B.J. Upton - BABIP - Minor League Ball

B.J. Upton - BABIP

by DaleCoop14 on May 29, 2008 4:30 PM EDT Comment 10 comments

Below are MLB leaders in BABIP over the last few years. Jeter appears near the top of the list every year, and Ichiro is never far from the top, either. But other than that, there appears to be a decent amount of turnover at the top from year to year. In 2003, for example, the top 10 were: Jeter, Helton, Marlon Byrd, Podsednik, Koskie, Grudzielanek, Jacque Jones, Bill Mueller, Abreu, and Wilkerson.

It does not appear to be a common event for a hitter to have a BABIP of over .390 in consecutive years, considering that in most years, either one or zero players have achieved that number. Granting that it is still somewhat early, B.J. upton does not appear to have fallen off in terms of BABIP as most of us assumed he would.

Anyone have any thoughts on what it is about his approach, or Jeter's for that matter, that makes such excessively high BABIPs sustainable? LD% does not seem to be the determining factor for these two, at least. This year, Upton ranks at #108 with an LD% of 18.2% and Jeter is at #152 with 15.8%. Last year, they were both a bit better: Upton's 19.6% put him at #57 and Jeter's 19.9% placed him at #49. But this is not really satisfying me.

Is Bossman still due for a dropoff? Or is there something in his approach or skill set that has allowed him to maintain his ridiculously high BABIP for 1 1/3 seasons?

2008	BABIP	2007	BABIP	2006	BABIP	2005	BABIP
Jones, C	.422	Figgins	.399	Jeter	.394	Cabrera, Mig	.363
Kemp	.411	Upton, B	.399	Cabrera, Mig	.382	Young, M	.356
Rowand	.398	Ichiro	.390	Abreu, B	.375	Bay	.355
Berkman	.395	Posada	.389	Sanchez, F	.370	Jeter	.353
Upton, B	.394	Ordonez	.385	Mauer	.370	Jenkins	.352
Bradley	.393	Holliday	.380	Johnson, Re	.367	Helton	.350
Upton, J	.391	Renteria	.375	Cano	.363	Peralta	.349
DeRosa	.384	Crawford	.375	Howard	.363	Rodriguez, A	.349
Soto	.373	Jeter	.368	Guillen, C	.355	Lee, D	.349
Uggla	.364	Utley	.368	Holliday	.354	Hafner	.348

P.S. Another interesting tidbit. Chipper Jones is batting .418 with a .422 BABIP. I don't think anyone has ever finished a season with an actual BA that close to his BABIP. Anyone want to figure out what the record is?

Poll

Does B.J. Upton have inherent skills that help him to maintain a ridiculously high BABIP? Or has his luck just extended two months into a new season?

Inherent skills lead to his high BABIP

62 votes

He is lucky and is due for a drop-off.

20 votes

82 votes | Poll has closed

2 recs | Comment 10 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Speed

One thing Jeter, BJ, and Ichiro have in common is speed, which probably leads to a few extra hits per year.

by killa on May 29, 2008 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Seems like it

When he makes contact, most of the time he squares the ball. That helps your BABIP a lot

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on May 29, 2008 4:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

thas what i notice that Ichiro does so well… and BOSSMAN does this too

by daveh33 on May 29, 2008 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah,

BJ Upton hits the ball HARD

by DITO on May 31, 2008 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

This is an interesting discussion. My guess – without looking – is that it has something to do with LD rate but also a lot to do with the directionality of the hitting of the two hitters that you mentioned. The one thing common element that I notice when I watch both Bossman Jr. and Jeter is that the majority of their base hits are back up the middle. Conversely, you very rarely see either of them roll over a pitch and hit a weak grounder to the left side.

I would be curious if the raw numbers match my intuition – that the vast majority of the BIP are up the middle…

by Dfarth on May 29, 2008 6:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Whoops

I meant to post one more statement – which is that I wonder if there is a correlation between high BABIP and directionality…anyone know?

by Dfarth on May 29, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Upton and BABIP

What Upton did last year was unsustainable. This year, his GB/FB/LD are more in line with a high BABIP. His GB BABIP is .269 this year, which is very sustainable for somebody who hits the ball as hard as he does and has his speed. His LD BABIP is a little on the high side and his FB is right on.

Upton’s “luck adjusted” line this year would be .294/.392/.418 compared with an actual line of .308/.405/.432. As you can see, he’s been a little lucky, but well within reason. Keep in mind, he’ll hit a few more HR than he has, and that will help compensate for some of the BABIP loss. Overall, I’d expect Upton to perform better the rest of the way than he has so far.

Jeter has a .360 BABIP for his career and is slightly better on LD and GB.

Ichiro is the best I’ve come across at GB BABIP at .301. He’s slightly lower in LD and right on in FB.

A couple of other big factors are infield pop fly % and bunt hit %.

by rwperu34 on May 29, 2008 8:31 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Just a thought

Perhaps it’s not so much what direction you hit the ball, but how many? For example, one of the lowest BABIPs I’ve seen on grounders is Barry Bonds. Could this be because most of his grounders were to the right side and teams employed the shift?

by rwperu34 on May 29, 2008 8:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs