Elijah Dukes Controversy Benchmark

Sockpuppet wars...

Did you coin that? It’s a good way to describe that time. :)

"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"

by maxisagod on Jun 21, 2008 11:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I find that more suitable. Of course I never did understand why they are called “sockpuppets” (I see thew reason, just think there are better terms). So I think Clone Wars works better. Plus, it shows we are all geeks and nerds for taking something so seriously that we name it after a Star Wars movie.

By the way Wily Mo… love the “Scarlet Lefebvre” part. Made me laugh out loud.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jun 21, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

there were a lot of people who thought the Wood and Miller rankings were too high (or is that low?

Dukes still has a long way to go to justify that 15th placing… but Dmitri Young has helped him avoid major issues this season.

by SLK on Jun 21, 2008 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I still wouldn't touch him

Did you see his feud with Acta, when he showed him up in Pittsburgh? I can’t believe he wasn’t sent to the minors. His head is not on straight and I wonder how he’s going to handle the daily grind and the struggles.

by my dixie wrecked on Jun 21, 2008 7:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can see why you love Dukes

what with his career .222 batting average and .740 OPS. Obviously there weren’t 13 better prospects than that.

by Galt on Jun 21, 2008 8:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

oh hey galt.

remember that time i was like, “hey galt, why does it seem like you have this urge to argue with any and every thing i say?” and you were all, “what are you talking about? it’s your imagination, kid. now let’s blow this thing and go home.”

as far as this particular argument – not that i really believe reasoning with you is productive, which is sad in a way, considering how much time ayn rand spent talking about reason – he’s still breaking in. quoting “career” statistics for players with less than a full year of at-bats is silly. i don’t think his recent run of play is a fluke. if you do, then, like i say above, let’s keep watching. i don’t pretend to know for sure where his personality’s going to wind up, but i’m pretty confident that he’s good at baseball.

by wily mo on Jun 21, 2008 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, I don't

And I won’t remember the next time you say something foolish and act like it’s persecution the next time I or someone else corrects your foolishness.

Talking about “reason”, you create a thread based on one good thing Dukes has done all year. Small sample size much?

Dukes has done nothing for you to pat yourself on the back about. I’m quoting his performance to date. You know, “facts”? You have no data behind your argument yet felt the need to create a new thread so everyone could congratulate you about how great Dukes has been.

He hasn’t killed anyone yet. That’s about the only thing he can be proud of. No way should he have been a top 15 prospect on that list.

by Galt on Jun 22, 2008 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Dukes may be on a hot streak but it is hard to ignore his stats for the first two months of the season. Taking that into account with his outburst at Manny Acta, it appears it is only a matter of time before he misbehaves his way out of another organization.

Also, comparing Bradley to Dukes is completely unfair. Bradley may be a hot head on the field but he does not nearly have Dukes long list of run ins with the law.

Was Dukes a good prospect? Definetely. Top 15? Not a chance.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 22, 2008 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bradley is a total nut job

and is similar in a lot of ways. Not with the various legal problems. But the fact of being emotionally unstable.

by pedrophile on Jun 22, 2008 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

bradley

part of the reason i mention bradley is specifically this thread:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2006/10/30/74259/772#2299431

... where someone asks if you would rank bradley in a top 100 in hindsight, knowing all his issues – and says he wouldn’t – and i go back and rerank the BA top 100 from 2000 using hindsight and find that not only does bradley stay on the list, he moves up 12 slots from 36 to 24. and that’s even with me ranking him behind ryan patterson and jason jennings for some reason.

i think that’s a similar vibe to what’s going on here. at this point i can picture dukes having an albert belle career and some people still coming on here after he retires grumbling about “dukes… big mistake, putting him 15, no way. credibility destroyed”

by wily mo on Jun 22, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok.

Talking about "reason", you create a thread based on one good thing Dukes has done all year. Small sample size much?

small sample size more than you can imagine, my friend. small sample size now, small sample size tomorrow, small sample size forever.

it’s not just about the one game, of course. that was just a trigger. he’s hitting .325/.409/.506 for the month, including yesterday’s big 0-5.

Dukes has done nothing for you to pat yourself on the back about. I’m quoting his performance to date. You know, "facts"? You have no data behind your argument yet felt the need to create a new thread so everyone could congratulate you about how great Dukes has been.

yes, i know “facts”. but everything is a fact; judgment comes in when you try to interpret the facts, and decide which facts you’re going to pay attention to.

you’re saying, .740 career OPS, end of story. i’m trying to look at dukes the same way i’d look at any prospect.

first of all, a .740 OPS in a hitter’s first 350 career PAs is fine.

then, my approach has always included an effort to try and read trends, in addition to all the various stats and scouting reports that we all see. with dukes, we’ve had april-may 2007, when he hit 10 home runs with a terrible BA and quite a few walks, holding his own but looking to be trying too hard to hit for power. then june of that year he had the drama and practically went 0 for the month. my opinion is that had little or nothing to do with his hitting ability. then this year, he pulled his hamstring, and put up a .520 OPS in 50 AB in may as a part-time player coming back from injury with little spring training. i don’t put much stock in those numbers either. and now we have the .916 june as a starter.

my point is, if this was any other player having this kind of month under these circumstances we’d get “elijah dukes: here comes the breakout” diaries. so i decided to post one. yes it’s kind of a dick diary, and i admitted as much when i wrote it. and yes, the case is still far from closed; i admitted that too. but a bunch of people were trying to close it last year. that was wrong. that’s really my point in posting. i already said that too.

and yet here you are, still stomping on the book trying to close it -

No way should he have been a top 15 prospect on that list.

so, i guess it’s over. pay no attention to the man in right field.

by wily mo on Jun 22, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Understand what you are saying Wily man...

Dukes stirs up so many stupid emotions on here but he is just starting to scratch the surface. Time will tell on the “I told you so’s” but one thing lost so far about that “terrible” OPS he has posted so far is that NONE of the players rated higher are any better …Gordon .737, Delmon .697, Butler .749…all NOT in small sample sizes…and ,since we are being unfair here, Brandon Wood is at .376. Lets keep going…Chris Young .751, Justin Upton .738, Tulo .762 at Coors,

Anyhoo, I realize Im responding to the other dude more than you’s bro but either his point that Dukes has proven nothing (or proven that Dukes sucks) applies to ALL these players or none of them. Looking at it reasonably, meaning I stand almost alone in saying that I LIKE Elijah Dukes, mostly because i know a lot of crazy folks myself and he hasd never done anything to ME and I dont have to deal with his crazy ass :-) The other part is that he, like ALL the guys listed above STILL look like they have a good chance to be good big leaguers. He fits right in with that group…some ups, some downs…hitting a baseball is difficult.

Is that a record for run-on sentences or what bro ? :-)

As for the amazing Tim Lincecum’s placement at 20, and phenom Ryan Braun’s at 25, thats a whole ‘nother story.

Take it easy.

by casejud on Jun 22, 2008 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Dukes has barely logged more than a half season of playing time in the majors. He’s only 24. He’s shown a good track record of making adjustments and on a normal development curve would project to be at least a decent outfielder. Given his immense natural ability, it seems very possible that he may very well blow right past “normal” development markers given enough time on the field.

Yes, the guy might be absolutely nuts. But on raw talent he rates very highly, and all things considered I can’t say that the top 15 ranking was totally unjustified.

by mrkupe on Jun 22, 2008 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats what I like about you...

...Kupe. You keep irrational emotional bullshit out of the conversation and make an attemp to just evaluate the PLAYER. So many on here have acted like Elijah is the evilest sonavabitch ever to walk the earth when he’s just a young kid with some problems trying to establish himself in the big leagues and doing as good as ANY of the hitters rated higher than him on that list.

Of course it could mean the LIST great as well (it isnt) but he has played as good as any of them.

by casejud on Jun 22, 2008 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would

Wait and see if Dukes can put together a successful full season or two, or three, before labeling him someone who is either is on the path to failure [for basically seeming like a thug on the baseball field]. Or a guy who can be successful, albeit in the Milton Bradley or Albert Belle [in Dukes’ wildest dreams] mold.

by BBFan1 on Jun 22, 2008 1:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thug

I am more concerned with his thug antics off the field, than I am with them on the field. Baseball players can handle the actions of a 200 pound man. 130 pound females are not so lucky.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 22, 2008 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ony you can prvent forest fires!

Smoking is bad! Dont drink and drive!

Just helping you be the voice of morality, thank you KBR!

by casejud on Jun 22, 2008 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Grow up

Being against the abuse of woman is not morality. It is plain human decency. Being a professional baseball player is a priviledge, not a right, and does not excuse you from being a negative influence on society. Your comparison of smoking to assaulting a female is downright insulting and dispicable. If you have every been close to someone who has been in an abusive relationship I doubt you would be so condescending. Dukes has a history of violence against women and that is not to be taken lightly.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 23, 2008 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

really

what violence against women?

The phone (or whatever) he threw at his sister? Come on.

The text message to his ex that he was charged with? That was very quickly dropped as it appears this was made up by his crazy ex.

The dude is crazy and probably dangerous. But you are immediately insuating he beats women and other things. Unless you have inside info that’s going a bit far. And it’s quite funny that when someone calls you out they must be “anti women”.

It’s sort of like when people don’t like the Iraq war they must be haters of the Army or haters of protecting the nation. lol

by pedrophile on Jun 23, 2008 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ummm...

It’s one thing to say he’s a good prospect, it’s one thing to say that external factors shouldn’t influence how we seem him as a baseball player.

It’s QUITE another to say throwing a phone at his sister is nothing.

by OldProspects on Jun 23, 2008 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Throwing a phone at his sister?

Is that was this is coming down to? The media has made Dukes appear 10 times the monster he truly is by drilling every infraction (even the made up ones) down our throats.

Why aren’t we having discussions like this about Scott Olsen?

by DrunkIrish on Jun 23, 2008 3:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

by pedrophile on Jun 23, 2008 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because ...

...hes white, thats why.

by casejud on Jun 23, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I used to throw stuff at my sister all the time

I mean, let’s face it. Sisters can be pretty annoying.

by mraver on Jun 23, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Text message

The text message wasn’t dropped, and a lot of us have seen the text message, so I doubt she made it up. She ended up having to backtrack on some other crazy stuff she said, but the text message never went away. The underage sex thing also went away.

He also threw a cellphone at his sister (do you really think a cellphone coming at you at 90 mph wouldn’t hurt?), threw a playstation controller at a friend hard enough that it exploded, and lifted a teammate off the ground by his neck.

He’s violent PERIOD. What he’s made clear is that he’s an equal opportunity offender. Maybe he’s not a wife beater per se, but he’s made it clear that he won’t not beat someone up just because they’re close to him,

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jun 23, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not just his sister

His FOSTER sister. STAY CLASSY ELIJAH!!!!

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 23, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

huh

because we’ve seen the text message makes it somehow real?????

Please explain that one for me.

by pedrophile on Jun 23, 2008 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shee-it

For all I know she was abusing him. A) He isnt Lawrence Phillips B) I havent heard of him hitting any women, just verbal disputes moslty C) It isnt any of my business D) A lot of people like the kid D) You dont know him dude.

by casejud on Jun 23, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not compairing

I disagree with almost everything you say though unfortunately…

Playing baseball IS a right, if you are good enough. OBVIOUSLY, it doesnt excuse you from being a law-abiding citizen…they will throw any of us in jail if we arent…Dukes is a free man and as far as i know has NO serious charges against him. There are a few other players playing who DO (Brett Myers, Julio Lugo are a couple).

I have witness plenty of abusive relationshipsd and it is often a two-way street. If he was beating a 1340 pould woman id be first in line to say hes an asshole and should be in jail but you dont know what you are talking about.

You can call me descpicale or insulting or whatever you want but it is your moralizing and demonizing of one player that I am making fun of. I find it insulting andf a bunch of other things too.

by casejud on Jun 23, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Welcome Back

I’m with Galt though. It’s still way too early to tell if this is nothing but a brief hot streak or not. The strikeouts are way too high. I actually have a bigger problem with Jupton at #9. :) So when are you going to finish your 1B prospects? Still waiting for the next draft 2 months later. ;)

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 22, 2008 3:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ha.

it may be a hot streak in that he probably won’t just hit like this forever from here on out. he’s still basically a rookie, in terms of experience if not technically. but i definitely don’t think it’s just a fluke.

upton is striking out more than dukes is. of course he’s younger – but dukes has also cut his K rate by about a third this month against the awful may. i think his K rate is still in development like everything else.

...

in all honesty i’m not sure i’m back. i’m kind of transitioning away from a prospect economy more towards oil and gas exploration. elijah just made me think of you guys.

by wily mo on Jun 22, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey

I’m hip deep in the fire and ambulance economy and you don’t see me quitting anytime soon. ;) If and when you get around to the 1Bs, don’t forget to add Logan Morrison and the half dozen college 1Bs that got drafted this year. :)

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 22, 2008 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good to "hear" ya anyways

Feel free to pop in when you get time. Dont let the “abuse” get ya down :-)

by casejud on Jun 22, 2008 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WAAAYYY too early

Dukes was 0-for-5 last night. I told you he’d never pan out.

See how silly that sounds wily mo? I was one of the louder ones claiming he’s probably destined for nada. I agree with the poster above who says the Bradley comp is ridiculous. I think someone like Lawrence Phillips or Pacman Jones are much better comps.

As far as the improved k rate and how much I like his moderate ability to take a walk, it doesn’t mean much to me. There’s no question in my mind he’s got the ability to continue to improve by leaps and bounds in short amounts of time. The problem is I (and many others) don’t think he’s going to be stable enough to stay around.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Jun 22, 2008 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wily Mo

is the new Bravesin07

by Galt on Jun 22, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nah.

i don’t post enough.

by wily mo on Jun 22, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wayyy too early for what?

Dukes was 0-for-5 last night. I told you he’d never pan out.
See how silly that sounds wily mo?

what did i say that you’re debating? dukes at 15 is looking better these days than it used to; people wrote him off too fast last year; see what happens next week. that’s all i said.

by wily mo on Jun 22, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so you are saying

that if you re-did that list, you’d still have Dukes in the top 15? I couldn’t imagine him in the top 30, and probably wouldn’t have him in the top 50.

Which is exactly what I would have said (and did) two years ago.

by Galt on Jun 22, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

probably.

i started to re-rank the list based on current knowledge in order to post it as a comment here but got distracted. i’d have to do that to be sure, but i think i’d probably still have him about the same place i had him before. as i’ve noted now and then, i wasn’t actually one of the people who voted for him in that poll, but i would have had him probably 20-25 (top 10 on talent, bumped down that far on issues). opinion hasn’t changed much since, same as you.

by wily mo on Jun 22, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you look at that list,

Virtually nobody has had success yet in the major leagues. I mean, you could say Delmon Young or Alex Gordon or Matt Garza, but the 1st person on the list who is already an above average major league is Tulowitzki at number 12. After that, you have Jay Bruce at 13, and Lincecum at 20, and then Gallardo at 22 and Braun at 25. In other words, 5 of the top 25 are currently above average major leaguers, and the value of the other 20 of 25 are basically in terms of potential. I’m not saying that Dukes is at the top of that list or even should be in the list, but I don’t think he was a terrible idea, then or now, in the top 15 or 25

by OldProspects on Jun 22, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you want to bet ?

I am totally serious.

I am totally sick of this. The fact that you don’t like Dukes because he represents something to you that Phillips, Pac-Man, blah, blah, blah do has NOTHING to do with his progress as a baseball player as long as he stays out of trouble. Further more YOU DONT EVEN KNOW THE DUDE!

Last point and the most important since i dont either is…

You are going to be wrong and Im willing to bet you. Elijah has i would say about a 86 -90 percent chance of having a damn good basebnall career. If crazy Gary Sheffield, Albert Belle, Ken Caminti ( yes there are some crazy WHITE dudes fellas…shocking I know), Eric Show, Rod Beck, etc can do it…so can he.

Sorry for being hostile but I get tired of it. Dukes has played as well as any of the guys rated higher than him on that list among the hitters.

by casejud on Jun 23, 2008 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

“Phillips, Pac-Man, blah, blah, blah do has NOTHING to do with his progress as a baseball player as long as he stays out of trouble.”

I completely agree. As long as he stays out of trouble. I just don’t he will is where the difference is.

” Elijah has i would say about a 86 -90 percent chance of having a damn good basebnall career. “

Wow. You can nail down to one percentage point. Now that is truely amazing.

”...Ken Caminti ( yes there are some crazy WHITE dudes fellas…shocking I know), “

I almost put Ryan Leaf in there and now wish I would of. The race card. Don’t leave home without it.

I’m not going to sit here and re-hash all of the Dukes arguement from the past. All I was saying is that is it’s too early to say “told ya so” and that goes for both sides. It’s going to possibly be years, not days and months.

by slurve on Jun 23, 2008 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i miss flamewars.

I'll warm up with you anytime

by ufoboy90 on Jun 22, 2008 2:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

lol

Great stuff…lol. I kinda hate em but I LOVE a spirited argument with a little anger added to it. Its kinda fun to be passionate about something even if it is as insigificant as a baseball player.

by casejud on Jun 23, 2008 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dukes is treading water

But not in a bad way. A lot of the other guys on that list are, too. Way too early to say that Dukes will have justified a top-15, but we also can’t say that anything has surfaced in his skill set to make him less than we though he was. Does he still appear to have the talent to have a 20HR, .380/.480 bat with strong defense? Yes.

A few guys have certainly leapfrogged him in the last year and a half. But several other guys in his cluster are also just treading water, and some appear to now have much larger question marks (Homer Bailey?).

It’s hard for me to accept that his .740 OPS is indicative of his talent, given that we all know he’s bounced around with other problems and that time on task is what young hitters need to have to improve.

Of course, that means it all just boils back down to whether his mental state will let him stay in the lineup. In that sense, we’re all on hold.

by siddfynch on Jun 22, 2008 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Boy, I dunno about that Sidd

After looking at that list a little more, I might say Dukes has slipped on talent alone.

ORIGINALLY ABOVE DUKES, BUT FALLING:
D. Young (the 2nd)
Wood
Bailey
and maybe Brignac, with Maybin and Hughes still incomplete

ORIGINALLY BELOW DUKES, BUT NOW CLEARLY ABOVE HIM
Longoria
Lincecum
Gallardo
Braun
Kershaw
Pence
Votto
Buchholz
Joba

plus a bunch of other guys who either 1) still haven’t reached the majors, but look like they sure could be better than Dukes (Snider, Rasmus, or 2) are in the majors and are looking promising (Salty, Danks, Iannetta, Loney, etc.).

I’d say unless Dukes picks it up soon, he’ll be outside the top-50 from that year.

by siddfynch on Jun 22, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

link

for the list?

by pedrophile on Jun 22, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

link for the list.

it’s in the diary. here’s my shot at it – very rough, 15-minute job, puts him at 19, or probably more accurate to say the 15-25 range – there’s something for everyone to quibble with here, of course.

25. Ryan Braun, 3B (MIL)
  20. Tim Lincecum, RHP (SF)

09. Justin Upton, OF (ARI)
  13. Jay Bruce, OF (CIN)

12. Troy Tulowitzki, SS (COL)
  08. Chris Young, OF (ARI)
  19. Evan Longoria, 3B (TB)
  22. Yovani Gallardo, RHP (MIL)
  41. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF (BOS)
  80. Joba Chamberlain, RHP (NYY)
  32. James Loney, 1B (LAD)
  35. Joey Votto, 1B (CIN)
  72. Dustin Pedroia, 2B (BOS)
  29. Clayton Kershaw, LHP (LAD)
  61. Clay Buchholz, RHP (BOS)
  81. Jonathan Sanchez, LHP (SF)
  33. Hunter Pence, OF (HOU)
  48. John Danks, SP (CHW)

15. Elijah Dukes, OF (TB)
  10. Matt Garza, RHP (MIN)
  62. Carlos Gomez, OF (NYM)
  01. Alex Gordon, 3B (KC)
  47. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C (ATL)
  59. Jeff Clement, C (SEA)
  02. Delmon Young, OF (TB)
  98. Kurt Suzuki, C (OAK)

21. Mike Pelfrey, RHP (NYM)
  06. Billy Butler, OF (KC)
   30. Adam Jones, OF (SEA)
  11. Andy LaRoche, 3B (LAD)
  57. Kevin Slowey, RHP (MIN)
  23. Andrew Miller, LHP (DET)
  38. Daric Barton, 1B (OAK)
  43. Chris Iannetta, C (COL)
  03. Philip Hughes, RHP (NYY)
  86. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP (COL)
  28. Luke Hochevar, RHP (KC)
  52. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B (SD)
  40. Adam Lind, OF/DH (TOR)
  95. Blake DeWitt, 2B (LAD)
  67. Travis Buck, OF (OAK)
  55. Ryan Sweeney, OF (CHW)

16. Andrew McCutchen, OF (PIT)
  07. Cameron Maybin, OF (DET)
  50. Travis Snider, OF (TOR)
  36. Colby Rasmus, OF (STL)
  05. Homer Bailey, RHP (CIN)
  46. Ian Stewart, 3B (COL)
  74. Erick Aybar, SS (LAA)
  58. Jacob McGee, LHP (TB)
  17. Carlos Gonzalez, OF (ARI)
  75. Miguel Montero, C (ARI)
  63. Elvis Andrus, SS (ATL)
  27. Fernando Martinez, OF (NYM)
  68. Dexter Fowler, OF (COL)
  45. Josh Fields, 3B (CHW)

96. Jaime Garcia, LHP (STL)
 78. Giovany Gonzalez, LHP (CHW)
  71. Carlos Carrasco, RHP (PHI)
  77. Michael Bowden, RHP (BOS)
  66. Wade Davis, RHP (TB)
  87. Chris Volstad, RHP (FLA)
  94. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP (TB)

51. Franklin Morales, LHP (COL)
  42. Felix Pie, OF (CHC)
  34. Nick Adenhart, RHP (ANA)
  37. Jeff Niemann, RHP (TB)
  44. Phil Humper, RHP (NYM)
  31. Jason Hirsh, RHP (COL)
  53. Eric Hurley, RHP (TEX)
  04. Brandon Wood, SS (ANA)
  14. Reid Brignac, SS (TB)
  18. Adam Miller, RHP (CLE)
  39. Brandon Erbe, RHP (BAL)
  24. Jose Tabata, OF (NYY)
  49. Billy Rowell, 3B (BAL)
  54. Chuck Lofgren, LHP (CLE)
  64. Donald Veal, LHP (CHC)
  65. Joel Guzman, 3B (TB)
   69. Will Inman, RHP (MIL)
  70. Chris Parmelee, 1B/OF (MIN)
  73. Chris Lubanski, OF, (KC)
  76. Eric Campbell, 3B (ATL)
  79. Trevor Crowe, OF (CLE)
  82. Brad Lincoln, RHP (PIT)
  83. Dellin Betances, RHP (NYY)
  84. Eric Patterson, 2B (CHC)
  85. Brandon Morrow, RHP (SEA)
  88. Deolis Guerra, RHP (NYM)
  89. Glen Perkins, LHP (MIN)
  90. Nolan Reimold, OF (BAL)
  91. Anthony Swarzak, RHP (MIN)
  92. Hank Conger, C (LAA)
  93. Sean West, LHP (FLA)
  97. Cesar Carrillo, RHP (SD)
  99. Matt Sulentic, OF (OAK)
 100. Brent Lillibridge, SS (ATL)
  26. Scott Elbert, LHP (LAD)
  56. Humberto Sanchez, RHP (NYY)
  60. Troy Patton, LHP (HOU)

by wily mo on Jun 22, 2008 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

whoa!

maybe should have previewed that one. wtf

by wily mo on Jun 22, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

try again.

with some extremely general categories.

(established stars)
25. Ryan Braun, 3B (MIL)
20. Tim Lincecum, RHP (SF)

(not established, but superstar upside + good vibe)
09. Justin Upton, OF (ARI)
13. Jay Bruce, OF (CIN)

(established solid players + up-and-coming possible stars)
12. Troy Tulowitzki, SS (COL)
08. Chris Young, OF (ARI)
19. Evan Longoria, 3B (TB)
22. Yovani Gallardo, RHP (MIL)
41. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF (BOS)
80. Joba Chamberlain, RHP (NYY)
32. James Loney, 1B (LAD)
35. Joey Votto, 1B (CIN)
72. Dustin Pedroia, 2B (BOS)
29. Clayton Kershaw, LHP (LAD)
61. Clay Buchholz, RHP (BOS)
81. Jonathan Sanchez, LHP (SF)
33. Hunter Pence, OF (HOU)
48. John Danks, SP (CHW)

(not fully established yet but good trends or upside)
15. Elijah Dukes, OF (TB)
10. Matt Garza, RHP (MIN)
62. Carlos Gomez, OF (NYM)
01. Alex Gordon, 3B (KC)
47. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C (ATL)
59. Jeff Clement, C (SEA)
21. Mike Pelfrey, RHP (NYM)
02. Delmon Young, OF (TB)
98. Kurt Suzuki, C (OAK)

(holding tank)
06. Billy Butler, OF (KC)
30. Adam Jones, OF (SEA)
11. Andy LaRoche, 3B (LAD)
57. Kevin Slowey, RHP (MIN)
23. Andrew Miller, LHP (DET)
38. Daric Barton, 1B (OAK)
43. Chris Iannetta, C (COL)
03. Philip Hughes, RHP (NYY)
86. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP (COL)
28. Luke Hochevar, RHP (KC)
52. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B (SD)
40. Adam Lind, OF/DH (TOR)
95. Blake DeWitt, 2B (LAD)
67. Travis Buck, OF (OAK)
55. Ryan Sweeney, OF (CHW)

(top minor leaguers)
16. Andrew McCutchen, OF (PIT)
07. Cameron Maybin, OF (DET)
50. Travis Snider, OF (TOR)
36. Colby Rasmus, OF (STL)
05. Homer Bailey, RHP (CIN)
46. Ian Stewart, 3B (COL)
74. Erick Aybar, SS (LAA)
58. Jacob McGee, LHP (TB)
17. Carlos Gonzalez, OF (ARI)
75. Miguel Montero, C (ARI)
63. Elvis Andrus, SS (ATL)
27. Fernando Martinez, OF (NYM)
68. Dexter Fowler, OF (COL)
45. Josh Fields, 3B (CHW)

(active pitching prospects, minors)
96. Jaime Garcia, LHP (STL)
78. Giovany Gonzalez, LHP (CHW)
71. Carlos Carrasco, RHP (PHI)
77. Michael Bowden, RHP (BOS)
66. Wade Davis, RHP (TB)
87. Chris Volstad, RHP (FLA)
94. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP (TB)

(other)
51. Franklin Morales, LHP (COL)
42. Felix Pie, OF (CHC)
34. Nick Adenhart, RHP (ANA)
37. Jeff Niemann, RHP (TB)
44. Phil Humper, RHP (NYM)
31. Jason Hirsh, RHP (COL)
53. Eric Hurley, RHP (TEX)
04. Brandon Wood, SS (ANA)
14. Reid Brignac, SS (TB)
18. Adam Miller, RHP (CLE)
39. Brandon Erbe, RHP (BAL)
24. Jose Tabata, OF (NYY)
49. Billy Rowell, 3B (BAL)
54. Chuck Lofgren, LHP (CLE)
64. Donald Veal, LHP (CHC)
65. Joel Guzman, 3B (TB)
69. Will Inman, RHP (MIL)
70. Chris Parmelee, 1B/OF (MIN)
73. Chris Lubanski, OF, (KC)
76. Eric Campbell, 3B (ATL)
79. Trevor Crowe, OF (CLE)
82. Brad Lincoln, RHP (PIT)
83. Dellin Betances, RHP (NYY)
84. Eric Patterson, 2B (CHC)
85. Brandon Morrow, RHP (SEA)
88. Deolis Guerra, RHP (NYM)
89. Glen Perkins, LHP (MIN)
90. Nolan Reimold, OF (BAL)
91. Anthony Swarzak, RHP (MIN)
92. Hank Conger, C (LAA)
93. Sean West, LHP (FLA)
97. Cesar Carrillo, RHP (SD)
99. Matt Sulentic, OF (OAK)
100. Brent Lillibridge, SS (ATL)
26. Scott Elbert, LHP (LAD)
56. Humberto Sanchez, RHP (NYY)
60. Troy Patton, LHP (HOU)

by wily mo on Jun 22, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kouz

I think you categorized Kouz wrong. I would put him in the “established solid players + up-and-coming possible stars” list. Brandon Morrow is another player I would put into that group. MOst here don’t like how Morrow is being used, but he is still a very effective RP. His numbers after the ASB last year hurt his overall career numbers, but he has been awesome this year.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jun 22, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd add Garza, Gordon, and Young to that list as well

And I don’t think Slowey and Adam Jones are very far away from being distinctly ahead of Dukes. That would put Dukes in the top 25-30 or so, which is probably about where he should be

by OldProspects on Jun 22, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't know

gordon now has a .738 or so OPS over a year and a half of full-time play. i’ve heard that a .740 OPS is bad.

by wily mo on Jun 22, 2008 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hahaha

Point taken on Dukes (though I never claimed he did badly). There is a difference, though, between doing it over 350 ABs and over 800, especially considering the drama that Dukes incurred. I think Gordon has established himself as a solid player – Dukes hasn’t yet

by OldProspects on Jun 22, 2008 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dunno

i tend to go the opposite way. .740-.750 OPS over the long term isn’t cutting it for a guy that was supposed to be a top-tier corner bat prospect. not that gordon can’t improve, but if he doesn’t it’ll be a pretty big letdown. dukes has produced close to the same number, but over less time, and with more interesting trends in the sample, as i spelled out in my reply to galt. maybe i’m just a sucker for door #2, but i prefer the smaller, higher-variance profile.

that said, the preference is pretty slight.

by wily mo on Jun 22, 2008 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Being generous dude

It is actually HARDER to perform well iwith intermitant play. I wouldn’t say Dukes has proven more than Gordon but Gordon is closer to proving that he ISNT going to be as big a star as people projected for him.

