John's Mock Draft

by John Sickels on Jun 2, 2008 4:16 PM EDT

Here is my pseudo-prediction for the first round of the draft. I'm trying to find the right balance between known team interest in these players, past organizational philosophy, and both best-player-avaialble and team needs. I'll push this to the supplemental round and see how things to.

1) Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: Seems like the most logical pick to me.
2) Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: Pirates prove they are willing to spend $$.
3) Royals: Buster Posey, C, Florida State: Royals opt for close-to-ready bat.
4) Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: Can't pass him up.
5) Giants: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Excellent bat, close to ready.
6) Marlins: Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: The rumors make sense to me.
7) Reds: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: Best player available.
8) White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: System thin on hitting could use him.
9) Nationals: Aaron Hicks, RHP, California HS: Nats decide he's a pitcher.
10) Astros: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: Astros opt for "safe" college pitcher.
11) Rangers: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS: Rangers shell out big bucks.
12) Athletics: Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona State: Classic Oakland pick.
13) Cardinals: Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS: Cards opt for high-quality local talent.
14) Twins: Brett Lawrie, INF, Canada HS: Twins pick cold-weather bat, hoping for another Morneau and worried that he won't last to 27..
15) Dodgers: Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS: Best high school pitcher still on board tempts Dodgers; he fits their mold.
16) Brewers: Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia: Should help in the majors quickly.
17) Blue Jays: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami: Would be a steal at this slot and I think he's got a good chance to fall here.
18) Mets: Jason Castro, C, Stanford: Should reach the majors quickly, solid all-around.
19) Cubs: Casey Kelly, SS, Florida HS: Cubs will pay the premium.
20) Mariners: Anthony Hewitt, INF, Connecticut HS: Mariners can't resist his tools.
21) Tigers: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane: Tigers feel they receive a steal here.
22) Mets: Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU: Mets opt for another safe, affordable pick to pair with Castro.
23) Padres: Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona: Will get a chance to start but ends up in bullpen eventually.
24) Phillies: Zach Collier, OF, California HS: He's toolsy like the Phils like, and not quite as raw as some they have drafted in the past.
25) Rockies: Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Illinois HS: Rockies have a known interest in him.
26) Diamondbacks: Gerrit Cole, RHP, California HS: Arizona can't resist his arm strength at this slot.
27) Twins: Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State: Twins opt for gritty midwest option to help third base situation.
28) Yankees: Brett Devall, LHP, Florida HS: Money not an object, Yanks take projectable lefty.
29) Indians: Chris Carpenter, RHP, Kent State: Sneaks into first round on arm strength and affordability.
30) Red Sox: Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina: Fits their philosophy well and they are known to love him.

SUPPLEMENTAL ROUND
31) Twins: Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami: pairs nicely with Gillaspie in future Twins infield.
32) Brewers: Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana: live arm lefty can't be resisted.
33) Mets: Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State: Mets pick up third college pick, Davis is a potential steal here.
34) Phillies: Mike Montgomery, LHP, California HS: pairs with Collier to provide two fine California preps.
35) Brewers: Tyler Stovall, LHP, Alabama HS: young pitcher to mix with two college guys ahead of him.
36) Royals: Tyler Sample, RHP, Colorado HS: Royals return to recent high school orientation with this pick.
37) Giants: Isaac Galloway, OF, California HS: Giants can't resist toolsy athlete.
38) Astros: Ross Seaton, RHP, Texas HS: Astros snare local talent.
39) Cardinals: Dan Schlereth, LHP, Arizona: Successful college pitcher with high strikeout rate attracts Cardinals.
40) Braves: Zeke Spruill, RHP, Georgia HS: Perfect fit for Braves.
41) Cubs: Robbie Ross, LHP, Kentucky HS: Young lefty arm proves hard to resist.
42) Padres: Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest: Local guy, good track record hitting well for a weak college team.
43) Diamondbacks: David Cooper, 1B, California: D-backs can't believe he falls this far but he does.
44) Yankees: Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Arizona HS: Combines with DeVall to give Yanks two young lefties, if they spend the money to sign them.
45) Red Sox: Scott Gorgen, RHP, UC Irvine: Statheads would love this pick.
46) Padres: Tim Murphy, LHP, UCLA: Like Perry, he gets a chance to start but ends up in bullpen eventually.

