FanPost

Top 58 Position Prospect Stockwatch

Here is the original list. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/4/3/389462/my-top-58-position-prospec

Here is the methedology. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/2/7/132252/7297

I should note that I am a big fan of sample size, so my opinions are going to be very fluid right now. At the end of the season, I will do more research and check the overall body of work for the players and have a complete list for you next April....after my fantasy draft.

I'll list the players with their old rating, then make a comment, then in some cases, I'll give an estimated new rating. If I do, that will be as of today, and not a guess as to what the rating will be heading into next season.

 

1. Jay Bruce, 2. Evan Longoria, 10.0-I'll lump these two together since they were so close at the top. Nothing has really changed with either of these guys. They both look like they have a very good chance to become superstars.

3. Colby Rasmus, 10.0-Giving him a straight ten was a little aggressive in the preseason. He was really boderline, and I tossed it on him to separate him from Maybin. Then I would have slid the pitchers in between Maybin and McCutchen. In reality, they were all very close for me at the begining of the season. He hasn't slipped much in my eyes, but since I overrated him heading into the season, I'd say he's down. New rating, 9.5.

4. Cameron Maybin, 9.5-I can say I'm more worried about Maybin now than I was heading into the season. That's not to say that his stock is down. He's hitting for more power at a higher level, which helps offset the extra Ks. still got a pretty high floor to go with his super high ceiling, and that's what this rating is all about. Overall, a disappointment, but not enough to lower his rating.

5. Andrew McCutchen, 9.5-His stock is definitely up. If I had to bet on who would be the #1 prospect heading into next year, McCutchen would be my guy. It's not that his stock is up that much. It's that he was very close to Maybin and Rasmus in my mind. The real issue with that bet would be the fact that McCutchen probably won't be eligible for prospect lists next season.

6. Andy LaRoche, 9.5-Hopefully he won't be eligible for these lists next year, because I'm getting sick of rating him. Injuries have held him back and allowed Blake Dewitt to catch, if not pass him. He's still got a good ceiling and he's still a good bet to produce when given the chance, so I can't see knocking him down from a performance perspective. It's starting to look more and more like he might deserve the label of injury prone, which would be a problem.

7. Daric Barton, 9.5-Nothing suprising here. He's young and struggling in his first big league season. He's already turned it around a little, but still has a ways to go, especially in the power department. His ceiling isn't super high, but he's young and already an average big league 1b, so I woudln't drop him at all.

8. Jeff Clement, 9.5-This was the softest 9.5 I gave out. He mashed AAA, struggled in the show, and had the organazation give up on him in the short term. It's looking more and more like he's going to be a 1b/dh in the Show which hurts his stock He'd still rate at least a 9.0 if he'd start now. New Rating, 9.0

9. Brandon Wood, 9.0-I rated him as a SS, and I still rate him as a SS. You put Mark Reynolds at short with passable to average defense, and that's a very very good player. He really needs to be traded ASAP, because as a 3B/UT, I am not as impressed.

10. Reid Brignac, 9.0-He's doing as good at AAA as he did at AA, plays a premium position, and will be big league ready when next year's list is released. His stock is definitely on the rise, as some of the risk is gone. There's still a lot of ways his career could turn out, but when you average it all out, this is an insanely valuable commoditiy. Only a few things need to brake his way for Brignac to be #1 on the list next season. New Rating, 9.5

11. Joey Votto, 12. Jacoby Ellsbury, 9.0-If you wrote the script, would it have turned out any different for these two? Both have a very narrow range of outcomes, mostly good, with medium ceilings. 

13. Carlos Gomez, 9.0-The second we got the extra information of him winning the starting CF job he moved up to a 9.5. That meant he was ready, and he hasn't disapointed. He's already an average big leaguer with a superstar ceiling. A straight 10.0 could be argued here.  New Rating, 9.5

14. Carlos Gonzalez, 9.0-Rated as a RF, I don't really think we underestimated him. There are a lot of directions that this could go in the long run. Still, his getting called up so quickly has to be a good sign even if he hadn't really warranted it based on his on field production. We're dealing with big tools and projection here, so the callup will definitely increase his value some. He'd be a boderline guy, but I'll leave him at 9.0 for now.

15. Chris Marrero, 9.0-When I rated him, I did as a guy that would be starting the season at AA. The fact that he wasn't good enough in spring to get that promotion and the fact that his indicators are basically the same equals a downgrade. I still like his ceiling with his combination of power/contact, but he's furthur away than I originally thought. He'll probably be a 9.0 on next year's list, but to warrant a 9.0 right now he'd need to have a 9.5 expectation. New Rating, 8.5

16. Jordan Schafer, 9.0-Busted for PED use and losing 50 games of development to suspension is going to hurt a players ratings. New Rating, 8.0.

17. Chin-Lung Hu, 9.0-Nothing has changed.Big league star with the glove, big time questions with the bat. He'll be an assest even if he doesn't hit, so he's got a very high floor.

18. Wladimir Balentien, 9.0-Going through a little bit of an adjustment period at the big league level, but still has the power potential and made decent enough contact in the minors.

19. Travis Snider, 8.5-He ended up being the guy getting the AA promotion. The Ks are in the really worried zone, but the power is excellent. What his rating is heading into next season is going to depend greatly on how the rest of this season plays out, but he could/should be one of the top ten prospects. New Rating, 9.0

20. Steven Pearce, 8.5-25 year olds that lose power and whiff more are in do or die mode. Pearce gets a little bit of a mulligan because he was a four year college player, but he really needs to assert himself in the second half or he'll fall completely off the radar. New Rating, 7.5

21. Matt LaPorta, 8.5-His bat is big league ready and the Brewers aren't moving back to the AL anytime soon. He's really wasting time in the minors, but there isn't a whole lot the Brewers can do. Should be in the top 10 next season. New Rating, 9.0

22. Ian Stewart, 8.5-Another guy that doesn't have anything left to do in the minors but is kind of stuck. If he could actually play 2b, that would be a huge boost to his value.

23. Fernando Martinez, 8.5-He's basically the same player he was last season. That means he's all projection and little performance, which is OK when you're 19, even if you are in AA.

24. Elvis Andrus, 8.5-Another player that an insane ceiling that makes up most of his value. He's a darkhorse to be the #1 prospect and could easily make the top 10. His K rate remained stable, although his walk rate dipped. Regardless, he's a very low risk player due to the speed and defense. Heck, he's probably a fringe starter at the big league level right now. It'd be nice to see him spank a few HR and cut down on his Ks, but it's not a need for him to be a good big leaguer. New Rating, 9.0

25. Carlos Triunfel, 8.5-Still extremely young, still doesn't K very often, still hasn't hit a professional home run.

26. Desmond Jennings, 8.5-The injury does more to hurt his case than the quick start does to help it.

27. Matt Wieters, 8.5-The Orioles drive me nuts. Wieters should have been in AA a month ago, if not to start the season. I don't really know how to read this. Is it his defense? It sure isn't his bat. Still, with his age and pedigree, he really hasn't helped his case all that much. There's still a chance he might not be able to rake at AA right away and there's still a chance that his glove will keep him from being a big league catcher. I'd say he's got the most volatility of any player in the minors, possibly ranking anywhere between #1 and #20 next season. I guess I'll raise his grade because he should be in AA, even though he isn't. New Rating, 9.0

28. Nate Schierholtz, 8.5-I didn't really expect him to improve, and he hasn't. He's just left off in a roster crunch by a team that has made some bad decisions in the past. If it were me, Randy Winn would have been traded for a twelve pack of Keystone Lite already. The MLB development of Schieholtz is more valuable than any increase in Winn's value with his hot start, let alone the salary relief.

29. Scott Moore, 8.5-Another guy that's about as good as he's going to get. It looked like a useful major league piece coming into the year, but that might not be the case anymore. New Rating, 7.5

30. Chris Davis, 8.5-A bunch of power and a bunch of Ks. Nothing has changed expect the scenery. If Davis manhandles AAA like he has the rest of the minors, he's got a shot to be #1 on the list next season. Even if he doesn't, he'll be in or around the top ten. New Rating, 9.0

31. Trevor Plouffe, 8.5-If you're going to be bad enough in your teams eyes to get sent back to the same level, try and improve, not get worse. He's age appropriate now, opposed to being young. There's still a good chance he'll be a contributor down the line, but his stock has definitely fallen. New Rating, 8.0

32. Chris Nelson, 8.5-Seems to have lost his power and his speed. Since he's not really a SS, he needs to hit. New Rating, 8.0

33. Brett Lillibridge, 8.5-Now we're just hoping he can turn into Julio Lugo. He's looking more like the 2007-2008 Lugo than the guy that was useful from 2003-2006. New Rating, 8.0

34. Blake Dewitt, 8.5-Sort of underlooked in the preseason, presumably for his lack of tools. He's a big riser with the promotion to the Show and the subsequent performance. Maybe he turns into the next Joe Randa, which is a nice little piece, especially since he's that right now. There's still a little upside too. New Rating, 9.0

35. Eric Campbell, 8.5-HIs performance has been good enought to earn this rating, but new information (ie the Braves didn't move him to AA) is going to knock him down. New Rating, 8.0

36. Angel Villalona, 8.5-Not a whole lot has changed. He's pretty much performing as expected at the level we expected. His big rise will probably start next season.

37. Austin Jackson, 8.0-Kind of a mixed bag at AA, but when you add it all together, it's about the same as last season. Since he was a boderline 8.5 and he's doing it a level higher, I'll raise his rating. If he can spank a few more HR, he's got a chance to be in the top 10 next season. New Rating, 8.5.

38. Neil Walker, 8.0-I actually botched this one in the preseason. I mis-typed his level by a year, and that makes a big difference. When I redid that, his rating came out similar to the boderline guys in the 9.0 range. He's striking out more this year, but due to a recent tear, he's hitting with more power. I'll leave him here for now until we have more information. New Rating, 9.0

39. Chase Headley, 8.0-Nothing has changed but he's doing it a level higher. New Rating, 8.5

40. Josh Reddick, 8.0-He goes to the Cal League and his power increases? No way!

41. Aaron Cunningham, 8.0-Suffered an injury in the preseason. Now he's back at AA and hitting with less power and less contact. Still a good chance to be a big leaguer, but his 2008 has hurt his value. New Rating, 7.5

42. Jed Lowrie, 8.0-Still strikes out too often for a guy with his power potential and still isn't a shortstop. AAA doesn't seem to be making a difference and he does have 42 good big league PA, so his stock is up. New Rating, 8.5 

43 J.R. Towles, 8.0-Complete flop so far. Young catchers are risky and prone to this type of thing. No giving up allowed.

44. Geovany Soto, 8.0-Oops. I'll readily admit that I thought there was a very good chance 2007 was a fluke. It definitely isn't. I'm not ready to annoint him the best catcher in the bigs, but he's a star already. New Rating, 10.0

45. Chris Lubanski, 8.0-It turns out this guy isn't very good. Evidently there was a physical reason for this picked up by scouts. I was slow to the party. New Rating, 6.0

46. Chris Carter (Oak), 8.0-Power. Check. Strikeouts. Check. Walks. Check. TTO slugger really needs to be a bopper to make it, but certianly has the promise.

47. Matt Antonelli, 8.0-Laying a stinker across the board at AAA. Still young enough to rebound, and might be in SD sooner rather than later regardless. New Rating, 7.5

48. German Duran, 8.0-At least he's laying his stinker in the Show.

49. NIcholas Weglarz, 8.0-Lost some power at A+, but according to reports, that's more likely a slump than a loss of skill. Another TTO type that needs to bop to make it.

50. Ryan Royster, 8.0-This guy needs to make up his mind on how much power he's going to show. New Rating, 7.0

51. Kyle Blanks, 8.0-Another who has lost some power as he climbs the ladder and leaves the Cal League. He's made up for it with a massive improvement in contact and walk rate. If he can go on a tear in the second half in HR, he could easily be a big time sleeper heading into next season.

52. Tyler Colvin, 8.0-On the bright side, he's improved his walk rate by 500%. That comes at the price of power though. For now, I'll assume he's working on his game and is a true CF and leave his grade unchanged.

53. Mike Moustakas, 8.0-Everything looks good in his full season debut. I wonder if the Royals would't be better served just moving him to RF now and letting his bat develop?

54. Sean Rodriguez, 8.0-He's got some value to a team that can use him at SS. I just don't know if the Angels are that team.

55. Joshua Rodriguez, 8.0-A little old to be struggling in AA. He was high risk medium reward, and the results are not good. New Rating, 7.0

56. Taylor Green, 8.0-You've got to like the combination of K/BB/HR. I don't really know anything about this guy other than the numbers, so I'll reserve judgement. He looks a lot like Blake Dewitt did last year.

57. Billy Rowell, 8.0-Still very young for his level, but since he'll need to hit his way to the Show, at some point he'll need to do something with the wood.

58. Bryan Anderson, 8.0-Everything looks the same, but he's in AAA now. His value is really going to be tied up in his presumably good defense, because he doesn't look like he'll hit a ton. New Rating, 8.5

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