 100 prospect status for the 2009 season. He may still be available in your league and won't be for long. Why should he? He has already advanced a level and his current line is .359/.388/.648.

20 - Jefry Marte, 3B, NYM

Marte was signed out of the Dominican Republic for 450K during the 2007 IFA signing period. At 17, he is now tearing up the GCL to the tune of .337/.406/.596 and could open the 2009 season as a consensus top 5 prospect within the organization. With Wilmer Flores hogging all of the IFA hype, Marte likely remains unsigned in your league. If he keeps his current production for the rest of the season, fantasy owners will be falling over themselves to sign this talented prospect. Personally, I tried to deal Josh Vitters in my league believing Marte can end up being almost as good of a player.

19 - Nick Barnese, SP, TB

In another one of my brilliant moves, when minors signings opened up before the season began, I signed Donald Veal thinking Nick Barnese would slip through the cracks and I could sign him a few minutes later. In typical fashion, another manager scooped him up after reading about him in John Sickels' book and I missed the boat yet again. Barnese is likely unsigned in many leagues because of his age and being at rookie level ball. After years of doubting the Rays ability to groom pitchers, they can trot just about anybody out to the mound and I would be intrigued at this point. With a 2.33 ERA and 47 K in 38 2/3 IP, this 2007 3rd round pick and former top 100 Baseball America draft prospect needs to be signed immediately.

18 - Chris Carter, 1B/3B/OF, OAK

I have to admit that I am biased when it comes to Chris Carter as a prospect. After watching him play in the Sally League last season, I'm a believer in his ability to drive the baseball. He may never be a great hitter, but I can see a number of 35 HR 100 RBI seasons out of him and that's more than I can say about most hitters. He also makes this list because he can be had on the cheap if he's even rostered at all. With no true position and questionable athleticism, he's made for the American League and a designated hitter role. Players who project to only qualify as a DH or UT spot are a drag on roster flexibility and many managers will stay away because of it. Use this to your advantage and find a way to work out a deal for him. Unlike some, I trust his ability to hit at higher levels.

17 - Michael Main, SP, TEX

Athletes the caliber of Michael Main don't come around very often. Projected as a first rounder as both an outfielder and pitcher in the 2007 draft, his ability to play the game speaks for itself. However, his spring injury adds to his reputation for being an injury risk has caused his value to take a hit. Likely signed in most keeper and dynasty leagues, he can probably be had for peanuts as his owner is bound to be fed up by 48 career IP in 1+ professional seasons. On athleticism alone, he's worth the risk. Just don't let the manager you are dealing with know it.

16 - Michael Almanzar, 3B, BOS

Almanzar received the largest signing bonus of the 2007 IFA class and looks to be worth every penny of the 1.5 million he received. Another casualty of Flores-mania, he has quietly put together a .343/.400/.467 line and an impressive promotion to the full season Sally League. Still only 17, he is probably still available in your league and should be grabbed immediately with the intention of waiting a few years until he blossoms into the impact bat at third base he currently projects to be.

15 - Alfredo Aceves, SP, NYY

The only New York Yankee product on this list because of the hype that surrounds their prospects, Aceves was an unknown entering the season and still is. Signed out of the Mexican League at the ripe old age of 25 and assigned to the FSL in the spring, expectations were likely low for the 6'3" 220 lb. pitcher. Fast forward 108 IP and Aceves is on the cusp of Yankee Stadium as his 1.92 ERA over three levels has led to whispers of his receiving the next crack at the Yankees rotation. He would never make this list with another franchise, but the Yankees will always hit enough to give their one through five starters a chance at fifteen wins and Aceves could settle into a back of the rotation role.

14 - Julio Teheran, SP, ATL

The top pitching prospect of the 2007 IFA class, fantasy owners have been clamoring over him for months only to have him make two starts before catching the injury bug which has kept him out for a month. Being that he's only 17, the Braves are certainly not going to rush him back before he's 100%. Owners frustrated by the agonizing wait to see what Teheran can do might be willing to deal out of impatience and move onto other pitchers from the 2008 draft or IFA class. Teheran is a special talent and should be pursued diligently before he becomes untouchable.

13 - Mike Moustakas, INF, KC

Moustakas has struggled to a .252/.312/.413 line during his first full season after setting the single season California state home run record. Fantasy owners who scooped up this supposedly prodigious home run threat have been terribly disappointed and may be tempted to cut bait and move on to supposedly greener pastures. Even with his struggles, Moustakas makes for a very compelling prospect should he end up at second base. When I think Mike Moustakas, I think Dan Uggla and he's an awfully valuable fantasy player. Add him via trade if you can and give him another couple of years to work things out. Another managers impatience could be your all star second baseman of the future.

