Shadow Twins Thoughts
Working on my draft board, and looking at my Shadow Twins Farm System and thinking ahead to the draft, I'd like to concentrate on getting some position players and impact hitters into the system this time. Yes, yes, I know, "don't draft for need," "best player available," etc.
The Twins draft 14th, 27, and 31st, a chance to get some nice talent flow into the system. I don't know what the Real Twins will do at this point, but I'll try to have some suggestions about that later this month. For my Shadow Twins, I would LOVE it if Kyle Skipworth, Buster Posey, Tanner Scheppers, or Gordon Beckham (four particular favorites) would drop to 14, but will that happen? I kind of doubt it. at this point. What about this?
14) Jemile Weeks, 2B
27) Ike Davis, OF-1B
31) Reese Havens, SS
Any chance of that happening?
Further thoughts: the failure rate of early-round pitchers compared to hitters is such that I'm leaning against drafting pitchers in the first round unless I'm REALLY sure of them. I overdrafted Nevin Griffith last year and don't want to repeat that. If Scheppers was there at 14 I'd snare him, as I really like him a great deal, but I'm not sure about the other pitchers likely to be around at mid-first-round.
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50 comments
Comments
chance
i think there is a pretty good chance of that happening. weeks should definitely be there at 14, and i would say you have a pretty good chance at davis and havens with those picks. davis could go earlier, and you might have to take havens at 27 to keep him away from boston, but you could always sub a guy like david cooper or conor gillaspie in for one of those guys and get similar value.
by fewgoodcards on May 5, 2008 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like a middle infielder first
If Weeks is there, I’d take him. Plus, I really think they should pass on pitchers in the first round.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 5, 2008 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
secret weapon
Secret weapon in the draft: Eric Thames, Pepperdine OF…..
by John Sickels on May 5, 2008 3:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Do you think
the Twins poor track record with hitters compared to pitchers is because of the organization or because they draft so poorly?
"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-
by future on May 5, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A little of column A
and a little of column B probably. They have developed a batting champion and an MVP in the past 5 years, plus Kubel and Cuddyer who are decent players. They have nothing special in the minors currently, although there is still hope for Parmelee, Revere, and even Plouffe to some extent.
by Diggity Dino on May 5, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love
kubel here but other than a half a season last year he hasn’t shown much his OBP is like .260 this year and K/BB is horrible.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on May 5, 2008 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Morneau yes
But Mauer seems to be the kind of talent that you can’t f-up.
(and Morneau really didn’t deserve that MVP IMO and I don’t believe much in end of the season awards.
Cuddyer seems solid, but not incredible…you’d think with some poor seasons before their AL Central run they would have gotten much more out of the draft position.
"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-
by future on May 5, 2008 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
irrelevant comment
It doesn’t matter if you think Morneau deserved that MVP or your opinion of end-of-year awards. The point is he has developed into an elite 1b slugger. The MVP just illustrates that point.
Morneau’s contribution to winning games for the Twins is the same, and significant, whether he won an award or not and whether or not you like his award.
And ‘solid but not incredible” is excellent. Very few prospects become “incredible”. Getting “solid” players from the system helps you win, especially when your system has produced pitching depth, an MVP and a batting champ. Every player can’t be incredible but the system already has produced two of those, so how is a solid player to compliment that a bad thing
by nms on May 6, 2008 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's
Reese Havens profile?
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on May 5, 2008 3:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just looking
at the stats I feel a weeks Havens picks would make me happy.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on May 5, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
eh
He was a possible top 30-50 pick out of HS and turned down something like 800k-1 mil from the BoSox. He then proceeded to be an utterly mediocre SEC SS as a freshman and sophomore. Granted, it can be tough for an 19 yo to adjust to the SEC but the fact that he showed no improvement as a sophomore did not look good. He has had good Cape league stints though and has finally had a good year. He almost certainly isn’t enough of an athlete to be a big league SS though, probably a 2b or 3b. Could possibly catch. Even with his good year he is probably only the 3rd or 4th best shortstop in his own DIVISION of the SEC and would have been 4th or 5th best if Tony Delmonico hadn’t transferred.
Solid bat, fringy glove. i’m not sold on him but i can see how others are.
