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Around SBN: Spencer Hall's Sports Meme Power Rankings

Lars v. Weglarz v. Morrison

John's post on Logan Morrison piqued my interest in him as a prospect, so I decided to start looking into his numbers against what I feel like are two very comparable prospects.  The breakdown for 2008 results is as follows:

All 3 prospects are 20 years of age, with a grand total of 3 1/2 months separating the 3.  All 3 have logged pretty much all of their time through mid-July in high-A ball (with Lars just recently getting the promotion to AA).  Lars and Weglarz have logged their time in the very hitter-friendly Carolina League, whereby Morrison has been in the pitcher-friendly FSL.  Lars has by far the most hitter-friendly home ballpark, the bandbox that is Lancaster.

From a pedigree perspective, Lars was a 22nd round pick, but thought of as a much better talent than 22nd round who dropped due to signability concerns.  Morrison was a similar talent, though maybe not thought of quite as highly as Lars.  Weglarz was a 3rd round pick of Cleveland.  None of the 3 have much speed, with Weglarz leading the pack with 6 SB's and 4 triples.

Statistically, they are all 3 pretty darn similar from their 2008 production.  Weglarz has posted a .279/.405/.457 line to date, good for a .178 IsoP.  He has K'd 66 times in 315 AB's, while drawing 62 BBs.  Lars posted a .317/.408/.513 line in Lancaster, good for a .196 IsoP.  Lars compiled 306 ABs, 64 Ks and 46 BBs.  Morrison has posted a .347/.410/.520 line, good for a .173 IsoP.  He has compiled 323 ABs, with 53 Ks and 36 BBs.

Clearly, based on this year's production, there is not much difference at all.  Honestly, at first glance although Lars has the higher IsoP, he grades out the weakest of the 3 given his massive home park advantage.  But I think that is somewhat nullified by the fact that Boston did promote him to AA, thinking he is ready for the challenge.  Morrison has not drawn the same amount of walks that Weglarz and Lars have, but still a 53:36 K:BB ratio is pretty good for a 20 yr old in high A ball.  Morrison does seem to have been a little "lucky" in his BABIP, while Weglarz seems a little "unlucky". 

So, my conclusion?  I would give Weglarz the very slight nod right now.    I love Weglarz's patience at the plate, as his K:BB is almost 1:1.  I also read recently that one scout thought that Weglarz looks like he is starting to break out, as he might have been battling through some minor injuries early on in the year. 

I would love to get the community's opinion though.  Anyone else see this comparison differently?

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments

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these guys have seemed real close for a while now,

Lars gets such a boost from his park,
and I love Morrisons potential.

But I might agree with you that Weglarz is leading the pack

by god allah star on Jul 18, 2008 7:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

note

Lars was in the hitting heaven California league, while Weglarz has been in the more neutral Carolina.

by gogotabata on Jul 18, 2008 7:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

MLE's

Set to a neutral major league team;

Weglarz-.212/.294/.325
Morrison-.278/.331/.401
Anderson-.201/.264/.306

Set to Lancaster in the Cal League;

Weglarz-.343/.464/.561
Morrison-.437/.509/.657
Anderson-,.317/.411/.513

K%-Probably unbiased, or close to it, by park
Wegalrz-17.5%
Morrison-14.4%
Anderson-18.3%

Signing Bonus-
Weglarz-$435k
Morrison-$420k
Anderson-$825k

I had Weglarz a good ways ahead of Anderson, then Morrison heading into the year, so it would be hard for me to say either of these two have caught/passed him. I do think Morrison had caught or passed Anderson until the move to AA, although I never had them that far apart.. We’ll know a lot more about Lars in a month and a half.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2007/12/31/17313/458#2387531

by rwperu34 on Jul 18, 2008 7:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Curious...

it’s quite possible that because Morrison is doing what he is doing in the FSL that those numbers are translating differently that Weglarz and Lars. Using one method to evaluate prospects that are in completely different situations is difficult. Maybe the MLE over compensates because of that.

I would say all three are doing great, and it all comes down to scouting to decide which order they should be in. But I don’t think it’s possible to factually say one is better than any other at this point in their minor league careers based on numbers or situation.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jul 18, 2008 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

MLE

They definitely need to be taken with a grain of salt. Even if they did account for batted ball luck, which these don’t, I’ve never fully trusted them. What I do trust them for is who plays in how extreme of a hitters park. Not that we needed a fancy MLE calculator to tell us Lancaster is a hitters haven or the FSL is a pitchers league, but it’s pretty fun running the nubers through there:)

Just looking at those numbers, it would be “obvious” that Morrison is far and way the best prospect of this bunch. I don’t think anybody really believes that, including me. I’ve still got Weglarz rated the highest. In fact, I think most of the prospecting world would agree that all three of these guys are fairly close, and none of them is an elite prospect at this point.

by rwperu34 on Jul 18, 2008 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right now, if I had to guess

who will be the best ML 1B, I think I would pick Anderson because he is the most advanced power prospect of the three even considering the Lancaster effect. I think Weglarz is the best prospect among the three becuase of his ability to play a mediocre LF and he might be the best athlete of the three players. I think we will know a lot more by this time next year.

by sdtribefan on Jul 19, 2008 4:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

one thing...

...I haven’t seen taken into account in these analyses is the fact that Lars was fighting through a wrist injury in mid/late May into early June. That might skew his statistics somewhat. Have Weglarz or Morrison encountered any injury issues this year?

by LeftyTG on Jul 19, 2008 12:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

re:

Weglarz had an ankle injury I believe, which looked like it affected him for a bit.

by hybrid on Jul 19, 2008 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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