Grady Sizemore - On pace for a HOF career?
by Ian Stewart on Jun 14, 2008 1:50 AM EDT
20 comments
Grady Sizemore blasted two more homers today, bringing his season total to a respectable sixteen. Only 25 years old, Sizemore's numbers are quite impressive. Thus far, he's hit 94 home runs. On pace for 39, I'd say Sizemore should hit about 35 this year, bringing him up to 113 total career home runs.
Now, I think Sizemore can play another ten seasons, which I think is very possible, considering he:
A) Loves the game.
B) Seems like a durable, versatile player. He's played 162 games his past two seasons.
Assuming he does play ten seasons more, and keeps up his 162 game average of 26 homers, that gives him 373 career home runs. I think he will hit over that a few seasons, giving him a very real chance of getting to 400 career home runs. As a CF, these numbers are pretty impressive. However, we all know 162 game averages are simply 162 game averages. The odds of Sizemore playing 162 games a year for ten more years is slim. He SHOULD however maintain his power and hit 300 at this pace. Also assuming he keeps up his pace of steals, which I know decline as one ages, he should get over 300 steals. Again, a very real shot at 300-300.
Another note, Sizemore's K:BB ratio is nearly 1:1, showing he IS improving in that field. Can he keep it up is the question, but he is a fantastic ballplayer.
Also, if Wedge moves Sizemore to the three slot assuming the Tribe can get a decent leadoff hitter, he could easily rake in 100+ RBI a season.
The question -- is Sizemore a future HOF'er? Does he have it in him? I personally think he is one of the most exciting players in the game.
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FWIW
Top 10 age-level comps on Baseball-Reference.com and how old they were in their final season.
Jack Clark (36)
Duke Snider (37)
Ellis Valentine (30)
Johnny Callison (34)
Gus Bell (35)
Del Ennis (34)
Chet Lemon (35)
Ben Grieve (29)
Greg Luzinski (33)
Barry Bonds (42)
And his top 10 PECOTA comps:
Ray Lankford (37)
Barry (42)
Bobby Murcer (37)
Lloyd Moseby (31)
Snider (37)
Fred Lynn (38)
Leon Durham (31)
David Justice (36)
Bobby Bonds (35)
Roger Maris (33)
One HOFer, one HOFer*, two not-quites and nobody else close. These are the guys who were literally on his pace.
In fairness, I don’t think this list entirely captures him. Sizemore is a better all-around offensive player than most of his comps—the only ones in his class as a base-stealer are the Bondses, Lloyd Moseby, Ray Lankford and Leon Durham (well, the young Leon Durham, the one PECOTA is looking at).
I also think he’s better with the glove than any of his comps, though some of them could more than hold their own in the field—for multiple-Gold-Glove-winners Bobby Bonds and Fred Lynn, it isn’t defense keeping them out of the HOF.
Sizemore is a terrific player and I’ll be interested to see how the next few years shake out for him. Based on his comps I would disagree that he’s on a Hall of Fame pace per se, but he could certainly change that.
by whichthat on Jun 14, 2008 8:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Response
Easiest answer: maybe.
If you’re going solely by projected production, then he’s fringy right now. He’s definitely going to need to play past age 35. And obviously he’s going to need to get lucky health-wise, although to his credit he’s done that so far.
by mrkupe on Jun 14, 2008 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No
the Hall of Really Good, not Hall of Fame yet. He is really good at pretty much everything, but I wouldn’t say he is on pace for the HOF yet.
He has good power, but he would ned to average almost 40 homers a year until he is 35 to hit 500 homers. I doubt he gets 500 homers
He would have to get over 200 hits for the next 11 years to get 3000 hits. I doubt he can gets 3000 hits.
He is a career .280 hitter and his average has dropped over the last couple of years. I doubt he could end his career as a .300 hitter with the amount of strikeouts he gets.
He would have to average about 40 steals a year until he is 35 to get 500 steals. Considering he has never gotten more than 33, I would say no way he gets to 500.
He plays great defense, but he isn’t on an Ozzie Smith type of level.
So I pretty much see him being very above average in everything, but I don’t see him reaching any of those milestone numbers that get you into the HOF. Can he get in if he keeps up this pace? Maybe, but he won’t be a sure thing. He is only 25, so there is really no way to tell now.
by nyy601 on Jun 14, 2008 6:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
way too early
Unless your name is Pujols or A-Rod you shouldn’t even start thinking about the HOF for a player until he is pushing 30. All of the projections are just that, and subject to injury, age or fluke. Especially for premier defensive positions like CF.
Just look at Andruw Jones. A significant;y better defender, fairly close offensively at the same age, and broke in at a younger age. Many thought he was a sure fire lock. On pace for 500HR, 1500RBI and 12+ gold gloves. And that was when he was 29 and had been playing for 10 years. Then he just collapsed, will probably be out of the game in a year or two, and no one thinks he has a shot.
So accept that Sizemore is a good young player, but hold off on his place in history until he has some.
by B_Agate on Jun 15, 2008 6:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
An exception...
“Unless your name is Pujols or A-Rod you shouldn’t even start thinking about the HOF for a player until he is pushing 30.”
Timmy Lincecum can already punch his ticket to Cooperstown. Or as it will be known by 2030, Lincetown.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on Jun 15, 2008 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And technically, of course
ARod is already past 30. (Which means it’s even rarer that you can think about the HoF at that age)
by OldProspects on Jun 15, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He said "on pace for"
Of course you can’t talk about Sizemore as a HOF lock. That doesn’t mean discussing the possibility can’t be interesting.
by DrunkIrish on Jun 15, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hall of Good
He is not on track to come anywhere close to the Hall of Fame in my opinion. To date he has never hit 30 homers, batted .300, or stole 40 bases. For an outfielder if you do not reach any of those marks I really doubt you would even be considered for the Hall of Fame.
Sizemore has the talent to reach those marks but until he does, I think we are reaching to even consider discussing him and the Hall of Fame in the same sentence.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 15, 2008 3:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There are 17 center fielders in the Hall Of Fame.
Only four, Dimaggio, Mays, Mantle, and Snider, hit 30 HRs before their age 25 season. Grady’s well on pace to do it this year (and hit 28 in his age 23 season). The 40 stolen bases isn’t worth addressing, because by all accounts Grady is a very good baserunner, and his solid totals and success rates show this. Mays is really the only one who can match Grady’s power/speed combination, though he clearly was a much more talented player.
So basically Grady’s not an inner-circle Hall of Famer, and I don’t think anyone’s arguing he might be. If he reached the majors a little earlier, he might have the chance of accumulating enough numbers to be a shoo-in when he’s done. At this point, Jim Edmonds (who is close, but shouldn’t make it, IMO) should be a good baseline for Grady. If he can end up with better career numbers than Edmonds (say 400 HR, 1500 R, 300 SBs—all of which he could have a solid shot at), he’ll have a decent case for the Hall when he’s all done.
by DrunkIrish on Jun 15, 2008 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
History counts
How many of those guys played in the dead ball era? Guys who played with Earl Averill and Ty Cobb would win homerun titles with amounts around 10 per season. Also, an overwhelming majority of the centrefielders had at least hit .300 by the time they were 25.
Sizemore is a very good player but his batting average is regressing due to his high strikeout totals. He will likely put together a very solid career but will never attain the status as a Hall of Fame player.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 15, 2008 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Contact Rate, BB:K trends
Grady’s contact rate is the best this year that it’s ever been, and his BB:K has improved every year he’s been in the league. Those and his rising HR/F say his batting average should be trending up this year. It’s not, because of a low BABIP. Another reason batting average is stupid.
Also, obviously not all of the center fielders in the Hall Of Fame played in the modern era. The point is, a players’ position matters. 500 HR and 3000 hits are milestones for left fielders and first basemen, not center fielders.
by DrunkIrish on Jun 16, 2008 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
look at Barry Bonds through age 25
You wouldn’t think he would sniff the HOF.
by Bravesin07 on Jun 15, 2008 8:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sizemore reminds me of Steve Finley, if he stays healthy he could produce better career numbers overall obviously (300/300 is not bad right), but i thought finley would have popped up in some of sizemore’s comps. some people talk like finley might eventually make it into the hall, so i could see it i guess
I wanted to adopt, but all the good looking babies were taken
by joeytothelimit on Jun 16, 2008 5:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If Steve Finley
gets into the HOF it would be the biggest joke ever.
by nyy601 on Jun 16, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
If guys like Raines and Murphy won’t make it, than Finley has no shot (nor should he).
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 16, 2008 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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