Prospect Update: Neftali Feliz
Neftali Feliz was signed by the Atlanta Braves as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2005. He made his North American debut in '06, posting a 4.03 ERA for the Gulf Coast League Braves, with a 42/14 K/BB ratio in 29 innings...an exceptional K/IP mark. Scouts praised his 93-95 MPH fastball, but pointed out the need for better command and additional polish in all phases of the game. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2007 book, noting his long-term potential...remember C+ is a very good grade for a guy in the GCL in my system.
Feliz began 2007 with Danville in the Appy League, posting a 1.98 ERA but wiht a 28/12 K/BB in 27 innings. He was traded to the Rangers in the Teixeira deal, and assigned to Spokane in the Northwest League...a step up in competition. He fanned 27 guys in just 15 innings for Spokane, but walked 12 with a 3.60 ERA. Again, he continued to impress people with his arm strength, but the command was still a problem. I raised his grade to B- in the book this year, and wrote the following: "I want to see some full-season numbers before going higher than Grade B-, but if his command comes around, he could be one of the best pitching prospects in baseball a year from now."
Feliz appears to be taking that step forward. In 14 starts for Clinton in the Class A Midwest League, Feliz is 5-2, 2.24 with an 83/24 K/BB ratio in 68.1 innings, just 44 hits allowed, with a 1.71 GO/AO ratio and only one homer given up. The walk rate is good, not superb in relative terms, but certainly improvied. His K/IP and H/IP are excellent and he is dominating the league. Midwest League sources indicate this fastball is consistently in the mid-90s, and he's made major strides refining his curveball and changeup. I also like his athleticism, which gives him some additional velocity projection as he matures and should, in theory anyway, help him stay healthy.
The statistical breakdown is interesting. He's holding lefties to a .176 mark, righthanded hitters to a .202. His home/road splits are rather weird...the ERA isn't much different, 2.13 at home vs. 2.37 on the road. But in 38 home innings, he has a 54/20 K/BB but just a .159 average against, while on the road in 30.1 innings he has a 29/4 K/BB but a .222 average against. Given these sample sizes I don't know if it means anything or not, but it is at least interesting that his command has been so much better on the road, even if he's been more hittable there. Feliz has a 57/13 K/BB in his last 47 innings, so it looks like he's polished up his command a bit more over his last few starts.
Obviously there is a lot to like here, and I don't have much hesitation about raising his grade all the way to Grade B+. I am working on a new version of my prospects list, and Feliz will definitely rank somewhere high up, although where exactly I don't know yet. But given the progress he's made this year, he's clearly an elite talent. Rangers fans should be very happy to have him. Feliz didn't get as much attention as some of the other names in the Teixeira trade, but if he maintains this sort of progress he could be the best of them all.
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Comments
I'd like to add...
Feliz went 6 innings last night… 0 ER… 2 BBs… 3 hits and 10 Ks! Lowered his ERA 2.06..
Someday I will become a RangerMAN!
by RangerBoy on Jun 23, 2008 9:26 AM EDT 0 recs
Feliz is 5-2, 2.24 with an 83/24 K/BB ratio in 68.1 innings… The walk rate is still rather high in relative terms.
Is that walk rate so high? I don’t mean this sarcastically.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Jun 23, 2008 10:05 AM EDT 0 recs
Good progress
In 2006-2007 he walked just under 13% of batters faced overall, this year 9%. For a guy who is still young and has such great stuff, this is good progress and makes command something I worry about a bit less than last fall.
Also, you have to love the fact that he’s only given up 3 home runs from 2006-2008 AND has a 1.6 GO/FB ratio. There is just nothing in his numbers to dampen the enthusiasm.
...and curse Sir Sidney Ponson, he was such a stupid git.
by t ball on
Jun 23, 2008 10:57 AM EDT
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walsk
that is probably a bit of an overstatement….I think I will revise that line.
by John Sickels on
Jun 23, 2008 11:00 AM EDT
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So John
right now is Feliz is the top prospect in the Rangers’ system? Or does he sit just behind Chris Davis?
by Agreen07 on Jun 23, 2008 10:22 AM EDT 0 recs
Smoak
at #3?
...and curse Sir Sidney Ponson, he was such a stupid git.
by t ball on
Jun 23, 2008 1:56 PM EDT
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The Smoak Monster
needs to get his ass signed first.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on
Jun 23, 2008 5:02 PM EDT
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Nice
This is what I’m talking about! Great take on the strange home/away tendencies, which don’t line up with any intuitive notions about how those factors may play out—should be interesting to see whether his further development causes us to read those splits as an aberration or the first preview of something larger.
I basically picked up Feliz in all of my leagues after reading Goldstein’s raves 2+ years ago—can’t say I’ve been anything but thrilled with his development. I’m guessing his season this year has quieted down any talk about him being a reliever in disguise.
Who would win in a smackdown, Feliz or Hellickson?
by gogotabata on Jun 23, 2008 10:29 AM EDT 0 recs
hellickson
Eh….I think Hellickson since he is more proven at a higher level, but it would be really close.
by John Sickels on
Jun 23, 2008 11:01 AM EDT
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wow, over andrus?
i find that quite surprising given that andrus was the consensus #1 going into the year and has done nothing to hurt his stock
by Wheelhouse on
Jun 23, 2008 12:06 PM EDT
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reply in wrong spot
should be in response to the previous post
by Wheelhouse on
Jun 23, 2008 12:13 PM EDT
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Concensus #1 is a bit strong
In most cases, Davis-Hurley-Andrus-Teagarden were interchangeable at the top of the list.
I don’t agree with BP’s assertion that his stock has slipped ‘significantly’ from #58 overall, though.
by BudLight on
Jun 23, 2008 12:27 PM EDT
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No consensus
There was no consensus at all on who the #1 prospect was, really. Hurley, Andrus, Davis, Feliz all made appearances at #1 in various lists.
If Feliz keeps this up, he will likely be the consensus #1, especially if Davis is promoted to Arlington on about Aug. 1.
...and curse Sir Sidney Ponson, he was such a stupid git.
by t ball on
Jun 23, 2008 1:57 PM EDT
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is he getting by on just his fastball or are his other offerings major league pitches or project to be major league pitches at this point? Basically, is he blowing people away with the heater like Bumgarner at the lower levels or can he sustain this kind of success as he moves up the ladder? Anyone seen him pitch live or have a good feel for the kid?
by loop on Jun 23, 2008 11:03 AM EDT 0 recs
From what I've heard
His change is a solid 2nd option and the breaking ball is a work in progress.
by BudLight on
Jun 23, 2008 11:28 AM EDT
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goldstein saw him live once
and put him in the top 30 overall prospects in the league last year…....so…....and his curve and change both project to be major league pitches and fom what I’ve heard have improved a lot since they were a “work in progress”
by slash on
Jun 24, 2008 2:57 PM EDT
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So long term if he pans out
Closer or Starter John?
What improvements does he need to take to become an elite closer? What improvements for Starter? Does he have and could he possibly be an ace of the staff? When do you see him making the bigs?
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
by NYTXFAN on Jun 23, 2008 11:33 AM EDT 0 recs
starter
My guess is starter, assuming continued progress with the breaking ball. Sounds like his changeup is in good shape.
by John Sickels on
Jun 23, 2008 1:57 PM EDT
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Not I,
said the man in the funny hat!!
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
by NYTXFAN on
Jun 24, 2008 4:35 PM EDT
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So, does he actually reach AA this year?
I’m not even sure what IP pace he’s on. The total’s up over 70 already…
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Jun 23, 2008 1:26 PM EDT 0 recs
I listened to the game yesterday...
Apparently, his change up is vastly improved, and he was getting most of his K’s with that as the “hammer” pitch. The gun was slow yesterday, and the announcers made sure we knew about it… He was only clocking in at 90 (Which was more than likely 95 bay all accounts)
Many of the 10 K’s I heard were on changes, which apparently have a great bit of life to him.
I think this kid is going to be a gem.
by jmondo on Jun 23, 2008 1:38 PM EDT 0 recs
90's
he was throwing consistently in the mid-low 90’s at the game i went to,
also only one ball was hit into the outfield.
(he picked the guy off a few moments later)
by god allah star on
Jun 24, 2008 1:09 AM EDT
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But I was so, so happy
As a Rangers fan he was the young arm I wanted all along.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on
Jun 23, 2008 5:13 PM EDT
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I believe he also has 1 outing
in which he went 2/3 of an inning with 5 BB’s. Take that away, which we all know is allowed when you are attempting to make a point, and the stats are even more impressive.
by rothe on Jun 23, 2008 10:48 PM EDT 0 recs
2/3 IP with 5 BB
IIRC it was very wet and rainy that night
by groundingout on
Jun 24, 2008 12:08 AM EDT
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well then
it should def be removed from the stat line!
I’m stoked about this guy. I think he makes his AA debut to start 09 and depending on that the Rangers will be willing to fast track him. But not this season.
W: "Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."
by hubcityraider on
Jun 27, 2008 2:02 PM EDT
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