Controversial Prospect: Jed Lowrie

by John Sickels on Jun 13, 2008 9:14 PM EDT Comment 15 comments

We last looked at Jed Lowrie back in January. How are things going now?

Lowrie had a horrible spring training for the Red Sox and began the year in Pawtucket, going 4-for-25 (.160) in eight games. But slow starts are a familar pattern for Lawrie, and when the Sox promoted him to the majors to fill a roster whole in early April, he turned things around quickly, hitting .310/.340/.476 in 17 games for Boston. Sent back to Pawtucket to get regular playing time in late May, he's been on fire ever since, now hitting .313/.415/.490 in Triple-A despite the poor April numbers. All told, Triple-A and the majors combined, he's hitting .312/.406/.485 in 44 games.

Obviously I'm happy about this given how much I stuck my neck out with the grade. There are still questions about where he fits defensively, and we need to see how the rest of the season goes as the at-bats pile up. I still see the case for a logical Grade B+ but, as I said before, I went with the instinctual call on this one. We shall see how it pans out. I do think that a straight Grade B would be a bit too low given the quality of his bat.

On the defense issue, his major league numbers are interesting: he played error-less ball in the majors, In 10 games at third base, he posted a 2.86 RF9 vs. a league RF9 of 2.77. In four games at shortstop, he posted a 4.50 RF9 vs a league RF9 of 4.50. At second base he posted a 3.38 RF9 vs a 5.12 league RF9. Baseball Prospectus' fielding ratings have him average at second base and shortstop and above average at third base. The sample size is incredibly small, of course...but at least it's positive, and I found it interesting that his range factor was exactly league average at shortstop, which is exactly what the scouting reports say.

So...how good would Jed Lowrie be if he can hit .300/.375/.450 in the majors, while providing average range and above average reliability at shortstop?

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Comps?

I’ve heard a ton of different comps for him, from Guillen to Aaron Hill to Jeff Blauser (and even one Nomar, but I think that was just a sox biased thing)

by ADLC on Jun 14, 2008 11:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I made the Carlos Guillen comp

maybe others did as well but I haven’t heard them. It’s looking more and more appropriate too as far as comps go.

I always look at comps as a way to describe the skills of a player to somebody who hasn’t seen a player or doesnt know anything about them. Its rare when it matches up so well so far…switch-hitter…good average and eye…decent power…slow-footed but solid enough at Shortstop. I’ve always felt that Lowrie’s defense would not be an issue once he becomes a major league regular and his offense looks like it could be pretty close to Carlos. I hope so too because it is fun proving haters wrong and there have been many Lowrie haters on here and elsewhere….cough, cough, Kevin Goldstien, cough.

by casejud on Jun 16, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guillen

Lowrie’s minor-league walk rate is 50% higher than Guillen’s was.

Guillen had 44 SB in 1302 minor-league plate appearances, including 17 in 105 AB in Rookie league. Lowrie has 14 SB in 1393 minor-league plate appearances (and 11 CS).

Guillen was considered a fine defensive shortstop as a prospect.

Guillen’s a fast guy who has had frequent injuries and has learned to walk more. Lowrie is slower, and already knows how to draw lots of walks.

by BobbyMac on Jun 16, 2008 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

There are some DIS-Similarities as well…good points except I saw Guillen play coming up and he was never really fast actually. He was and is a SMART player but not fast.

by casejud on Jun 19, 2008 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Steals

One thing to point out as well is that Guillen had ALL of his steals in rookie and low A ball (30) his next 2 seasons he combined for 10 of them. He wasn’t, and isn’t, fast.

by casejud on Jun 19, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Michael Young with more walks

by Bravesin07 on Jun 14, 2008 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I know this was a small sample size....

... but I was at one of the game he played against the Tigers this year, and he looked like one of the slowest middle infielders Ive ever seen. Obviously what you’ve shown above, he has right around average range, but that game he looked far below average to me. He struggled to get to a few balls that I feel like he shouldnt have had any problem with. At the plate he hit into a double play that I feel like most players should have been able to beat out, and he didnt even make it close. It wasnt a hard hit ball and was turned pretty slowly, but it still beat him by 2 or 3 steps.

He certainly may have been nursing an injury or maybe just didnt play with his usual effort, but that game left a sour taste in my mouth.

I obviously dont have nearly as good an eye for this stuff as John or a lot of people, and his bat and eye certainly seem quite good, but I just thought I would share my observations.

The Red Sox certainly seem to have a couple solid bats in their middle infield cheap and for a good long time in Lowrie and Pedroia.

by grozzy on Jun 14, 2008 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jeter

“So…how good would Jed Lowrie be if he can hit .300/.375/.450 in the majors, while providing average range and above average reliability at shortstop?”

Well if Lowrie put up that line you basically just described Derek Jeter. I’m sure most people wouldn’t mind Jeter playing short for them.

by GoldenSpikes24 on Jun 14, 2008 2:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hall of Famer

I really don’t agree with that one. Lowrie doesn’t strike me as a similar player to the Yankee captain. Jeter is a future Hall of Famer. At the height of his powers, a typical Jeter season will look something like a 325+BA/390+OBP/480+SLG. That includes terrific base running which comes with 30ish steals annually at a very good clip. Jeter’s defense also includes a preternatural ability to make the “big play”, even if balls hit to his left gave rise to an inadvertant Michael Kay catchphrase and a subsequent internet meme. So, we see a hitter with roughly 45 more points of OPS who’d be doing it in less favorable circumstance, as a righty in Yankee Stadium.

Assuming he could stick at SS, as Mr. Sickels’ hypothesis states, that’d be an occasional all-star. However, I still don’t believe that Lowrie will be able to stick at the position due to a lack of speed. So, in general, I disagree with the comparison of Lowrie to Derek Jeter.

by GuyinNY on Jun 15, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Twice

The line you quote as a ‘typical’ Jeter season has only been accomplished 2 times by Jeter in his career. His career average is .316/.386/.460, which is pretty much the line that John quoted in the article. Jeters average season is better than the stated line by 16 points in batting average, 11points in OBP, and 10 points in SLG, so this extra 45 points of OPS your talking about is actually 21 points.
Jeter averages 22 steals a season, not 30ish. He has more seasons where he didn’t break 15 steals, than he has seasons where he got to 30. Lowrie doesn’t steal many bases.

As far as Jeter being hurt by Yankee stadium it couldn’t be further from the truth, Jeter isn’t a pull hitter, his approach sets up perfect for that stadium, he has benefitted quite a bit from the short porch in right.

I’m not saying Jed Lowrie is Derek Jeter. The statement was what would Lowrie be if he put up this line. ‘IF’ he put up a line like that it would make him much closer to being Derek Jeter than it would the below average player alot of people like to think Lowrie will be. Jeter is a really good player, but at the same time lets not act like its inconceivable that someone could put up his kind of numbers, minus of course all the ‘big plays, and being ‘clutch’ and all the other things that only Derek Jeter can do.

by GoldenSpikes24 on Jun 16, 2008 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jesus dude

Lowrie can’t stay at short because of speed?? In the same paragraph as discussing Jeter?? Lowrie couldn’t possibly be as bad at Short as jeter has been dude…could he?

I love Jeter, but he has been one of the poorest defensive SS in the league almost every season.

Lowrie may not play as long or as well with the bat as Jeter or become as legendary of a clutch player as Jeter but you don’t have a leg to stand on with the defense. Obviously you don’t have to be fast to be a good defensive player….Jeter is fast and terrible….Carlos Guillen is pretty slow and pretty decent, he WAS anyways.

by casejud on Jun 16, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Prime

It would seem to me that you missed my point on Jeter. I don’t think it behooves us to look at Jeter’s career line, as Captain Intangible seems to have entered his decline phase. I was referring to a typical Jeter season at the “peak of his powers” i.e. his prime. I would imagine his 1998-2000 and 2006 seasons all would qualify as seasons where Jeter has hit at least 325/390/480. I did overstate the “30ish” steals, and should have gone with “25ish”, if we’re splitting hairs. He does have 3 30+sb seasons. And, as you pointed out, Lowrie doesn’t steal many bases and I’m open to finding out whether or not he’s as good on the basepaths as Jeter.

Regarding the impact of Yankee Stadium, I would argue that it’s foolhardy to think that Jeter hasn’t changed his approach to accommodate his home park. Yes, Jeter does go the opposite way alot. However, I’d bet that if he’d been a member of the Red Sox, we’d talk about his incredible propensity for chipping shots off the Green Monster.

Finally, regarding Jeter’s defense, I fully acknowledged Jeter’s lack of range to his left. However, I do believe that a) defensive metrics are somewhat flawed (even UZR, PMR, and Dewan’s +/-) and b) Jeter’s glovework is buoyed by his ability to go back on balls, his range to his right, and his instincts. He’s never been anything more than average with the glove, and he’s certainly less than that now, but I don’t know that Lowrie will ever really even be that much.

So, considering Jeter’s superior offensive production (and remember that he was the best player in the AL in 1999 and 2006), and what amounts to no more than possibly equivalent defense to Jeter, I sincerely doubt Lowrie could really be considered a comparable player to Derek Jeter. Maybe a “poor man’s” Jeter, but not the genuine article.

by GuyinNY on Jun 16, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

John basically described an occasional all-star

I don’t know if that’s possible, especially considering he’s not the greatest shortstop.

by Daniel Berlyn on Jun 14, 2008 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hence my Michael Young comp

by Bravesin07 on Jun 14, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shortstop of the Future

Word has it Lowrie has worked very hard on his fielding, since it was the one consistent knock on him. If the Sox are willing to run Julio Lugo out there every day, I don’t think they’ll hesitate putting Lowrie out there and seeing how he does. Personally, I think he’s already a league-average defender at short, and given his work ethic, has potential to improve on that. The offense seems to speak for itself at this point. I predict he’ll be Boston’s starting shortstop out of spring training next year.

by sggut95 on Jun 15, 2008 5:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs