Buster Posey = ?

i'm not gonna lie

i’m hoping for a san francisco version of pudge

LiNcEcuM and cAiN R STUDS

by z4 landshark on Jun 7, 2008 12:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Scouting reports and Projections...

.280+ hitter 15HR-20HR solid to GG caliber defense should be avg seasons. Could be consistently above that or just a couple of breakout seasons. He’s not as gifted of a hitter that Wieters is or even close to his power but at that position those numbers would put him near the top 5 catchers in the MLB.

by AthleticsReign on Jun 7, 2008 12:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wait just one minute

Despite being tied for the NCAA lead in HR’s, I can understand the projections of 15-20 HR’s because he has not hit for power like this in the past.

But the .280 projections are a little low for me. He is batting over .450!! Thats off the charts.
and in his sophmore season he batted .380 which is higher than Smoak hit last year (.315) or Yonder Alonso (.374) and yet both of those hitters are being projected for averages over .300 even though all three players have remarkably similar K rates

waiting for 2011....

by Osama91w9 on Jun 8, 2008 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

okay minutes up

Just because you tear up inferior NCAA pitching doesn’t project you to be a stud(thats not to say you can’t be). These are all scouts projections and you guys are getting all twisted over this. Let me provide an example for you. In 2002 this player led the nation in BA at .495 and in 2003 he also led the nation with a .479 BA. Heres a hint he was selected #2 in the draft. Can you guess who this future major leaguer is and tell me his highest batting avg to date while in the majors?

by AthleticsReign on Jun 8, 2008 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Weeks

To be fair Rickie Weeks has been hampered by wrist injuries throughout his short career. That surely negatively impacted his batting average. He hit .279 as a 23 year old which is very good and it is possible that he still may improve on his batting average considering he is only 25 years old. Writing a guy off as a poor average hitter when he is only 25 doesn’t seem to make much sense.

I agree with your assesment that tearing up NCAA pitching is not nearly as important as people make it out to be however, I would use a different example to prove your point next time.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 8, 2008 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not writing him off

I think he’ll still be a good MLB player. He still might have seasons that he bats .330+ but thus far injuries or not he has not met expectaions. But you get where I was going I just didn’t want to do the research to find another player cause his were the most staggering.

by AthleticsReign on Jun 8, 2008 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Check out Pat Burrell’s college numbers and check out his major league BA.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 9, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Posada

I see him as similar to Posada. Not as good, but still a very good hitter for a catcher. He’ll hit around .280, maybe up to .300 for a year or two in his prime. I see 15 to 20 homers a year, maybe a few more in his prime.

So less power than Posada, maybe a little higher average

by supermets on Jun 7, 2008 12:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

FYI

Posada was selected by Sabean when he was the Yankee’s draft director.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 9, 2008 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why the HELL ...

Would a guy who’s hitting .477 in the ACC be a .280 hitter??? Also, why would he hit quite a few homers than Wieters if he didnt have as good of power.

The consensus is selling him WAY short on here.

Try Craig Biggio if he stayed at Catcher and could actually play the position maybe…with more pop.

Pudge is a pretty good comp for his average and pop,,,but Posey will take a walk.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 1:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

um

since when do ACC stats translate like that?

Seriously… this is an idiotic game you’re playing.

The fact that Posey is having one of the best college catcher seasons in sometime is very notable but that doesn’t mean he is destined to be a star.

.477 for one year in the ACC doesn’t make you a future batting champ and one player hitting more HRs one year in college than another does not mean he has more power.

Surely you have to know this. You can not seriously be thinking the college stats are theonly thing

by nms on Jun 7, 2008 4:54 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Surely I do

I also think he has just as much power as Wieters and he’ll be more than a .280 hitter in the big leagues. That is ALSO a defensable opinion my friend.

I think his season means he is destined to be a star, I’m sorry.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Casejud....

You seem like a fairly knowledgeable guy, so why do you consistently state your opinion as fact, and all other opinions as foolish? You must understand that even the most educated guesses are only right some of the time when it comes to prospects, right?

by my dixie wrecked on Jun 7, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What?

I said it was a defensable position not a fact.

it is MY opinion that is shot down when it doesnt conform to the commonly bad “scouting consensus” thats all.

My “thesis” as it were, on here is that everybody is wrong or right about everything to a certain degree. Just because of this doen’t make it “guessing” ...it’s a science and an art man. there is a lot of study that goes into it and to a deghree, the more knowledgable you get…is quite predictable.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you understand the difference

between aluminum bats and wood bats? Also, do you not find it odd at all that this season stands far, far, FAR above what he has done his previous two years at FSU and his two years at the Cape?

by deezle on Jun 7, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not odd at all...

He knew he could get RICH with a big year so he worked hard :-) Made himself a LOT better player too. It happens every year with 21 year old ballplayers.

What do you mean by odd exactly? He was lucky to hit .464 with 25 homers and 2 times as many walks as k’s and great defense? He cheated? What?

Also a rukle of thumb…if a player from sage say, 18 -22 shows a large improvement in a season it is usually more meaningfull than all the seasons before. It isn’t the same as a guy having a career year at 27-28.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I heard...

a 7-hitter in a line-up. So take that as you will.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jun 7, 2008 1:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe in the yankees lineup...

thats about it. He is not gouing to be a 7 hole hitter so find who said that and give em a slap for me okay?

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those numbers aren't selling anyone short

For a catcher providing more than solid defense I think any team would take that. Don’t make it seem like he is a .320 hitter that can get 30+HR a season. The consensus scouting reports(which aren’t always right) even say if he stayed at SS he would still be at least the 3rd best SS behind the two Beckhams. Just because hes tearing it up with a metal bat doesn’t mean his numbers are going to project in the majors. Who knows maybe he can be the next Mike Piazza then again he could be the next BJ Surhoff.

by AthleticsReign on Jun 7, 2008 1:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What?

That post was a mess pal. It’s selling him short if he is going to be a LOT better player than that. Uh, I don’t have to tell you that Gordon Beckham used a metal bat as well and didn’t hit better than Posey do I?

Since you say “who knows?”...let me give you some insight…he ain’t gonna hit like Piazza… and he’ll hit better than Surhoff.

You know who Posey kinda reminds me of? Cal Ripken

Call me crazy ;-)

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay

If he reminds you of Ripkin you are crazy….....very very crazy. What makes you so sure he will hit better than Surhoff in his prime? In his prime years Surhoff was hitting .290 with 20+ homers. Personally from all reports I have seen, Posey projects to hit .280 with 10-15 homers. That won’t be helped by playing in SF either. He is will be a good catcher but not a great one.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 7, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Russell Martin would be a good comp

good with the bat and behind the plate

by nyy601 on Jun 7, 2008 2:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And you are overrating him

He isnt in the same league as Wieters as far as talent goes. Dont tell me what his average was in college, that is meaningless. He is what he is, a good player with limited upside but advanced and likely to maximize his potential. He is not the cornerstone of a franchise.

by bravitos5122 on Jun 7, 2008 3:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Scouts are unanimous that Wieters is a better pro prospect than Posey, no matter what line Posey puts up this year.

by deezle on Jun 7, 2008 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, but it must be said...

F* scouts man! I wan’t to hear YOUR opinion! I do not give one shit what “scouts say”! I have read so many truly stupid, wrong things over the years that were attributed to scouts. I can judge players for myself.

ieters is great but I am more likely to look at the FACT that Wieters hit 10 bombs as a Junior and Posey has hit 25.

Where exactly is the metal bat excuse here? It just works whenever you need to justify something eh? When it doesnt fit…leave it out?

Seriously though, I appologize :-) I LOVE scouts! I am one myself but, I hate it when people say something like “scouts are unanimous”. I doubt they are.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Enough w/ the college stats

Any dumbass can look up a player’s stats in college – that takes zero skill. In addition, it has been shown countless times that great college stats don’t automatically equal great professional stats.

Who gives a sh#t if a player mashes Sunday pitchers with an aluminum bat - nothing about that transfers to pro ball.  What you should be looking at is bat speed, pitch recognition, power potential.

I bet you thought Khalil Greene and Chris Burke were future HOF players, huh?

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jun 7, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still dont get it...

Wieters played with a metal bat and so did Beckham. So only guys who do WELL with metal bats are bad?

I did think Burke would be better than he has been. He hit decently in the minors and when he first got called up. didn’t see that one coming like you did apparently :-)

I won’t even discuss Greene because the park he plays half his games in totally scews any cvonversation about him. For instance last year his season in a neautral park would have been something like .285 32-114 from an outsanding SS. Greene wass a hell of a player last year.

I do believe some allowance can be made for SENIORS (Green’s bug season was his Senior one) playing against guys younger than them by a crucial year in development at that age

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Posey’s swing is special, in that it is unique how hard he swings, like he’s chopping down an oak tree. Almost anyone can swing that hard, but to do so and be able to consistently square the ball makes for a pretty special hitter. In this respect, he reminds me of Gary Carter.

However, it occurs to me that Posey may be destined to play right field. The Giants have struggled to find a long term solution for the demands of the position at AT&T Park. Anyone who has shown the defensive ability has not been up to par with the bat. Randy Winn has seen the longest run of success, and he is a great fit with the current team. Traditionally though, a right fielder needs more power to balance a lineup that is serious about contending. Posey strikes me as the only college player in the draft with the versatility, athleticism, arm, and bat to project as a right fielder in SF. Mind you, this is just my crazy theory. I haven’t heard anything rumorish to this effect.

by StickRat on Jun 7, 2008 4:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nothing is a given...

but I think the Giants feel they have found their future right fielder in Roger Keischnick. He will have to tighten up his swing mechanics a bit but he certainly has the speed and arm to handle RF. He was projected to be a 1st round talent before the season but a somewhat disappointing year caused his stock to drop a bit. Analysts think the Giants may have gotten a steal in the 3rd round. BA had him rated the 44th best prospect pre-draft and the Giants nabbed him with the 87th pick.

In the long run, however, you may be correct about Posey needing to change positions. But it may not be to fill a need elsewhere so much as the fact that the rigors of the catching position take their wear and tear on a player. If Posey turns out to be a very productive bat, I could imagine the Giants moving him off catcher to protect his health and prolong his productivity.

I could see him having a Biggio-like career, with a better average and less speed. As to where he might be moved if that is what the future holds… it is well documented that he started as a shortstop so middle infield is a possibility, but I think as he ages 3B may be a more likely destination.

by baseballjunkie on Jun 7, 2008 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps, but Kieschnick has seen dramatic drops in his batting average from year-to-year in both high school and college, corresponding with increases in power. After a big sophomore season, he hit .319 his senior year at Rockwell High, and just .284 as a junior. Until he proves otherwise, I think he profiles as an average ML outfielder at best. And I stress AT BEST.

by StickRat on Jun 7, 2008 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Side question

Does he happen to be related to Brooks Kieschnick? (How common of a name can Kieschnick be?) Baseballreference doesn’t know, but apparently Brooks is from Texas and Roger went to Texas Tech. And yes, I realize that doesn’t mean anything for about a dozen reasons, but still

by OldProspects on Jun 7, 2008 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i remember hearing that the connection was fairly thin

Third cousins or something distant like that, which surprised me for the reasons you mentioned. I was thinking first cousins or nephew or something like that

by nms on Jun 8, 2008 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

are you serious?

90% of his value comes from the fact that he can play a valuable position and play it well. He is projected as a possible gold glove winner. Not to mention the fact that outfielders are the one position that the giants have excess of in the upper minors. How about shierholtz, EME, bowker, lewis, ortmeier, etc. Seriously if he does bat .300 with 15 hrs, that would be good for a catcher but nothing special for an OF. Not to mention he has aver to below average speed. I would have to agree with you, this is just your crazy theory, nothing more.

by zeisenbe on Jun 8, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Poesy has a Gold Glove arm, but at this point he’s far from an elite defensive catcher. And it hasn’t yet been determined if he will stay at the position.

But look, all I’m saying is that to be a competitive team in this era, a team need have outfielders that excel both sides of the ball. And in SF, that is a monumental order in right field. Even with Reggie Sanders and Jose Cruz, the Giants had power at two non-power positions in Aurilia, Kent, and Durham. I doubt we will see that kind of power at those positions in the next five years, making right field that much more of a premium offensive postion. None of the guys you have listed impress me as being able to excel there. Schierholtz, maybe, but will he supply power? Bowker, ultimately a utility player. Ortmeier has already been relegated to one. Esteve and Lewis don’t have the range defensively. The Giants don’t have a Justin Upton or a Brad Hawpe in the system, and need someone to compete with that caliber of athleticism to play RF if they want to compete for the division. I’m not saying that it’s going to be Posey. However, yes, I am serious. I think he has that kind of athleticism both sides of the ball.

by StickRat on Jun 9, 2008 7:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

casejud are you serious?

you never cease to amaze. EVERYONE knows college stats matter very little. you have to go by projection. since none of us are scouts, i will go with what the obvious consensus is.

by jsmall404 on Jun 7, 2008 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

WRONG!

MANY of us are scouts and our consensus and sometimes, individual opinions are just as good or better than the professionals at times.

College stats matter a whole lot if they are properly examined. Sure it comes down to projection but performance counts too dude.

Thats probably why Buster Posey went 5th out of thousands of players and Yonder Alonso went 7th. They are outstanding players with a ton of upside.

Another qustion to you and others out there. Why is power POTENTIAL mentioned forfemost and sometimes only when evaluating these guys? So Witers may hit 27 homers and Posey may hit 17 in most years or Smoak MAY hit 35 and Alonso 27…there are other elements to the game right?

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question

Who do you scout for Case Jud?

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 7, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I scout for...

...my fantasy team, The Las Cruces Conquistadors, in my league called BUNT.

Check us out at BUNTontheweb.com if you’d like

The last couple years i have drafted “obscure” talents like Tim Lincecum… (9 dumbasses passed on him!! Thats should tell you all you need to know about professional decision making)...Micah Owings, Iwamura, Matt LaPorta, Jed Lowrie and Matt Wieters.

I ain’t perfect but, I’m pretty confident in being able to spot a big leaguer.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

No offense but that isn’t considered being a scout. A scout is employed by an organization, you are not. By the way, Lincecum wasn’t an obscure talent, he was drafted 10th overall. An obscure talent would be someone like Piazza or Orlando Hudson who were taken extremely late.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 7, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

Scouts receive professional training and often go to Scout School. I have been following minor league baseball for over 20 years but do not profess to have the same inside knowledge as those who scout these players daily.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 7, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You should

Most of them do not go to any “school”. They have watched and played baseball all thier lives, like me and you.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"obscure" is in quotations...

... dude. He was obscure enough to go 10th when he should have gone 1st….he went 23rd in our draft. As far as late picks I took owings and iwamura as 9th rounders and Lowrie in the 8th though he isnt a star yet…WQieters in the 10th last year and Alonso in the 10th this year.

I still spend a lot of my free time scouting players as seriously as anybody does and i dont

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

your fantasy team....

That team is the proof of your greatness?! You talk a biiiig game casejud. I’ve officially stopped listening.

by my dixie wrecked on Jun 7, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who said anything about greatness?...

I just said i look at baseball players all the time, thats all. If thats the case then you shouldnt listen to ANYBODY on here man.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wait

Casejud, it’s fun to bounce ideas and opinions off people that follow baseball as closely as we all do. However, you have a cocksure attitude about your opinions and ridicule others regularly and very casually. You act like you’re the voice of God. I just think it’s even easier to take what you say with a few grains of salt after seeing your team. No big deal. Still, you really should lose your tone of superiority. It’s abrasive.

by my dixie wrecked on Jun 7, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What?

I may be a little arrogant at times but I don’t ridicdule anybody man. I am usually pretty complimentary. People just get a little hot on here when you disagree with the common opinion on here. It is really Wieters-Love that is a little sacred on here right now. Shoot, I loved him too once. I drafted him in round #10 in 2007 and dealt him for a #2 this year. i’m sorry I’m abrasive dude.

You don’t like my team?? LOL. Why not? I can explain. I draft great young players and deal them for current, productive ones. As good as our veteran club is (96-66 last year, 39-21 this year) we would be looking at a great team if i had hung onto some guys…I dont even want to list them… but I like to build the owner a winner and I dont believe in rebuilding. I’m still learning though. It’s only my second year.

by casejud on Jun 10, 2008 4:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Las Cruces?

Is that just a random name, or do you have a reason for picking that name? Just curious because I was raised most of my life in Las Cruces.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jun 7, 2008 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was a great punch line

in the TV series, Wings. That was a good show.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 9, 2008 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

The owner of the franchise lives in Las Cruces. He’s a meterologist and a really nice guy. I’m his GM. I live in Seattle

by casejud on Jun 10, 2008 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You guys know that

Biggio is a HOFer, and one of the best offensive 2bs ever.
Posey is a great player, and maybe a college baseball HOFer, but there is an ENORMOUS gap between where he (or any draftee) is now and what Craig Biggio has done.

by nms on Jun 7, 2008 12:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sure

Of course, but some draftees turn into Hall Of Famer’s. Biggio was a special player… I realkly realize that but, he also was more special because of his LONGEVITY. So projecting someone to PLAY like him isn’t really all that out of line. I really think Posey is that good for one. I’m not saying his college stats “translate” into anything. What I am saying is that the idea being flaoted around that he lacks upside or something is wrong. Way wrong.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think anyones saying...

He lacks upside. Its that on normal years the standard .280+ 15-20HR is probably what to expect. Is it saying he isn’t going to have years that could be considered All Star calibur years? No, but to lay that kind of expectation on him when he hasn’t proven anything yet its just unrealistic. He isn’t quite the physical specimen and his offensive projections are inferior to Maurer, Wieters, Martin, Clement and McCann. His defense is probably better than everyone except Mauer. Does that mean hes going to have a worse career or put up worse #’s? No, because no one can predict how well he will actually do. Its great that you have these huge expectaions for him just don’t get disappointed if he can’t achieve those lofty #’s.

Btw for an example the A’s took Jemile Weeks. Do I think he will project past the .275 8-12HR 30SB leadoff hitter that the A’s have been looking for all these years? Yes I hope he can be the next Jimmy Rollins but the likelyhood of that is slim.

by AthleticsReign on Jun 7, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are a pessimist

Every year guys who become stars are drafted in the firtst round..and many become as good as Wieters, Martin, Clement, McCann (okay, Mayer IS rare ) or Jimmy Rollins. Poey will be about as big of a star as any of those guys regardless of what “expectations” I may be placing on him. I think you are right-on on the Weeks projection. I just call ‘em like i see em.

Posey’s power is as good as any of those guys man. Startconsidering that dude okay?

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would say I'm a realist

You do realize comparing Wieters and Posey is just silly at least on the offensive side don’t you? Wieters is a beast hes like 6’5” tall 230-235lbs and a switch hitter. Posey is 6’1” 205 right handed batter(great for that ballpark). Now physical stature isn’t everything but I’ll take genetic freak everytime over the standard build if everything else is equal. FYI Posey if he stayed at SS would have been the 3rd SS taken behind the two Beckhams. That should tell you something about his offensive value especially when you consider that the two Beckhams don’t project to be over 20-25HR hitters a year.

by AthleticsReign on Jun 7, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess...

...i must be a great power prospect because I am 6-1 215 lbs.

Dude, do you have any LOGICAL explanation for why Posey had better power numbers acrosss the board in thier respective Junior season?

Anything other than…College stats are meaningless or what exactly?

And posey WOULD have gone after G. Beckham? But he DIDNT go after him. This sort of logic is giving me a headache.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay let me explain

Scouting has a lot to do about projection not just actual #’s. You don’t seem to have a grasp on this quite yet. You are putting too much value in a college season…They are using metal bats! DO you understand Metal bats give players a significant advantage and more room for error? You need to stop comparing their junior seasons. College stats are not meaningless. Its just a proving ground that is below Low A ball as competition goes. You do realize the value behind Posey is his ability to stay behind the plate right? If I moved Wieters to another position he would not lose significant value because he has such a tremendous upside. Same thing can’t be said for Posey. If you cannot understand this then I think the national foundation for down syndrome has just found its new spokes person.

I said Posey would have gone after Beckham if he remained a SS. So does BA.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2008/266078.html

by AthleticsReign on Jun 7, 2008 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Down's syndrome

Wieters must have used a wood bat his junior year at G-Tech…my bad…sorry.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh...

Thats not how you spell spokesperson dude.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm..

I don’t suppose it bothers you that in the same comment it says that Posey is the frontrunner to go #1 overall…he wasn’t…inaccurate info…so that meens that they dont know which order the SS’s would go either OR how good they would be.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its pretty funny....

When the only thing you can come back with is that my grammer is off. It just makes you look like an ass cause thats the only thing you can cling on to. This is an internet posting board thats like correcting someone mid sentence because they are using slang.

You seem to like to pick your phrases out of articles. Yes hes was frontrunner to go #1 overall BECAUSE he plays catcher. Can you you answer this one question. If Posey was a 1st baseman do you think he would be drafted ahead of Hosmer, Smoak, or Alonzo?

by AthleticsReign on Jun 7, 2008 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BTW...

Make sure your posts are fully proofread before you point out others mistakes.

by AthleticsReign on Jun 7, 2008 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its ok

Spelling aint that important to me. My spelling isnt at issue because i wasnt calling YOU retarded.

Answer to your question: No, I dont. Of course Cal Ripken didn’t hit enough in most seasons to be a good 1st baseman… niether is Russell Martin.

by casejud on Jun 8, 2008 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wieters is just that much better

He is bigger, stronger, and better in almost every facet. Wieters numbers in AAA are far more impressive than what Posey has ever done. You aske for opinions, we are giving you them. Poser is a good player. Wieters is gonna be a great one.

by bravitos5122 on Jun 7, 2008 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1/2

I agree with your assesment of Weiters being better in almost every facet. However, you are wrong when you state that his numbers in AAA are very impressive considering the fact that he is currently only in High A.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 7, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The talent in high A is also better than that of Div 1 College ball...

Wieter’s is a physical monster who might be able to put a Piazza like show in the batter’s box and play some very solid defense. As for Posey, I like him as a player, but I don’t see him hitting any higher than 6th in the Giants lineup of the future. To me, he doesn’t compare to Martin (speed/power/very solid defense for converting late from 3B) or Biggio or Posada for that matter. I think he’s capable of hitting 10-18 homers and have a career year at 25-27 homers. I also don’t think he’s going to hit above .290 in any season (unless it’s a September call up situation or an injury fill in situation). I see him hitting in the .260-.275 range, anything .280+ is probably a career year.

As for Casejud drafting Lincecum, he was considered a work horse potential Ace in college. Everyone knew about him. It didn’t take a genius to draft him it took luck for him to make it to you. I’m sure in fantasy baseball every manager drafts based upon need, other’s draft based upon best player available. In your case, I believe he luckily fell to you, and you got excited because like everyone else, we were all intrigued by the rubber armed kid who threw a ton of innings at UW with a ton of k’s.

Drafting is a crap shoot. It’s very seldom you can draft a player and call him a superstar immediately. Injuries, player development, and coaching or organizational direction can effect players’ growth. While Posey may have had a great college season (Robin Ventura comes to mind), he might not become anything more than average in the MLB.

I believe that is what everyone is trying to explain to you.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Jun 7, 2008 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What?

I don’t anything EXPLAINED to me for one. Drafting is NOT a crap shoot. If it was we wouldn’t need to have this conversation. There are some elements that make it tricky, but a crapshoot implies complete randomness..which this isn’t.

In the case of Lincecum what happened in my league AND the major l;eagues was that he was evaluated improperly. He may have been known about but he wasn’t PICKED…which is even more puzzling. Kinda makes you feel smart when you can see a guy who should have OBVIOULY been the #1 pick fall to 10 and to #23 in my league.

I fail to see how an outstanding big leaguer like Robin Ventura helps make your point.

In my league there is some drafting for need but garza was taken #1 and Andrew Miller was taken in the top ten… they are not as good as Lincecum and those picks were mistakes.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hindsight is 20/20

Its very easy to be sitting where you are now and say what your saying. Show me a post from 2 years ago that has you giving material evidence as to why Lincecum was going to dominate the league. Just because your in a league with people that don’t know what they are doing doesn’t make you smart. Thats like saying your the smartest retard.

by AthleticsReign on Jun 7, 2008 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

That is pretty funny. I agree that it is funny that Case Jud is proud of his ability to “discover” Lincecum with the 23rd pick in his draft when he was taken 10th overall in real baseball. It would be different if he made a play like the Twins did last year when they went off the board to grab Ben Revere and were criticized for it. Taking a guy 13 spots after he was taken is not good scouting, it is just plain common sense.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 7, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay true enough

Wasn’t really my point though. I have made better picks. point is that Timmy’s talent was OBVIOUS and he was passed by 9 teams. Thats why I dont care what “scouts think” or what “all the scouts agree on”

Fact is that if I was drafting for the mariners in 2006 they would have had themselves a great starting pitcher.

by casejud on Jun 8, 2008 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not a Fantasy

Since I don’t play fantasy outside my own bedroom (except when I go outdoors, of course), I didn’t get the chance to draft Tim Lincecum. Two winters ago I did do two things, though.

First, I lobbied John to make Tim his #1 pitching prospect, ahead of Phil Hughes and Homer Bailey. Had he done so, he would look even smarter than he already does (which is pretty darn good!).

Second, on a Giants’ message board I said that while it would be far more prudent to sandbag, I needed to go with my head and my heart, which is why I predicted Tim would become the best pitcher in SF Giants history.

Incidentally, I believe when Tim was called up (I watched his debut start from boxes behind home plate.) I had seen more of his minor league career live than anyone in the world aside from Tim himself. I didn’t see all his games, but I saw all but his opening start in San Jose (couldn’t get out of a refereeing commitment on short notice), watched him pitch in Stockton (made those A’s guys look pretty feeble) and watched all but his Tacoma start for Fresno.

The most difficult was when I made the three-hour drive from the Bay Area only to have to drive three hours back when I found out upon arrival at the park that the game had been rained out 45 minutes before game time. (Beautiful day when I left the Bay Area, but I did get a little nervous when I encountered rain on the way down. No rain at game time, but the game had already been postponed.

by sharksrog on Jun 11, 2008 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

#2 Fan

to you buddy. I lib=ve in seattle and we went to see him like EVERY time we could his Junior year and I was frankly ASTONISHED..thats the only word i can think of…when the Mariners didn’t draft him and took another kid from the Pac-Ten (Brandon Morrow) ... I also got to see him opitch in the minors in his last or second to last start at AAA at Tacoma… he was amazing! More guys with radar guns in attendance than regular fans and the smack of his pitches was loud…he breezed through 7 innings…Tacoma ralllied to win off Fresno relievers in the 9th but I went for the Timmy show.

by casejud on Jun 11, 2008 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Tacoma Start

I was in Tacoma a couple of times over the winter. The ballpark looked nice from the outside.

I listened to the game you mentioned. I believe it was his second-to last start, although it also might have been his middle start among the five he made for Fresno. I saw the other four, so between us we saw them all.

Did you get to meet his dad at that game? Chris was there, naturally. For you, the Mariners and Tim’s dad, I feel sorry the Mariners didn’t draft Tim (although Brandon Morrow actually beat Tim to the bigs and I see has a 1.00 ERA as a reliever this year). But as a Giants fan, I’m really glad it worked out the way it did.

If you don’t mind, please e-mail me with your impressions of Tim. Sharksrog@aol.com. Thanks.

by sharksrog on Jun 16, 2008 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Join

and see how good you do. There are some pretty sharp cats in our league man.

by casejud on Jun 8, 2008 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Problem with your logic

I have nothing against you but someone needs to make this clear to you: Lincecum was pretty much considered the #1 talent in the draft. However, because of his different throwing motion, high pitch counts, and slight stature (most were generously saying he was 6’ when he was drafted but I’ve seen quotes of as low as 5’9” since then), plus a kind of an odd-ball personality, teams were scared away from him, they basically loved his arm but didn’t think he would last physically long-term as a starter, and many thought he would be better off closing as a result, and you don’t draft a closer that high in the draft.

I feel the same way as you do about the stats, so I totally understand your stance, but from my understanding from people who know better, using aluminum bats is like, and I’m searching for the right analogy, fishing in a barrel, whereas hitting with a bat is much harder to accomplish. An aluminum bat is very forgiving, giving you a “sweet spot” almost anywhere on the bat, whereas when you use a wood bat, the sweet spot is literally a spot on the bat where you need to make contact. Lots of players don’t make the transition, they can never figure out how to hit with a wood bat. Thus why a lot of posters here says that you cannot just take the college stats at face value, it gives you an indication, but trained scouts should have the eye to compare the raw college players with players they have seen before and project what they are capable of.

But I agree with you to an extent. The scouts do miss often, whether drafting Piazza late in the draft (really, that was a favor to Tommy Lasorda) or Matt Bush first in the draft. But it is a crapshoot, less than half of the prospects drafted in the top 10 picks overall ever amount to a good starting player who make it to free agency, it gets way worse, way quickly, reaching 10% chance by the end of the first round, and around 1% chance by the third round.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 9, 2008 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Make that "hitting with a wood bat is much harder to accomplish"

Oopsy

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 9, 2008 2:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I gotcha

I see what you are saying but, at the same time i can see things for myself…such as that college baseball and metal bats is/are an ENNHANCEMENT to hitting but it still doesn’t MAKE a hitter and the logic being used (that I disagree with) is that Matt Wieters is some kind of super-power-hitting prospect when he ALSO USED A WOOD BAT AND DIDNT HIT FOR AS MUCH POWER AS POSEY… I just wanted to hear some LOGICAL reason for that besides Wieters having some MAGICAL ability to use wood bats that Posey doesnt…sorry, doesn’t fly for me. I guess we’ll see though huh?

As far as Lincecum. I understand the teams “reasoning” for not taking him but, the reasoning was FLAWED. These are organizations who ALL would have benifitted from taking him and having him on thier staff already. Its just one of a million-literally examples of experts making bad decisions. I still say the level of knowledge among the top level of FANS is just as high or higher than big league teams. There are some really bright people on here…and of course, some some others as well.

by casejud on Jun 10, 2008 3:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How is his power as goo as McCann's?

McCann is HUGE. He is gonna hit close to 30 homers this year, how many NL catchers do you see do that? Posey is not big, and does not have massive power. He is a smaller who projects to hit 15 homers and a lot of doubles. You have no basis for saying he will hit for as much power as any catcher. You can believe it if you want, its not gonna happen.

by bravitos5122 on Jun 7, 2008 6:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

15+

Homers than Wieters in the same league at the same age perhaps. I suppose that is at least a tenous basis.

I don’t believe I said he’ll hit for more power than ANY catcher though.

by casejud on Jun 7, 2008 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's a hitter who was 6'0", 180 pounds...

But I guess you think McCann is better because Hank Aaron is such a shrimp compared to him.

I’m not saying Posey will hit for McCann power, but size is not the sole determinant of power.

Adoptive parental unit of Kevin "Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 9, 2008 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you

Eric Davis says hi as well…so does Chase Utley

by casejud on Jun 10, 2008 3:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously you have a projection in mind

Why dont you give us what you predict his rookie season and Avg seasons will break down to? Give us Avg/OBP/SLG, HRs, and any other relevant stats you would like to provide. That way 3 years down the road you can refer to this when he does everything that you say.

by AthleticsReign on Jun 7, 2008 11:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ok

Maybe I’ll work on that one. Sounds fun.

by casejud on Jun 8, 2008 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just wondering

Is size the main reason people project so few homers out of him? Or is it the swing or what? Everyone says 10-15, maybe 20 homers at most. In the college season, he has obviously put up numbers that would indicate he has more power potential. Unless he hit a lot of cheap ones, I don’t see why he shouldn’t hit for more power.

Less arm, more talk. Raisingcain is a GAMER.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa

by raisingcain on Jun 8, 2008 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Both

It’s both both his size and swing, but I think the swing is more pertinent. A lot of people in the know say he has more of a line-drive swing which would result in gap power.

http://minorgiants.wordpress.com/
Where the relative merits of Joe Paterson and Daniel Otero are hashed out over knife fights and tea.

by RougeGorrila on Jun 8, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

REDICULOUS!

People can say what they wan’t about how Posey’s swing will translate to wood bats…or his size… but he does NOT have a line drive type swing. He swings HARD and his home runs generally travel LONG way. Nobody in the know would say that in my opinion, sorry.

by casejud on Jun 10, 2008 3:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Casejud

explain this for me.

If junior year college stats are all that matters why, so often, can you take two players at the same age and in the same league and find that the guy with the better stats then isn’t a super strong bet to be the best later.

you keep harping on Posey’s 15 more homers as a Jr than Weiters but what about all the ACC hitters John-Ford Griffen outhit and yet he has never done anything but some of those other ACC hitters are MLBers now.

What about the fact that when they were both juniors on the same team (playing in the same parks vs the same pitchers) AA washout Jeremy West had 7 more homers (in 60 fewer ABs) and 200 less points of OPS than future MLB starting OF Andre Ethier?

by nms on Jun 8, 2008 3:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good question

I don’t really recall saying that Junior Year Stats were all that matters, but I see what you are asking. I was really just asking for a good LOGICAL reason for saying that Wieters has or will have more power than Posey andf all I got was that Wieters was TALL :-) I thougt it weas kinda funny thats all.

I can’t explain EVERYTHING but I have yet to have anybody give me an explanation of the TYPE of swing or quality of a swing that won’t have sucess with wood bats. From my observation though guys who A) Hit the ball a LONG ways…like Posey and B) Work the count…like Posey and Wieters as well do pretty well.

I just think it is inverted logic to say that because Griffin or Chris Burke or Khalil Green (bad example anyways…not yours i know) struggled then Posey will. Guys who are good are still generally good.

I still thought it would be fun to answer your Ethier/West question anyways. I have no axe to grind. I just want to learn really and I had never heard of Jeremy West. You know WAY more about College Baseball than me but after looking at just the numbers and what I know about Ethier I would explain it like this

1) Ethier had more walks, was a CF (right?) with good speed and West looks like a slow footed 1b

2) In 2004 in the minors they were actually still fairly similar in abilty…AS HITTERS…but obvioulsy miles away as prospects for obcvious reasons. Ethier wouldn’t have been a b=very good prospect if he played 1b would he?

3) Even in 2005 the difference in thier abilities as hitters isnt that prounounced with Ethier breaking out in the Texas League and West doing okay in the Eastern…big difference in leagues.

In reality West could probably hit a little in the big leagues if given a chance. Not enough to be an above average 1b but maybe .260-.270 10 homers.

One thing we harly every mention here about College stats is that the sample size isnt really that big either. Some guys just have hot seasons. Believe me, I still prefer looking at the player himself…scouting… over stats. Its just that in the case of Posey and Alonso…another favorite… it sort of touched a nerve for me because there isnt any reasons I can see to not like EITHER of them..great performance… terricic skills… great insticts. I could be wrong but they look like great major leaguers too me.

by casejud on Jun 10, 2008 4:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

under the nose

all this arguing, and i believe the best comp for him is right on the giants right now…bengie molina….a high average hitter with decent power….possibly solid defense if he stays in shape….good years, a guy near the middle of the lineup….off years, still a solid 7 hitter….

by biggentleben on Jun 8, 2008 6:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Posey would hopefully have much better plate discipline than Bengie.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 9, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

eh

not really commenting on that….the comments on this threat were more along the lines of his average and power, not his eye….

by biggentleben on Jun 10, 2008 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

casejud - i think you are losing it

trying to say two players use aluminum bats so it’s no issue -> this is bad logic.

If you have a guy swinging out of his shoes AND using aluminum when he switches to wood there is a huge impact on the power output.

When you have an effortless swing with plenty of power the switch from aluminum isn’t that big of a deal.

I agree in not just accepting a scouts opinion of how a player will fare. I do think you should very very strongly listen to a scouts opinion on the good and bad of the player. ie bat speed, ability to hit breaking balls, discipline, etc.

You talk as if the scouts screwed up with Lincecum. That’s total bs ;). The scouts loved him. They just also had a high injury risk attached to him. The teams GM then decides if they want to take a risk.

by pedrophile on Jun 11, 2008 12:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

The scouts may have been wrong about Lincecum’s injury risk. Then again, he is only now just entering his second full season so perhaps we should wait awhile before declaring him a workhorse starter.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 11, 2008 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe

I believe the primary reason Tim Lincecum dropped to #10 in the draft was his size. There were also concerns about the effect of his unusual delivery on his arm and about the high number of pitches he had thrown collegiately.

It is my opinion that Tim’s delivery takes pressure OFF the arm and that he is a better-than-average risk against injury. I can’t say what the high number of pitches might have done to his arm, but nothing has shown up yet.

And I do know that pitch #146 and last of his two-hit, 18-strikeout shutout of UCLA was clocked at 95 mph. That doesn’t sound like a tired arm to me.

by sharksrog on Jun 11, 2008 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

it was his size.

they just haven’t seen anyone like Timmy. Not to be harsh on the scouts. Its just something new.

The injury risk IS there. Just not nearly as bad as many scouts predict.

by pedrophile on Jun 11, 2008 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No we shouldn't

He has yet to have a SORE ARM! Let alone an injury. A bunch of dumbass orginizations doing what dumbass orginizations do…make bad decisions. A cursorry glance at Lincecum pitching by a very modest baseball intellect would have made him an easy choice. Only the D-Rays can reasonably be excused for not taking him.

by casejud on Jun 11, 2008 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

YOU- Are losing it!

If Wieters has such an easy swing…is effortless…blah, blah, blah…he should have hit 35 homers at Georgia Tech WITH THE GADDAMNED METAL BAT! Sorry, I am losing it :)

by casejud on Jun 11, 2008 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no

how would you like a double order of no? lol

hitters can look to pull balls for hr’s. its normal.

I’m not sure if you remember Hanley back in AA. Everyone hacked him. On this site I was one of maybe two people saying he’d be just fine. He was killing the ball in AA but just was hitting warning track power. In a league where power was supressed. For a player not fully developed.

It was very obvious Hanley was going to break out. Just not to the crazy level he went to.

So I think the aluminum/wood thing is silly. It’s about scouting.

by pedrophile on Jun 11, 2008 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What?

I don’t even know what you are talking about man.

I thought we were talking about Matt Wieters and Buster Posey. I’m glad you were right about Hanley. I remeber feeling that he was still a sensational prospect at the time but it is still remarkable that he has really had ZERO struggles since joining the big leagues.

If you are tellling me that Posey swings harder and gets luckier than Wieters did and thats why he hit 25 dingers to Wieters 10 thier Junior seasons…uh okay. No sense arguiing with ya man. Personally I think that neitheer Wieters or posey are great power prospects and Posey could end up hitting more despite being smaller. Swinging hard is a good thing.

I’m really not saying that Posey will hit more homers than Wieters because he hit more in College. I’m saying that I DISAGREE with the scoutuing consensus that Wieters is a greater power prospect and the logic that Posey benifits from the metal bats while somehow Wieters didn’t is just remakably silly to me and has yet to even be attemted to be explained. I fulkly expect Posey to handle High-A equally as well as Wieters has.

by casejud on Jun 12, 2008 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do believe aluminum bats help some more than others

If someone hits the ball into the upper deck with aluminum then they still have no problem with wood.

But it sounds like Posey is swing hard with aluminum to get his HR’s. Watch Ellsbury hit his HR’s. The guy swings out of his shoes and really yanks the ball to get his hr. If a pitcher makes a bad mistake or he gets in a good count then he can look to do this. But in most situations if he attempts this then it will result in a lot of k’s and weakly hit balls. In Ellsbury’s case he is smart enough of a hitter to not try this.

That type of thing is why it sounds like Posey will be limited in his power potential. Of course I haven’t seen him, just going on what is said.

Also, the scouts try to look at body type, growth, etc. So maybe some of this factored in? I don’t know.

by pedrophile on Jun 12, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs