Mike Pelfrey Update

by John Sickels on Jun 27, 2008 3:26 PM EDT

Time for another look at Mike Pelfrey, who was supposed to be a big ace by now.

On the surface he's made progress this year. His breaking stuff appears a bit crisper, at least on TV, and there are rumors that the Mets are going to give him his curveball back. HIs ERA this year is 4.30, much better than the 5.57 mark he posted in '07. He continues to get plenty of ground balls, and in general Mets observers who have seen him much more than I have say he's made genuine strides improving his confidence in particular.

But on the other hand there are still some warning signs in the numbers. His K/BB ratio hasn't improved at all, a slight reduction in the walk rate being balanced by a slight reduction in strikeouts. Even the hit rate isn't much different, and a lot of the ERA difference could just be luck. He's doing great at home in Shea, 3.06 ERA with 32/18 K/BB in 50 innings. But he's been awful on the road, 6.25 ERA with 11/19 K/BB in 32 innings. Lefties are crushing him to a .350/.433/.524 tune, likely an indication that he still needs another weapon against them.

Since he is a Midwest guy and a Wichita State product, I am pre-disposed to like Mike Pelfrey. I think he was rushed to the majors, wasn't handled well, and is still suffering from that. I continue to root for him, but I have to admit that I am not convinced he has turned a corner, better scouting reports or not. The splits are full of red flags, and I suspect that unless those improve, his ERA is going to be rising as the summer progresses.

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nope

4 IP 8 H 4 R 3 BB 5 K’s today.

by Bravesin07 on Jun 27, 2008 4:07 PM EDT 0 recs

nope what?

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jun 27, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

I love how Bravesin07 comments on one day, it monotonous...

Then he doesn’t back up anything except for the stats for one day. That being said, I still think Pelfrey is destined for the bullpen. I believe he has more potential to not be completely exposed as he is in the starting rotation.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Jun 27, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Throw out the numbers

At this point Pelfrey is the perfect example of pitcher who you need to throw out the stats on and just watch him pitch. Pelfrey has made great strides this season and while he may not have already turned the corner he certainly looks to be on his way.

You look at his stats today and you dont see anything special, but you watch the game and compare it to how he looked in the past and you can tell the difference. For instance the Yankees had numerous opportunities with runners in scoring position (15 at-bats i believe) and Pelfrey limited the damage compared to say last year when he would have blown up, especially against an offense like the Yankees.

The 3 run third inning Pelfrey gave up today also consisted of a bloop single and an infield single. Not to mention the ball Arod hit that just got past Reyes. Other than the Jeter double to lead off that inning their really wasn’t any ball that they hit hard.

In my opinion if you are going to look at the stats on Pelfrey than you are not going to think he has turned any sort of corner. But if you were to watch his starts and compare them to the way he used to pitch you will see just how much he has evolved.

by Kazmir2657 on Jun 27, 2008 5:27 PM EDT 0 recs

That would assume...

that there is some kind of improvement that wouldn’t show up in stats. Improvement means throwing more strikes, getting balls hit on the ground, getting guys to swing and miss, etc. Any of these are going to show up in the results. Getting out of a jam in some particular situation doesn’t mean he’s improved at all as a pitcher.

How can you categorize something as an “improvement” if it doesn’t make him pitch any better?

by DrunkIrish on Jun 30, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Pelfrey's improvement

has been clear to anyone who has watched him over a period of time. Your right its difficult to say that someone has improved if the stats dont clearly show that, but theirs a reason why scouts and sabermatricians dont always agree on things.

Pelfrey’s getting out a jam in a certain situation (Subway series in a raucous Yankee Stadium) shows improvement in my opinion. The way Pelfrey used to pitch he would have melted down in that situation and gave up several runs, but he did what good pitchers do and limited the damage when he got in those situations. Pelfrey would have normally danced around the strike zone and pitched away from contact but instead he came right after guys and showed no fear. Like i said he hasnt turned the corner yet, but little things like this show that he is making adjustments to pitch better. ill admit, its hard to understand how hes improved when the stats dont clearly show it but its just a situation where you have to have seen the way he used to pitch vs the way he pitches now to understand..

by Kazmir2657 on Jun 30, 2008 9:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't mean to speak for Irish,

but I think what he’s trying to say is that if he really has improved, it would show up in his core numbers. But it hasn’t. Sure, he could have learned how to pitch smarter, and that’s something that’s difficult for stats to show, but of what he physically has control of as he pitches, he hasn’t shown much improvement. As well noted in this thread, he’s limiting less runners but he’s missing less bats and there has been pretty much no improvement on his ability to keep the ball on the ground.

You say he’s doing better with RISP, but he’s only been in that situation 89 times this year. With that insufficient sample size, luck can easily interfere. And his .270/ .351/ .393/ .745 line in those situations don’t suggest a ton of success either. Vastly better than last year’s 1.000+ OPS against, but nobody should be making any conclusions in those situations yet no matter what the numbers say.

by elrey34 on Jul 4, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Improvement

Mike Pelfrey’s last 7 starts:

4-0 (team=6-1) 44.2 IP 45 Hits 15 ER 19 BB 31 K’s 3.02 ERA .269 BA .341 SLG

Mike Pelfrey’s Previous 7 starts:

0-6 (team=0-7) 37 IP 53 H 27 ER 20 BB 16 K’s 6.57 ERA .353 BA .520 SLG

by Kazmir2657 on Jul 5, 2008 9:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

the stuff is there

and now he is battling better. He deals with adversity, but he is still creating adversity out the ying yang.

He struck out 2 to start the game, then the struggles began, and yeah, lefties and A-Rod got to him, and there were dribblers and bloops. But he clearly has great stuff, and pretty slight improvements in command and secondary pitches and he will be quite good, obviously.

But how about Jair Jurrjens? The anti-pelfrey (not really, but a Brave with less stuff doing much better? typical). And Campillo, Ohman, Boyer..I love how they work these guys in. And I’m a Mets fan!

by wobatus on Jun 27, 2008 9:42 PM EDT 0 recs

Nice start against St. Louis

7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Of his 109 pitches, 70 were strikes

by mtk52983 on Jul 3, 2008 10:48 PM EDT 0 recs

Pelfry Rides Again

Ever see that movie, Destry Rides Again? Jimmy Stewart, Marlene Dietrich.

Anyway, Pelfry went 7 innings tonight against the Giants, 3 hits, 0 0 0 5. Two of the hits never left the infield, he shattered a bat on one hit, lotsa first pitch strikes, throwing his curve at times to lefties.

OK, so it was the giants. And the bat he broke was Aurilia’s. But last week it was the Cards he mowed down.

by wobatus on Jul 8, 2008 9:19 PM EDT 0 recs

Pelfrey's development

Getting back to the basics of getting ahead on hitters has really helped Pelfrey. He is also nibbling at the corners much less than usual. Instead, he is relying on the natural movement of his pitches to keep hitters off balance. I also like the fact that he is going inside a lot more on hitters. One of the nice things about the way Pelfrey pitches is that while he can get first pitch strikes, it is on a pitch that is hard to drive so many hitters reluctantly take it even though they know it is coming

by mtk52983 on Jul 9, 2008 7:05 AM EDT up 0 recs

score one for the sabr dropouts

pelfrey went 860005 on national tv, against the rockies. He has been dominating weak nl offenses, rockies, giants…but he has come around, so the “scouts” got this one right when they saw some improvement in pelfrey belied by his early stats. What’s interesting is he has improved in the very areas the ratio obsessed want to see. K rate up, walk rate way down, his ability to prevent the long ball now standing out with the improved command. He may be a top 10 (at least in the nl) starter at the break. Although, of course, I don’t want to get carried away. Look at Billingsley’s start tonight. There are a lot of good young starters this year.

by wobatus on Jul 13, 2008 11:02 PM EDT 0 recs

piling on

As many have mentioned an interesting comp for Pelfrey seems to be Hochevar- a similar pitcher… what’s puzzling is why John see/saw signs of improvement in Hoch, but not Pelfrey

In the minors their k/9 and k/bb were virtually the same, they have been close in the majors too, but whereas Pelfrey’s recent pitching has been his best (both results and K/BB and k/9), Hoch seems to be regressing.

The BIG difference of course is their HR rates, through 377 MLB and minor league IP, Pelfrey has shown a knack fro keeping the ball in the yard (22), Hoch has not (37 in 292 ip).

Hoch can’t match Pelfrey in K/BB and K/9, he has to beat him- and there’s little to no evidence he can.

by jpwf13 on Jul 14, 2008 9:58 AM EDT 0 recs