Josh Hamilton's Bounty

by Buzz Bissinger on May 6, 2008 7:24 PM EDT

I was reading an article today which suggested that the Rangers will be continuing to stock up their minor league system, and the main idea was that Josh Hamilton may be used as their big trading chip... the destination they suggested was Toronto, and the Jays would pony up some of their pitching and prospects to get the deal done.

I'm not very familiar with Toronto's system, but what kind of bounty do you think Hamilton could bring in, if Toronto were willing to deplete the farm for a post season drive??

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Weird that No One wants to Keep Hamilton

But I really think this would be a good move for the Rangers. Let’s face it – they aren’t competing this year and they almost certainly are not competing next year either. If they move Millwood, Young, Blalock, Laird, Bradley, and Hamilton – they would be the worst team in the majors (as if they aren’t already) but they could bring in a lot of critical chips. I’ve always been of the mindset that if you are going to rebuild – you should go all out (see the Marlins/A’s). And while Hamilton is an exciting young cost controlled player – he might bring 3 or 4 of those back…

by Dfarth on May 6, 2008 7:32 PM EDT 0 recs

i agree

by columbusOHcubsfan on May 6, 2008 9:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's the injury risk

and the suspension risk. Cinci got rid of him when he started showing some risky behaviors again, but I think Texas might try to sell high on a guy who has a lot of trouble staying healthy.

I agree that it’s tough to trade him though with as well as Volquez has been doing so far this season. But if Hamilton stays healthy all year and Volquez falls off before the end of the year, then a trade isn’t out of the question. I have little doubt that he’ll still miss big chunks of the next few years with injuries.

I will say there’s a lot of noise from Rays fandom about how much they’d be willing to give to get Hamilton back though. I still can’t blame the front office for leaving him available in Rule 5 (couldn’t stay healthy, had barely played above A-ball, didn’t dominate short season in his time back, and would have been out of options at the end of the year with what looked like a very crowded outfield at the time – Young, Crawford, Baldelli, Dukes, possibly Upton, etc.), but obviously it ended up being the wrong decision.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on May 7, 2008 7:44 AM EDT up 0 recs

question

where have you heard about risk behaviour? Do you have a link for this as I’ve not heard anything on this? thanks.

As for the injury risk? I don’t buy into that at all. Last year he was an injury risk going into the season because he hadn’t played in so long and to be able to play the 162 game season without injury is no small task. But going forward I don’t see him as a big injury risk.

by pedrophile on May 7, 2008 9:25 AM EDT up 0 recs

he does have

long standing back issues and they cropped up a little last year too as I recall.

Injuring his back years ago is part of what got him addicted to being with actually..

by nms on May 7, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

Injury risk

He’s been injured every single year since he was drafted. He was in a major car wreck that screwed up his back badly, and problems crop up from time to time. He also had shoulder and leg problems. He was an injury risk long before he got hooked on drugs. If he plays through this season healthy, it will be his first healthy season as a pro.

As for the risky behavior, there was a rumor that the Reds were looking to trade Hammy because he started partying with some of his teammates, and wanted to offload him rather than risk him losing all his trade value by getting hooked on drugs again. I believe the Reds officially denied this, but I heard this from multiple sources.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on May 7, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

"Risky behavior" rumor totally unsubstantiated....

...according to Keith Law a couple weeks ago at Baseball Think Factory.

by jonk1982 on May 7, 2008 8:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

I hear you on the injuries

but think it is over exaggerated right now.

by pedrophile on May 7, 2008 9:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

Injuries

He is a huge Risk. Will he turn into Baldelli? NO. But will he have to work hard to not miss large portions of his career? Yes.

That rumor on risky behavior was BS. However the guy is not even 24 months from being removed of all the bad things he was once doing. He was on drugs a little under two years ago. Now I hope he stays off them but it will always be a problem that he will have to fight through out his career. He has had to have a babysitter in Narron in Cincy and Texas and the guy is still young. I’m rooting for him but still a tough road ahead.

by kennythered on May 9, 2008 1:44 AM EDT up 0 recs

on drugs a little under 2 years ago?

have you heard something I haven’t?

by pedrophile on May 9, 2008 1:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

He chose

to have a baby sitter. There is a huge difference. He’s taking personal responsibility for his actions and is using Narron to make sure that he doesn’t get into trouble again. Doing things like not carrying cash ever. Does that mean he’s not a risk? Absolutely not. But it means that he knows he’s a huge risk and is willing to make sacrifices to keep himself from getting back into drugs. No doubt it’ll be a fight, but it’s one he’s being proactive in.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on May 9, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

totally agree

It will be the battle of his life. But others that demean this battle are only demeaning themselves.

by pedrophile on May 9, 2008 11:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

ricky romero and sergio santos

both have massive upsides. the only reason their stock has fallen was because of shiny new toy syndrome.

it would be the biggest haul this side of pierzynski.

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on May 6, 2008 8:29 PM EDT 0 recs

huh?

by nms on May 6, 2008 8:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Obvious: never has beens

Romero was an apparent over-draft and Santos has never gotten any better than he has been.

by BBFan1 on May 6, 2008 9:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

Link to the article?

Can’t imagine it’s anything more than a writers random speculation. Trading Volquez for Hamilton can’t make it any easier for the Rangers to then trade Hamilton for prospects and most likely pitching prospects.

by cowboy4eva on May 6, 2008 8:44 PM EDT 0 recs

Re:

Maybe if they could get a Volquez level prospect+ some others…it’s essentially be swapping prospects for more value…

by Dfarth on May 6, 2008 9:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

What article, where?

Link? Ranger fans have heard absolutely nothing suggesting they would deal Hamilton. He’s under team control for years and may very well be the best CF they’ve ever had, why on earth would they deal him now?

Much more likely they’ll deal Millwood, Padilla, Laird, Bradley, etc.

...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.

by t ball on May 6, 2008 8:49 PM EDT 0 recs

don't see it

It’s not like Hamilton is in his early 30s.

He’s just entering his prime years and the Rangers have him locked in throughout it all. There is no reason to trade him for “prospects”. He’s still be in his early 30s in 5 years.

by Galt on May 6, 2008 8:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Link Here

http://www.metronews.ca/vancouver/comment/article/49258

Sweet like macaroni, Sour like chicken. Blogs are Evil.

by Buzz Bissinger on May 6, 2008 9:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Ok,

that seems awfully speculative. I’m sure that if they call Daniels he’ll listen, but it would take a lot at this point to get him to listen seriously.

...and curse Sir Walter Raleigh, he was such a stupid git.

by t ball on May 6, 2008 9:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

is there another article?

Because that doesn’t mesh at all with what you are suggesting. It only mentions the Jays might be interested in Hamilton. Nothing else.

by pedrophile on May 6, 2008 9:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

yes

there is another article, but it was in the paper today, and isn’t online yet. it basically flushes out this article more and is more about hamilton on the outs. i will try to post it when i find it.

Sweet like macaroni, Sour like chicken. Blogs are Evil.

by Buzz Bissinger on May 6, 2008 10:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

They deal him now because he is kicking ass

you sound like the idiots running the Rangers.

by TexasHeat on May 7, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re:

I think it’s pure speculation at this point – I have my doubts that it is seriously being considered…

by Dfarth on May 6, 2008 9:57 PM EDT 0 recs

This is ridiculous speculation

He’s their best player and is controlled cheaply for years.

by zywica on May 6, 2008 11:12 PM EDT 0 recs

Marty York

Buzz – you do realize who he is and his reputation? He’s known to be a plagiarist, is hated by the media, and is hated by the players. And is known to misquote or take things out of context to create a good story.

by pedrophile on May 7, 2008 12:46 AM EDT 0 recs

Yep there's a reason

he writes for a free newspaper!

Allan's World Music

by achengy on May 7, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

Even if...

this were more than just your typical random rumor type story, what exactly would the Jays trade? Travis Snider and a bunch of maybes in low A? Seriously, I don’t even see the potential for a deal there unless they trade some of the pitching that’s keeping them in contention in the first place.

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

by rswanzey on May 7, 2008 12:54 AM EDT 0 recs

The Jays could use another good bat (especially a lefty), but I don’t think they have the minor league talent to acquire Hamilton. The guy will probably hit 30+ HR this year and drive in 100+ RBIs.

J.P. could have helped himself out by drafting some better players in recent years.

by Squire_Boone on May 7, 2008 1:51 AM EDT 0 recs

Too Good

Hamilton is way too good and too young for the Rangers to make a speculative trade. Every team needs a face for their franchise and Hamilton is a guy they should build around, not trade for prospects.

by kcdaren on May 7, 2008 5:02 AM EDT 0 recs

Leads the league in RBI's, among the leaders in XBH, HR, Doubles....

I have a hard time even speculating on the fact that Texas would be willing to move Hamilton. He is under team control for a cost controled 5 more years.

His power is jaw dropping, (watch the replay of last nights HR vs Seatle) and has steady contact and OBP #’s. Unless Tor is willing to glut its team of young talent, Texas might have difficulty even listening to this propsal.

Would have to include Lind, (but now that he is signed longterm…) and 1 if not 2 of the mlb ready SP. I dont see Riccardi doing that move. Should have waited on the Big time extensions Riccardi. You got no payroll flexiablity now.

by laxtonto on May 7, 2008 8:51 AM EDT 0 recs

The weird thing is...