12 - Michael Saunders, OF, SEA

A bit of a wild card, Saunders possesses 20-20 ability with solid batting and on base ability. What hurts Saunders' value is that he plays for a Mariners organization who as mentioned before, likes to rush toolsy, rather raw players through the system as fast as humanly possible usually to the players detriment. After having success in the Southern League, Saunders has already been promoted to AAA and is currently putting up a .216/.284/.365 line at 21 years of age. In a perfect world, he would be demoted back to AA and be allowed to play out the season before spending a full year in AAA in 2009. Unfortunately, the Mariners don't seem to have the same plan. Saunders being rushed can be used to your advantage in a potential trade as his current AAA numbers and Mariners poor history with developing prospects makes Saunders seem like much more of a risk than he should be and his value will suffer because of it.

11 - Justin Masterson, P, BOS

Masterson looks ready to take a starting role with a big league club and run with it. With that said, he plays for an organization loaded with starting pitching at both the major and minor league levels. In turn, Masterson is now being groomed as a late inning set up man in the hopes he will do his best Joba impersonation for the remainder of 2008. Personally, he's just the type of pitcher the Braves lust after and I can envision him as the centerpiece in a Mark Teixeira deal. The Red Sox can use the insurance and Masterson has become expendable with a similar pitcher in Michael Bowden dominating AA and looking to be near ready. Use his role change to your advantage and get him before the Red Sox make a deadline move using him as the bait. Even if he's not dealt, Tim Wakefield should be ready to ride off into the sunset in about five years or so. Masterson will just be entering his prime by then.

10 - Jake McGee, SP, TB

Before going down with Tommy John surgery that will likely keep him out of action until late 2009 at the earliest, McGee may become a forgotten man in a deep Tampa Rays system. Lefties like McGee don't come around often and at 21 for another couple of weeks, he should come back as strong as ever from this setback. I've read the possibility of him being shifted to the pen upon return, but I can't imagine doing that to a top 20 overall prospect whose 6'3" frame should provide the durability and opportunity to become a very good to excellent starting pitcher.

9 - Gio Gonzalez, SP, OAK

The window to deal for Gonzalez may quickly be closing as he has been dominant for the past three weeks making owners who held onto him breathe a sigh of relief. Even with his struggles, he has allowed less than a hit per inning while registering more than a strikeout per inning in AAA. If he can just lower his walk totals, he could be a quality fantasy starter as soon as next season. Still only 22, he has time to work out the kinks and reach the potential many envision. On paper though, he's still barely a .500 pitcher with a high ERA and walk totals so he should be available. Another point to stress would be his 5'11 185 lb. frame. Most manager love pitchers 6'2" or taller so his smaller stature will do nothing but hurt his value.

8 - Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC

Injuries have held Vitters back during the 2008 season. I was looking to package him in a deal for an elite pitching prospect and I couldn't find any takers. He's still ranking pretty high on many prospect lists, but his actual value is as low as it's ever going to get. With questions about his ability to stick at third base, a move across the diamond would obviously hurt his value. That, and the fact that he was demoted from full season ball earlier in the year and you should be able to add him to your roster for half of what he would have cost this time last year. with a .344/.386/.508 line, the Cubs might try to make up for lost time by sending him to Hawaii this fall and then onto the FSL next season which could end up a huge bump in value for him.

7 - Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, STL

When people look back at the 2008 draft, don't be surprised if the player considered to be drafts best pure hitter is Brett Wallace. As polished a hitter as you'll find, his line of .333/.447//524 makes a promotion to high A likely to start the 2009 season with the possibility of finishing the year in AA. Wallace will be knocking at the door mid 2010, but will he have a place to play? Obviously Albert Pujols isn't going anywhere, but at 6'1", 245 lbs. , Wallace is not suited to stay at 3B. It's a point you can hammer home as you try to pry him away from his current owner with the expectation of Wallace contending for future batting titles.

6 - Wade Davis, SP, TB

The ship may have already sailed on Davis as he looked to have regressed slightly as his AA numbers in 2008 are less impressive than those from 2007. However, a promotion to AAA saw Davis put up goose eggs over seven innings in what proved to be a dominant first outing. Still, he was borderline untouchable in 2007 and has sustained a chink or two in the armor that should make him available in the right package.

