The Mock Draft and Accountability

by mrkupe on May 30, 2008 1:07 PM EDT Comment 25 comments

With the 2008 mock draft fast approaching, I thought it'd be fun to go back and take a look at our own previous efforts and offer a candid self-assessment. The rules are simple: if you've taken part in a mock draft before, post your picks and then your thoughts.

I did not take part in the 2007 draft, but I did draft in 2005 and 2006 for the White Sox. Here's 2005:

1---15---Wade Townsend, RHP
3---95---Josh Lindblom, RHP, Harrison HS, West Lafayette, Ind.
4---125--Chris Robinson, C, University of Illinois
5---155---Josh Zeid, RHP, New Haven CT HS

My thoughts: Not a great go at it for me, although I was a bit of a newbie at the time to analyzing draft prospects. Townsend has sucked, although in fairness he also blew his arm out almost immediately after signing. Lindblom went unsigned by the Astros in real-life and went on to college. He's flourished as a reliever this year and projects to go in the first several rounds as a hard-throwing closer candidate. Robinson was drafted by the Tigers and then traded to the Cubs. Looks like his bat has stagnated in Double A. Zeid went on to college at Vanderbilt and then Tulane, but has been wracked with injuries and has barely pitched. So 2 years later, one guy who looks like he's still a solid prospect and a bunch of organizational fodder. Eh.

2006 went a bit better for me:

Adrian Cardenas, SS, Florida HS
Cory Rasmus, RHP, Alabama HS
Joe Benson, C-OF, Illinois HS
Charles Brewer, RHP, Arizona HS
Ryan Jackson, SS, Florida HS

My thoughts: I was basically down to Chris Tillman and Cardenas for the pick at 29. Tillman went at #18 IIRC in the mock making it an easy decision for me. Cardenas has moved to 2B but looks awfully good so far. Stock rapidly rising, although he may ultimately slot in better as a corner OF from a defensive standpoint. Rasmus hurt his shoulder and hasn't pitched in the last couple of years, but given his youth and the Braves' ability to bring their pitchers along there's still time for something. Benson was raw when drafted and still raw now, but hasn't been a disappointment. He's going to take some time to develop but the talent assessment appears to have been accurate enough. Brewer went unsigned as an 18th round pick and honored his commitment at UCLA - he'd probably pitch better as a pro but he wouldn't go 135 today. Jackson, glove guy with questionable bat, went on to the University of Miami. He didn't do much last year but has started to blossom offensively in 2007. He'd probably project as a high floor low ceiling utility guy were he in the draft today, but that's still a valuable prospect and there are plenty of guys like that who go as early as the sandwich round.

Your turn.

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i did a look back in my first MOD for the phillies

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/5/12/508155/mod-i-phillies

i’m pretty satisfied with my drafting history.

i posted my drafting history in the Mock Organizational Diary, and surprisingly my philosophies haven’t really evolved. my reasoning has, but i think i’ll be doing it about the same this year as previously. i value defense very highly, i usually go after HS picks in the first 3 rounds. i usually take a college reliever later in the mock. any HS pitcher i take has to have a plus offspeed pitch. i don’t think i’ll go after a C or a 1B this year, both because i’ve done so early in the last two years, and because the phillies have no need.

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on May 30, 2008 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Who do the Phils have coming in C?

Howard obviously as a 1b… but is Ruiz really a long term starter?

by Alon on Jun 1, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Come to think...

Howard might be gone after next year anyway =-\

by Alon on Jun 1, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Roylas

I did the Royals draft for rounds 3-5. I drafted:

Tommy Toledo (unsigned, now at Florida)
Sam Runion (who was drafted in the 2nd round by KC)

And I can’t remember the last pick..

by adschofield on May 30, 2008 3:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I helped with the Mets last year

Landed Jordan Zimmerman, David Kopp, and Tony Thomas who are all doing well this year

I wish John would have compared the shadow draft to the Mets horrible real draft. Despite all of the talent it seems they are likely to take college relievers early and often again this year because they refuse to go over slot so the Mets mock is quite likely to be much better than the real thing this year

by mtk52983 on May 30, 2008 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nationals 2006

15. Pedro Beato, RHP, St. Petersburg JC (John’s Pick)
22. David Huff, LHP, UCLA
59. Alex White, RHP, North Carolina HS
70. Cody Johnson, 1B, Florida HS
91. Curtis Dupart, OF, Washington HS
121. Josh Rodriguez, INF, Rice
151. Ben Snyder, LHP, Ball State

I took over the Nationals draft when the guy who was supposed to do it didn’t show. John made the Beato pick and then I made the rest. Huff had a good season in A-ball and is off to a great start in AA this year. I was actually disappointed with the pick at the time as the guys I really wanted didn’t drop, but it worked out quite well. Teams didn’t want to meet Alex White’s bonus demands so he fell in the real draft and went to UNC, where he had a breakout season this year. White is a potential top 5 pick in next year’s draft. Johnson was a boom/bust guy who I wasn’t particularly enamored with, but seemed like good value in the back of the 2nd round. He had a huge year in 2007, but the strikeouts have caught up to him now. Dupart ended up at Georgia Tech and has pretty much been a total bust. Josh Rodriguez looks like he might reach the bigs as a utility guy. Ben Snyder was a steal. 16-5, 2.09 ERA, 145/32 K:BB in 151 IP in 2007. 1.87 ERA thru 10 starts in the CAL League so far in 2008. Doesn’t have big time stuff, but could be a back-of-the-rotation guy.

I’m quite happy about how this draft turned out (assuming my mock Nationals signed White). I didn’t realize Huff and Snyder had been doing so well.

by jeck on May 30, 2008 5:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dupart

could do some nice things next year. The kid’s talent is undeniable. When he is on he can be electric

by nms on May 30, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pleased with my 07

mock draft.

Josh Smoker (ok, I overdrafted him at 14 but Heyward was long gone and Smoker was signable and has some nice talent)
Will Middlebrooks, 3b, Texas HS
Jon Gilmore, 3b, Iowa HS (both projectable HS power hitters)
Jess Todd, RHP, U Arkansas (nice arm, good breaker and great feel for pitching. Love him. Hes rolling in the minors right now)
Nick Barnese, RHP, HS Calif (live arm, good moving FB, was great in pro debut last fall, will be in NYPL this year)
Dom De La Osa, IF-OF, Vandy (didn’t sign and regressed as a senior. Still a solid all-around player)

by nms on May 30, 2008 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Royals

I drafted for the Royals in rounds 1-3 of last year’s mock draft [adcho took over after that and apparently forgot who he picked….. :) ], and I am happy with the results. That said,

1st round – Matt Weiters – tearing up the Carolina League, looks to be well on his way to a solid MLB career.

2nd round – Nick Tepesch – currenly working out of the Missouri Tigers bullpen. He floated some high bonus demands shortly before the draft and ended up spurning the Red Sox to head to college. BA has speculated he could be a top pick in the 2010 draft.

3rd round – Julian Sampson – not doing great in the SAL, but he fit my M.O. as a tall, projectable pitcher with power stuff.

Adscho’s picks
4th round – Kevin Rhoderick – currently the closer for the OSU Beavers. Had a solid season.

5th round – Drake Britton – not sure how he’s doing, I don’t believe he is with a full season club at this point.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on May 30, 2008 7:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What was I thinking?

I was way off on who I thought I picked, lol…Hopefully those guys pan out :D

by adschofield on May 31, 2008 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

RE: Tepessch

I think that means we should get a compensatory pick at #66a.

This is the first year I’ve taken part in the official Sickels Mock Draft, but I’ve done my own Shadow Draft since 2003 and before then I did partial (1st rd in 01, first 3 rounds in 02)

"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain

by JM Barten on May 31, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rays - 2005

2007 and 2006 were a bit more collaborative and are more recent, but I’ll take some shame on 2005, which was pretty much just me, youalreadyknow and Tyler (and probably more me than the others)...

2005:
1--8th—Ricky Romero, LHP, Cal State Fullerton – Looking like a bust in Toronto’s farm system, but still better than the real pick.
Real pick: Wade Townsend

2--56th—Josh Wall, RHP, Walker, LA HS – Never really hit projections, mediocre in A+ in Dodgers system
Real pick: Chris Mason – doing OK in AAA, tore up in AA last year

3--88th—Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Byram, MS HS – Went to Mississippi St., likely high round draft choice
Real pick: Bryan Morris, who also didn’t sign, so nobody wins here.

4--118th-Caleb Moore, C, East Tennessee State University – Sucked in the Minny farm system, best I can tell is already out of baseball
Real pick: Jeremy Hellickson; FWIW, I believe Hellickson went much earlier than this in the mock. The best pick of this draft for the Rays.

5--148th—Mike Billek, RHP, University of Central Florida – Has struggled with injuries, and still has struggled even when not injured.
Real pick: Mike McCormick – was error-prone, successfully converted to catcher last year and showed big power potential, but now is struggling in full season ball.

So the Rays beat the mock Rays that year, but at least I can take solace that it was a year when old management was still at the helm….

I’ll let someone else take on our better years….

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on May 30, 2008 8:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm on the record in 05

for wanting McCutchen. I also lobbied for Jordan Schafer in the 5th round…but I wanted him as a pitcher.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on May 31, 2008 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or Volstad in the first

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on May 31, 2008 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Astros 07

Last season was my first draft, the Astros had no 1st or 2nd round pick so I went the high school route with all three picks hoping to find guys with some upside. With 2 of my selections in college, and the other getting dealt a tough break it’ll be a few years before I know for sure, but I still like my picks.

Round 3 Kevin Keyes Texas Longhorns. 58 ABs .345 4HRs, 4BBs, 23 K’s(ouch)

Round 4 Tommy Toledo Florida Gators 4-4 3.99 ERA, 58.2IP 57H 31BBs 29Ks

Round 5 Austin Bailey Boston Red Sox started in Class A Greenville. Tore his labrum in his first minor league start. 4.2IP 4H 2HR 2ER 1BB 3Ks hopefully his career ends up being more than 4 innings.

by GoldenSpikes24 on May 30, 2008 8:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2 drafts

I have done two past drafts: one as the Giants and one as the Reds last year.

2006 Giants draft

1st round: RHP Kyle Drabek
1st supplemental: RHP Bryan Morris
3rd round: LHP Wade LeBlanc
4th round: OF Brennan Boesch
5th round: SS Chris Valaika

Notes: This draft has been hit hard by injuries to Drabek and Morris. Though I really liked their arms as power pitchers with big breaking balls. High potential pitchers. I mixed early high school picks with college players. Valaika seems to have been a good draft pick so far. He was hitting .360/.390/.581 with 7hrs in 136 at bats in high A this year. LeBlanc had also been doing very well until a bump this year in AAA.

2007 Reds Draft

15: 3B Matt Dominguez
34: LHP Nick Hagadone
53: LHP Jack McGeary
79: RHP Sam Demel
104: C Cameron Rupp
109: SS Brian Friday
139: 1B John Kaskow

Notes: This draft, I had a balanced mix of high school and college players. Dominguez is struggling in low A right now. Hagadone has done very well both years so far. It is hard to evaluate McGeary, but scouting places seem to like him a lot. Demel is doing pretty well in high A right now. Rupp has been a pretty solid player for the Texas Longhorns. Friday has a solid if unspectacular line in high A right now. Kaskow is a freshman with Stanford right now.

LiNcEcuM and cAiN R STUDS

by z4 landshark on May 30, 2008 10:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

fyi

“Hagadone has done very well both years so far.”

Hagadone had TJ surgery earlier this year.

by LeftyTG on May 31, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2006 Royals

1. Andrew Miller, LHP, University of North Carolina (6 in the real draft). I chose Miller over the Royals actual selection, Luke Hochevar, who was then playing for the Fort Worth Cats. Detroit took Miller 6 overall and has since traded him to Florida where he has had his ups and downs in the Marlin rotation (4-4, 5.53 in 11 starts; 3-2, 2.32 in 5 May starts). Hochevar likewise is struggling in the Majors; he is 3-5, 4.98 in 8 starts for Kansas City. I still think Miller was the best choice in that draft.

45. Josh Butler, RHP, University of San Diego (47 in the real draft). Josh Butler went to Tampa Bay two spots earlier. Tampa has since traded Butler to Milwaukee. Butler is 23 and is in his second year in the Florida State League. In six starts at Brevard County, the Brewer affiliate, Butler has a 4.40 ERA.

77. Zach McAllister, RHP, Illinois HS (104 in the real draft). McAllister went to the Yankees later in the third round. The Illinois HS product, now 20, is excelling in the Sally League this year (6-3, 2.45 in 10 starts).

107. Sergio Perez, RHP, University of Tampa (67 in the real draft). Houston took Perez 67th overall in this draft. At Corpus Christi this year, Perez is 2-2, 2.45 in four starts.

137. Paul Coleman, LHP, Pepperdine (353 in the real draft). Coleman was a reach, and not a very good one. The theory here is that Coleman had a reputation for good control and could be a nice sleeper pick. In fact, Coleman simply does not have the stuff to advance. I would take this over if I could.

Disclosure—substitutes selected the players in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

by c60 on May 31, 2008 1:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My 2006 Mock Draft:

I had the Diamondbacks:

1st Pick: Joba Chamberlain, RHP, University of Nebraska (41 in the real draft)
2nd Pick: Ian Kennedy, RHP, USC (21 in the real draft)
3rd Pick: Justin Masterson, RHP, San Diego State University (71 in the real draft)
4th Pick: Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Notre Dame (149 in the real draft)
5th Pick: Ryan Morris, LHP, North Carolina HS (131 in the real draft)
6th Pick: Marcus Lemon, OF, Florida HS (118 in the real draft)
7th Pick: Russ Moldenhauer, 3B, Texas HS (102 in the real draft)

by Ian Stewart on May 31, 2008 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

jeez

Nice draft, although Samardija seems to be a mystery. Marcus Lemon seems to have figured something out this year with a 24/15 BB/K ratio

by sdanne on May 31, 2008 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I’ll say! If the D’Backs had you workin’ that draft they’d be better off :=)

by casejud on Jun 1, 2008 5:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

D'Backs 2007

1 (9) Jason Heyward- OF/ Georgia HS Wasn’t extremely excited about this pick at the time, oddly, as I was real hot to grab Beau Mills earlier than peple expected and look smart in the process. Mills hasn’t exploded onto the scene like I thought and Heyward may end up being the better pick.

Sup (50) Greg Peavey- RSP/ HS Peavey was drafted by the yankees much later than this and dint sign, going to Oregon State instead. Hwe pitched in 15 games and made 5 starts and went 2-3 with a 4.96 w/okay peripherals. I didn’t get a chance to see how he looked but, he hasn’t bombed and the jury is still out obviously.

Sup (61) Cole St. Clair- LP/ Rice Another, non signee. I’ve heard things about his draft stock falling for this seaon but, this power lefty had a good season…9-2, 2.65 in mostly relief (3 starts) with more than a K per inningand improving control and HEALTH. I think this will end up being a good choice but we’ll see.

2 (73) Evan Danieli- RSP/ NJ HS. This tall guy was on Rick Porcello’s team and I liked him just from a clip. He also didn’t sign and went to Notre Dame. He didn’t pitch a lot going…5.00 in 27 innings but he did K 20. Jury’s still out but I like his chances and Peavey’s

After this I had to leave and John Sickels made these picks…

3 (103) Austin Krum – OF/ HS Texas He was drafted ny the Yankees in the 9th round and is doing okay in the AL league with Jesus Montero… .233 2 hrs, drawing some walks, looks like good speed. Might be an overdraft but its hard to say yet. I will say that I remember wanting Erik Sogard here and he has been GREAT in the Cal League and he went 112th.

4 (133) Clayton Mortenson - RSP/ Gonzaga    Nice ppick by John here. Mortenson 36th to the cards in the real draft, surprisingly, and has more than held his own in AA ball.

5 163) Tyson Brummett – RSP/ UCLA Another solid sleeper by John. This tiny righty (6-0 150) was rafted by the Phillies and showed real good command in hi debut and has continued that this year… combined k/bb of 33/115 with good results as well.

by casejud on Jun 1, 2008 6:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My claim to fame

I didn’t realize it was so long ago, but I did the first one for the A’s in 2005. It took forever to find the picks, but here they are.

1--21-John Drennan, OF, San Diego, CA HS
1S-36--Jed Lowrie, 2B, Stanford
2-53-Aaron Thompson, LHP, Houston TX HS
2-69-Brian Matusz, LHP, ST. Mary’s HS Arizona
3-101-David Cooper, OF, Stockton, CA HS
4-131-Mike Durant, 1B, Berkeley, CA HS
5--161—Danny Powers, RHP, Central Missouri State University

The last three picks were submitted by the co-director because I had to go. Here is what John wrote in his review:

This doesn’t look like an Oakland draft, does it? I hope Billy Beane doesn’t read this. He might have an aneurism. Seriously, I wanted people to make their own picks based on their own ideas, so I am not going to criticize this draft because it doesn’t fit the “Oakland model.” Indeed, it will be extremely interesting and instructive to see how this class pans out in comparison to whatever Oakland really does tomorrow. As a traditional draft goes, it looks good, something like what Atlanta or Minnesota might do. San Diego prep Drennan can hit, and is the kind of polished high school hitter that does interest some Moneyballish clubs. Lowrie is a solid college player and good leavening in the supplemental round. Thompson is projectable but will have to be bought out of college at Texas A&M, which might be hard for a team with a limited budget. Matursz is also projectable and should be easier to sign. Cooper draws comparisons to Mark Kotsay, and like Drennan he is less risky than many high school guys. Durant has plus power, but his plate discipline is not consistent, and is probably the guy least-likely to actually show up on Oakland’s draft list. Powers is a more typical Oakland draft, a polished college guy who will move fast.

I was heavily criticized for picking two high school arms, but i was happy to serve some crow when Beane subsequently chose Craig Italiano, Jared Lansford and Vincent Mazzaro, all high school arms in the first 5 or 6 picks.

As for the actual players I chose, I’m pretty happy. Jed Lowrie is a top middle infield prospect. Brian Matusz is going in the top 5 most likely this year. Drennen has been stagnating at A+ for the indians, but he’s got a good average and OBP this year in his age 22 season and could warrant a callup to AA. His power sucks but he’s hitting solid amount of line drives and has good plate discipline, so i expect them to improve. Aaron Thompson is in AA as a 21 year old and struggling with his command. Still a good prospect. David Cooper, if it’s the same guy, is the California Golden Bear’s Junior first baseman who is a likely first round pick in this years draft. Mike Durant, who I requested the other guy specifically to draft because he’s from my hometown, was drafted in reality by the Phillies in the 4th round. He flamed out pretty fast. Danny Powers, the last pick, was drafted in the 8th round by the Twins. He’s 24 and just reached AA, where he’s getting shellacked. Not much of a prospect right now.

I think me and my helper, I believe Novaoakland (though I could be wrong) did a pretty good ass job.

the problem is not "too many left handed hitters" but "too many suck handed hitters"-Zonis

by ohad on Jun 4, 2008 10:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2008 Arizona Mock Draft Revisited

I had the back half of this draft (Rds 3-5) while ianstewart took the first two rounds (three picks).

26. Anthony Hewitt, ss/of, Connecticut HS (drafted No. 24 by Philadelphia). Hewitt is a raw talent and has signability issues, but that didn’t stop the Phillies. Arizona took Daniel Schlereth, a left handed pitcher from Univ. Arizona with this pick. Schlereth was a senior this year, and turned 22 last month.

43. Alex Meyer, RHP, Indiana HS (Meyer has not yet been drafted). Arizona took another college southpaw, Wade Miley (SE Louisiana) with his pick.

73. David Adams, 2B, Univ. Virginia (drafted 106 by New York Yankees). Arizona took another college pitcher, this time a right hander, here. The D-backs took Long Beach State junior Brian Shaw with this pick.

104. Evan Fredrickson, LHP, Univ. San Francisco (drafted 35th by Milwaukee). I was a little surprised Fredrickson was on the board when I came in—the obvious concern is his control issues at USF. Nobody denies the raw power in his arm. Arizona took Kevin Eichorn, a California HS pitcher, with this selection.

138. Bobby Lanigan, RHP, Adelphi Univ. (NY). (drafted 92nd by Minnesota). Arizona took Ryan White, an outfielder from Purdue, with this pick.

168. Kyle Russell, OF, Univ. of Texas (drafted 93rd by Los Angeles Dodgers). Russell did not sign with St. Louis as their fourth round pick last year—his power number tailed off this year at Texas, from 28 to 17 home runs. He still moved up one round. Arizona took Collin Cowgill, an outfielder from Kentucky, in this round.

by c60 on Jun 5, 2008 9:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cool idea for a thread

My Royals shadow drafts through the years. Parenthesis is who they really picked.

2001
1-P Kenny Baugh (Colt Griffin) – blew out his arm out of baseball now

2002
1-1B Prince Fielder (Zack Greinke) – pretty much went on name

2003
1-OF David Murphy (Chris Lubanski) – starting OF for Texas now
1s-P Brian Finch (Mitch Maier) – hurt the last two years
2-P Scott Baker (Shane Costa) – doing well for Minny
3-OF Brian McFall (McFall) – ok at AA, not a serious prospect
4-P Marc Cornell (Miguel Vega) – didn’t sign I believe, no idea what happened to him
5-OF Christian Snavely (Chris Goodman) – was okay in Toronto’s org. for a few seasons, out of affiliated baseball

2004
1-3B Josh Fields (Billy Butler) – AAA for the White Sox
1s-C Kurt Suzuki (JP Howell) – starting catcher for the A’s
2-P JA Happ (Billy Buckner) – decent arm in AAA for Philly
2-P Scott Lewis (Erik Cordier) – doing well in AA
3-OF Jordan Parraz (Josh Johnson) – doing okay in high A ball
4-SS Paul Janish (James Moore) – on the Reds bench
5-P Ryan Schroyer (Enrique Barrera) – out of affiliated baseball

2005
1-3B Alex Gordon (Gordon) – starting 3B for the Royals
2-P Kevin Slowey (Jeff Bianchi) – Twins rotation
3-SS/P Michael Hollimon (Chris Nicoll) – Tigers bench
4-1B Jeff Larish (Joe Dickerson) – Tigers bench
5-P Ryan DiPietro (Shawn Hayes) – got hurt and out of affiliated baseball

2006
1-P Brad Lincoln (Luke Hochevar) – I was torn on Hochevar vs. Lincecum and split the difference. Oops. Lincoln was hurt in 2007.
2-P Steven Wright (Jason Taylor) – hurt last year, doing well this year.
3-P Keith Weiser (Blake Wood) – doing well in high A ball, although old for his level
4-P Jeff Manship (Derrick Robinson) – overwhelming poor A ball hitters, good prospect
5-OF Shawn Scobee (Jason Godin) – out of affiliated baseball

2007
1-OF Jason Heyward (Mike Moustakas) – terrific prospect
2-P Sam Demel (Sam Runion) – doing okay as a reliever
3-P Travis Banwart (Dan Duffy) – decent numbers in high A ball
4-P Scott Maine (Mitch Hodge) – ditto
5-2B Matt Cusick (Adrian Ortiz) – tearing up A ball

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 11, 2008 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs