Nice job on the list.
I don’t recall seeing Thames this high on any other lists thus far, and I agree, he could be an intriguing under the radar prospect.
One question: Ike Davis is listed as an OF, but from what I can find, he has only played 1B at Arizona St. Is he projected as being capable of playing the OF in the majors?
Your rankings of Posey and G Beckham could be a bit controversial, but I just read Jonathan Mayo’s article in which he quotes a scouting director as saying in regards to this year’s draft, ”...I think you’ll see a lot of deal-cutting and a lot drafting for need.” So perhaps for this particular draft, with it’s wealth of 1B-types and dearth of up-the-middle players, your rankings hold a good deal of merit. The tenet is to of course, “take the best player available”, but if every team followed this idea the draft would be a lot more predictable. Your rankings might more closely match those of scouting directors who have more to consider and who do more than just compile a list of the BPA’s in order. I am curious as to how you foresee the first two rounds going down and hope that you are planning to publish your predictions.

I’m sorry. South Carolina having a pitchers park park factor is patently ridiculous and is a flagship reason to be wary of reading too much into this stuff. It is a hitters park, a home run paradise. i mean, it is no Coors field – and Ray Tanners lineups always have enough juice to get some 4-baggers in any par – but it is no pitchers park

Also, what might be more useful that Sced Strength when looking at hitters is the quality of pitchers the batters have faced. For instance… the SEC (opposite of its usual rep of gorilla-ball) has the lowest ERA in the NCAA this year

These types of articles are the best ones. Not a lot of surprises on the list. Everyone is pretty much there. Posey may be higher than some want him, but it’s hard to find anyone who doesn’t love the guy lately.

What the heck are we supposed to make of this guy’s season? He came in with the “generational prospect” tag on him, as many reputable prospect analysts said last year that he was a better overall prospect than David Price.

After coming back from the hand injury, he’s been solid but hardly spectacular. Do we just give him a pass and keep him as the top prospect no matter what others do?

I agree through #6 (Weeks).

I would probably go 7 Havens, 8 Gillaspie, 9 Thames, 10 Davis, 11 David Cooper, 12 Wallace due to position scarcity and park factors.

Gillaspie was the Cape Cod MVP and his stats mirror Havens.

Thames ranking is based on park factor and athleticsism .

Cooper’s stats are almost identical with Wallace’s and his park factor is worse. Of course he fields like a DH.

How quickly could he rise to the majors? I think he would probably start in Hi A, spend his first year there and at double. Then in his second year make his major league debut in september. Does this seem like a reasonable ascension through the minors or is this too optimistic?

So how do you guys rank these players, all things considered?

IMHO, there’s a very clear top five (who happen to be your top five) and a very large middle class of players who rank from six on. I think I like Havens more than Weeks (Havens has a smoother swing and better plate discipline) and Wallace more than Davis (just a longer track record of success and again better plate discipline) but those are nits based on personal preference.

Am I right that positional factors should weight enough to boost Posey and Beckham higher than the first basemen?

To quote Reverend Lovejoy, yes with a but, and no with an if. Again, this draft comes down to preference because I believe its a deep group of college hitters but you run into the fact that there isn’t much differentation between the groups.

Is it right to have say Beckham and Posey ahead of Smoak and Alonso? If you’re a team like the Giants and have a significant investment in Angel Villalona at first base and Methusula Omar Vizquel at shortstop, then the answer is probably no. If you’re a team like the Orioles with a heavy investment in Matt Wieters, then the answer is probably yes.

How much slack should we cut Alvarez due to the injury?

Some. That kind of injury definitely saps your hitting ability. But I still have nits about Alvarez from his past performances, and those are the things that knock in my mind. Is a third baseman long term is the big one in my mind? I tend to lean towards no, and that opens up the long term question of is he a better hitter than Alonso and Smoak. And I tend to lean toward no there. The strikeout numbers at Vandy are what scare me most of all.

It’s hard to say what’s going to happen come June right now, but if Alvarez comes out and asks for Teixeria money, the fact that he’s to Teixeira what Jared Weaver was to Mark Prior is going to cause him to drop.

I get the impression that Miami players usually do better than you would expect (football and baseball).

So I would say the Miami guys have less of chance to completely bomb.

Of course I went there, so my opinion is biased.

I suppose it’s simply a philosophical difference, but I really don’t buy into the school of thought that you value hitters more because they play at a premium position, but it’s JMO. I’m starting to warm up to Beckham a bit more, and I think he’ll always be average defensively, great hitter for average, and above average power for his position. I just don’t see him as a 30 HR guy because of his frame and swing…He’ll probably hit around 20 HR at his peak, which is still great for a SS.

I’m still not as high as others are on Posey…I just don’t see him hitting more than 15-20 HRs in a season. Posey has a low floor but not as high as a ceiling as some may think. Like I said it’s just a philosophical difference, but I want the best bat in my line-up, not simply who can hit well for their position.

Oh and I think Alonso is the safest pick, he’s really the most polished hitter in the draft, just not a ton of potential

.391/.569/.471

have watched him almost every game this year. kids a baller. he can put the ball exactly where he wants. so good. although he is short, he’ll be in the bigs.

when thinking about the schedule a player faces is that even if two players face the same team the quality of pitching can be night-and-day different. If the teams meet on a weekend the best pitchers will be thrown but if they meet Tues or Weds the worst starters will start… and the fact that the SoS ratings have a hard time comparing Western and East/Midwest teams