The "Middle Class" Free Agent Player

by count sutton on Jul 15, 2008 11:54 AM EDT Comment 8 comments

There was a recent post about over-valuing prospects which got me thinking about the impact of that on baseball.

For context on my thoughts, I think prospects are largely overvalued, but I can understand why. Long term, a few busts and one success cost less than free agents. I also believe that free agents are largely overpaid, yet I also understand why as it comes to impact players. For example, someone will overpay for Tex this offseason, but that does not mean it is a bad investment. I can see teams building around overpaid impact players and filling the rest of their roster with cost controlled products of the farm system. There are - of course - exceptions, but I think successful teams are trending down this path somewhat.

I wonder about the average player. Think Carlos Silva. We all know that contract stinks. I put Jeff Suppan into this category as well. These guys are average - at best - players. I think teams are getting wiser and less deals like this will be made.

As an example, what will Andre Ethier get when he becomes a free agent? Anything? A one year deal here and there until he is irrelevant?

Ultimately, I think the long term impact of teams (wisely) paying more attention to the farm system is that average free agent players will find that their market is much smaller than it used to be.

What do you guys think?

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Ethier

I do not think Ethier will get a one year deal upon free agency. Let’s remember he is still only 26 years old and has over an 800 ops. When he reaches free agency he will be 32-33 years old. I don’t think I would put him in the category of “middle class” at that point.I can see Ethier becoming a huge commodity because of the market. Last years free agent class featured older—post prime players, namely Shawn Green and Reggie Sanders. This is usually a pattern in free agency. You have the older players 35-38 who fetch 3-7 millioin a year for a short period of time. I think these are the guys you will see as your “middle class” FA. Now if you throw an Andre Ethier in that list, I’m sure you will find due to supply and demand, a rise in salary much like Carlos Silva. Therefore, I see Ethier fetching Aaron Rowand type money.

by asyouwish33 on Jul 15, 2008 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I didn't answer your question though...

I think clubs try focus on their minor league system, but at times attempt to do a quick fix. Free Agents are investments that many clubs feel are more valuable at that moment than say a prospect that needs grooming. The big question is how long can you wait? Is it the prospects job to lose? For example, where would the cubs be right now if they signed a quality center fielder instead of letting Pie start the year? What happens if they sign a big name free agent instead of picking center fielders off of waivers? Again, I think it all comes down to the market. The younger, quality players are picked off immediately for loads of money because they have a history of performing well in the majors, which is much more enticing than a prospect who may or may not perform.

by asyouwish33 on Jul 15, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ethier

I agree with the origional poster that Ethier is a guy who could find himself in a sticky situation, through no fault of his own. He’s shown himself to be an above-average OF but he’s also in/entering his prime years. By the time he’s 32-33, he’s likely be around average. With the way that teams are trendings towards giving their min. salary kids a chance over a high priced free agent who would likely produce the same stats, Ethier might have a hard time finding a job. It does seem that usually one or two teams are so desperate for average talent, due to either a barren minor league system or an inpatient owner (see houston), so maybe he can land a 3-4 year deal with a team like that.
But I think this does raise an interesting question. In effect the original poster was suggesting that this trend might start squeezing the baseball “middle class” with only a select few players truly reaping the monetary benifits. I’m very interested to see what happens.

by joltinjoe on Jul 15, 2008 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Define prime years...

I think with the influx of young talented players, the understanding of prime has greatly diminished. I understood there to be the great 27 break out year, but a players prime usually extends to about 34 or 35. Players such as Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard, Carlos Beltran still have about 3 years in their prime I believe. I am not comparing Ethier to these players of course, but I do believe that he will only get better as his playing time increases and he gains more experience.

With that being said, I do agree that free agency goes through this cycle, but every year there will be one player who will get a grossly abundant contract, just because it always happens.

by asyouwish33 on Jul 15, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not taking the idea far enough

Eventually, yes, free agent prices will likely come down as teams realize that for the average player, the investment simply isn’t worth it. Of course, when that happens, the price comes down and the investment becomes worthy again. Like any free market, it is self-regulating. If players are getting way too much money, eventually owners and GMs will realize this and prices will come down. As they come down, the market again becomes more competitive, driving up prices (for all, including the “middle class”. Rinse and repeat. Ethier will be quite fine.

by yellomellojello on Jul 15, 2008 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

RE: "I think prospects are largely overvalued, but I can understand why."

I tend to come down on the opposite side of this debate, and for the reason you mentioned: the insane contracts handed out to middle-of-the-road players.

I think the market for such players WILL come down eventually, if only because Bill Bavasi is now out of a job. But while the dollars involved have gotten truly insane, teams always overvalue what they feel is ‘steady’ production from unspectacular veterans. Given the CBA, these guys will always be overvalued. You don’t even have to get into the fact that this legendary ‘stability’ doesn’t actually exist, and vets are statistically no more likely to maintain their production than prospects.

Taking salary into account, ‘prospects’ are pretty much always much more cost effective. Forget the much-hyped Longorias and Tulowitzkis of the baseball world – unheralded guys who come up and put up lower-than-average but better-than-replacement seasons have incredible value. For all the talk of how many prospects flame out and become ‘busts’ there’s little acknowledgment of just how many young players add value to their teams. Hey, that’s the CBA baseball developed for itself.

I know teams know this at some level, but average players have always garnered decent deals in FA, and they always will. As for Ethier, if he keeps up his current level of performance (that is, even if he doesn’t improve from age 27-31), he’ll get a contract roughly on par with Eric Byrnes’ deal. 3 years, between $8-11m per.

by marc w on Jul 15, 2008 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Forget the much-hyped Longorias and Tulowitzkis of the baseball world – unheralded guys who come up and put up lower-than-average but better-than-replacement seasons have incredible value.

You just made Jack Hannahan’s day. Heck, you might have just made Jack Hannahan’s year.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 15, 2008 7:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, that's exactly the type of player I'm thinking of

Greg Smith is another. Regress the hell out of his stats, and he’s giving you better production per dollar than a million Silvas, Washburns, Marquis’, Vazquezs, etc. The A’s are incredibly adept at this, though I suppose they have to be.

by marc w on Jul 15, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs