MiLB Mock Draft: Pick 21 Detroit

by Terry Ryan Jr on May 7, 2008 3:47 PM EDT

The Mariners get great value with Martin at #20.

Ike Davis follows at #2. I am wondering if there might be a huge contingent of Sun Devils that have been voting on these polls. Ballot stuffing should be a thing of the past with the new format, but Wallace walked away with the Toronto pick in his first appearance, and Davis gave Martin a run for his money here. I am just beginning to wonder a little bit.

Now we have Detroit, the poster child organization for going over slot the last few years. Andrew Miller, Rick Porcello, and Cameron Maybin the last 3 years. There doesn't seem to be a guy that has dropped in the mock because of signability concerns. In the real draft this wouldn't surprise me. I really think this is the year that the slotting system completely falls apart. I see teams that have adhered very strictly (Pittsburgh and Minnesota) say that they will invest in this draft, which hasn't happened in the past. Detroit might not get its steal as it has in the past. The system has been gutted and without Porcello I truly believe it would be the worst system in all of baseball. They need an impact player here. Davis would fit nicely here as would a guy like Isaac Galloway. Lets see what happens

1. Tampa Bay - Aaron Crow-RHP-Mizzou
2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez-3B-Vandy
3. Kansas City - Tim Beckham-SS-HS Georgia
4. Baltimore - Brian Matusz-LHP-San Diego
5. San Francisco - Justin Smoak-1B-South Carolina
6. Florida - Yonder Alonso-1B-Miami (FL)
7. Cincinnati - Gordon Beckham-SS-Georgia
8. Chicago (AL) - Tim Melville-RHP-HS Missouri
9. Washington - Kyle Skipworth-C-HS California
10. Houston - Tanner Scheppers-RHP-Fresno St
11. Texas - Eric Hosmer-1B-HS Florida
12. Oakland- Jemile Weeks- 2B-Miami (FL)
13. St. Louis- Buster Posey- C- Florida St
14. Minnesota- Shooter Hunt- RHP- Tulane
15. Los Angeles (NL) - Gerrit Cole-RHP-HS California
16. Milwaukee - Christian Friedrich-LHP-Eastern Kentucky
17. Toronto - Brett Wallace-1B-Arizona St.
18. New York (NL) - Aaron Hicks-CF/RHP-HS California
19. Chicago (NL) - Joshua Fields-RHP-Georgia
20. Seattle - Ethan Martin-RHP/3B-HS Georgia
21. Detroit
22. New York (NL)
23. San Diego
24. Philadelphia
25. Colorado
26. Arizona
27. Minnesota
28. New York (AL)
29. Cleveland
30. Boston

0 recs | Comment 30 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

There is

no way Scott Bittle goes in the first round. None.

I don’t really see Dykstra and maybe not even Raben here but they are reasonable choices

by nms on May 7, 2008 4:21 PM EDT 0 recs

The guy I could see the Tigers going for here

is Sarasota, FL SS Casey Kelly. I’m not sure he is one of the 21st best players in this draft but some really, really like him for his MLB SS glove, ample power potential, athleticism and bloodlines. He will be hard to sign because of his Tennessee QB scholly but the Tigers don’t seem to mind that

As a side note this whole section of the draft is kind of barren for me. I think the second and supplemental round guys are as good as those picked here

by nms on May 7, 2008 4:27 PM EDT 0 recs

don't see

how danks is going to win this. How anyone would take such a huge underachiever like danks over some of the names left is confusing. For his tools? If tools is what you want take one of the high school kids.

by ScottAZ on May 7, 2008 4:38 PM EDT 0 recs

underachiever?

Danks is a strong overall player who can be easily projected to be an average MLBer with the chance to be much better too

by nms on May 7, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yes, a well documented dissapointment

Has hit 2, 4, and now 5 homeruns at UT. At 6’5” and the winner of the Aflack Game homerun derby (beat Cam Maybin) he was supposed to be a big basher. His swing mechanics are off and hasn’t shown much.

For avergae he has hit .319, 322, .317 in his three years. Hardly awe inspiring.

Here is more on how Danks has failed to live up to his hype:

http://www.burntorangenation.com/story/2007/4/30/161719/098

http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/showthread.php?t=213239

by ScottAZ on May 8, 2008 10:35 AM EDT up 0 recs

just because

a guy’s power has not developed as it could does not make him an ‘underachiever’.

he has still been a very good player

by nms on May 8, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

Other

Alex Meyer

by SBcaptain2 on May 7, 2008 4:53 PM EDT 0 recs

hm I thought Meyer had been picked already

but I guess I was wrong. I agree. Meyer, and a couple arms, are much more worthy of picks here than Dykstra or Bittle.

I think if you are considering Dykstra, Galloway or Raben guys like Gillaspie, Cooper, Pallazone, Meyer, Perry, Ross, Hunter, Gray and Murphy are just as eligible although injury and signablity Qs exist for a couple of those

NOTE-
I’m not really trying to blast the selection of guys for the poll. You’re doing a good job at a hard task. Things just get a little more wide open down at this end of the draft

by nms on May 7, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

Thanks for the last little bit....

I keep trying to throw out 7-9 names that could go. Tossing guys that got little to no support, and incorporating new ones. Meyer is a guy that I was heralding 8 picks ago and never seemed to get any momentum. I am not a premium subscriber on any of the pay sites that have massive updated scouting reports, so my info is coming from things like the actual BA mag, free content, and NCAA stats sites. I appreciate when people clamor for a guy because I always think that I haven’t heard something about a particular prospect. Out of the list that you provided there are some guys that have gotten hammered on these polls in the not so distant past (Perry, Gray, and Cooper). I appreciate you enthusiasm about this mock.

Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
Crash Davis

by Terry Ryan Jr on May 7, 2008 10:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

BA's draft tracker is up

It only goes through 30 by rank.
19 Alex Meyer RHP
20 Casey Kelly SS (reportedly won’t sign to pitch)
22 Conor Gillaspie 3B
24 Andrew Cashner RHP
25 Ryan Perry RHP
26 Reese Havens SS/2B/3B
27 Jason Castro C
28 Brett Devall LHP
29 Daniel Webb RHP
30 Ike Davis 1B/OF

The Tigers system could use everything. The major league team could use relief pitching this year and next. Cashner is intriguing.

by lonestar on May 8, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

Meyer

Meyer belongs there on talent. I think one concern is he hasn’t pitched much this year. I’m wondering if there’s not something wrong with his arm, but maybe I’m getting too suspicious there. I do think that is part of what’s causing him to slip a bit though.

by acerimusdux on May 8, 2008 7:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

other

add another one for meyer

by fewgoodcards on May 7, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1 for Meyer

http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/

by lemonjello on May 7, 2008 8:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

Meyer

That makes 4 votes for Meyer. I bet he’d be leading the poll if he was on it.

by SBcaptain2 on May 7, 2008 9:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

No Dykstra

He’s not going to go to Detroit because, A. we have a backlog at 1B with Cabrera, Guillen in a few years (possibly) and Larish. And I don’t see Detroit putting him in the corners.

I can see Danks, insofar as he’s a toolsy corner OF, and since he’s a college player, he may move pretty fast. We can use the help in the corners soon too. I can also see Dombrowski going for a high school player with a really high ceiling (to help with the inevitable post-2009 rebuilding).

by demondeaconsbaseball on May 7, 2008 4:54 PM EDT 0 recs

Danks plays CF at Texas

and looks like as a good a bet as (almost) any college CF to play CF in MLB

by nms on May 7, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

Touche...

Just saw he got switched to center on the Texas website. In that case, does he have the bat for RF?

by demondeaconsbaseball on May 7, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

right now..no

but he does have plenty of power projection. If he can finally tap into that he could hit in RF.
Right now though he seems like a guy who won’t need to move off CF and will hit enough there

by nms on May 8, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

projection

I don’t see it happening. He has hit 2, 4 and now 5 homers at UT with aluminum bats. I don’t see how you can go from averaging 3-4 homers a year in college to all of a sudden developing power in the pros. It is the other way around- guys that hit 10-15 in college that lose their pop with wood

by ScottAZ on May 9, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

In general

but it is not like it is unheard of for a long, athletic 6-5 200 pound kid to add physical strength in his early 20s.

Plus Disch-Falk field greatly hampers power (which really makes Kyle Russell’s metal bat pop all the more impressive, even if it is the only thing he can do on a baseball field)

by nms on May 9, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

examples

teagarden had 22 homers in 682 at-bats for Texas but 34 in 490 pro at-bats.

Michael Hollimon had 12 homers and 39 extra-base hits at the end of his jr year at Texas but has hit 52 homers and lots of doubles and triples in the minors and one more year of college since then

Players frequently add power after college

by nms on May 9, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

Davis vs. Danks

Both Sun Devils (Wallace and Davis) are legit 1st round candidates. It’s possible they are getting over rated a bit though just because what a lot of people have to go on are college stats. And not everyone is accounting for that 118 park factor John notes on the front page for Arizona State either. Wallace is a legit bat, but his soft body is enough a concern for me to knock him down to a bit lower than he was taken here (esp. after watching the clip of him running to 1B at milb.com), but really not by much (maybe 5 picks).

Davis is a guy John obviously likes a lot. He has him targeted at #27 for his Twins shadow draft, and then listed as the #7 college hitter. So if people here are paying attention to John, it’s not surprising he’s getting votes. Given the numbers he’s putting up, and his athleticism and good corner OF tools, with only average speed but a good arm for RF, he’s a worthy pick around here.

Danks is a guy who initially I looked at his college numbers and wasn’t that impressed. But, looking a bit deeper, although his college season is still a bit disappointing even considering a pitchers park, I think he is intriguing here. The main thing he has lacked is much HR power. But for a guy who is 6’5” and hitting a lot of doubles, it may be that there is a good chance of those turning into HR down the road. Add in some rare speed for a guy that size, enough to be able to steal 20 bases and cover CF, and he begins to look pretty good even if the power doesn’t develop that much.

Finally, his hasn’t really underachieved by as much as you might think. Though he only hit .317 on the college season, 46% of those hits went for extra bases. And he performed well for Team USA over the summer, outhitting both Wallace and Smoak. So he has shown he can perform with wood bats against top competition. Davis meanwhile, struggled in 65 PA in Cape Cod this summer, before being sidelined with an injury. Though that itself is a small sample, the lack of the track record with wood is likely one thing keeping Davis from ranking higher.

The one thing I would be concerned with in Danks’s numbers is the high strikeout rate. Though he did well with Team USA, he also led that team in strikeouts, whiffing once every 4 PA. It was a bit better in his college season, 1 every 6 PA, but still not great for a guy not showing over the fence power.

by acerimusdux on May 7, 2008 6:46 PM EDT 0 recs

ASU Ballpark Effects

Okay – so stats are stats . . . maybe the field (during night games) has helped guys like Tim Smith, Matt Spencer, Dustin Pedroia, and Chris Duffy who have decent, but not spectacular power.

Davis and Wallace are different – they are hitters with true power. This season Wallace has hit 11 HRs in 32 home games and 4 HRs in 14 games away from Packard. That’s a very similar percentage of HRs/Game, and of course a hitter is more comfortable at home. Same backdrop, same routine, sleep in own bed, etc. etc. etc.

I would like to see the video link from milb.com – Wallace has solid tree trunk legs and a powerful looking upper body. He moves well around the bases – definitely not a clog on the basepaths – see ASU’s Kiel Roling for a clog.

by gunkdog on May 7, 2008 9:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

Look

I always hear about how Packard helps with power, but show me who became falsely advertised as a power hitter playing for ASU.

Smith and Duffy both hit only 3 homers their last year as Devils. Spencer hit 10, but has huge power (hit the longest HR in Minute Maid Park history against Rice). Pedro hit 7 his last year as a Devil, but no one considered him a homerun hitter.

by ScottAZ on May 8, 2008 10:42 AM EDT up 0 recs

Sogard, for one

had 20 homers in 400ish ABs as a soph and jr at Az State but has just 4 homers in 400 and some pro at-bats so far.

No one is saying that Wallace and Davis aren’t good hitters, but it is well known throughout college ball that Packard favors hitters. Thus it is reasonable to wonder if maybe the ballpark makes Wallace and Davis look a little better than they actually are… even if in ANY park they would show some offensive talent

by nms on May 9, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

Also

Jeremy West, though he clearly had some wood-bat power too with 112 doubles and 45 homers in 500 minor league games, put up some stats at Packard that made him look like a god (944 OPS as freshman, 1118 soph and 1206 jr) but his minor league OPSs were 767, 835, 751, 773 and 630.

by nms on May 9, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Galloway

Galloway is to tools as the Spears sisters are to pregnancy. Marinate on that for a second. Galloway is the closest thing in this draft to a guy to what Heyward was last year. He’s Jermaine Dye + Juan Pierre + Mustard. Delicious.

Sweet like macaroni, Sour like chicken. Blogs are Evil.

by Buzz Bissinger on May 7, 2008 7:50 PM EDT 0 recs

Galloway

Saw him play. He is very toolsie, but very, very raw. Doesn’t show game power yet. Mechanics a little off at the plate. Best tool right now is speed, which can be said for most toolsie athletes.

Heyword had an extremely advanced plate approach and was like a man playing kids in high school. Not the same for Calloway

by ScottAZ on May 8, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up 0 recs

Gillaspie

Just going by stats, Gillaspie looks like maybe the best college hitter after Alvarez, Smoak, and Alonso. After you park adjust, his 1.15 OPS this year ends up about equal to what Wallace or Davis has done this year, and Gillaspie outhit everyone (with Alonso the only one close) at Cape Cod this summer with wood.

On top of that, he’s got a very low strikeout rate, which I think makes him the best bet in this draft to continue to hit at higher levels. His 25 extra base hits with only 17 strikeout on the year is excellent. He likewise had one of the best contact rates at Cape Cod (along with Yonder Alonso and Jermaine Curtis).

Other guys do have better projection, higher ceilings and positional advantages. And pretty much anyone who has been chosen already here has a case for one or more of the above. But Gillaspie is arguably the best pure hitter available this draft, and a safe bet to be a productive MLB player. I think he’s a cut above the remaining college talent here.

by acerimusdux on May 8, 2008 7:37 PM EDT 0 recs