More Draft Thoughts
by John Sickels on Jun 6, 2008 11:27 AM EDT
25 comments
On the radio show today we have Jim Duquette in the first segment and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus in the second segment, obviously to talk about the draft.
Some thoughts....
Rumors in Kansas City strongly indicate that the Royals will do everything they can to sign Tim Melville. The Moore Administration is making a huge pitch for young high school pitching in this draft....they did the same thing last year....obviously trying to build on the Atlanta model of organization development. To sign both Hosmer AND Melville would be a huge coup.
Mets fifth round pick Dock Doyle, a catcher from Coastal Carolina, looks like a sleeper to me and was one of my favorite Shadow Draft candidates. I'm less impressed with Mets fourth round pick Sean Ratliff, out of Stanford. He's got great power but the extremely high strikeout rate worries me.
I like Michigan shortstop Jason Christian in the fifth round for Oakland. Nice choice. Another fifth round pick to watch is Mike Sheridan, William and Mary first baseman drafted by Tampa Bay.
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John or anybody esle, can you give me any more info in the Rangers 5th adn 6th round guys
than what is avaliable from BA/BP/Mlb.com etc…
Clark Murphy and Richard Bleier
by laxtonto on Jun 6, 2008 12:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Royals
Haven’t taken someone that can drink legally through round 14!
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Jun 6, 2008 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Royals
have had certainly had the best draft so far, and it really isn’t close.
by deezle on Jun 6, 2008 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If they sign everyone....Thats a big IF
by laxtonto on Jun 6, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Melville is really the only question mark
and from the newspaper article floating around the internet today, it seems like there is a very good chance he will sign.
by deezle on Jun 6, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ludicrous statement
it is one thing to talk about what drafts look good and bad to say any team has had the best one “and it isn’t really close” is a painfully boneheaded comment.
We have NO idea if that is at all the case at this point
by nms on Jun 7, 2008 4:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Considering there were only two outstanding pitchers in this year’s draft class, and the Royals drafted one of them, I’d say the statement has merit. Add to that, one of the two best high school hitters, and I’d say deezle certainly has a point.
I understand your point, that depth and time are the only true measures of the draft. People tend to get carried away with projections. I mean, project all you want, but anything can happen. Right? If you are keeping score of blue-chip prospects though, at this point I’d say KC has bragging rights with Melville and Hosmer, hands down.
by StickRat on Jun 7, 2008 5:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
only two outstanding pitchers
isn’t necessarily a true statement to begin with.
Not only is it uncertain even when there IS a consensus how many “outstanding” pitchers there are and who exactly they are but this year there isn’t even really a consensus.
Furthermore, consider who we base our idea of “consensus” off. BA, PG, BP, Law, others.
Not scouts, just people who talk to scouts and try to get a feel for what is happening. Even when they are doing a great job the nature of what they cover means that some things will be missed.
And even among scouts, I would guess, there isn’t a consensus as to how many “outstanding” HS arms there were and who exactly the outstanding ones were.
Some scouts, it seems, like Odorizzi the best. Some like Cole’s power arm. Others Melville. Others Martin, Hicks or Gose. Some liked Meyer or Gray but they were unsignable.
by nms on Jun 7, 2008 5:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are 100% right,
nms, and there really isn’t any need to argue it any further.
by DITO on Jun 7, 2008 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Law, Manuel, Gammons, etc. aren’t “just people who talk to scouts and ‘try’ to get a feel for what is happening”. They are respected journalists who have proven track records. Odorizzi is the only one who can touch Cole and Melville stockwise, and that is after taking signability and personality into account. Stuffwise, Melville and Cole are in a class by themselves, and would have been top 10 picks if not for signability or personality issues.
by StickRat on Jun 7, 2008 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"proven track records"
Somewhere I read that scouting is a 10% business. To be right TEN percent of the time is good. It’s the nature of the business, so I don’t mean to be critical of scouting/prospect experts. Their speculative words are intended to be taken with a grain of salt always.
Have you reviewed other drafts in the past ten years? Examine their track record in the 1998-2002 drafts. Did any of them say that Jeff Austin, the Pac-10 Conference All-Southern Pitcher of the Year, was one of only two outstanding college pitchers? Did they say that Sean Burroughs would develop power and become a future all-star third baseman in the majors? Were they among the many who claimed that Mark Prior would not have injury problems with his perfect mechanics?
Responsible scouts and analysts should discuss perceived strengths and weaknesses and avoid too many comparisons or definitive statements like “only two outstanding _s” since they are most often proven wrong, sometimes because nobody turns out to be outstanding.
by Stat Ninja on Jun 8, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn’t talking about scouts. Was talking about journalists. I have a pretty good idea of who to trust and who not to when it comes to prospect reports. John Manuel and BA had me convinced Prior was going to run into arm problems a year before he did. Burroughs was a victim of poor hometown public relations. Austin was one of many a Stanford arm who, considering the trend, predictably failed.
Melville is the most promising pitcher in the draft. That’s my stance, I’m sticking to it. I’ll take a guy who has been consistently great for years and is coming off a down year, over a guy like Odorizzi who has been consistently good and is coming off a great year. Cole’s pitchability is better than both Melville and Odorizzi, however his mechanics are a concern, and his immaturity has been well documented. On pure pitchability though, at this point, Cole has the best stuff of any prep pitcher in this year’s draft.
And, for the record, I have not made any projections. Don’t know how any of these guys will turn out. What I do know is that Melville fell because of something that happened behind the scenes. Most expected him to be the top drafted high-school pitcher. So yeah … outstanding. Cole is absolutely fierce on the mound. I’ll take his stuff over anyone’s in this years draft class, including Matusz. Many compare him to Phil Hughes. I say Kevin Brown. Either way … outstanding.
by StickRat on Jun 8, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fine....
best draft “on paper”. Obviously we have no idea what will happen, but that doesn’t mean no one can make immediate observations.
In all likelihood, KC probably won't have the best draft when looking at it five years from now, but as of today, they had the best draft in my book.by deezle on Jun 7, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
weird
Don’t know why it did that. My last sentence was:
In all likelihood, KC probably won’t have the best draft when looking at it five years from now; however, when analyzing it today based on the resources we have, they had the best draft in my book.
by deezle on Jun 7, 2008 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keith Landers
Just heard someone on the radio saying he mightpotentially have the best HS arm. I’ve never heard of him before, but that sounds promising for an 18th rounder, even if its only a remote possibility..
by ADLC on Jun 6, 2008 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He has a good arm...
Tall guy…lots of work to do though.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Jun 6, 2008 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dock Doyle
I agree. Four-tool catcher. Could be a steal for the Mets. Strange, he was like the fourth catcher taken overall … in the fifth round. Strange draft class this year. I took him in my shadow draft. Also took Vindette and Musgrave, who were on your draft board. Guess we’ll have to shoot darts for them. I also would have taken De La Osa, but I took him last year and he didn’t sign because he pitched a fit about going so late; I think it was the 10th round.
by StickRat on Jun 6, 2008 4:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Adrian Nieto
Found this interesting tidbit courtesy of Keith Law:
Washington selected high school catcher Adrian Nieto in the fifth round despite the fact that he was telling teams not to draft him. It sounds like Nieto had a deal in place with another club. The two sides are already worlds apart financially.
by mtk52983 on Jun 6, 2008 5:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Royals were rumored to be interested in him
Wonder why they passed.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jun 11, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a thought
MLB.com fails for letting me search by home state, but not telling me a player’s hometown. :/
"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)
by drjayphd on Jun 6, 2008 11:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pirates
I really like the Pirates draft. It was refreshing to see them take some chances and it will be interesting to see if they can sign some of the guys who fell to them because of “sognability” issues. I think the new regime there may actually be building something worthwhile.
by Robinson Checo on Jun 7, 2008 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Matt Clark?
Is Matt Clark the steal he appears to be in such a late round, or are the holes in his game going to turn him into an “okay” hitter with no real defensive position? Or worse, not even an “okay” hitter?
by BobbyMac on Jun 7, 2008 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A's had an interesting draft
took lots of athletes, signability guys etc
weeks- slight overdraft, but one of the top athletes and one of the few college middle infielders on the board. i think he wouldve gone soon after to cards at 13 or mets at 18. filled a need. could’ve gone w/ wallace, but they were probably convinced he wasnt a 3b long term
Paramore- C from ASU, i saw some mocks as high as late 1st/supp rd. defense mlb ready, switch hitter. they needed catching in the lower levels of the system. i guess solid value in rd 3
the college pitchers they took had great 07’s, but iffy 08’s Ross Cal/Hunter Pepperdine/Guilmet AZ. if healthy they were good value and probably some of the better trio of west coast SP’s at the college level
4th rd Capra, a lefty starter from Wichita State. puzzling pick since Gorgan was still on the board and went a pick later to STL. i’m surprised they took another lefty, maybe they move him to the BP who knows.
5th SS Christian Michigan tall, toolsy SS…dont know much but John thinks its a solid pick
6th House/10th Dixon are athletic Cf’s, tons of speed. Dixon has a football scholarship at Miss St. that will be a tough sign
Barfield is huge w/ plus plus power, but not much else…maybe he is similar to Chris Carter
Sp’s Fitts/Rusin were thought to go around the top 6 rounds, i guess solid value in the 16-20th rd range
day 2 A’s took alot of tough sign HS’s like Warren/Elgie/GOnzalez/Messer/Moronde.
i have doubts they can even sign one of those because they are one of those teams will not “insult” selig and go above slot.
overall solid, but could end up good if they get some tough signs…other than weeks and maybe ross, not really an fast track guys compared to 07 w/ Simmons/Doolittle/Carignan/Brown/Demel etc.
by Asfan4ever723 on Jun 7, 2008 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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