I actually had Shaw in there, but decided to limit my HM to 10. He was the last cut. I wasn’t sure of his ceiling though. I think it might be another #4 SP type, without a plus MLB FB (but still good).

And I didn’t even know who Rafael Fernandez was until the past week. I’ve been meanign to look him up.

The depth isn’t bad here, when there are other interesting guys, like Nieuwenhuis in the 40-50 range. If I had looked at his numbers first (.378 OBP) I might have included him in the HM list.

But I also left out Vineyard, who I skipped because of the injury, but probably should still mention if I’m going this deep. There’s Eric Niesen has good bullpen potential with low to mid 90’s heat from the left side, and a good slider to go with it. I just don’t think he’s a SP, and especially with his arm slot, he’ll struggle vs. RH hitters without a better changeup. Nick Carr has a good live arm, just struggling with his command some. And Ryan Coultas is one of my favorite sleepers here; the best raw stuff I’ve seen out of the St. Lucie pen this year, he just needs more pitching experience to be a good bullpen prospect.

My back end was weak; I had already revised it, throwing out the last 4 names (all lower ceiling guys, except maybe Abruzzo) and adding Rodriguez.

As for Duda, he has the bat speed, but has trouble with breaking balls. His drop in power this year has mainly been from struggling with breaking pitches, and being less aggressive on the fastball as he looks more for the curve. If the pitch recognition improves, the power will return. I think Ike Davis may have a similar problem. Davis in college often tended to start the swing early, looking fastball, and then be out in front and have to slow it down to hit the breaking stuff.

I can’t rate Duda too high though, as he is clearly less impressive than either Evans or Carp were the past 2 seasons, has a lower ceiling IMO, and is older on top of it. Abbruzzo is probably ahead of him as well; Abruzzo has similar power, can really crush a fastball, and might even have a small chance to stay behind home plate.

As for Evans, while he is better vs. LHP, he is hitting .285/.329/.512 against RHP this year in his first stint in AA at age 22. That doesn’t look like a platoon player to me. Most RH hitters will hit lefties better. Evans at the moment is over matched vs big league RHP who can bust him in with a plus FB. I believe he will make the adjustment; I’ve seen him make similar adjustments at lower levels.

Murphy, I don’t much believe he will stick at 2B, but I think he;ll stick at 3B (though his D there needs work too). He’s not a future all-star, but I believe enough in the bat to think he can be a starting MLB 3B down the road.

Parnell doesn’t have as high a ceiling as Holt, mainly because he doesn’t sustain his velocity as well deep into games. He does have similar peak velocity to what Holt projects to have, and his slider is better right now. He’s pretty much ready for a bullpen role now., whereas Holt is much farther off.

My biggest doubt on my list is where to rank some of the lower level pitching, especially the international signees. The upper level guys I’ve mostly seen when they came through A+ ball. For the guys who have gone through the draft, there is at least usually some reliable scouting on them. And for hitters, stats at least still have a bit of use at lower levels. But I have very little info I trust on guys like Cleto, Meija, and Ramirez.

If he keeps it up, he’s in the top 10. Maybe he already deserves to be.

I have seen him once, and was impressed. Looks like the FB is a bit above average, and the CU may be plus. And he has the complete repertoire, with an effective curve. His stuff really seems to work well together.

Funny, the Mets may only have 1 “lock” top 100 guy, but the next dozen all might seem legit contenders in the next 100. The problem here isn’t “depth” it’s they could use one or two more elite top end talents to emerge.

No doubt?

A .689 OPS isn’t completely awful for an 18-year old catcher in a full season league, but it hardly proves he can hit. Especially when his plate discipline is non-existent.

Niese’s control is still a bit of a project.

I don’t agree about Niese’s. He profiles more as a #4 type for me. Average fastball (at best), good curve, below avg change. Somewhat above average command, although I’m not sure how good it is within the strike zone. He’s having a nice year, sure, but it’s not any better than Kevin Mulvey’s was last year.

Some people consider Holt to be one of the better picks in the first round. See the writeup by Alex Eisenberg. There were only a couple of guys he gave better than a B+ grade to (Collier and Cole—but he didn’t grade most of the top 10).

And I mostly agree with Jeck on Niese’s ceiling. For a lefty, his FB is maybe a tick above average, but it’s not really “plus”. He has a shot at a #3 SP, but #4 is more likely. But he’s also far closer to being ready than a guy like Holt who really has no secondary offerings yet (though the slider at least has some potential). Jeck it seems is putting very heavy emphasis on ceiling.

My bet would be that Holt and Davis in particular, while they may have higher ceilings in theory, are in practice still very unlikely to ever have as much value as Niese will.