When looking at the stats keep in mind South Carolina’s park is a hitter’s park
by nms on May 6, 2008 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good chance I think
With all of the other talent at the top, there’s a good chance at Weeks at 14. The other two have a decent chance as well.
by acerimusdux on May 5, 2008 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re
all 3 will be there but id like to think they can get more upside if willing to spend the money.
word is that weeks is a little overrated ( i saw him in person – speed is legit, power really isnt)
scheppers and beckham will be long long gone i have to believe.
also, red sox love reese havens, already drafted him once…i think they will take him in the first round if he is there.
by jsmall404 on May 5, 2008 3:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
more upside
i’m interested to see who you are talking about. those are 3 of the best position prospects in the draft. i can see the upside argument with a guy like aaron hicks over weeks, but hicks has a long way to go to get to where weeks is now. who out of the position players has more upside than davis and havens at the end of the first and sandwich round?
by fewgoodcards on May 5, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re
well, at 31, most of the obvious upside guys will be gone. I think Havens would be a very good pick there.
when talking about upside, i wasnt talking just about position players. there will be guys who drop that if they are willing to spend the money will have more upside than weeks, no doubt about it.
weeks is a 5’9 average fielding 2B with a ton of speed and some pull power. he is a nice player but probably not in the top 15 talent wise.
by jsmall404 on May 5, 2008 4:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
position players
john said he was looking at bats, so i was just considering position players. the only position players i have ranked ahead of weeks are alvarez, t. beckham, posey, g. beckham, hosmer, smoak, skipworth, and alonso. i think all of those guys will be gone, so weeks and brett wallace are the next best sticks and i can see why you might want to takes weeks over wallace due to position.
by fewgoodcards on May 5, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
i wouldnt disagree with your rankings of position players…idk why john would focus on pitching players when there could some good arms available at 14 though since alot of the pos. players would be gone.
if wallace could stay at 3rd, id much rather have him over weeks.
by jsmall404 on May 5, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weeks.....
I really do think that weeks will be there at 14, but I am not totally sold on the fact that he would be the right pick. They need positional players in the worst way but I think that there is a little more depth in college hitters and they can get some really good value in the first four rounds.
Wouldn’t your team be better off if there was a guy like Ethan Martin, Shooter Hunt, or Tim Melville there with that pick at 14, and then grab college hitters like Ike Davis (great choice), Dennis Raben (falling like a rock), or a guy like Dominic de la Osa out of Vandy in the 3rd or 4th round. De la Osa to me is a classic Twins draft guy.
Weeks wouldn’t be a disaster, but I think more value could be found on the mound at that pick
Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
Crash Davis
by Terry Ryan Jr on May 5, 2008 4:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Can't find it.
John, you recently traded a pitcher from your shadow Twins, to mirror the Johan trade. Who did you trade for who again?
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
by maxisagod on May 5, 2008 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
don't recall this
Don’t recall this….in the Shadow Universe I went ahead and did the Johan Trade since I DID draft him in Rule 5 like the real Twins did.
I don’t recall making a trade of a current guy….I have Aaron Harang and Joe Blanton original Shadow Draftees anchoring my rotation right now.
by John Sickels on May 5, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was it
You used the money you saved from trading Johan to sign some of your draft pick to long term deal. Wait, does that mean you have Gomez and Guerra on your Shadow team/ system now?
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
by maxisagod on May 5, 2008 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
Yeah, that was it….I traded Johan, took the money thus freed and locked up Granderson (another Shadow draftee) and Harang.
Yes, I have Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, and Humber now. I should do a revised list.
by John Sickels on May 5, 2008 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ike Davis
I’m really starting to like Ike Davis for some reason….would it be a serious overdraft to pick him at 14, Havens at 27, and someone like Galloway at 31?
by John Sickels on May 5, 2008 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Galloway @ 31?
I’d be surprised Galloway lasts that long.
by jfish26101 on May 5, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
I just looked and BA has him at 40 on their draft board so I guess it’s possible. Don’t you usually have like a group of 5 for each pick and the highest one that was there with that pick in RL is your pick? Your thought process certainly seem reasonable.
by jfish26101 on May 5, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
davis
i think it would be an overdraft at 14, but if you like him that much you might have to take him there to guarantee that you get him.
by fewgoodcards on May 5, 2008 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ike
He is suffering from a rib injury right now – don’t know if it has to do with going back and forth between hitting doubles/homers and striking out kids in the 9th.
Right now it may be a perceived overdraft, but being the son of a former major leaguer, Ike has the determination to make it to the pros. He has a smooth swing, longer than Wallace’s, but sweet. I really like his patience and willingness to go the other way. He is extremely focused and very clutch, lots of hits when the Sun Devils need it.
I have seen a lot of great Sun Devils go through Tempe (Conrad, Larish, Ethier, Duffy, Buck, Pedroia, Romine, Sogard, Spencer), but the three that are here now (Wallace, Davis, and Paramore) have been the most impressive.
by gunkdog on May 5, 2008 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Davis vs Thames
Davis has the athletic ability and the arm to play RF although his range would be limited.
My concern about Davis is his park factor (118).
Thames’ park factor at Pepperdine is 71. Thames has much more range but I understand not enough to stay in CF. His arm would relegate him to LF.
Bryan Smith at BP questions Thames’ transition to wood. Do you agree?
by lonestar on May 5, 2008 5:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
dunno
Don’t know. Thames is awfully impressive this year with a huge improvement compared to ‘07. He kind of reminds me of Curtis Granderson in the sense that people panned Curt’s ability to play center, and his ability to hit with wood, when he was in college, but he proved everyone wrong. I don’t know if Thames has the same kind of “intangibles” that Granderson has though.
by John Sickels on May 5, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My Mets Mock
18 Isaac Galloway
22 David Cooper
33 Jason Castro
by acerimusdux on May 5, 2008 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My Mets Mock
18 Ethan Martin
22 Brett DeVall
33 Petey Paramore
It will be fun doing the mock draft this year assuming I am free whatever day is chosen because the Mets have a number of picks this year
by mtk52983 on May 5, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mets draft
Well, I meant shadow draft rather than Mock
Real life, I would hope someone might fall to the Mets due to signing demands. I suppose it’s unlikely Hosmer would fall that far, but Gerrit Cole, maybe. And I suspect they will grab at least one pitcher in those three picks.
And I would like a catcher somewhere. It looks to me like Castro’s bat is better, though Paramore gets raves about his defense. The Canadian kid Brett Lawrie might be interesting if he’s there later on.
And DeVall is interesting, but Lobstein seems somewhat similar but maybe more projection. I’m leaning towards Lobstein if it’s between those 2.
by acerimusdux on May 5, 2008 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
knowing the Mets
all 3 of those picks could be relievers.
http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/
by lemonjello on May 5, 2008 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Paramore
Great selection for any team – great batting eye, power from both sides, elected ASU’s captain this season, and a great defensive catcher (calls the games on his own).
I expect Preston ‘Petey’ Paramore to fly through the minors
by gunkdog on May 5, 2008 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
paramore
Power is his weakest tool. I don’t believe he projects to hit with much power with wood, although he does have a great eye and hits for good contact.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on May 5, 2008 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
all
those guys seem a little early, especially Castro at 33
by nms on May 6, 2008 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Castro
I was thinking along the lines of guys I would be sure of getting there. In reality, Galloway may not last to 33, but he’s likely going to still be there at 22. So you don’t need to take him at 18. But in reality, I think you would also be a bit flexible and work off a list, and take whoever falls that you like.
So I saw this more as an exercise in picking guys I thought were maybe a bit under rated; I wouldn’t mind these guys at those spots.
And Jason Castro is a guy who I think is getting under rated. I think he’s getting hurt too much by 100 AB in 2007 trying to come back from an injury. After that though, he went to Cape Cod where he outhit both Posey (easily) and G. Beckham (IHO-narrowly, esp considering SO rate) on the same team. Then in this college season hit .376/.427/.618 for a team with a good schedule, and park factors in the low 80s. And while striking out only once per 8.5 PA.
Defensively, his arm is only average, but everything else is there. The combination of power with a high contact rate is something I really look for; I think that makes him a relatively low risk to hit at higher levels. And his ceiling really isn’t bad either as he’s got some good power potential for a guy who should be good behind the plate.
by acerimusdux on May 6, 2008 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like John's thinking
The Twins do need position talent with an emphasis on college players. I share his bias against pitchers although the Twins need frontline talent – as all teams do.
Weeks is likely the best position player available.
I don’t like Shooter Hunt’s control and doubt he will be available. The one pitcher who has distinguished himself is Ethan Martin. That could be a tough call – if he’s still available.
I ilke Reese Havens at #27 or #31, but I also like Tyler Ladendorf and wouldn’t take both. for the sake of discussion and with the hope that Luke Hughes is incipient, I will take Ladendorf at #31 after take Eric Thames at #27.
With the next 3 rounds I’d take pitchers.
by lonestar on May 5, 2008 5:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wallace?
What does he do for you? It’s still possible he could be there at 27 or 31 although it would surprise me personally.
by jfish26101 on May 5, 2008 5:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
bat
Like the bat, wonder about position. I know “don’t draft for need” but my Shadow Twins have Morneau at first base and Lars Anderson in the minors. If Wallace is a first baseman down the line, that position gets clogged up fast.
by John Sickels on May 5, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
but I think he has enough athleticism that he could play a decent LF. Was just curious in case Davis isn’t there because he seems to be moving up draft boards while Wallace’s stock seems stagnant. I wasn’t aware you had Lars on the farm as well but he certainly isn’t looking like a sure thing at this point. :(
by jfish26101 on May 5, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Athletic
Wallace is actually athletic, and he has played a great 3B this year for the Sun Devils. He has displayed some speed throughout his college career. He has a great batting eye as well while being the Pac 10 Triple Crown winner last year (contending for it this year).
Just because he is a masher doesn’t mean he has to be a 1B . . . . he played 1B out of need last year since the Sun Devils had Retherford and Hall at 3B.
If you look at Wallace’s swing, it’s quick and short to the ball . . . . surprisingly it isn’t long (like Ike Davis).
I think you have to take the best available player.
by gunkdog on May 5, 2008 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wallace, +1
His swing is awesome. Extremely quick and short.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on May 5, 2008 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure Havens makes it past Boston at 30
They drafted him out of high school and made a big push to sign him. So I’d guess if you want him, you’d probably have to grab him at #27 and Ike Davis would still be there in the comp.
I’m not sold enough on Weeks to grab him at 14, mostly because I’m not sure his bat translates well to wood. In a world where you’re not worried about finding high end pitchers and have Lars Anderson in high A ball, it’s a shot worth taking maybe though. In real life, I’d rather see the Twins grab a high-end pitcher. My fear is it will come down to Friedrich vs. Hunt though, and Friedrich’s ceiling is more Ztio/Hill than ace and Hunt seems like the exact kind of pitcher that would not mesh well with the team’s organizational beliefs (If history tells us anything, they’ll slow down his delivery and where will his stuff go from there?)
I thought I had an idea where the Twins should go with this draft a couple of weeks ago. Now, I’m a little more lost.
by jewscott on May 5, 2008 7:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You could take Havens at 27
and then one of Wallace, Davis, Dykstra or Thames at 31 if they are there (one of them will be).
by jfish26101 on May 6, 2008 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Biggest Surprise
I think the biggest surprise for me is that current high school seniors and ASU signees Kyle Skipworth and Eric Hosmer are ranked higher than Brett Wallace, Ike Davis, and Petey Paramore.
I guess I am one of those guys who is going to spend big bucks on 1st round picks, I would rather have guys who understand what it is like to be on the road away from the family and who have matured a bit.
by gunkdog on May 5, 2008 10:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Reese Havens...
I haven’t seen very much of him, but I like a lot of what I actually have seen. Very nice swing he has.
www.baseball-intellect.com
by NovaO on May 6, 2008 6:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Davis/Havens
In my Royals shadow draft, Davis and Havens are two guys I was hoping would be options at #36 in the sandwich round. Right now that doesn’t look likely as they look like good bets to go in the late first.
I’m thinking about Jordan Danks there now, maybe if David Cooper falls there in the wake of all of these first basemen stacked ahead of him. I still like Danks a lot. At the very least he’s a plus defensive center fielder who gets on base. I think he still has a lot of ceiling left.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on May 6, 2008 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs













