AL-only real sleepers and faux sleepers: revisited

by The Congo Hammer on Jul 2, 2008 12:20 AM EDT

With the season halfway over, let's take another look at the list i compiled in early march:

Real Sleepers -

Ervin Santana - Has been pitching like the borderline ace he has potential to be, remains composed in most outings with better stuff and higher K/BB

Scott Baker - Has been very solid, with 5 consecutive quality outings, pitching just about as well as I had expected with the same strong K/BB

Zach Greinke - Exploded onto the scene as one of best pitchers, has cooled off since but overall has still been quite good

Boof Bonser - started ok, but collapsed in rotation, has sucked in bullpen as well, he might be traded or in minors soon

Andy Sonnanstine - BABIP indicates he should be better, but has been merely average despite good record, not King as many this season.

Daniel Cabrera- just like I predicted, no ace but has made strides in GB% and BB, certainly becoming better pitcher but Ks decreasing with it

Casey Janssen - injured - out for year

Aaron Laffey - started on fire, has been shakier since but overall stats are still very good with low Ks but great GB numbers

John Danks - Has been one of best pitchers in majors this year, a real find for those who took the risk, strong all-around

Brandon McCarthy - injured, expect him to struggle upon initial return

Jeremy Sowers - Guess I was wrong here, stuff if just too week. Needs to improve control, I still have hope he can have a Litsch season

Kason Gabbard - started good, gradually declined, still ok for a texas pitcher, but on DL now

Faux Sleepers:

Brandon Morrow - Great in bullpen, lack of development may not hurt him if he sticks in set-up man or closer role.

Jon Lester - Despite weak periphs, K/BB indicating soon regression, has been very good thus far + no-no

Adam Loewen - had terrible control, now injured

Gavin Floyd - BABIP anomaly but has also improved as a pitcher somewhat, so overrated but still quite good

Troy Patton - injured, out for year

Jesse Litsch - pinpoint control has allowed for good W-L and ERA despite many hits allowed, how long can he last?

JP Howell - sure enough, ended up in bullpen, but has done quite well there and could soon be set-up man

Edwin Jackson - started strong, now showing old inconsistencies, still better than 07 though

Kevin Slowey - better than Sowers, roughly as good as baker though still more hype, has been especially dominant recently

Dallas Braden - hasn't really gotten much of a chance, meh as mid reliever, doubt he'll get to do much more than that

Joe Saunders - another candidate for big second half decline, BABIP etc, but still very good, I erred in underrating grounballer

Brian Bannister - hot start but came back to earth, overall as average as I had expected him to be

So what's the lesson in this? Essentially, when it comes to starting pitching, it really is a crapshoot. Other than that, i guess the only others are appreciate the groundball at least as much as the K (D-Cab, Laffey, Saunders), look for pitchers with great control and good stuff (Baker, Slowey), and hope to just get lucky sometimes (Floyd). Any other ideas based on this list that can help predict who is overrated and underrated?

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Litsch is living off the Jays defense

With Rolan, Wells, McDonald, and Rios taking the field most nights right now, his approach to pitching is perfect for keeping him in a game.

by tdot mariner fan on Jul 2, 2008 12:39 AM EDT 0 recs

Disagree

Wells has been very mediocre this year, often looking downright lazy in the outfield. Moreover, he and Rolen missed significant time and Litsch performed well in their absences. Also, McDonald has seen limited playing time this year and is currently used as a late innings defensive replacement. Litsch has performed well due to his ability to mix his pitches which all seem to have great movement. He will never be an ace, but Litsch could perform at an Arroyo level (before he sucked) for a few seasons.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jul 2, 2008 4:02 AM EDT up 0 recs

Morrow comment

I don’t understand this comment on Morrow: “Brandon Morrow – Great in bullpen, lack of development may not hurt him if he sticks in set-up man or closer role.”

Maybe his 3rd pitch didn’t develop (yet), but he’s had dramatically better control this season than ever before (even than college). I’d call that “development”, especially since the K’s have actually gone UP at the same time. In fact, I’d consider him for a short list of the pitchers who’ve shown the most “development” in 2008. Certainly the sample size is too small to draw strong conclusions, but so far, it appears to be the sort of emergence every organization dreams of when they draft a “stuff” pitcher like Morrow.

by BobbyMac on Jul 2, 2008 3:26 AM EDT 0 recs

Morrow has been a different pitcher in 2008.

His development has been one of the few good things to come out of this season so far.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by acblue on Jul 2, 2008 4:49 AM EDT up 0 recs

eh

I meant Morrow’s development on stronger secondary pitches. He has two pitches that are nasty that he can get over for strikes, but I was saying while that’s enough to succeed in the bullpen he wouldn’t as much as a starter. I just think he could have helped the team more in the rotation, even though he is valuable at the moment.

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Jul 2, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

His secondary pitches are much, much better this year.

As in, they actually exist. He needs to be sent down to AA NOW, and after he’s stretched out moved up to AAA. There’s still a chance he can be a starter (and I believe it’s more of a possibility now than I did at the beginning of the year) but the window is closing fast. The M’s are in a spot where they HAVE to find out what they have with Morrow and the rest of their advanced prospects, because that’s going to be a huge factor in how they proceed going into the trade deadline/offseason.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by acblue on Jul 3, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

Response

I don’t think the window is closing at all. If anything, it’s more open than it was before thanks to improving his secondary stuff and his control against major league competition.

If Brandon Morrow were a starter in the minors last year and this year, his MiLEs would be pretty awesome. Huge K rates with a dramatic improvement in command this year. He’d be one of the elite pitching prospects in the game.

by mrkupe on Jul 4, 2008 2:50 AM EDT up 0 recs

The longer the teams sees him as a reliever, the smaller the chances he'll ever be anything else.

Maybe I’m just a bit negative.

by acblue on Jul 4, 2008 3:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

yeah

but the fact that Bavasi’s not running the ship anymore makes me a little more optimistic that he’ll get to pitch in the rotation, but if I had to bet on it i’d put it all on him staying a reliever and closer for a large chunk of his MLB career. I think it may come down to how bad the rest of the rotation is in the near future (I’m looking at you, Silva and Washburn)

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Jul 4, 2008 10:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

I think Washburn gets traded to an NL team.

And while Silva is a huge waste of money, in terms of talent he’s fine for the back end of a rotation. That still leaves two rotation slots to fill for next season (Batista should be in the pen) and my biggest concern is that the M’s leave him in the bullpen for the rest of the season, then try to stretch him out during the spring or something comparably dumb.

If he’s sent down now it’s possible that he’s ready to start next year, and if he needs more time, you’ll know for sure. All that aside, even if he never starts a game for the Mariners, he’s been a lot of fun to watch this year, and while using the fifth pick in the draft on a reliever is certainly less than ideal, a lights-out relief ace is still a pretty valuable player. Even the worst team in the majors will occasionally give it’s fans something to be happy about, and this season, along with Jeremy Reed finally becoming a useful player, Morrow’s awesomeness has been a huge bright spot.

by acblue on Jul 4, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

hell, i just traded gavin floyd and scott elbert for tim hudson in my DMB league

it really pains me to move floyd, but he was the most movable piece that i have, and i really wanted to land a horse for the front end of my rotation.

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Jul 2, 2008 12:32 PM EDT 0 recs