Its getting kind of hard for people who had Gordon at #1 and are Dukes Haters to jibe thier rationale. They are either an idiot for rating Gordon so high or juyst delusional about Dukes.

The “great” thing about these “fearers of the angry negro” is that they can STILL argue that a player wasnt good because they dont like him even after he becaomes a great player like say, Albert Belle. Life ain’t fair but at least I hate the un-objective or un-reasonable person. Its my only revenge :-)

by casejud on Jun 23, 2008 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gordon, Stewart, and LaRoche

Man, remember when those three were the “big” 3B prospects at the top of the list? Thus far, only one has played significant time in the majors (with poor results), and the other two have been dealing with other problems in the minors (injuries, splits). Meanwhile, Ryan Braun (who was clearly behind them by concensus at the time) is already a star with the bat.

Shows what we know…

by mraver on Jun 23, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Personally...

I think it looks like Young may be on his way to “bust” unless he turns it around. He is hitting more like a 3rd OF right now, and he is regressing rather than progressing. It’s still early, and I admit that. I just don’t think I would put him in any sort of “solid regular” group yet. I’d put him in the Holding Tank. Adam Jones too. Although this is his first full year in the majors, so I give him more of a pass for now (never had that great of a feeling about him anyways).

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jun 22, 2008 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

kouz is hard to categorize. i don’t think he’s going to be a star. his numbers really aren’t all that hot this year. i think of him as an established fringe player, which i didn’t make a whole category for. i ranked him about where i’d rank him, it’s just that the players around him there aren’t similar to him at all.

not pulling morrow out of the slag heap was just a mistake on my part. but i don’t think i’d put him ahead of dukes. my preference for hitters over pitchers extends well beyond the dukes question, and specifically in the case of morrow i don’t trust the arm health at all.

by wily mo on Jun 22, 2008 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

I don’t think I would put Morrow over Dukes either (depending on where you rank Dukes), my comment more had to do with the group you put Morrow in, rather than a numbered ranking.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jun 22, 2008 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i was thinking

knowing what we know now, given that one of the central dukes-at-15 denouncers turned out to be a certain person with certain proclivities. and the fact that dukes won on a tester, after nobody had asked for him, and that even i, one of the central dukes supporters, didn’t vote for him. i almost wonder if that poll wasn’t rigged by the same person, with the specific intent of using it to denounce us all.

i mean, probably, not, right. but can you really rule it out?

by wily mo on Jun 22, 2008 5:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No

I thought it was strange at the time. As far as I can remeber Dukes was largely a hated player at the time.

The irony is that if a true counting would have put him at, what 50 or something, that the rigged viote may turn out to be more accurate…lol

Not that surprising that of a list. Not one of our finest documents of talent evaluatin’ we’ve had as a group on here I wouldn’t think.

by casejud on Jun 23, 2008 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dukes at 15 is fine

If you go solely by talent he was top 5. The question was always how much his very serious problems would affect him?

He could be rated anywhere from 5 to unrated. Any of which would be a fair assessment. None of us are qualified to really know how it will pan out. It’s more of a guess on psych than on baseball IMO. And that is all it is, a guess.

I found it funny the tools saying the list was junk because Dukes was there. The whole list is just a guessing game.

by pedrophile on Jun 22, 2008 5:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1 to the last sentence

I pretty much ignore anyone who says they write off the entire list because of the placement of one person. It’s enough of a crapshoot in the first place that one person too high or low does not invalidate a list – if you’re shooting for that kind of accuracy, you’re probably a little naive.

by siddfynch on Jun 22, 2008 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe we should be comparing him to Josh hamilton anyway

An unbelievably talented player who will probably not amount to much, but one of these days could be a star.

by OldProspects on Jun 22, 2008 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hamilton

Hamilton was a MUCH better talent then Dukes. He screamed 5 tools that made scouts drool. Dukes was a good prospect, but not really in the same league of Hamilton.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 22, 2008 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs