Bruce vs Upton...
by JT12340 on Jun 24, 2008 9:28 PM EDT
99 comments
Who is the better prospect in terms of talent, development of skills, and in the long term scheme of things? This started out as a fantasy question, but now has developed into a full debate between myself and friends. I just wanted to get other people to weigh in on the discussion. To me, they are similar players. Currently they are both slumping, but I see them as potential .300+ hitters, 30 homer (40 homer for Upton), 100+ RBI, 100+ Runs, 20 SB types (10 for Upton). Hopefully you guys can help discern the difference and help in this discussion...
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Upton unless he can cure his strikeout problem will be and Andruw Jones type minus the great defense
Bruce will be rich man Geoff Jenkins which is an all star player.
by Bravesin07 on Jun 24, 2008 9:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't Andruw Jones an All Star? Bad Logic...
If answering, please provide more than one line or one word answers. Please try to defend your answers with knowledge or comparison.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Jun 24, 2008 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was lazy
Justin Upton’s tools are absurd. He’s got 70 arm, 70 speed, 70 power potential, 70 hit tool in the future, and 60 defense. He’s an absolute monster. He already walks a lot, once he cuts down on the K’s, his power power is already there and it’s going to get better. He’s everything you could want in a prospect.
Bruce is a stud. But Upton is in a class by himself.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on Jun 24, 2008 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he meant bravesin07
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Jun 25, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"minus the great defense"
Andruw Jones had some historically good seasons defensively. I’d be surprised if Upton did that.
by mraver on Jun 26, 2008 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hank Steinbrenner of SB
....strikes again!
Seriously….guys like this make a prospect site fun….they’re the guys you can bring back things to quite quickly….lol
by biggentleben on Jun 28, 2008 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure Jones was an all star but never reached half his ceiling which was Mays
The same could happen to Upton.
by Bravesin07 on Jun 24, 2008 10:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mays?
Andruw Jones had Willie Mays upside?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 24, 2008 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Drrrr
Don’t you know that every prospect has hall of fame upside?
by Galt on Jun 24, 2008 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My bad
Not only Hall of Fame upside; All time greatest CF upside.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 24, 2008 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WRONG!
Everyone knows Tike Redman was the greatest CF of all time. He was just used wrong and is underrated.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on Jun 24, 2008 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Henry Cotto would have had just one more chance
Then he could have made us all forget Willie Mays
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Jun 25, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No joke
Assuming Jones never lied about his age, you’d be hard pressed to find any prospect in the last 20 years with a higher ceiling than Jones. There’s Griffey, A-Rod, Andruw Jones, and Justin Upton. Jones absolutely deserved to be mentioned in the same breath as those three as a prospect, as his performance as a 19 year old in the 1996 World Series can attest to. That having been said, things obviously didn’t turn out as they could have. A better conditioned Jones very well may have been a Hall of Fame player and even an inner circle one like Mays.
I really don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Andruw Jones was an incredible, very rare, and very special kind of prospect. A GG (and then some) CF who had potential 50 HR power (which he eventually realized)? That smells like a great to me.
by GuyinNY on Jun 24, 2008 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
Go look at Mays years in his early 20s. He often hit 40-50 bombs with a .320+ average. He made great contact and his baserunning skills were excellent. Not to mention he was playing in a pitcher’s paradise. Jones was an excellent prospect but not even close to Mays. People need to start getting a little more realistic with their comps and truly need to appreciate the greatness of baseball’s past superstars.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 24, 2008 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prospect
As a prospect, Jones was as good as they’re going to come. 378/391/822 as a 19 year old in AAA isn’t too far off of 477BA/799SLG in AAA as a 20 year old. Jones also had an absolutely first rate toolset, and while I don’t know that it was quite comparable to Mays’, it had to be something close. Jones did not develop quite as quickly as Mays did, but he was already a great player by 23. Unfortunately, Jones’ development stalled for a long while, took a leap forward, and then several steps back.
None of this can change the fact that as a prospect, Andruw Jones’ ceiling was virtually without limit. He was a grade A prospect who could have become anything he wanted to. The problem is that it’s just not fair to expect someone to become anything near as great as Willie Mays. It doesn’t mean that the player didn’t have a realistic shot at it, though, and Andruw Jones’ certainly had a great chance to become a great. As it is, he was pretty amazing in his prime.
by GuyinNY on Jun 24, 2008 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Andruw Jones
This should give you an idea of how good of a prospect Andruw Jones was. He has pretty much been viewed as a complet failure his entire career, has completely fallen off the map by the age of 31, and is still a boderline HOFer.
by rwperu34 on Jun 25, 2008 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
HOF? really?
Unless he comes back with multiple 40-hr campaigns, you can forget about Jones as a HOFer. He doesn´t have the numerical benchmarks the BWAA eats up, and totally fails on a sabermetric level – a career high OPS+ of 136 with an overall mark of 112 is the definition of hall of good.
by slamcactus on Jun 25, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, let's put it this way
Andruw Jones had 368 homeruns after his age 30 season (last year) – that is 8th in history. Willie Mays had 331 for reference.
Now, I’m under no circumstances arguing that Andruw Jones is better than Willie Mays or even at all close, for the matter. I don’t know if a guy with 370 homers and a 112 Career OPS+ (even after this season) and a terrific fielder should make the HOF, though I suspect he shouldn’t – but I think there’s a reasonable argument that he should be considered. Having done that, though, by the age of 31, is pretty damn good
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Jun 25, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jones
I was curious, so I took 3 minutes to look at Jones´ performance throughout his career in a wider team context. A career-high 136 OPS+ just didn´t seem that impressive to me, so I looked at how Jones compared to his own teammates throughout his career.
His rank among regular hitters, by OPS+, on his teams each season since he became a regular in 1997:
2007: 7th
2006: 4th
2005: 2nd (his career year)
2004: 4th
2003: 5th
2002: 3rd
2001: 3rd
2000: 2nd
1999: 3rd
1998: 4th
1997: 8th
A few things stick out:
1. Andruw Jones has never been the best hitter on his own team.
2. Andruw Jones was the second best hitter on his own team only twice in his career.
3. Andruw Jones has only been one of the three best hitters on his team in 5 of the 11 seasons he´s played, and one of those (2001) his OPS+ was 94, solidly below league average. God the Braves´ lineup was terrible that year.
The Braves have been a winning team and all, but it´s not like they´ve been running murderers´ row lineups out for the past dozen years. The home run totals are impressive, but they´re mostly a function of starting very early and playing in the most extreme live ball era in the game´s history. It´s really difficult for me to consider a player who has not once been the best hitter on his own team a borderline hall of famer unless his defense is absolutely legendary.
by slamcactus on Jun 25, 2008 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prima Facie
1) Voters probably won’t vote on basis on OPS+. For a Hall of Fame vote, they’ll (rightfully so) check out his counting stats alongside his counting stats. I’ll grant that unless he has a major turnaround, Jones likely will not have Hall worthy counting stats (does he even make it to 400HR?), but he will be close. Voters will see 5 all-star games, 10 straight 25+ HR seasons, 4 100+ RBI seasons, 3 20/20 seasons, and a 50HR season during an MVP-caliber 2005 and they’ll know it came from an absolutely great (10x GG) defensive CF. That smells like the definition of borderline to me.
2) OPS+ is a pretty crappy stat for this game. This is especially true when you consider that Jones played in a very high offense era. Furthermore, as a rate stat, it won’t account for playing time. What do you define as a “regular” hitter? Because I’d be loathe to say Chipper Jones’ 432 and 477 PA seasons in 2005 and 2006 were more valuable than Andruw’s 672 and 669 PA seasons, and that’s without counting the defensive difference between them. I’d lean more heavily towards WARP-3, but even then, I’m not sure that it’ll do Jones justice because…
3) Jones’ defense was absolutely legendary in his prime. From about 1998-2003, his defense was astonishingly, amazingly, Willie Mays/Joe Dimaggio good. And that really swings the value Jones had. Quite frankly, I’m not confident enough in BP’s defensive metrics (or any, really) to say that WARP-3 will accurately represent Jones’ value. Jones’ superior defense in CF was a big reason why Braves pitchers had a great run.
I’m not saying that I think Andruw Jones is a slam-dunk Hall of Famer, or even anything close to that. I do, however, think he’s pretty definitively the definition of borderline right now. And at 31, there’s still plenty of time for Jones to get back into shape and just slop on a few 25HR/90RBI seasons that will bring his totals up and make him a slam dunk candidate. The question is whether or not he’s motivated enough to do it.
by GuyinNY on Jun 25, 2008 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OPS is a flawed stat anyway
it counts singles twice and walks once. It values .100 points in slugging equally with .100 points in OBP, when they aren’t of equivalent value.
Ozzie Smith was a hall of famer at shortstop solely because of his glove (well that and his backflips). Jones was as good at CF as Ozzie was at SS, and even if you say “NO WAY!”, Jones was lightyears ahead of Ozzie as a hitter.
I’m not sure why I’m responding to your post, it was just long and there. I’m not really disagreeing with anything you are writing.
Andruw Jones is a hall of famer if he retires today.
by Galt on Jun 25, 2008 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Walks vs. singles
Singles are worth more than walks and SHOULD be counted twice IMO.
by sharksrog on Jun 26, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ehh
I wouldn’t go that far. A walk is certainly worth more than a single, and given a choice between a 280/400 hitter, and a 320/400 hitter, I’d definitely take the 320 hitter, but I don’t know that a single has twice the value of a walk.
I’d gladly take both players.
by GuyinNY on Jun 26, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Edit : A single is certainly worth more than a walk.
I really need to start proofreading…
by GuyinNY on Jun 26, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
walk vs single
In terms of bases advanced a walk hovers right around 1.4 (or .4 bases advanced by runners already on base) where as a single is about 1.8 bases. So a single is worth twice a walk in terms of advancing runners, but only about 33% more in terms of total value.
by bushe on Jun 27, 2008 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By linear weights, a single
is typically worth about 1.5 times as much as a walk.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jun 27, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You´re right...
that voters don´t vote based on OPS+ or any single other stat. They will, however, notice that Jones only hit .300 once in his career. By the time he retires and waits his 5 years I think a lot more baseball writers will be open to weighing on-base percentage more heavily as well, and Jones´ career high is .366.
I also think the HOF voters in the near future will be a lot less impressed with one-dimensional home run hitters. 500hr – which I highly doubt Jones reaches – just isn´t as impressive as it used to be. 400hr, which he could probably pull off, even less so.
I guess I´ll just have to disagree with you on the defense thing. I know Jones had great defense back in the day, but so few players ever really reach the status of legendary defender that I really don´t see Jones being remembered that way. I´m sure the fact that he was a good defensive CF will help him with some voters, but we´re not talking an Ozzie Smith or Willie Mays type reputation here.
If Andruw Jones had retired with his present-day numbers in 1990, it would be different. I really don´t think his accomplishments will put him anywhere near the benchmark for the hall in the context of today´s game. As far as former Atlanta CF´s go, I think Dale Murphy has a better case than Jones. I don´t think Murphy belongs in the hall either, but at least he had a run of 6 seasons where he was a legitimately dominant hitter.
by slamcactus on Jun 26, 2008 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
defense
Yes we are talking about Ozzie Smith in the outfield. Best defensive outfielder in the last 30+ years. Truly a game changing defender.
by bushe on Jun 27, 2008 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Devon White
In my opinion he was the best CF I ever saw. The guy looked effortless out there and ran like a deer.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 27, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
I can buy that your argument against Jones, as I think that his defense really is what puts him over the top. On that topic, I think that Jones’ legacy will be as a player who did play Mays-level defense in his prime, but squandered his talent. Jones may yet make the Hall, but in all likelihood, he could also become a cautionary tale about a player who took his gifts for granted.
This doesn’t change the fact that I think he’s got a pretty good argument to get into the Hall.
by GuyinNY on Jul 3, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with what Guy said above
But I wanted to add that your comparissons also fail in that Andruw Jones was player for each of those years along side another HoF player in Chipper Jones! So every one of those years, he’s going to finish behind Chipper in OPS+ or whatever. You throw in the random JD Drew career year, the Gary Sheffield year, and it doesn’t surprise me that he was often 3rd or 4th best (OPS-wise) on his team.
Also, you said:
“It´s really difficult for me to consider a player who has not once been the best hitter on his own team a borderline hall of famer unless his defense is absolutely legendary.”
His defense in CF over about a 5-year period was about the best baseball has ever seen. I think Mays may have had a similar streak or something, but that’s about it. There’s a reason Andruw Jones kept winning Gold Gloves after he had lost a step or 3: he was two steps ahead of everyone else to begin with. If that’s not legendary, then I don’t know what is.
by mraver on Jun 26, 2008 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don´t think so
List the number of players in baseball history with a truly legendary defensive reputation. It´s very, very small.
It´s tough to quantify defense, but Mike Cameron had every bit as good a defensive reputation as Andruw Jones during both players´ prime years.
The Chipper Jones factor would be more compelling if A. Jones was consistently the second best hitter on his team. It would also be more compelling if Jones were putting up elite numbers during those years. He wasn´t. He´s never been anywhere near an elite hitter. There are about 20 players who didn´t/won´t sniff the hall who have a better career OPS+ than the one Jones put up in the best year of his career.
And yes, OPS+ isn´t a perfect stat, but it´s useful for a quick and dirty approximation of offensive value across eras.
by slamcactus on Jun 26, 2008 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It´s tough to quantify defense, but Mike Cameron had every bit as good a defensive reputation as Andruw Jones during both players´ prime years.
Incorrect.
by mraver on Jun 27, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I should also say that this “Ozzie Smith in the OF” is over-stating the case a bit. There are CFs (I think like 2) that were as good and Jones was during his prime. No one has ever been close to what Smith was. He’s in a different world.
So while Jones was clearly the elite defensive CF of his generation (albeit over a far shorter stint than it could have been), he wasn’t worlds better than everyone else in the same way that Ozzie Smith was.
by mraver on Jun 27, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Smith was off the charts defensively.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 27, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Jones was a fantastic prospect. He had an amazing power/speed package and combined that with legit GG defense in center. He was playing at an MLB All-Star level at 19 years old.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on Jun 25, 2008 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Let’s seriously look at what this guy has done. Yeah, some of the advanced stats are limited, But, honestly, if I were to tell you a guy had 350+ homers, multiple gold gloves, etc. by the time he was 31, you guys would shit your pants. The bottom line comes down to whther Andruw can regroup, or whatever, and resume a productive career.
I don’t know what has happened in the last year+, but if he’d figure it out and play another five years at an ‘06 level (he still wouldn’t be that old), would your opinion change? Damn right it would. Bottom line, the book is not closed. If he was done today, I’d say no, but based on his age/pace, he could sit out a couple of years and make a comeback to cement his status.
by killa on Jun 26, 2008 3:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mays
in all seriousness, no one ever mentioned mays as a legit comparison to him until he was 4-5 years into the league and it was always a defensive comment….
the comment i heard most about him was andre dawson with elite centerfield defense….and really, there’s a lot to that comp now in career production….though dawson was able to continue it longer….likewise, the hawk is a borderline HOFer right now as well….if jones can come back to produce a few 30/100 years to finish out his career, he’ll be in….
by biggentleben on Jun 28, 2008 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mays
Andruw Jones may not have been Mays in terms of his production in the majors, but his minor league track record stacks up nicely. Jones’ defense will be remembered as the best of his generation, and he brought a very good bat along with it. Moreover, his counting stats are already at least Hall of Very Good, if not borderline HOF, when his position is taken into context. I’ve got Jones as borderline-in for the HOF, and nowhere near Mays on the All-Time list. But then, just because someone’s not as good as Willie Mays doesn’t mean they’re not a Hall of Famer, right?
by GuyinNY on Jul 3, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow
more and more….
only comparison to mays was defensively….nothing else…..anything else is simply absurdity….no one at the time he was in the minors or ever when he was in the majors considered his offensive skills anywhere near mays….any comments about mays had to do with defense….
by biggentleben on Jun 28, 2008 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jones
As I mentioned earlier, check out their AAA performances. Just because Jones didn’t turn out to be quite the big leaguer the Say Hey Kid was doesn’t mean he wasn’t as good a prospect. Andruw Jones was about the closest thing to Mr.Sickels’ mythical “A+” as you’re going to find.
by GuyinNY on Jul 3, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
minor league
he put up tremendous numbers in the minors, true, but was never a good comp to mays in skillset….mays’ speed put him in a different category than jones, who never really had great baserunning instincts, even when he was thinner and could run better…..
by biggentleben on Jul 3, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Funny I recall another upton
who came up at 19… really struggled, had some serious contact problems… and by 22 people had already started forgetting about him… whatever happened to that guy?
"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"
by jbluestone on Jun 24, 2008 11:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is the way I look at it
Everything Bruce can do, Upton can do better.
by rwperu34 on Jun 25, 2008 1:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
BJ vs. Justin
I remember reading an interesting article comparing them. It was basically saying BJ is very good but Justin is better in almost every way. It was quite funny how they did it. When I read it something didn’t feel right.
Then I read another article and their father was talking about the two. Some of the things that I saw some new light:
Justin Upton was supposedly much faster. And because of this was going to get more steals once he learned the pitchers. And his defence would be much better because of the speed.
truth: Justin has better top speed. BJ is much quicker. ie. first step. Quicker is generally more important except for tracking a ball very far away. Quicker is better for D and much much better for steals.
Justin Upton was supposed to be a better hitter.
truth: Justin always was more of a pull hitter and more impatient. His brother learned much more from their father and used the full field. He won’t have the same power but is a better overall hitter. Justin relied more on talent.
I think Justin is a very special talent. He can be a Griffey type player. I just think many don’t realize how special his brother is and that he can be as good or even better.
by pedrophile on Jun 25, 2008 1:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
BOSSMAN is heaps better right now, and imo, it will stay this way, until Justin has his 1 or 2 peak-MVP seasons, then it will be a push….
by daveh33 on Jun 25, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
-1
If by “heaps better” you mean BJ has a lower Slugging%, then yeah, he’s heaps better. Back in ‘04 when he was 20 years old, BJ put up a line of .258/.324/.409. His little bro is at .242/.358/.433 today. Of course, BJ is better today but only because HE’S THREE YEARS OLDER. I’m not surprised you think this because your a Devil Rays’ sycophant. Just barely a year ago, big bro BJ struck out a whopping 154 times so he’s no stranger to walking back to the dugout as well. That’s just over once every 3 AB.
The only stat BJ is “heaps better” than Justin is stolen bases. Whoop-de-doo.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 25, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
Before you try to score points for pointing it out. It should be YOU’RE insted of your a Devil Rays sycophant. And yes, I know it’s just the Rays but IDC.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 25, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BOSSMAN
is tied for the lead league in outfield assists… i’d wager that his D is heaps better.
by daveh33 on Jun 25, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heaps
so where are you from in Australia?
by Galt on Jun 25, 2008 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lived there for a year
and that word was probably the most annoying of their everyday aussieisms… so now im trying to get it to stick over here in america
by daveh33 on Jun 25, 2008 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's pretty sadistic of you
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Jun 25, 2008 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not criticizing
I just thought it was funny
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Jun 26, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my favorite
was how every sentence ends with “and shit”
by Galt on Jun 25, 2008 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
disagree
Bossman is better now. Now being 2008.
Yeah, Justin is younger and expected to improve. But so will BJ. But I think it’s a guess on who will improve more.
Also, I think Justin may struggle more because of his approach. It’s just not as good of an approach and that’s not about age but about style. Then again I don’t expect Justin to get bounced around so that should help.
by pedrophile on Jun 25, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes on the approach.
justin could learn a thing or two from his bro.
by daveh33 on Jun 25, 2008 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh Sure
I can learn how to strike out 150+ times.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 26, 2008 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
has something crawled up your ass?
this rectal bulb syringe may help
by daveh33 on Jun 27, 2008 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heyyyyyyyyyy
don’t be getting me excited now!
by pedrophile on Jun 27, 2008 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pass
Looks like you’ve used it hundreds of times already to get your head out of your own ass.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 27, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, that one's brand new
you should see mine from last year.
haha, honestly i dont remember having argued with or even spoken to you before… did i eat your last bowl of fruit loops once? i don’t get this sudden animosity… ? and really, internet bullying is so 2005
by daveh33 on Jun 27, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
read this post
http://www.draysbay.com/2008/6/25/558582/does-upton-think-he-s-wade
you sycophantic asshat
by daveh33 on Jun 27, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
blocked?
Every so often, as I read blogs, a poster like this daveh33 guy here comes along and takes blogging to a new level – prompting me to ask myself deeper questions, such as:
1. Why do I read this nonsense, anyway?
2. Why isn’t there a “block” feature in the software, so I can select certain posters to not read?
3. Isn’t there an age requirement for these things?
by BobbyMac on Jun 27, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you must be joking
ive been a part of this place for over 3 years… this waynecampbell dude is riding my jock, and i can’t call him an asshat?
by daveh33 on Jun 27, 2008 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i forgot to mention
for no specific reason, that i can think of, this waynecampbell dude is doing this
by daveh33 on Jun 27, 2008 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought there was a way to block certain posters?
I’ve always been too lazy to do it, and I’m certainly not recommending it about any particular poster, but I’ve definitely seen that feature on some sites – I assumed that with all of their upgrades, they would have it here too, but I’m not certain. Though I don’t think I’ve ever been bothered enough by any person to even want to do it
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Jun 27, 2008 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i've heard
Upton is pitched carefully with runners in scoring position, thus more walks and less quality pitches to drive. From what they were saying Pena has been hurt and even when not hurt he wasn’t the guy he was last year. If Longoria starts hitting 4th then maybe Upton will finally get pitches to drive.
by pedrophile on Jun 28, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
check today's game
BOSSMAN hitting first with Longo hitting 3rd… very interesting
by daveh33 on Jun 28, 2008 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look jerkoff, I didn’t make this personal until you did by posting that inflammatory title and picture. You must be a totally clueless and a complete brain stem to not know why I’m pissed off. You’re a shill for anyone and everyone in the Devil Rays organization. You’re a fucking moron and I’m not going to take your insults.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 28, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And we've gotten away from the argument that I posted...
Who do you think will develop better, Upton or Bruce? Talent wise Upton is my choice, but the point is development and long term scheme of things. Please try to answer along those lines as Andruw Jones was discussed here more than either Upton or Bruce…
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Jun 25, 2008 2:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tools wise
I think they are both fantastic players. Very fun to watch.
Off the top of my head tools wise I would say this.
Hit for AVG – Upton – He really makes great hard contact, great bat speed
Hit for Power- Bruce- I think he has a lot more natural loft in his swing, along with the park
Speed – Upton
Arm – Upton
Range – Upton
Adding John’s –
Fielding Reliability – Tie?
Controlling the strike zone – I have to say Bruce
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on Jun 25, 2008 9:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
range in strat-o-matic
strat-o-matic gave Upton a 4 in RF. Where Maybin in his brief stint was given a 2 in CF no less(so you cant really use the limited AB arguement, so Upton’s 4 was a REAL 4). If Upton is a 4 in RF, i find it hard to believe that Bruce is WORSE in CF than Upton can be in RF. Does Bruce really have 5 range in CF?
Go Pirates!!!
by cool hand Charlie on Jun 25, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably right
To be honest, I really have only myself seen them play defense a handful of times. And for the most part defensive players are routine in the OF.
It was more based on Speed which of course is a big mistake on my part.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on Jun 25, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couple Things
I think both GAB & Chase Field are about equal hitter’s parks. Bruce’s has the edge in HR but Justin’s park is better for 2B & 3B.
Do you seriously believe that Bruce controls the strike zone better? Jay Bruce is horrible and always has been. His K:BB rate in
the minors was 339:125 (2.71 K:BB) over 1341 ABs. Roughly once every 4 ABs he struck out while walking only once per 11. On the
other hand, Jupton’s career minor legue numbers are 175 K, 108 BB in 823 ABs. That translates to a K every 4.7 AB and one walk
every 7.6 ABs (1.62 K:BB).
So they both strike out at the same rate with Justin striking out less and Upton walking about 50% more than Bruce. Are you being
blinded by his insanely hot start in the majors or something? Since he cooled off and in his last 16 games, he’s walked only 4 times
while striking out 21 in 62 ABs which is what I believe his real strikezone judgement lies. His hot start screams fluke to me as he never put up numbers like that in any league before.
Even with Jupton’s June Swoon and Bruce’s hot start, their K:BB ratios are roughly equivalent (1.92 to 2.10 in favor of Bruce). Upton’s
walk rate blows Bruce’s out of the water (5.71 vs 7.92) which almost makes up for Justin’s bad K rate (2.73 to 4.12). Upton 240 AB / 42 BB / 88 K and Bruce 103/13/25
I think it’s ludicrous to say that Bruce has better control of the strike zone than Upton in the face of all the evidence to the contrary.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 25, 2008 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wont disagree with you
Except that from what I have seen is that Bruce’s strikeouts are not because of a lack of judgment. I couldn’t attest to what they are, because we don’t have that much data on him. But from what I have seen of him he doesn’t swing at bad pitches.
I don’t personally believe that strike zone judgment is solely based on BB and SO. There is a lot more to controlling the strike zone. Pitch selection is a huge key.
Like I said, I haven’t seen enough of them to make really fair judgments. I don’t like to use second hand sources. Those stats are very telling that Upton, not Bruce has a better walk rate. I’m just not sure if walk rate is the only judge of strike zone judgment.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on Jun 25, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neither bruce nor upton are projected as future CFers
I think both players have potentials to finish their careers as HOF players. But the difference is that Upton has the potential to be “legendary” where Bruce will just be “great.”
"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"
by jbluestone on Jun 25, 2008 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes Upton does
He’s blazing fast. He projects as a plus CFer if he’s put there, with an amazing arm. Chris Young is the only reason he’s not playing CF now. That and he’s played OF for all of 2.5 seasons in his entire life.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on Jun 25, 2008 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think your right
I thought I had read that he projected in RF, but re-read and it was just because of Chris Young
"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"
by jbluestone on Jun 25, 2008 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some Observational Thoughts
I’ve seen Upton play about six times in person and several more on TV. From watching him live, he does not look like a CF or a basestealer. He’s fast, but not quick. OTOH, he is HUMONGOUS already, especially in the core. I see his game as more of a Danny Tartabull (adjusted for era) on the good side, Manny Ramirez on the great, with maybe a little Adam Dunn (minus the clogging of the bases and drunk defense) mixed in.
Jay Bruce I’ve only seen a few times on TV and he does not look like a guy that’s going to spank 40-50 bombs a year. Despite his minor league K-rate and power production, his swing looks like more of an average swing. I can see Bruce being a .320 hitter with 30 HR yearly, and lots of doubles. Both look like RF to me, although Bruce looks more capable of playing CF in the short term.
by rwperu34 on Jun 25, 2008 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bruce
At this time I will go with Bruce. In my opinion has better athletic skills but Bruce has shown better polish to date.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 25, 2008 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is like asking
who is better Mayes or Mantle? I’m not saying that either Bruce or Upton will be Mayes or Mantle. I am saying that they should both be terrific players for hopefully a long time. Some years one may be better than another. I don’t know how you can say one will be better than the other for certain though. This would be a question to revisit in 5-7 years. By the way just to brag, I happen to own both Justin Upton and Jay Bruce in my SOMBB league. Drafted them in back to back years. Upton lasted to the 7th pick the year I picked him. Didn’t think he’d still be there when I picked, but sure as heck wasn’t going to let him get past me. So while ya’ll argue the finer points of prospecting, I’m gonna just sit back and enjoy watching them in real life and on SOMBB!
by gohrns on Jun 25, 2008 10:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I tend to feel Upton make take things to easily
I think there were whispers in the minors his first full season, how he was ‘bored’ and put up pedestrian numbers. It may never be discussed, but I tend to think he needs to be focused to become a greater player on a game to game basis?
Am I the only one who feels this way and is it a valid reason to perhaps knock Upton down just a little?
by BBFan1 on Jun 25, 2008 11:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
bored in the minors
doesn’t necessarily equate to bored in the majors.
Hanley Ramirez was knocked for the same thing.
by pedrophile on Jun 26, 2008 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Yeah… and that was really on from his first season in the minors (which was considered largely disapointing) there was not a peep of that last year nor this year. And honestly look at all the walks hes taking… this guys is gonna hhave a big slump breakout in the 2nd half
"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"
by jbluestone on Jun 26, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
upton
no doubt….having now seen both live, upton’s just a presence at the plate and in the field that bruce doesn’t have….best estimation of just the buzz and feeling when you watch the guy play is when i watched early griffey with the mariners….pure baseball skill put to fruition, not even really needing the athleticism because his skill was so high, nevermind that he does have athleticism in bounds as well, as did griffey at the time….
by biggentleben on Jun 28, 2008 9:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
I get that vibe just from WATCHING the games.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Jun 29, 2008 6:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
clarification
before folks start throwing out this stat and that stat of how junior griffey and j.upton aren’t similar players, i want to clarify that i’m only comparing them in terms of buzz and their incredibly high level of baseball ability mixed with athleticism….upton very well may turn into a very different player than griffey, but the buzz for the guy on the field is unlike anyone i’ve seen in my lifetime outside of mr. griffey
by biggentleben on Jun 29, 2008 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have both as fantasy keepers
and love both. I think Upton has the greater upside, but Bruce should up some monster numbers if he stays in Cinci.
You can’t lose either way, Upton slightly better tools, but Bruce plays a position of greater scarcity (although he might move one day) so it’s a toss up.
Great question though
www.wazzel.com (prove your sports knowledge if you can)
by NeifiChicken on Jul 1, 2008 8:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hrmm...
I just realized that I never did offer an opinion on Bruce v. Upton, so here goes…
I think Upton will be the better player long term, and I’ve thought this since they were drafted. Upton’s future is in CF, whereas Bruce will eventually have to convert to RF. I’ll freely admit that Bruce has blown me away this year, as I had him pegged as something like a rich man’s Dave Kingman and I’ve got JUpton as “missed it by THAT much” Griffey (hopefully, minus the injuries). While this year has done quite a bit to alter my perception of Bruce (I now consider him a VERY rich man’s Dave Kingman, and I’m hoping some other poster would have a better comp than that as it’s probably time to move off the Kingman comp), my perception of Upton remains roughly the same. He’ll continue to flash greatness with intermittent periods of being overmatched over the next 1-2 years, with the great periods eventually rendering the overmatched periods to nil.
An above poster probably said it best when they said that while Bruce has the chance to be a great, HOF type player, Upton’s got a chance to be the sort of legend you tell your grandkids you saw play.
by GuyinNY on Jul 3, 2008 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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