Controversial Prospect Update: Engel Beltre
by John Sickels on Jun 11, 2008 12:32 PM EDT
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In January we took at look at Engel Beltre, where I summarized the arguments pro and con against him and tried to explain my book grade. How is he doing now?
Beltre is hitting .278/.304/.407 with 12 doubles, 7 triples, 3 homers, 9 steals, 7 caught stealing, 5 walks, and 44 strikeouts in 270 at-bats for Clinton in the Midwest League. While there aren't a lot of homers yet, considering his age and the general pro-pitching nature of the Midwest League, that's not a crippling problem at this point. He's showing speed, but really needs to improve his stolen base success rate at higher levels. Plate discipline remains an issue. His strikeout rate is not bad at all, but his walk rate is unacceptably low. He doesn't need to be a walk machine, of course, but just 5 walks is far too few.
Other interesting numbers: he's hit .294 since May 1st with increased production after a slow start in April. He's killing right-handers, hitting .305/.325/.463, but is dreadful against lefties (.194/.239/.239 with 0 walks and 17 strikeouts in 67 at-bats). He struggles in the home park at Clinton (216/.240/.320) but crushes the ball on the road (.331/.358/.483). According to information I gathered on my last Burlington trip, local scouts are very impressed with his tools and ahtleticism, reports similar to last year in rookie ball.
So what do we make of all this? Beltre is performing very well in some areas and poorly in others. Plate discipline is an issue, although his strikeout rate is low and that's a good marker. Obviously he needs to improve against southpaws to avoid a platoon player label, but given his youth he has plenty of time to correct that.
Beltre remains very intriguing and I now regard the book grade as too low. I would give him a high-ceiling B- now I think....highly talented, improving his game, but still in need of much polish. If he maintains his May/June numbers he could get a Grade B by the end of the year from me.
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can we add Elvis Andrus to this discussion John?
As for Beltre, he has a high upside and is very young. If he puts it together in a few years, he is definitely a top 10 prospect in baseball if you ask me. Right now though, he looks very raw. I agree with all you have said.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
Engel/Gorkys
I wonder how much Gorkys Hernandez’s power development this year can be an avatar for one available path Beltre could take. The MWL can really mask power, especially for young guys who express it more as doubles than homers.
Beltre, this year, as an 18 year old: 278 | 304 | 407. In 270 at bats: 12 doubles, 7 triples, 3 homers, 5 walks, 44 strikeouts, 9 steals, 7 CS.
Beltre, spread out to 481 at bats: 21 doubles, 12 triples, 5 homers, 9 walks, 78 strikeouts, 16 steals, 12 CS.
Gorkys, last year, as a 19 year old: 293 | 344 | 391. In 481 at bats: 25 doubles, 5 triples, 4 homers, 36 walks, 69 strikeouts, 54 steals, 11 CS.
Gorkys, this year as a 20 year old in the Carolina league: 310 | 362 | 516.
I wonder if Beltre next year shows himself as a 300 | 330 | 550 guy in hi-A; that would be loosely following the same development curve that Gorkys has shown. As a 19 year old in hi-A with those numbers and his tools, I’m thinking that’s a top 20 prospect.
This is just loose speculation, but I think it’s certainly a possibility. I would grade Beltre as a B right now.
by gogotabata on Jun 11, 2008 7:43 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
beltre
i saw him twice this year and he’s very quick,
there is a lot to like in his swing and his body.
i was sitting next to blake beavan and a scout,
blake made a comment after beltre was CS that he seemed to get caught a lot,
and that hes fast but it takes him a bit to get into that speed.
so maybe he needs to refine his first steps and learn to get better jumps.
he seems like a definite above average 5 tool prospect though
hm?
i don’t get it.
can you explain?
by god allah star on Jun 12, 2008 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
didn't know
seemed like a very nice guy.
asked me about my road trip to clinton,
talked to me about beltre, listened to everything the scout had to say,
seemed to soak it in.
told me to hit him up if i come back and he’ll get me tickets.
by god allah star on Jun 13, 2008 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, he seems nice enough
I’m not knocking on him, I love the fire. But he’s very, very into himself.
Alot of the humor stems from some of his quotes to the local media around hetime he was drafted...
The best is the reference that his slider is the best he has ever seen.
I do have one request for you though, if and when you speak to Beaven, can you ask him about the changes he has done to his mechanics and the drop in his velocity.
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