We still don’t exactly know where Hamilton’s upside is at this point. But I think it’s fair to say that aside from Snider, who I can’t imagine the Jays trading, Toronto doesn’t really have anyone in the minors with Hamilton’s ceiling. Heck, after Snider, do the Jays have anyone with the upside to be what Hamilton is right now?

by aap212 on May 7, 2008 2:07 PM EDT 0 recs

Hamilton is going to be his era's Mickey Mantle

An incredible talent who puts up great numbers, but because of personal choices and recurring injuries, will never be able to fully live up to what he could of been.

It still hurts me as a Rays fan that he’s gone on to be this good considering we could really use him in RF right now, but based on all the circumstances surrounding him at the time, you can hardly blame Rays management for making the decision they did.

www.raysbb.com

Yes, we really do have fans.

by killa3312 on May 7, 2008 3:36 PM EDT 0 recs

Ironic

He was compared to Mickey Mantle coming out of HS and rightly so. He has an absolute cannon for an arm, plus athleticism (although his CF Defense isn’t as good as Mantles was), power that’s borderline absurd. He really could/can do it all. And he should have been doing it in the show 5 years ago.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on May 7, 2008 8:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

I can't believe

at one point some were calling him an “overrated” prospect (outside of injuries/off field stuff) because he didn’t walk enough.

by nms on May 8, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

btw

I don’t understand defending TB’s choice to leave him off the roster. There were many guys that had no chance of helping them in the future. Obviously Josh was a big longshot. But some of the guys protected were useless and always would be useless for TB.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/roster.php?y=2007&t=TBA

by pedrophile on May 7, 2008 9:43 PM EDT 0 recs

re:

The fact is Josh had shown nothing besides being hurt and having drug issues. At the time they had 5 OF’s who had shown a lot more up to that point that were vying for playing time. Even if you take out Rocco that’s still 4 OF’s and no playing time for Josh. You could easily make the case that Josh never would of had the year he had last year if the Rays kept him and it’s amazing what he did. That’s pretty much why no Rays fan can really fault the decision. There is/was no question his talent, but he never did anything to even give a hint that he all of a sudden could of done this after 4 years of no baseball.

by hybrid on May 8, 2008 1:27 AM EDT up 0 recs

Here's the deal

Friedman honestly didn’t expect him to stick. He thought he’d be returned after spring training, then Hammy went and hit .500 during the spring. He had a .687 OPS in 15 games in the NYPL, then got hurt and had knee surgery. That was the first time he’d played baseball since 02’. As I’ve said many times, he’s probably the most physically gifted player in the big leagues (A-Rod might be slightly more blessed but it’s close), but there is nothing to suggest that he’d be able to go and hit ML pitching that fast with that kind of layoff.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on May 8, 2008 7:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

hybrid

Correct me if I’m wrong but I think you are mistaking the rules. Cinci had to keep him on the active roster all year since he was claimed in the rule 5 draft.

Hammy still had options, lots of them. And even if he didn’t it’s easy to get relief from that “special dispensation” from a player that has been hurt or inactive.

Hamilton could have played the year in the minors and they could see what they have. But instead someone else was protected. Someone with very little upside.

For a rebuilding team there isn’t much excuse for that. It’s poor roster management.

by pedrophile on May 8, 2008 9:27 AM EDT up 0 recs

Maybe I wasn't clear

I don’t actually know how many option years he had left but that wasn’t my point. My point was that while Friedman and Co. expected he’d be taken in the Rule 5 draft, they also expected that he wouldn’t stick on the big league club with the Reds all year and his rights would be returned. From their perspective, they had an absurdly talented player who last played in 02’ came back for 15 games, didn’t hit particularly well and then had knee surgery. They didn’t think they needed to protect him to keep him. It was obviously a mistake, but probably best for Josh. Had he been on the Rays, they would have started him in Low-A. And how he would have responded to that and staying with the organization is anyones guess. I love the kid and he’s one of my favorite players, but I can see a very good argument for not protecting him at the time.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on May 8, 2008 10:16 AM EDT up 0 recs

oh, I can understand

why TB would think he would get returned. That is very understandable. I just don’t understand why they take the risk. They had some very borderline guys protected. After all it’s not the 25 man roster, it’s the 40 they go by. Or something like that, I can’t think right now.

And I do agree it was probably best for Josh. Not just the player development. I think it’s easier just to watch over him from the drugs point of view. And because of how good he is they have a much larger vested interest in this.

by pedrophile on May 8, 2008 7:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree with what others said

plus it was probably good for both sides to move on and start fresh

by nms on May 8, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

BTW

He is an amazingly nice pro athlete to meet. I met him when he was out of baseball, working construction and hitting at a local batting cage. He acted like any other construction worker taking a break to hit some baseballs for the fun of it… not a washed-up, could-have-been superstar. Completely friendly and humble

There is no way I can ever not root for him.

And seeing him tee off on a straight, 75-mph, pitching machine “fastball” was ungodly. Im surprised he didn’t pop the ball in half

by nms on May 9, 2008 4:26 PM EDT 0 recs