Jason Heyward - can't miss? - Minor League Ball

Jason Heyward - can't miss?

by sully10x on May 5, 2008 3:10 PM EDT Comment 42 comments

How low is this kids floor?

Only injuries (knock on wood) seem to be the only thing that could possibly stop him from being a productive major leaguer someday.

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How low is his floor? Well, assuming that he’s at least good enough to make the major leagues (quite a high floor in itself), I’d say . . .John Mabry?

by mrkupe on May 5, 2008 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mabry

If Jason Heyward has a better chance of being the next Sandy Koufax (yes, I know he’s a pitcher) than John Mabry

by sully10x on May 5, 2008 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

lol

I guess I’m not sure what you were looking for, then . . .do you want a downside comp that makes Heyward look like a mortal lock to be a perennial All Star, or do you want the truth about a very talented kid who is nonetheless a long way from the major leagues?

Mabry played in parts of 14 major league seasons, putting up a couple of fine seasons, some stinkers, and a lot of mediocrity. IMO to suggest that a 19 y/o kid playing solid ball in the Sally League has that kind of FLOOR says at least as much about him and how bright his future is as any sort of pie-in-the-sky upside comp that you want to throw out, and probably a whole lot more.

by mrkupe on May 5, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True nuff

but we both know that is way too nuanced a view on a prospect for some on here. I, for one, DESPISE (I know you hate the caps, sorry) the upside and lowside comparisons myself but I’ll play along… big league floorside comps for Heyward: Erik Anthony, Al Martin, Dave Clark. Of course I AM just playing along here. I have seen one, two-minute long grainy video of Heywrd playing HS ball… he looks like he is more than holding his own so far in the Sally. Who knows, he just might be the next Willie McCovey though he runs better than Willie ever did. Of course wheeels isnt why Stretch was Stretch.

by casejud on May 5, 2008 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Floor

His floor is that he never makes the major leagues. Lots of players dominate the low minors and are exposed as they move up the ranks. I think he has the potential to be a stud but he is only in Low A at the moment and his OBP is a good, but not great, .792. If I had to compare his floor to a specific player it would be along the lines of Ben Grieve.

That being said, I feel he has an extremely high ceiling and could potentially be the next Bobby Abreu.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on May 5, 2008 3:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re

well, the question is not particularly well asked in that, like already stated, his floor is that he dosent make it to the majors. it is not like he is a sure fire major leaguer by any means.
i think the mabry comp. is fair for a major leaguer who was a good spec but didnt reach his ceiling.

not too sure about abreau, i believe heyward is larger than bobby is and it is accepted that he probably wont be a SB threat as he moves up.

as a braves fan, obviously i am excited about him.

by jsmall404 on May 5, 2008 4:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My general point...

It’s rare that a player comes along with his set of SKILLS, not just tools. He has enough that I believe he will succeed even if he doesnt reach his potential, which is plus power, contact, discipline. All this from a 6’4 athlete that is a student of the game.

Just curious, who is the last prospect that fit all of these descriptions?

by sully10x on May 5, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

to be honest

there are alot of prospects that can hit for plus power, contact,and have discipline.

and i agree, if his ceiling is a perennial all star, then of course he can be a solid regular without reaching that.

by jsmall404 on May 5, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Personally, I’m not the biggest Heyward fan because I don’t see anything super special with his skill set. Finding an 18-year-old corner player with plus power and contact (sorry, where is the objective evidence for plus patience?) should be something to be proud of, but it’s not rare. And honestly, I’m not seeing plus contact skills so far (17.2% K rate).

Furthermore, some scouts were worried about his ability to play the outfield. Maybe he could be an outfielder in the sense that Adam Dunn is an outfielder, but Adam Dunn the outfielder isn’t much better than an average corner outfielder.

So my question is, what else does this guy have to offer? I hear nothing about plus or even average defense where he currently stands (but in fairness, I haven’t heard anything about his defense since before the draft) and I’ve only heard from a long time ago that he has a borderline plus arm.

This guy is certainly toolsy and and a majority of scouts agree this guy could be a perennial All-Star, but when I think of can’t-miss, I think of Tim Lincecum, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Cole Hamels, Alex Gordon—toolsy guys who consistently put up production in contrast to their competition’s age level. Nobody can deny Heyward is currently a top prospect, but let’s save the can’t-miss labels so they don’t lose their glitz and glam.

by elrey34 on May 5, 2008 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Way too early....

.....to make the assessment that he’s a “can’t miss,” in my opinion.

Greive is a good example of how a seemingly “can’t miss” prospect can do just that.

Another bat in recent memory that I think is comparable to Heyward’s is Calvin Pickering. I know he was a 1B/DH type, rather than a toolsy OF like Heyward, but as far as pure hitting abilty, I would say Pickering was considered just as advanced of a hitter (if not more advanced) at the age of 19….and he missed (pretty badly, too).

The kid’s got loads of talent, no doubt. But there have been better hitters than him who have failed.

by dkny22 on May 5, 2008 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's a horrible comp

Heyward is oozing athleticism, has a plus arm in RF…. Pickering looked like Mo Vaughn but less quick.

That said, he strikes too much (or at least did until the past two weeks, in which time he’s basically been Ichiro in that department) and his power hasn’t really shown.

Still, to be anything but encouraged by his performance to date would be silly. I’ve just read some nice praise of him from BA on their hotsheet and from Kevin Goldstein. And since we’re here, John has been a big fan of his since before last years’ draft.

His “floor” is naturally a guy who can’t hit breaking balls in AA and never makes it any further. But I think he’ll almost assuredly make the majors. I don’t know how quickly he’ll be pushed, but I think his chances of making the majors are as good as any prospect his age and/or level. The biggest question in my mind is where he ends up defensively and how much of average he hits for. He’s got the speed and arm for RF, but with his size, he may be better suited for 1B. Also, if he grows any more, he strike zone could get prohibitably large. You don’t want to give ML pitchers a bigger strikezone than you have to. Basically, I think he’ll be a star if he can keep the BA around or above .300. If it sinks below .280, he’ll still probably be a positive contributer, but not necessarily an all-star. If it’s below .260, he’ll probably be a fringe regular.

by mraver on May 5, 2008 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please read the fine print

I conceded that Pickering’s other tools can’t compare to Heyward’s and was comparing Pickering’s BAT ONLY to Heyward’s.

Apparently, you were too, as I don’t see many references to Heyward’s other tools other than hitting in your post. For the most part, I think that’s what most of the posters in this thread are referring to when they talk about his ceiling or his floor. HIS BAT. Afterall, his glove, arm and speed will only get him so far.

Having said that, please take a look at Pickering’s numbers as a 19 year old…and then take a look at his numbers as a 20-23 year old. My reason for choosing him as a comp was because he was as close to a can’t miss hitting prospect as you can get. Maybe there were questions about his weight or his glove, but there were none about his bat. The purpose was to show how a guy like that CAN miss.

by dkny22 on May 5, 2008 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guess I'm going to end my Boycott of the site

I’m going to have to say his ceiling is Ryan Howard with fewer K’s and more speed.

by Bravesin07 on May 5, 2008 4:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Relax a little bit

There are thousands of players who failed at baseball, hundreds who were at one point considered can’t miss prospects.

First, the time table that posters here have is greatly tainted. The kid has under 200 AB as a professional. He has great ARL this year but he isn’t tearing the cover off the ball. Lets wait for a full year or two in the minors before we consider him a top 10 prospect.

The way you are talking about him,

“It’s rare that a player comes along with his set of SKILLS, not just tools. He has enough that I believe he will succeed even if he doesnt reach his potential, which is plus power, contact, discipline. All this from a 6’4 athlete that is a student of the game.”

Just curious, who is the last prospect that fit all of these descriptions? The way you are talking about him is that he is an A-Rod, Griffey, or Upton. Probably the three most “sure things” in recent memory. Is that where you would like to place him?

And to Braves, Ryan Howard with more speed and less Ks? Thats insane. You think you are going to see 50+ HR coming from a center fielder(which if he plays center negates the Ryan Howard comp) ?

Then what? He’ll play gold glove defense, steal 50 bases, and his BB/K rate will be 4:1?

I am very much against comps, they dilute the information field. However I think you are thinking more of a Dave Winfield. I’m not saying I agree, but that is slightly more appropriate than Ryan Howard.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on May 5, 2008 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Even if he is a RF that still isn't Ryan Howard

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on May 5, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he does have those skills

but not to the extent those guys did no…the D Lee and Winfield comps are good when just looking at skills and how they can translate to numbers.

by jsmall404 on May 5, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Skills

I understand what the comparisons are and the reason i made the Winfield one is because from the way everyone talking about him that seems to be his ceiling. However, it is utterly ridiculous to consider Heyward a can’t miss prospect. His skills haven’t translated into production yet, he hasn’t proven enough to make anyone think he is a “can’t miss prospect.”

He could be good, I expect him to do well. But to say he is a generational talent is insane.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on May 5, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

For God’s sakes, there is a reason this kid wasn’t a top ten pick last year.

Very good prospect, but he’s no better than guys like Moustakas, Vitters, Ahrens, or Burgess.

Chill out, it’s been one freakin’ month.

by deezle on May 5, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol

if you followed the dratf and predraft you would know that him dropping was maybe the biggest surprise in the draft and there was no reason for it. the fact that those guys were drafted in front of him in no way makes them better than him..as evidenced by heyward having no troubles in adjusting to pro ball and vitters, moustakas and ahrens having a rough go of it.

by jsmall404 on May 5, 2008 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

with that said

he is not a cant miss prospect…yet

by jsmall404 on May 5, 2008 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol part two

Heyward was never considered a top five pick like Moustakas and Vitters were – if you dispute this then back it up with some credible links. He was up there with those two, but I don’t recall any legitimate publication putting him ahead. Every top ranking service had him behind those two in their final rankings.

But you’re right, I must not have followed the draft or predraft info last year because I don’t agree you, a Braves fanboy, that Heyward = God after one month of pro ball.

I’m still not sure if you’re funny or just sad.

by deezle on May 5, 2008 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

“I don’t recall any legitimate publication putting him ahead.”

Here’s John Sickels, June 2, 2007: “He’s definitely a top ten prospect, but here’s the thing about Heyward that really intrigues me. When I look over his scouting reports, and watch the video, and talk with people, I like him better all the time. In fact, I like him better than I like Vitters or Moustakas at this point. I think he’s the best high school position player in the draft.”
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2007/6/2/151350/2254

Since the draft, of course:
Heyward (159 ABs) .308/.352/.453
Moustakas (137 ABs) .226/.298/.314
Vitters (65 ABs) .138/.174/.185

Look, I think all three are going to be terrific hitters. But John Sickels, at least, felt that Heyward was every bit the equal of Vitters and Moustakas, and possibly even better; and in an incredibly small sample size at the beginning of their careers, his gut instinct looks pretty good.

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on May 5, 2008 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No offense to John or his opinion on Heyward at the time, but even he admits that he usually doesn’t see any of the top HS draft prospects each year. Even in that analysis he was going by other scouting reports and video from the internet.

In my prior post I was referring to publications that actually follow draft prospects on a yearly basis, such as BA, BP, PGCC, or even Patrick Ebert’s Brewerfan site. None of those four had Heyward ahead of Moustakas or Vitters, yet everyone is ready to anoint Heyward a stud and well above those two despite one month and roughly 100 AB. Sorry, I just find that a bit preposterous, even though I will certainly admit they are all in the same tier.

by deezle on May 5, 2008 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I kinda agree...

Well, actually, I really LIKE comparisons but I agree they can “dilute the information field” but that is only when they are done poorly. I read an interesting article on PGCC where the writer stated that comps are prominantly used in scouting for descriptive purposes (to say what a guy looks and plays like when the other person hasnt seen them) . That is how I have always used them so to me the #1 things in a comp is that a player has to bat the same side as the comp… simialr qualities as a hitter…speed…defense… and, yes, RACE. I know I may catch hell for this but someone out there may not know that say, Reggie Willits, is white. Jason Heyward can’t be similar to Dave Winfield because Heyward is a lefty bat and, besides, its ridiculous anyways right? I don’t have a handle on how good Heyward could be myself. He looks good so far.

by casejud on May 5, 2008 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh

I don’t think race is an essential part of a guy’s baseball skill set.

If you need a description of a guy’s race to visualize him playing baseball, you’re both bigoted and far too literal-minded.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2008 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clearly

you’ve never heard of the Angry Negro Skill it strikes fear in opposing pitchers Gary Sheffield is the best known example.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on May 5, 2008 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What-EVER

LOL. Go ahead and call me bigoted if you want but if someone is describing say, Chris Carter-Oak, and they compare him physically to Frank Thomas, I know EXACTLY what kind of player we are looking at and of course it is a LITERAL description. A players race isnt essential to a comp but it is another piece of information. Comping a lefty bat to a righty is way more annoying IMO than comping a white and black player. I just want to know anyways, thats all.

by casejud on May 6, 2008 6:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My take

Ceiling: Derek Lee
Floor: Never makes it to the major leagues

by was385 on May 5, 2008 4:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll take a Derek Lee clone

by Bravesin07 on May 5, 2008 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

DLEE

wasn’t that the most notable comp before the draft?

i like the jayhey kid a lot,
and i hope he stays in the OF

by god allah star on May 5, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Awesome dude

He will either…

be an all-star

not make the big leagues

or somewhere in between.

thanks, Case

Seriously, these kind of comps do not say ANYTHING! Or am I wrong. I just dont get it.

I can understand saying “I dont know” when someone asks me what will happen with prospect A but I wont say he might be Willy Mays or Willy Taveras or some such nonsense. A guy said that Willie Mays thing on here last year about Chris Young of the D’Backs last year BTW.

For instance, I do not say that either Carlos Triunfel will develop into miguel Tejada or a bust. I say he will not become a major leaguer, period.

Josh Vitters on the other hand might develop into the next Dave Kelton or… Eddie Matthews. :-)

by casejud on May 5, 2008 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what's up your butt?

Seriously man, the guy asked a question and I gave an answer. If it doesn’t help you or you don’t like it, that’s great, keep it to yourself and don’t be an ass about it.

His floor is he doesn’t make the majors like any other player and with his skill set, his ceiling is an athletic lefty power bat with a good feel for the strikezone, ability to make contact, and some speed, like a…. DEREK LEE. I’m not saying he’s going to be exactly the same or he will be a clone of him but with his tools, that kind of comp is perfectly reasonable. Is it likely that he reaches that? Probably not, but that is what his ceiling is. Obviously I’m not saying there are two options for his career: Lee or bust, so before you jump to conclusions, maybe you should think it out a bit.

by was385 on May 5, 2008 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I not mad at ya

but you were essentially saying 3 options… No big leaues, Darek Lee or saomewhere in between. You dont REALLY think he isnt going to be a big leaguer if you think hes as good as Darek Lee right? Thats all I am saying. Just come out and say “Hes going to be as good as Darek Lee!” If that is hat you think. Thats all Im saying.

Nothing agaist you…I just think LOwside/ Upside comps are kinda dumb. They dont say anything or state any real opinion. In My Opinion. Didn’t meen to seem like I was on your case and nothing up butt :-)

by casejud on May 6, 2008 6:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HE'S A TEENAGER!

As polished as he is for his age, he’s still got a long way to go. Do you want me to sugarcoat it and say that his floor is that he is a productive major leaguer but not an all-star. You can’t call that. There are so many talented players who move up to AA and can’t hit breaking balls and that is it.

My opinion is that if everything goes right, he has the tools to develop into a Derek Lee-like player but with each and every prospect, the floor is that he doesn’t make it to the majors. And how is it bad that I think he can be as good as Derek Lee but not make the majors? A couple of years ago I would have told you that Rick Ankiel absolutely would have been a top of the rotation starter but guess what? Prospects are very volatile. I’ll normally only give an upside comp but since the QUESTION specifically asked his downside, well it’s obviously that he doesn’t make the majors.

by was385 on May 6, 2008 7:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

another guy on that Rome team is impressing me is Freeman

He just hit a triple and is hitting nearly .300. He has a normal BABIP, 16% LD, and only 13 K’s in 116 PA.

by Bravesin07 on May 5, 2008 7:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Big fan of his too

He could have some serious power later on because he’s got a lot of room to fill out that frame. He reminds me a bit of Adam LaRoche except better contact ability since he’s got a more conventional swing. Has the same arm strength coming from a pitching background and is supposedly very good in the field. He’s one of my big sleeper picks for the next couple of years.

by was385 on May 5, 2008 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heyward

It will take him some time….........AA will be the test. He’s doing fine in low A , and it’s still early in the season. Give him time, AA you’ll a get better look at what you see. Forget High A He will Surpass it.

by bikerider60 on May 5, 2008 8:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Floyd

He really reminds me of Cliff Floyd in his prospect days, back when he had knees and could run. They both have very good speed (for someone that size especially), similar size, plate discipline, power potential.

Heyward was considered a top 5 talent by several publications, which is why shortly after the draft BA called the pick “a steal” by the Braves.

by glennpan on May 5, 2008 11:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs