FanPost

Lars v. Weglarz v. Morrison

John's post on Logan Morrison piqued my interest in him as a prospect, so I decided to start looking into his numbers against what I feel like are two very comparable prospects.  The breakdown for 2008 results is as follows:

All 3 prospects are 20 years of age, with a grand total of 3 1/2 months separating the 3.  All 3 have logged pretty much all of their time through mid-July in high-A ball (with Lars just recently getting the promotion to AA).  Lars and Weglarz have logged their time in the very hitter-friendly Carolina League, whereby Morrison has been in the pitcher-friendly FSL.  Lars has by far the most hitter-friendly home ballpark, the bandbox that is Lancaster.

From a pedigree perspective, Lars was a 22nd round pick, but thought of as a much better talent than 22nd round who dropped due to signability concerns.  Morrison was a similar talent, though maybe not thought of quite as highly as Lars.  Weglarz was a 3rd round pick of Cleveland.  None of the 3 have much speed, with Weglarz leading the pack with 6 SB's and 4 triples.

Statistically, they are all 3 pretty darn similar from their 2008 production.  Weglarz has posted a .279/.405/.457 line to date, good for a .178 IsoP.  He has K'd 66 times in 315 AB's, while drawing 62 BBs.  Lars posted a .317/.408/.513 line in Lancaster, good for a .196 IsoP.  Lars compiled 306 ABs, 64 Ks and 46 BBs.  Morrison has posted a .347/.410/.520 line, good for a .173 IsoP.  He has compiled 323 ABs, with 53 Ks and 36 BBs.

Clearly, based on this year's production, there is not much difference at all.  Honestly, at first glance although Lars has the higher IsoP, he grades out the weakest of the 3 given his massive home park advantage.  But I think that is somewhat nullified by the fact that Boston did promote him to AA, thinking he is ready for the challenge.  Morrison has not drawn the same amount of walks that Weglarz and Lars have, but still a 53:36 K:BB ratio is pretty good for a 20 yr old in high A ball.  Morrison does seem to have been a little "lucky" in his BABIP, while Weglarz seems a little "unlucky". 

So, my conclusion?  I would give Weglarz the very slight nod right now.    I love Weglarz's patience at the plate, as his K:BB is almost 1:1.  I also read recently that one scout thought that Weglarz looks like he is starting to break out, as he might have been battling through some minor injuries early on in the year. 

I would love to get the community's opinion though.  Anyone else see this comparison differently?

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