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Thinking About Luke Hochevar

Hochevar_medium

A quick take on Luke Hochevar.

Last year Hochevar went 4-9, 4.86 with a 138/47 K/BB in 152 innings between Double-A Wichita and Triple-A Omaha, allowing 163 hits and a 0.88 GO/AO ratio. Scouts reported stuff that was consistently above average or plus, though the results did not always match the talent. He gave up 24 homers and seemed quite vulnerable to the gopher ball, elevating too many pitches especially when behind in the count.

For the Royals this year he is 5-6, 4.91 with a 50/39 K/BB in 84.1 innings, with 88 hits allowed. There is some typical deterioration you see in components as a player moves up a level, but of interest is a sharp difference in his GO/AO marks...1.74 this year in the majors. He's given up eight homers, a far cry from his home run pace last year. The numbers confirm the scouting reports and what I see on TV: he's doing a much better job keeping the ball down this year.

He still has some work to do, lowering his walk rate and improving his consistency and command within the strike zone. Left-handed hitters chew him up (.332/.394/.527) and he needs another weapon and/or sharper command against them. He throttles right-handed hitters effectively at .223/.309/.312. Month-to-month performance can be somewhat misleading given the sample sizes involved, but he has gotten better as the season progressed, lowering his ERAs (5.91, 4.71, 4.02 April through June) with gradual improvement in the components, a lower walk rate in June being notable.

In short, Hochevar is coming along. He's not a terrific pitcher yet, but he is making progress. I can see him easily developing into a solid number three, inning-eating ground ball getter. If he sharpens his command and boosts his strikeout rate, he could be a number two guy.

0 recs | Comment 8 comments

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Jeff Suppan on a good day?

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 2, 2008 9:21 PM EDT   0 recs

Poor man's Tim Hudson

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jul 2, 2008 9:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Aaron Cook?

Jake Westbrook?

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Jul 2, 2008 11:54 PM EDT   0 recs

+1

He also reminds me of Storm Davis and Corey Lidle.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jul 3, 2008 12:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

his slider....

what ever happened to his slider? I remember seeing him at Tennessee thinking to myself that his slider was one of the nastier pitches I had remembered seeing in a long time. It was a true strikeout pitch if i’ve ever seen one. Then when he was drafted I read reports that Scott Boras of all people instructed him to stop throwing it to save his arm and I dont think he’s ever fully regained the command and devastation of his old slider. Any comments on that?

by loop on Jul 3, 2008 1:18 AM EDT   0 recs

Hochevar

I had not heard the slider story, but if true it matches rumors about Boras doing similar things with other players.

I don’t think the Suppan comps holds, Hochevar has better stuff. Tim Hudson if everything works out is a possiblity. Storm Davis perhaps as a lesser outcome.

by John Sickels on Jul 3, 2008 1:36 AM EDT   0 recs

The GB rate

is really intriguing. If that holds going forward and he can drop his walk rate a bit, he could develop into a nice #2 or even a #1 if he reaches his potential. A plus 2 seamer is deadly when mixed in with some other nice pitches, and Hochevar can always reach back and hit the mid-90’s when he needs it.

Overall, I’m a lot more bullish on Hochevar than I am on Pelfrey. Tim Hudson does seem like a good comp.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 3, 2008 10:33 AM EDT   0 recs

Derek Lowe

If he gets his BB rate down.

by royallyspeaking on Jul 8, 2008 4:21 PM EDT   0 recs

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