Old Dogs, New Tricks and Nelson Cruz

by Dalman on Jul 20, 2008 9:22 AM EDT

This post is partially about Nelson Cruz, but also about the more general question of whether there is anything a 28 year old can do in AAA ball to change your/our evaluation of him.

Cruz's performance this year is getting to the point where it is difficult to process. As of this morning he is hitting .245 with 30 hrs. In 162 game notation he is at .345/57/152 with 40 sbs in 53 attempts. His OPS is the best of anyone in full season ball from the midwest league to the PCL. This isn't just another nice performance, if this were being done by Jay Bruce, or Cameron Maybin or someone of that ilk we'd be organizing national "Free XXXX" rallies and passing around conspiracy theories as to why he is still down.

Obviously Cruz is a different case. He's 28, has put up good numbers in the minors before and has bombed in the majors on multiple chances. I think the fallacy in what I just said, though, is that what he has done this season, and if you look back, in his time in hsi short time in Oklahoma last year isn't just good numbers, they are absolutely ridiculous.

I think he deserves another look and that we might just get different/better results from him this time even if he is 28. Thoughts?

0 recs | Comment 8 comments

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Nelly will get another shot

It’ll have to wait until some trades are made, but he’ll get called up around trade-deadline time. The possible payoff is too big for Texas to keep him in AAA forever.
That being said, if he fails once more he’s getting shipped out for whatever’s out there-or just plain released.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Stuff-You-Need-Brett-Favre-action-figure-bench?urn=nfl,93739

by BudLight on Jul 20, 2008 10:15 AM EDT 0 recs

Japan

He’s the type of guy I could see going over to Japan.

by rdf8585 on Jul 20, 2008 11:40 AM EDT 0 recs

I'd expect Texas to give him another shot

once they trade marlon byrd for peanuts or Milton Bradley

by FirebatM3 on Jul 20, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Japan

That’s not a bad route for a guy like Cruz. He could make big yen for the next 5 years instead of shuttling back and forth between AAA and major league platoons for little more than league min.

by jibs on Jul 20, 2008 9:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

He just went deep again

That makes 31 bombs and 4 in the past two days

"Here comes the version of Benoit that lets the other team put it out of reach. I hate that version."
-Athos

by SaltyDawg on Jul 20, 2008 9:01 PM EDT 0 recs

Cruz

Who can prove he won’t have Carlos Pena’s career?

Go Strangers.

by hightowersmith on Jul 21, 2008 3:09 AM EDT 0 recs

um

PROVE?
I don’t think anyone can PROVE anything when it comes to forecasting a baseball players career. That is pretty strong language. And at any rate, it doesn’t matter. It isn’t about prove. It is about likelihoods and clinging to outliers doesn’t really do much good.
If everyone brought up every outlier or overachiever we couldn’t say anything about any player.

Cruz COULD become a good OF, no one denies that he doesn’t have some legit power and he has the speed and arm to be a good corner OF. But he also, undoubtedly, has some trouble making contact with quality pitching. Him (and a guy like Dallas McPherson – who is walloping things in Albuquerque) are in similar boats. Talented players who are currently in the exact situations to best show off their strengths (PCL hitters parks).

Even with this great year I don’t think the odds of Cruz becoming a solid MLBer are that much higher now. He still “is-what-he-is,” as they say. And what he is has plenty of good things about it, but also some problems

by nms on Jul 21, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

Pena

Carlos Pena was a semi-productive major league hitter from the age of 23 and had 85 career HR by the end of his age 27 season. That should be enough statistical evidnece to “prove” that he won’t have Carlos Pena’s career.

by rwperu34 on Jul 21, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up 0 recs