5 - Jordan Schafer, OF, ATL

An HGH suspension and a line of .217/.353/.373 line has left fantasy baseball owners wondering how much of Schafer's 2007 breakout was his own talent or the HGH? He's a bit of a risk at this point because nobody really knows. However, he's a risk worth taking as Schafer is the long term answer to the Braves centerfield situation and will be given every opportunity to fill the void. This leaves Schafer as one of the biggest bargains around in that he was a top 25 talent coming into the season and can now be had for pennies on the dollar compared to his pre-season value.

4 - Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT

It must be frustrating for McCutchen owners to keep reading glowing reports about how the Pirates centerfielder of the future is going to be a game changing force, yet his statistics continue to be rather pedestrian to the average fantasy owner. With many owners not paying enough attention to a players age versus level, McCutchen's value continues to be much lower than his prospect status. His trade value should vary greatly by league as most owners will have trouble assessing his true worth which could lead to interesting trade opportunities.

3 - Travis Snider, OF, TOR

It took until AA for the first sign of weakness in Travis Snider's impressive offensive game. After a .313/.377/.525 outburst in 2007, Snider's current line and dreadful strikeout numbers have led to his prospect status taking a slight hit. Still, 126 strikeouts in 381 at bats is enough to make any fantasy manager question his future. That, along with his 5'11", 245 lb. frame and you have a designated hitter in the making who needs to post huge offensive numbers to remain fantasy relevant. He is still very young though and once again, managers may not have a clear understanding of his age compared to the level he is playing at and it may allow you to scoop him up. Rest assured that Snider is still projected to be a middle of the order force. Just hope the Jays don't decide to pull an Adam Lind on Snider and rush him before he's ready to produce at the big league level.

2 - Cameron Maybin, OF, FLA

The most physically gifted player on this list, Maybin remains about 70% untapped potential as his 30 XBH in just over 300 AB and close to 100 strikeouts would indicate. In my league alone, he has been traded twice already by playoff teams trying to improve their active rosters. With that said, a 30-30 talent should not be had so easily! While still very young, his strike zone judgment, the Marlins trouble developing homegrown offensive talent, and the organizations temptation to rush him to the bigs are marks against him and leave this immense talent ripe for the picking. Maybe a manager will see his current deficiencies and think more along the lines of Mike Cameron than Carlos Beltran and let this immense talent go.

1 - Mat Gamel, INF, MIL

Hard to imagine a player with a .362/.421/.584 heading a list of undervalued and unsigned players, but he heads this list for a number of reasons. Does he have a position? Is his 2008 season just an aberration? Is he blocked in Milwaukee? I'm not sure I have ever heard so many negative comments about a player who projects as a consistent .300 25 HR 100 RBI middle of the order threat for many years to come. At this moment, managers who were lucky enough to grab him early on in 2008 are looking to cash in. To think he can be had for Jeremy Hellickson whose numbers make him seem like a Kevin Slowey clone is insane. The only reason he's not a top 10 prospect is because he does not have a position and that's a pretty sorry excuse. The fact that he should be untouchable right now and is not is reason enough for him to top this list and for you to pursue him aggressively. Gamel, more than any other offensive prospect except Matt Wieters seems the surest bet to reach his potential.

1 recs | Comment 13 comments

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A Top 25 for Managers Needing to Fix their Rosters

thanks for the effort, but your link doesn’t work.

Bob (5150bosox)

by 5150bosox on Jul 25, 2008 10:10 AM EDT   0 recs

Working Link!!!

http://baseballhandyman.blogspot.com/

Also can be reached through my profile page.

Sorry!

Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.blogspot.com

by Baseball Handyman on Jul 25, 2008 10:30 AM EDT   0 recs

Snider...

“That, along with his 5’11”, 245 lb. frame and you have a designated hitter in the making”

I have to disagree with you here. I’m not saying he’ll never DH in his career, but I can’t see that happening over the next 5-8 years. After seeing him in person, I think he’s too athletic not to be able to play an adequate corner outfield position. I realize most like to get caught up in the weight, but this was a kid who in high school was athletic enough to play football at a high level, and most likely would have been a scholarship player if he didn’t quit to concentrate on baseball.

ProspectTube.com

You Video. You Scout.

by ProspectTube.com on Jul 25, 2008 11:05 AM EDT   0 recs

Response

I wrote this from the perspective of a manager taking over a franchise and having to try to sign/pilfer elite talent when there’s not much out there. Snider’s weight would be a card I would try to play in an attempt to get him. DH types are less valuable than guys that can actually stick at a position.

Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.blogspot.com

by Baseball Handyman on Jul 25, 2008 5:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What happened to...

Rasmus, Valdez, Posey?

Flaxseed oil dependent

by 3Com Park on Jul 25, 2008 2:26 PM EDT   0 recs

How about

Wieters and Price?

by tbach81 on Jul 25, 2008 4:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Response

I’m guessing these are players that can actually be gotten for leagues. Can you think of an owner that would trade those players?

by cwhitman412 on Jul 25, 2008 4:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You are right!

I wrote this with the idea of finding the biggest bargains for managers building from scratch or taking over a bad team.

I took over a REALLY bad team in the offseason and either dealt or dropped over half of the overall roster almost immediately. Something like this would have helped make the team easier to build and would have saved me many hours of research.

Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.blogspot.com

by Baseball Handyman on Jul 25, 2008 5:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Although

A few of those prospects would probably be taken in any keeper league.

Such as most of your top 5, especially Maybin and McCutchen

by cwhitman412 on Jul 25, 2008 5:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

From the Posting

the following 25 players are a list of prospects who can likely be signed or dealt for in your league at a discount compared to what their future value might be.

Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.blogspot.com

by Baseball Handyman on Jul 25, 2008 6:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Nice post

I’m always on the lookout for the deeeeep sleeper type guys, so this is right up my alley. I also enjoyed your writeups on the blog. I’ll be back for more.

by jibs on Jul 25, 2008 8:31 PM EDT   0 recs

Very nice post

Thank you. I added your blog to my daily reading list.

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Jul 26, 2008 7:11 PM EDT   0 recs

More...

Here are 25 more names, sort of in the spirit of Handyman’s post, i.e., guys that likely are available, or were at the beginning of the year. None of these guys were in BA’s 2008 Top 100 and none currently are in MLB. They are in order of how I have them on my list.

1) J Smoak – elite 2008 draftee (unsigned)
2) T Beckham – elite 2008 draftee (unsigned)
3) E Hosmer – elite 2008 draftee (unsigned)
4) B Revere – Considered an overdraft last year, but it’s not looking so now. Undersized but speedy, and to be hitting .400 at this pt in the year playing in a non-hitters’ league is special.
5) T Cahill – Having a great breakout season in 2 diff hitters’ leagues.
6) B Posey – elite 2008 draftee (unsigned)
7) Y Alonso – elite 2008 draftee (unsigned)
8) G Beckham – elite 2008 draftee (unsigned)
9) B Matusz – elite 2008 draftee (unsigned)
10) A Crow – elite 2008 draftee (unsigned)
11) M Burgess – Big time power. Needs to work on plate discipline. I’m planning to see him play tomorrow.
12) M Stanton – Highly regarded 2007draftee. Having a breakout year, power-wise. Young for Lo-A.
13) F Freeman – Highly regarded 2007draftee. Having a breakout year and young for Lo-A.
14) J Arrieta – Highly regarded 2007draftee, but fell in draft because of a mediocre last year in college. Also signed late. Impressed during the AFL and having a breakout year. Should move up to AA soon?
15) M Bumgarner – Has fantastic stats this year. Supposedly needs to work on secondary pitches. Doesnt turn 19 y/o until next week.
16) S Doolittle – Highly regarded 2007draftee. Was having a breakout year in the Cal League. Having a little trouble adjusting to AA.
17) J Montero – Questionnable whether he’ll stick at catcher, but nobody doubts his bat. IN Lo-A and wont be 19 y/o ‘til Dec.
18) W Flores – Internat’l signee, has really burst on the scene. And he wont turn 17 for 2 more weeks!
19) J Hellickson – Great year at Hi-A. Having trouble adjusting to AA but is only 21 y/o.
20) M Latos – Hard-thrower. Reminds me of Jordan Walden.
21) J Garcia – Was having a very good year, but has struggled since a brief stint in MLB. Only 22 y/o. May need more seasoning in minors.
22) M Brantley – I thought he was underrated last year. Finally getting some respect. Fantastic plate discipline, speedy, young for AA and has OBP above .400. Future leadoff hitter.
23) P Bourjos – Among minors’ leaders in SBs and doesnt get caught often. Also hitting well over .300, albeit in the Cal League, and has a little pop. Plate discipline needs some work.
24) A Escobar – Will join Brantley at top of the order? Supposedly has a slick glove.
25) C Parmelee – Highly regarded 2006 draftee. BA is low, but very good power already at 20 y/o. I might be higher on him than many.

Also, Jhoulys Chacin might the breakout pitcher of the year. But he is a Rockies prospect, which scares me some and keeps me from ranking him much higher.

Also, consider Steven Strasburg, if college pitchers are eligible. And Hitoki Iwase and Kyuji Fujikawa, if Japan Leagues pitchers are eligible; each may be coming over next year.

by rhd on Jul 27, 2008 2:01 AM EDT   0 recs

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