Jordan Schafer: A one year wonder

by Bravesin07 on Jul 20, 2008 12:33 PM EDT

What do you guys think about this. Last year at this time, Schafer was tearing up A+ ball and hitting a ton of double and playing gold glove defense. Fast forward to this year. Gets caught either with roids or knew about roids. He serves his 50 game suspension and people say, give him another chance. Well he's been back for a month in a half. Granted he hit okay in June .274 .405 .484 but he's fallen off a cliff this month .135 .297 .231 with 19 K's in 52 AB's. Overall for the year he's hitting .215 .358 .380, granted his walk pace has went up but his K's have went up too quite a bit. He also only has 15 XBH's in 158 AB's. I'm not sold on him at all and he's back to where he was hitting before last year and that was a .220-.240 hitter. I'm convinced he will never be a starting outfielder for any team.

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he's being too patient

His walk rate has doubled to 18% this year but that has also come with a strikeout rate that has risen from 22% to 31%. I think he’s putting himself behind in the count to often and that is leading to the struggles. It’s amazing though that one terrible month can tell you that he’ll never be a starting outfielder.

by was385 on Jul 20, 2008 12:37 PM EDT 0 recs

Was the last sentence sarcasm?

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jul 20, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

yeah

by was385 on Jul 20, 2008 1:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

also

it was HGH, not roids. Big difference there.

by was385 on Jul 20, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

i'm a little concerned

there are plenty of warning signs, but at the same time, his walk rate is good, his LD rate is good, and he’s shown flashes of being that same dynamic player (15 of 34 hits have gone for extra bases).

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Jul 20, 2008 1:02 PM EDT 0 recs

perhaps

if he only did more pushups and situps, he’d pull through this….

by biggentleben on Jul 20, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

throw the baby, bathwater, and the tub all out!

panic! hysteria! run for the hills!!!

this is the same type of logic that you hear drivelled on tv trying to explain that johan santana is having an off-season for the mets…..basically only looking at the won-lost record…..

by biggentleben on Jul 20, 2008 1:49 PM EDT 0 recs

EXACTLY!!!!

the Johan stuff is ridiculous. Especially when you consider most of us on this board saw it coming because of the deterioration of his peripherals last year. K/BB, BAA, OBP-A, SLG-A, etc.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jul 20, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

what did you see coming

that Johan Santana would have an almost indentically good year in 08 as 07?

by nms on Jul 20, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well, yeah, but...

Shea is, if anything, more of a pitchers’ park than the Metrodome. The NL East has been a weaker division than the NL Central. The Senior Circuit lets a pitcher pace himself by facing the pitcher or a pinch hitter 3-4 times a game. All the same, his K/9 has dropped substantially - career, it’s 9.37, this year, it’s 8.10 - while his hit rate is going up.

He was supposed to be an instant Cy contender, especially because of the league switch, but right now he’s just very very good. Unfair expectations maybe, but his slide in performance has seemed to offset the degree to which it’s easier to pitch in Shea in the NL East than in the Twin Cities in the AL Central.

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Jul 20, 2008 7:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

You are full of shit

Check your stats. The NL has the SAME OPS as a league as the AL and that is even with the pitcher hitting.

Why was Johan SUPPOSED to do ANYTHING? How about just being one of the better starting pitchers in baseball? That’s kinda something isn’t it?

Your perception is off. It ISNT markedly more difficult to pitch in Minnesota than Shea this season. BTW, I don’t think his K drop is substantial at all either.

by casejud on Jul 21, 2008 3:03 AM EDT up 0 recs

Um, simmer down, guy...

You can draw what conclusions you want from cross-league OPS. The NL East is not a very strong division this year; I didn’t use any data to back up my assertion that the AL Central of the past few years was tougher competition, with good teams in Cleveland, Chicago, and Detroit. I’m not a huge fan of comparing data across leagues when the players basically don’t play each other, but you can use it if you want. I have no data for my side of the argument.

Shea has been more of a pitchers’ park than the Metrodome 4 out of the last 5 full seasons, and the Metrodome was an outright hitters’ park or neutral for 1 or 2 of them. This year may be different, but if so I’d guess that it’s an outlier.

And what do you mean, “Why was Johan supposed to do anything?” 14 out of 20 ESPN analysts predicted he’d be the Cy Young this year. Like I said, maybe those were unfair expectations. So, in other words, he hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. You can certainly argue that no one should have listened to the ESPN guys, but that’s a different argument. I’m talking about perceptions.

Also, there’s no need to curse me out, and I’d appreciate it in the future if you didn’t.

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Jul 21, 2008 10:24 AM EDT up 0 recs

The point

I think the point is Johan could still win the Cy Young award. There’s nothing wrong with his season outside of a crappy record. Two more wins (a little more run support or a blown save or two less) and his name is in the running.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jul 21, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

True, but he's well in the middle of the heap

Santana’s having a lovely season, no question. But not best-in-the-league brilliant, like he was a few years ago in the AL. Haren and Eddy Volquez are pretty far out in front of him - and everyone else in the pack - at this point, I think.

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Jul 21, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

Best pitchers in the NL

I don’t know about Haren. I think he gets a little more press than he deserves (he’s having an excellent season, mind you). Right before the ASB, Haren and Santana had almost identical ERA”s. Just to show what one start either direction can do. Volquez has definitely been the best pitcher in the league so far but I think he might come to earth a bit (his last start against the Mets was indicative).

I guess my point is: one hot streak takes a pitcher from that pack to the front. Let’s see what Johan does with the second half. If he actually gets run support, I could see him in the top 3 at the end of the year.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jul 21, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not best in the league brilliant?

Before his last outing he had a 2.84 ERA. Johan has struck out 116 guys and only walked 38. The man is averaging roughly 6.2 innings per start. He’s been very very very very very very good. VERY good.

by METSMETSMETS on Jul 22, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yep

Sure has.

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Jul 24, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'M NOT YOUR GUY, PAL!!!

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Jul 21, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'm not your buddy, friend!

He’s not your friend, guy!

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Jul 21, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sorry

i didnt curse you out though. I told you i thought you were full of shit. I guess that is a matter of perceotions too. YES, the expectations were out of line. Santana isn’t pitching in an easier environment and he’s about the same pitcher he was last year…a very, very good one.

by casejud on Jul 21, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Look, I don't know what your definition of "curse out" is...

But to me, saying “you’re full of shit” is cursing me out. There are plenty of ways you can be nasty and insulting without resorting to four-letter words.

Can we leave it at that?

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Jul 21, 2008 10:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sure

Im sorry man.

I just found it annoying that you are saying all this negative stuff about Johan when he has basiclly pitched really well for the Mets this year.

I just didn’t/ don’t understand the point of criticizing him. ...a bunch of guys who can’t prdict the outcome of even a coin-toss predicted he’d go 21-3 with a 1.95 ERA and 275 K’s and he hasn’t….so what?.....he’s “only” been realy good…and people are dissapointed. Seems stupid to me.

by casejud on Jul 22, 2008 3:55 AM EDT up 0 recs

For one thing

The AL Central and AL West are pretty weak divisions. The Angels should be a couple games above .500 at the most based on their run differentials and their ability to run into outs. The A’s, although they never cease to amaze me, are an easy team to beat, the Rangers are absolute crap are so are the Mariners. Also the Chi Sox are riding on the backs of unreliable pitchers, the Twins on unreliable players overall, and the Tigers are running on a good lineup, but pretty terrible pitching.

The NL East isn’t a great division, the AL East is the best by far. However, the NL East could hold its own for the second or third best.

by METSMETSMETS on Jul 22, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

HMM

What NL division has the 3 best records in league? Whose last place team has 1 fewer win than the East’s 4th place team? Has 4 teams with 50+ wins? The Central is BY FAR a superior division than the LEast.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Jul 23, 2008 10:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Probably a bit of an over reaction.

See how it looks at the end of the year. I’d also point out, that he’s having a lot of trouble with lefties and seemingly facing more than his share of them.

OPS VS righties: 965 in 81 AB
OPS VS lefties 551 in 64 AB

by benzalman on Jul 20, 2008 2:02 PM EDT 0 recs

well, that makes me feel a little bit better.

not much, though.

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Jul 20, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

And guys struggle as they move up a level…

by 17843 on Jul 20, 2008 2:51 PM EDT 0 recs

aslo his XBH ratio is still pretty damn good, which is always a good indicator that he’s got something left in him.

by yondaime4 on Jul 20, 2008 4:32 PM EDT 0 recs

re

his xbh:ab is worse than 1:10, which is a terrible ratio.

In my own rudimentary studies on why certain players bust, the thing that was most in common was a ratio of worse than 1:10

by blee1134 on Jul 20, 2008 6:32 PM EDT 0 recs

i was going more off his % of hits for XB. you’re right about the XBH:AB thing but he has been a bad slump for a couple weeks. So when he hits, he hits it hard. We’ll see if he can come out of the slump.

by yondaime4 on Jul 20, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

1 in 10 sounds about average

If you put that at a 550 at bat season, that’s 55 XBH. Say about 30 doubles, 5 triples, and 20 homers. Or something like that. Doesn’t look too bad to me if he can keep it up.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jul 20, 2008 6:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

Isn't The Jump To AA...

Considered by many to be the toughest to make for prospects? Let’s assume it is. Jordan Schafer is still 21, making his first appearance in AA, and doing it after missing the first 50 games of the season, and I believe he wasn’t allowed to workout within the organization while suspended. So he basically went through spring training, took about two months off, then came back and has played his first games of the year at a new level where he’s young for the league. I imagine he’s feeling extra pressure to perform given what has happened. Doesn’t sound like a recipe for success. At worst I’d take this to mean he was maybe overrated a bit, but not a one year wonder.

"I hate the people that love me, and they hate me!"

by Brett Keith on Jul 20, 2008 7:31 PM EDT 0 recs

Hopefully this will quiet down the "Starting CF in 09!" people

I was never all that comfortable with giving an A-ball player a future starting job, and Schafer’s travails may serve to give him the extra development time he may have needed anyway. I really, really dislike rushing prospects based on a team’s holes with no interest to the player’s development. Now Jordan will have more time on the farm and will get to battle Gorky Hernandez for the CF of the future crown, and a little competition never hurt anybody.

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Jul 20, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Couldn't have...

...said it better. It’s the best pitching he’s ever faced in his life at the time when he is least prepared and under the most expectations. He remains EXACTLY as good of a prospect as he was or, should have been, before.

by casejud on Jul 21, 2008 3:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

The guy was busted for HGH

Anyone who thinks he’s “exactly as good a prospect as before” is looking at him through rose-colored glasses. I’m not saying he’s tarnished or tainted, he’s still a good prospect. But is he exactly as good as he was before this season? I don’t think so, and neither do most people, I’m guessing.

by Flynn Blake on Jul 22, 2008 12:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

+1

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jul 22, 2008 1:15 AM EDT up 0 recs

-1

Equals zero

by casejud on Jul 22, 2008 3:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

Why...

...do I care if “most people” feel that way? Doesn’t have shit to do with whether or not Schafer will become a solid big leaguer. He’ll have to earn that and he will, I believe. HGH does not a player make. I like him just as well as before. He just isn’t overated like before…hes now underated. I don’t look at him with rose colored glasses. I look at him like i did before… real good CF… decent bat for the position. Kinda like a Mark Kotsay maybe? a healthier one.

by casejud on Jul 22, 2008 4:00 AM EDT up 0 recs

My goodness, you are full of yourself

by Flynn Blake on Jul 22, 2008 4:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

Thanks

seriously, i don’t see how “most peolpe” saying something when most people can be so wrong about many things. I just do my own thinking, thats all. Try to at least.

by casejud on Jul 23, 2008 4:08 AM EDT up 0 recs

Seriously, are you kidding?

I know it’s been said in other ways, but it is a little early (understatement) to judge Schafer. He’s been back for six weeks. You said yourself that he was pretty good for the first 4.

So, you are “condemning” Schafer on the basis of a 2 week slump? Please.

My expectations of him are exactly what they were 9 months ago. He will be a very good defensive centerfielder with a decent ML bat.

by parish on Jul 22, 2008 10:20 AM EDT 0 recs

+1

Kinda sounds like what i said. I agree with you.

by casejud on Jul 23, 2008 4:07 AM EDT up 0 recs

Easy Now

This is Bravesin we’re talking about after all. There’s no slump short enough for him to completely write off any particular prospect. Well, except Carlos Gomez with a Bruce-esque 15 to 98 BB to K ratio and 5 HR in 400 ABs. :) But at least he hit for the cycle ....

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Jul 23, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up 0 recs