0 recs | Comment 48 comments

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Comments

nice job

obviously it is tough to see Hunt and Alsono fall that far but SOMEONE has to drop.

http://mvn.com/mlb-draft/

by jsmall404 on Jun 2, 2008 5:22 PM EDT 0 recs

Hicks

John – What are your thoughts about the rumors that Hicks is telling teams that he is done with pitching and only wants to be drafted as an OF?

by NFA Brian on Jun 2, 2008 5:22 PM EDT 0 recs

hicks

no clue. if true, he may change his mind if he can’t hit breaking stuff in A-ball.

by John Sickels on Jun 2, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

If that's the case ...

is that a gamble worth taking for the Nationals at #9?

by NFA Brian on Jun 2, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

Rays

If the Rays pick Beckham, does this mean a potential move to 2b for Brignac?

by Rupert Pupkin on Jun 2, 2008 5:37 PM EDT 0 recs

Probably not

Beckham would likely be at least 3 years in the minors before making a move to the big leagues. Brignac will likely be starting next season and if he establishes himself over those 3 seasons I wouldn’t be suprised to see Beckham cover second until Brignac is either traded or leaves as a free agent.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 2, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

??

Beckham projects to be a much better defender than Brignac.
Obviously that is a long way down the road though.

by jsmall404 on Jun 2, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Long way down the road

That is my point. There is no reason to move Brignac off short when you consider how long down the road it would be before Beckham is ready.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 3, 2008 12:38 AM EDT up 0 recs

Hosmer

Would be so incredibly delicious. I just can’t see him dropping that far, though, and even so I’m not all that confident in Hicks’ willingness to shell out big money.

Hard Drive Manufacturer Hires Barkley

by BudLight on Jun 2, 2008 5:51 PM EDT 0 recs

Hosmer

could fall with a 7 million tag that Boras is proposing

Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.

by kcscoliny on Jun 2, 2008 11:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yankees' draft

I would throw something at the TV if that was our actual draft. I’d rather take Davis or even Dykstra at 28 than DeVall (though that would admittedly be an overdraft).

--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias) "Whatever the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve."--Napoleon Hall

by bobbymcnally on Jun 2, 2008 6:14 PM EDT 0 recs

Whats wrong with DeVall?

by threesixteen on Jun 2, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Injured pitchers

Several guys out there have fallen off the board due to injuries at one point or another this year for injury reasons more than anything else – how far do you see Cole St Clair, Brett Hunter, and Tanner Scheppers dropping? I was wondering if Scheppers would show up on your Supp picks, but he is gone completely…

by JBImaknee on Jun 2, 2008 6:16 PM EDT 0 recs

I don't get it...

I know most teams try to take a best available type approach, but I don’t see why you do that when it means you draft the position you are already strongest at.

The Giants have one real good hitting prospect, and unless I am remembering wrong, he was moved to 1B. You have 7 other hitting positions you can draft for, yet you take another 1B. If they take G. Beckham, then they have a 1B and a SS prospect who both should be in the majors within three years. Same with Kansas City. Buck and Olivo are both ending their time under team control, but why not take Beckham with that pick? They could put him in the majors in three weeks, and if he hits better than 190, he is already an improvement over anything else they have at SS. But, I would have to say I disagreed more with the Mock Draft selection that the Royals took. The last thing they need is another 1B.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jun 2, 2008 6:23 PM EDT 0 recs

I tend to disagree...

Considering the Giants situation, Smoak is a very good fit for them. Right now the Giants have some promising young starters and bullpen guys. It would not be a good idea to waste the talent of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, etc.

Smoak projects to be a hitter who will have an immediate impact and that could be a starting 1B by 2010 (if not earlier). Villalona is at least another 3 to 4 years away and is not a sure thing. With a player like Smoak that Giants could really start to build a solid lineup.

by Squire_Boone on Jun 3, 2008 1:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

i think the first 6

will be spot on… as much as i’d love to see the Rays take Posey… I think they are going Beckham

by daveh33 on Jun 2, 2008 6:38 PM EDT 0 recs

Brewers/Fields

I don’t think they’re gonna take him. Doug Melvin has given a couple quotes along the lines of “College relievers—sure seems like they don’t pan out much, eh?” Of course, knowing Jack Z, that could be intentional misinformation. I think that given your #1-15, they’d take Shooter Hunt. That may just be the part of me praying they don’t take another prep pitcher talking, though.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 2, 2008 7:16 PM EDT 0 recs

college closers

One would make sense for them possibly if they were actually in this thing to win it and could use one this year. With that said, they cant take the best player available with all the picks they have.

by jsmall404 on Jun 2, 2008 8:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

I long advocated taking Fields (or Cashner, or whomever)

But I really don’t think they will, regardless of how much sense it makes to us.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 3, 2008 12:59 AM EDT up 0 recs

Guess I was wrong about Hunt

Jim Callis sez the Brewers will be looking for:

Athletes (Zach Collier, Anthony Hewitt) or high-ceiling high school pitchers (Tim Melville, Ethan Martin).

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 3, 2008 1:15 AM EDT up 0 recs

no idea, just bored

are we allowed to put our guesses? If not, please delete this.

1. Tampa Bay – Tim Beckham.

At the end of the day, is Posey worth it at 1? I could see Alvarez, but Beckham’s skillset might be too good to pass up.

2. Pittsburgh – Pedro Alvarez.

Huntington needs to send a signal that it’s a new era. Doing this would be the shot across the bow.

3. Kansas City – Eric Hosmer.

If they feel Matusz is an ace caliber type, then maybe they opt that route. Otherwise, they need a power bat, and Hosmer’s potentially the best in the draft.

4. Baltimore – SP Brian Matusz

I would go Gordon Beckham, but I think there’s something to all the Matusz and Smoak talk. I think McPhail prioritizes pitching and will look for bats later.

5. San Francisco – C Buster Posey

I want to put Smoak here, but I think Posey would be too tempting to pass up considering the position.

6. Florida – C Kyle Skipworth

If a Smoak is available, would they change their minds?

7. Cincinnati – SP Aaron Crow

Still need some arms … considering Dusty will chew through them!

8. Chicago White Sox – 1st Justin Smoak

Kenny may think about Gordon Beckham here, but Smoak is too good to pass and could perhaps help them next year.

9. Washington Nationals – SS Gordon Beckham

They didn’t think he’d be available, and he falls into their lap.

10. Houston – SP Christian Friedrich

Makes sense. A pitcher that could move fast, and they need SP help.

11. Texas – P Andrew Cashner.

I don’t think it’s the right move, but I’ll bite on those rumors.

12. Oakland – IF Brett Wallace

Makes too much sense. Would probably try him at 3rd first.

13. St. Louis Cardinals – IF Brett Lawrie

Taking a blind stab here that Lawrie’s bat upside attracts, probably at 3rd. Is Martin or Melville worth it here?.

14. Minnesota Twins – SS Anthony Hewitt

Is he overrated? Probably.

15. Los Angeles Dodgers – SP Ethan Martin

Another top arm for the system.

16. Milwaukee – OF Aaron Hicks

I don’t know. Sounds as good as any other ideas.

17. Toronto – 1st Yonder Alonso

Makes sense and has great value.

18. New York Mets – P Josh Fields

Perhaps he can move quick?

19. Chicago Cubs – OF Zach Collier

Seems like the type of guy Wilken would draft.

20. Seattle Mariners – SP Tim Melville

Reminds me a bit of Chris Tillman.

21. Detroit Tigers – RHP Ryan Perry

Could he step into the pen sooner than later?

22. New York Mets – C Jason Castro

Thought David Cooper and Ike Davis here.

23. San Diego Padres – 2nd Jemile Weeks

Somewhat shooting from the hips here. With Antonelli’s down year, I wonder if they draft Weeks, and if Antonelli steps it up, consider Weeks for CF? Probably some dumb idea that floated into my head.

24. Philadelphia – SP Shooter Hunt

College arm that slides a bit.

25. Rockies – SP Jake Odorizzi

Seems like everyone is putting them together.

26. Diamondbacks – P Dan Schlereth

Did I say I know what I was doing?

27. Twins – P Kyle Lobstein

See above.

28. New York Yankees – SP Tanner Scheppers

Revisiting Brackmah?

29. Cleveland Indians – OF Ike Davis

They could use some bats.

30. Boston – SP Gerritt Cole

As much as they love Havens, if Cole falls, do they bite?

by toonsterwu on Jun 2, 2008 8:05 PM EDT 0 recs

crap forgot kelly

sorry for wasting space

by toonsterwu on Jun 2, 2008 8:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

dont think it was that bad

alonso isnt dropping that far though.

by jsmall404 on Jun 2, 2008 8:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

i think

by toonsterwu on Jun 2, 2008 9:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

crap i don't know how to edit stuff

anyhow, i think if smoak and hosmer both go high, then alonso goes higher. if one of smoak or hosmer falls, then i think there’s a chance alonso slips. who takes him in the teens? texas? unlikely. oakland? maybe. wallace’s value is somewhat helped by the potential to play 3rd, though. st. louis? doesn’t seem likely. minnesota? see st. louis. dodgers? not sold. brewers? do they go down this route?

by toonsterwu on Jun 2, 2008 9:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

If the Rangers pick Cashner

I’ll be the first to call for Daniels head.

by TRanger on Jun 2, 2008 8:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

Royals

BA and Mayo are both in agreement that Alvarez and Hosmer are at the top of their board, and I haven’t heard any credible report stating that KC has any interest in Posey.

I’d be willing to bet my left nut that the Royals don’t draft Posey if he’s available.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jun 2, 2008 8:54 PM EDT 0 recs

royals

I had heard Hosmer rumors as well but I wasn’t sure how much to credit them, and as far as I can tell, no one really knows anything. The Royals keep stuff close to the vest.. Let’s see what happens.

by John Sickels on Jun 2, 2008 9:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

one thing

One thing that might play into the Hosmer/Royals scenario is that the Royals and Boras seem to get along OK. But even so…Hosmer’s reported demands strike me as awfully high for a high school first baseman. Again…the only people who REALLY know aren’t posting on blogs, and at 48 hours out a lot of things can still change.

by John Sickels on Jun 2, 2008 9:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'd much rather see KC go with Hosmer or Smoak than Posey

Just not sold on Posey as the #3 overall pick. If Beckham and Alvarez are gone, go for the 1B talent than Posey. If Hosmer is top ranked talent – go for the best talent on the board. Feel the same way with Crow or Matusz. KC should go for the power bat over good college pitcher at #3. Crow or Matusz would be a great get at 7-10.

by daveyork on Jun 3, 2008 12:08 AM EDT up 0 recs

Those are rumored demands

Even Boras isn’t naive enough to think Hosmer is getting a $7 mill bonus plus an MLB contract. It’s his typical song and dance of asking for the world then settling for a slightly above average deal. I have no doubt that Hosmer will not sign until the last hour or so before the deadline, but I also have no doubt he will end up signing.

FYI, Keith Law is now also on record that KC is locked in on Hosmer at #3.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jun 3, 2008 9:47 AM EDT up 0 recs

hey eazy

have you heard anything on how they perceive the pitchers? just curious, because last i checked, the royals system hadn’t done that well this year, and you could use arms. That said, i’m thinking that they don’t view matusz or crow as locks, and likely go for a power bat.

whaddya think about the wacky ken r stuff btw on greinke? sure has gotten a lot of chatter on forums.

by toonsterwu on Jun 2, 2008 9:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

toon

As far as I can tell, like many teams they aren’t high on Crow and/or Matusz as potential aces, so they seem intent on taking a position player. In addition, they have a few pitching prospects in the upper minors that they are high on, namely Carlos Rosa, Daniel Cortes, and Blake Wood. Add them in with Greinke, Bannister, Hochevar, Davies, and Soria, and on the surface KC doesn’t really have a huge need for pitching right now (although you can never have enough).

As for Greinke, the Rosenthal report sounded like he had a deadline looming so he needed to come up with some filler. There haven’t been any reports or quotes, so it’s hard to give it too much thought. That said, for all we know Greinke has told Royals brass that he has no intention of signing an extension. In that case, trading him while he is cheap and his value is high may be the best strategy.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jun 2, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

any top 10 surprises?

here’s a question, everyone basically has the same 10-12 guys for the top 10 these days … could there be any surprises in the top 10?

i really can’t think of anyone, maybe brett lawrie … just curious what other folks thought

by toonsterwu on Jun 2, 2008 9:46 PM EDT 0 recs

my guess

if there is a surprise, I think someone will take a chance on one of the high-ceiling preps w/ momentum, such as Casey Kelly, Brett Lawrie, or Zach Collier. If I had to pick one, I’d guess a team would fall for Lawrie’s bat.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jun 2, 2008 10:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Keith Law recently projected Lawrie to go in the top 10

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 3, 2008 1:01 AM EDT up 0 recs

O's pick

I’d have to say I’d be a little disappointed if the O’s drafted Matusz. The organization is pretty well stocked with pitchers, not so much with hitters (Weiters is the only great prospect, Reimold and Rowell also have a chance but seem a little shakey). I was really hoping for a top college hitter such as Smoak or Gordan Beckham, that could move quickly through the system. But whatever the pick is I’ll trust in Joe Jordan to take the best available talent.

by edsachs1 on Jun 2, 2008 11:00 PM EDT 0 recs

O's

I actually said that on the last post. Unless they really are convinced that Matusz is the next big thing I dont see them going for a pitcher. A college bat that is close to the bigs makes the most sense. It seems like they have an identified prospect at every position but 1B and SS (Unless you like Snyder to man first)

by ADLC on Jun 2, 2008 11:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Cards

taking the HS arm so high would be a big departure for them. not that i wouldn’t be happy, but it would surprise me.

john, who’s your runner-up for the cards at #13?

by siddfynch on Jun 2, 2008 11:45 PM EDT 0 recs

Question for John

If the Rangers took Wallace at #11, and assuming your Top 10 is dead on, who do you see the A’s taking at #12?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 3, 2008 12:14 AM EDT 0 recs

Billy Beane too much of a contrarian

He will not draft Wallace (even though a perfect fit) just to be different.

It is in my mind his fatal flaw.

by novaoakland on Jun 3, 2008 2:37 AM EDT 0 recs

i could see another brett

i could see him go brett lawrie there for some reason …

by toonsterwu on Jun 3, 2008 3:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

Beane hates Canadians

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jun 3, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up 0 recs

Huh?

Yeah, he must hate that Harden guy.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 3, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

With all the strife Harden has caused Beane

I’d hate Canadians too

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Jun 3, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'm going on the record to say...

Beane will do something crazy this year he will draft top heavy in HS players.

by AthleticsReign on Jun 3, 2008 3:49 AM EDT 0 recs

Gerrit Cole

Was actually sitting with him at the Fullerton regional over the weekend. We were also sitting with a lot of the UCLA players that didnt dress. Cole seemed to get along realy well with the guys and seemed like he was also excited to play with them next year. I also know that he is signed up for UCLA orientation (something that other commits UCLA had that went in the 1st round did not do). Also, I think he is looking for top 5 money. Hopefully the signs are pointing to him at UCLA next year and not in the minors.

by PhillyBruin on Jun 4, 2008 2:25 AM EDT 0 recs

Padres picks

LOVE the pick of local kids in Dykstra and Tim Murphy who went to my high school. But I absolutely hate the pick of Perry. I would take Collier, Odorizzi, Cole, Weeks, or Davis over him.

by dmilesai on Jun 5, 2008 9:01 AM EDT 0 recs