Carlos Gomez hits for the cycle.
by hotshotschamp on May 7, 2008 11:58 PM EDT
Email
PrintHit a homer, then a triple, then double then single....did it backwards.
It's safe to say this kid is a keeper and minnesota fans are liking the trade more and more.
He's fun to watch, last twins player to hit for the cycle since the deceased Kirby Puckett. I think he can become a 20 homer guy who hits around .300 and also scores 100 runs with 60 + sb's a year. He's going to have his ups and downs of course, but in his prime he could be a special talent.
Congrats Carlos
43 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
He cant hit .300
with that plate patience.
He also cant steal that many bases if he’s getting on base at a .320 clip. He’s a freak athletically, but until/if he refines his approach at the plate his numbers at the end of the year are more likely to look like a down year Chone Figgins. Its a big “If” about him becoming a more selective hitter, too. I think he’s been pretty much as advertised at this point. Big questions remain.
What I cant believe is how stupid Ron Gardenhire is. Minny fans finally get Nick Punto out of the top of the order and he gets replaced with a kid who also never gets on base. Not smart. Shocking to me that Minny is at the bottom of the league in runs scored. They need to put Gomez at the bottom of the order. He’d be able to run more if they dropped him down, too. The way Gardenhire loves this kid, too, you can tell Twins fans can enjoy many years of watching Mauer and Morneau continue to bat with the bases empty.
Gomez
Well, considering he is currently on pace to steal 65 bases THIS YEAR, hard to say he can’t steal 60 in a season in his prime. And for the record, this season, he has an OPS+ of 105. So he already during this short season is an above-average hitter, with above-average speed and above-average defense.
Still disagree
Unsustainable, based on his components, IMHO.
All things remaining equal he wont be able to sustain that batting average for the rest of the year the way he is currently performing. He has a .360 BABIP… that wont last. Gomez will always have a high BABIP b/c of his wheels, but not that high. Combine the high BABIP with a disturbingly low 2.5%(!) walk rate and it is clear and inevitable that his batting average will be heading south of its current .282 soon. Once his average drops he will have far less opportunities to steal. It will look like he’s in a slump, and Im sure that’s what Joe Morgan will tell us – Rookie Wall, young guy pressing. But when he does slump bear in mind he will be doing the same thing he’s doing now – except not getting as luck.
Saying he’s on pace for 65 steals is tantamount to saying so and so is on pace for 120 HRs, or Emil Brown is on pace for 175 RBIs… Its a SSS thing. He can’t keep it up. In some ways, its even less genuine that those on pace things. He’s still going to steal a ridiculous amount of bases, but I say high 40’s, with a batting average in the .250-.260 range at best. That OPS+ will be going down too, b/c his OBP is currently a dreadful .306. When the AVG comes down that is going to look awful. Certainly not something that should be anywhere near the top of the lineup.
Players who hit .255/.295/.430 (725) with 40 steals and very good defense are useful players, dont get me wrong. Im not a big fan, though. He is a fun guy to watch.
Understood
I understand that by peripherals, his current performance probably isn’t sustainable. However – he still is only 22, so it doesn’t seem unreasonable to think that while his stats will suffer some from regression to his performance level, he should improve over the year which will offset some of that regression. His BABIP is higher than one would expect, but his will always be higher due to his speed. I believe he is bunting for hits at a 50% clip (and that is with being a pretty terrible bunter), which obviously will raise the BABIP relative to his LD rate. Plus, you saying he can steal in the high 40s and the poster saying he can steal 60 in his prime really isn’t much different.
OPS+
Also keep in mind that his OPS+ is above-average (currently) without considering his position. According to the Hardball Times, last year the mean OPS+ for CF was 97 and the median was only 88, so even if his offense slows down some, he has quite a ways to drop before he is a lower half CF offensively. Couple that with well above average D, and he is easily in the top half of MLB CFs NOW.
Oh absolutely
Id love to have the kid. Like I said – even if he’s a .255 hitter, he’s still going to be a useful player. Not a top of the lineup guy, but that doesnt mean worthless. He’s valuable now and has a good amount of upside.
He probably should be in AA or AAA though. And you can learn patience as you age – not that he’s ever going to be a patient hitter, but just a little uptick and he’s a good CF option. What you cant teach is speed like that, or quick hands.
If Im a Twins fans Id still rather have Ellsbury, though, and its really not close. Same amount of steals, fwiw, not that those are a huge factor. Ellsbury hasnt been caught, Gomez has once. Ellsbury already has very good patience and looks like he will hit for more power as he ages… his swing does generate a lot of backspin/loft. I didnt expect Ellsbury to be this good… this soon or at all. His defense is great, too. I like Guerra, but Id much rather have Ellsbury and Masterson over Gomez/Guerra. Not to rehash this, b/c I know its been discussed a hundred times… and we dont know what the offers were… just sayin…
Ellsbury is two years older
He’s better now, but I’m not sure he will be in the long run. I think Gomez has the higher ceiling, and it’s a very good chance he will improve in plate discipline. It’s normal for that to suffer at a new level, especially when a guy is pushed quickly.
And, he has actually stolen 64 bases before, in a 120 game minor league season (with only a .331 OBP), so it’s not quite like saying someone will hit 120 HR or Emil Brown will drive in 175. But, I’m only quibbling a bit here with the example, I agree that sample size is a factor, and I think your projection overall is reasonable for this year.
As for Ellsbury, if he can keep it up with this unworldy OBP, maybe he will be better. Is he really going to be a .390+ OBP guy?
Carl Crawford batted leadoff with like 30 BB's the whole year
and remember Jose Reyes in 2005 27 BB’s the whole year and was called the worst everyday player in the league. Still not sure Gomez will ever hit which is why he could be Gary Pettis if he doesn’t get better but if he does he’ll be a premier leadoff guy with speed and moderate power.
Baseball-reference.com
Would disagree with your statement, as he has played more games as a leadoff hitter than any other position in the lineup.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=crawfca02
He led off virtually the entire 2003-2004 seasons.
Bravesin07 is correct – 2003 had 26 BBs, 2004 had 35 BBs.
by Diggity Dino on May 8, 2008 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Left/right splits
I know it is still early in the season, but there is quite a difference in his numbers versus lefties compared to righties. He has a 1.148 ops versus lefties, and hit both hrs off them. Then a .584 against righties.
why do people get so obsessed with comparisons on players? i hate that. Let the kid play and let him become his own player, maybe he’s different than anyone you’ve seen thus far. Not just with Gomez but with everyone. Everybody wants to know “Who would you compare _ to?” Its cool to say you think his ceiling is that of a Jose Reyes or something of the sort, but young guys need a chance to develop and learn the game and how to succeed, and i think comparisons are where they start getting judged way too harshly and then become “busts”
Youngest to hit cycle?
Gomez accomplishing this at age 22 made me wonder who is the youngest player to ever hit for the cycle.
He was the 3rd youngest, they showed the stat on I think Baseball Tonight. A-Rod was 2nd Youngest, can’t remember who was 1st on that list.
by adropofvenom on May 8, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Mel Ott
was the youngest to do it at age 20. second youngest is A-Rod and then Carlos Gomez. Not bad company there.
by TheFranchise9 on May 8, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Cesar Cedeno?
Pretty sure that’s who they said did it. Maybe theirs was after, say, 1940.
"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)
Cedeno
Yeah, someone else just told me they said Cedeno on sportscenter last night. But if you type it into askjeeves…it takes you to a link and says…
“Upton would have become the youngest player ever to hit for the cycle, which is still Mel Ott, who was 20 years old when he did it on May 16, 1929. Ott played his first major league game at age 17 on April 27, 1926.”
I know you can’t beleive everything on the internet, so I’d lean towards beleving its Cedeno…but if anyone can confirm that I’d be very interested…
by TheFranchise9 on May 8, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
So I saw
ESPN did say Cedeno, though, so they must have qualified the statement somehow. Don’t recall the graphic offhand, and it’s not on ESPN’s site either (quelle suprise). Either they set the cutoff at some point after 1929, or SOMEONE’S getting fired at the Worldwide Leader…
"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)
I Got It
Because they both hit for the cycle before their 23rd birthday, Carlos Gomez is the next Andujar Cedeno. Right Bravesin?
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 8, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL
The OP showed remarkable restraint by waiting a whole ten seconds before starting the 198th thread here on MLB about Carlos Gomez. Unfortunately, Gomez is still the same player he was last month, during spring training, last year. No walk, slap hitting speedster who plays good defense. Lost in all the hoopla here was the fact that even while hitting for the cycle, Carlos struck out in his other two at-bats. He’s also got a whopping total of 3 walks all year. That tells me alot more than one lucky 6 AB game.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
Uhm...
If someone hits for the cycle, I’d be surprised if a poster didn’t start a thread on here about that player. Methinks your dislike of Gomez is clouding your judgement.
"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)
No
What I hate is all the hyperbole that’s spewed out and the rose colored glasses all the Carlos Gomez disciples wear whenever they post about their most favored son.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 8, 2008 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
As opposed to the venom...
that’s spewed by those who refuse to accept or be excited by fact that a 6’4” track star with lightning quick bat speed and a style of play that can ignite a team may actually develop into something more than he is right now.
All you need to do to fall in love with the guy is watch the way he plays. His fire – which can’t really be quantified – explains his fan base.
Sitting back and counting his walks (or lack thereof) like an embittered actuary, on the other hand, is pretty pathetic.
How can you "ignite a team"
if you never walk… ever…?
I believe that’s the hyperbole that was referenced above.
slap hitting?
I guess he just slapped for the cycle then.
Yup
And he’s slapped a grand total of 2 more triples & homers this year. He’ll hit double digit homers right around the last week of September AT THE PACE HE’S ON. See it works for stats other than steals too.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 8, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
...and then the world will end
Obviously everyone who speaks highly of CarGo does so because of 2008. Why else would anyone be excited?
God forbid... a 22 year old has poor plate discipline
Might as well just release the guy. He’ll never figure out how to be more selective at this point. After all, he has had 250 at bats.
The speed, defense, and potential power: what the hell good is it if you don’t look at 7 pitches every at bat?
Like I said...
Your impeccable logic shows quite clearly that the only thing to do with a washed up hack like Gomez is dump him.
Just look at the day he had today. What more evidence does one need to just cast the piece of trash aside?
The point is that Carlos Gomez is good
but not terrific. I actually have no problem with what people are saying this time, but I think some are still sensitive from claims people made a few months ago. You’re absolutely right, though, that he’s now a pretty good player and has a chance to be an excellent one
by OldProspects on May 8, 2008 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Welcome Back
Sock puppet
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 9, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Gomez is better than Delmon Young though
Gomez at least has some power, Young is basically Pierre with much much less speed and a better arm.
LOL
Brilliant
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 8, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I probably would too
but his statement is 100% correct. He’s hitting like Pierre w/o speed.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
3 homers
Up to 3 homers now. With his size and athletic ability, is it a stretch for him to hit 20 homers one day? From what I’ve seen from him, he hits some balls pretty hard and once he gets more confidence at the plate he won’t slap anymore, instead bringing more of a power swing each time.
Jose Reyes 2005 (22) – 696 AB, 27 BB, 300 OBP
Jose Reyes 2007 (24) – 681 AB, 77 BB, 354 OBP
Ichiro 2001 – 692 AB, 30 BB
Ichiro 2002 – 647 AB, 68 BB
Reyes and Gomez at age 22 are eriely similar – and look at that huge BB increase from 2005 to 2007 with Reyes. 17 fewer AB, 50 more BB.
Meanwhile Ichiro was just an example of a guy without many walks his first year in the bigs who was still able to be an incredible offensive force. And even though he was already in his prime by his rookie year, his second year in the majors featured a huge patience increase, though his OBP actually went down 7 points in 2002.
Nobody is saying Gomez will be a .080 IsoDiscipline guy, but 300 BA, 15 HR, 60+ SB, 350+ OBP seems like a real possibility, to me at least.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
