Brandon Wood
by billybeingbilly on May 26, 2008 10:08 PM EDT
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PrintWhat is Brandon Woods value to the Angels at this point? Do you all think they're willing to trade him? If so, at what cost? Would Carlos Rosa or Dan Cortes be enough? What if the Royals threw in a reliever such as a Ron Mahay? Wood seems to be blocked in Anaheim so it almost seems like they need to trade him and God knows the Royals desperately need a real shortstop. Thoughts?
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yeah
the Angels have screwed the pooch on this so bad its surprising. up and down up and down. what is it with these LA jacking around with prospects?
if they arent gonna play him by now, trade him for something you want.
why blame the Angels?
prospect mavens always blame the organization when a fave struggles: pushed too hard/not advanced fast enough/sent up or down too often, etc.
at the end of the day, players need to produce. Wood hasn’t and i don’t think that’s entirely surprising given his long swing and K-happy ratios. the Angels have been plenty patient with Aybar, Kotchman, Izturis, Napoli, Mathis, and Kendrick—that’s an incredibly high number of guys to whom they’ve given a ton of work despite some struggles. It just may be that they don’t fully believe in Wood and, lord knows, he hasn’t made them change their mind. So i don’t see why you assume the problem is with the Angels, I think they’re pretty ideal in terms of their faith in prospects.
Blame Angels, Maybe...
Scooter, while I do agree it is time for him to pick it up and start playing well, here is how the Angels have yanked him around:
Recalled 4/26/07 – Sent back to AAA 5/9/07 – Angels played 12 games, Wood got into 3 and had 11 total plate appearances.
Recalled 7/14/07 – Sent back 7/30/07 – Angels played 14 games, Wood got into 5 and had 10 plate appearances.
September ‘07 call up – Wood got into 5 games and had 12 plate appearances.
Recalled 4/28/08 – Sent back 5/12/08 – Angels played 14 games Wood got into 11, but only 27 plate appearances,
Recalled 5/22/08 – Still up – 6 games, 17 plate appearances, finally getting a chance to play everyday.
OK, I am sick of looking this up, but as you can see, it must be tough to maintain any timing if you are up in LA and sitting on the bench all of the time. For a team that supposedly overvalues their prospects, they sure do not handle Wood like they do. Just my oipinion.
maybe
it’s because they know he isn’t any good and don’t care?
is it:
a) he has been crap because he has been screwed around
or
b) since he’s crap they don’t mind screwing him around
my guess is b since he was crap in the minors and crap in the majors. I don’t think the act of calling him up or sending him down changed anything.
Come again?
I think calling Wood crap is a little hyperbolic. He’s potentially a good defensive SS or a very good defensive 3b with above average power. Yes, his production has been down since the start of the 2007 season, but he was coming off of a very high level. I think you’re being too quick to dismiss Wood. He’s just a very young player struggling in his first real exposure to the majors. Long term, his outlook still projects him as a starter in MLB.
I’m not a huge Brandon Wood backer. I don’t love his low contact approach. I’m not enthralled with him if he’s “only” a 3b. However, to call him crap is a gross misstatement. Wood’s a good prospect who is the victim of tremendous hype that probably wasn’t fully deserved. However, he’s still got a good chance to be a good player at the big league level, and that’s hardly what anybody would call crap. Joe Heitpas’ bat was crap. Brandon Wood’s? Pretty decent, especially considering positional scarcity.
right now he is crap
if he shortens his swing maybe he will improve and become much more.
Prospecting
You’re right. Right now, Wood is not playing well. However, he is a prospect and he remains a better than average bet to become a better than average player. So, when his slump is over and his swing has ameliorated, he’ll become much more than what he is right now.
umm
{Right now, Wood is not playing well.}
I think that is such an understatement
The guy averages more than a K per game for his whole minor league career. He is killing the ball in AAA but is more of a Branyan type hitter. Or a McPherson type hitter. McPherson is killing the ball for Florida in the minors but no-one is talking him up. It’s because with horrible plate discipline it’s more likely the player slumps so badly the team doesn’t have patience.
Wood
I think that Wood could, if plenty goes wrong, wind up being a Branyan type hitter in the majors. Which would mean that he’d have stopped progressing as a player sometime last season. If that is the case, then what you’d have is Russell Branyan + A good glove, maybe even at SS. That’s not a great player by any measure, and during those prolonged dry spells that a low contact player like that is bound to have, it’s not even a good player. But, most of the time, it’s enough to stay in the lineup. And at the end of the season, that’s a pretty good player to have around.
I’ll wait a little longer till I bury Wood. He never was my favorite prospect, and I do abhor his contact rate. I still think it’s foolhardy to write him off this early.
+1
Calling Brandon Wood ‘crap in the minors’ is factually wrong. He may not hit for average but he has shown the ability to hit for tremendous power which is a lot more than a lot of other prospects have done.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 1, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
not sure I follow you
I’m calling him crap -> not saying he was crap in the minors. Very big difference.
Yeah he has power. The few times he hits the ball.
...
“my guess is b since he was crap in the minors and crap in the majors. I don’t think the act of calling him up or sending him down changed anything.“
I’m pretty sure you called him crap. And he’s not.
yeah, I said he was crap
And I think he is right now. His skills just don’t translate well to patient pitchers.
Delmon Young had numbers that looked good in the minors but certain peripherals were so bad they were not sustainable. And the results are as expected.
I think the same of Wood.
Now both of these guys could adjust and become pretty awesome players. But until adjustments are made it’s a different story.
Impatient
You’re cutting the chord waaaaaay too soon on both of these guys. Delmon is a 22 year old having a rough season. I’m not worried about him, at all. If he’s still this rough when he’s 24, I’ll start to get worried. Similarly, I think that Brandon Wood still has too much upside (i.e. he could become a pretty awesome player) to be called crap right now.
Baseball players have slumps, even prospects. That doesn’t mean that you should just call them worthless. Instead, give them some time and see how they adjust. Both of these players are very, VERY young to be in the majors and have brighter futures than 95+% of the 22 year olds in baseball. They both need work, but they’re young enough and talented enough to make those big adjustments. And just by virtue of that, I don’t think either can be called crap.
I’d say that as far as prospects go, they’re pretty good. Actually, pretty good.
disagree
I’m not cutting the cord on either of these guys. I’m merely stating what their value to a team is right now. Right now they are replacement level players.
I do state that if they change their style they can have huge value. What I don’t feel is they are in some sort of slump. They have a flawed game plan and unless this changes they will not get better.
Unpropitious
I do think that this is a slump for both. At least, this is likely the case for Delmon. This is the first time in his career he’s been anything less than an above average player. I think it’s likely that Young will adjust and improve in the coming months and years.
I feel the same way about Wood, though I believe it’s less likely than with a mega talent like Young. These are young players with strong histories of past success. It is more likely than not that their present situations will be ameliorated.
Delmon
Since 2004 until now his OPS, Slugging, OB, Batting average have all tended downward. His BB/K also followed the same route.
The only light at the end of the tunnel (other than pure talent) is his BB/K this year seems to be ok. If he is actually consolidating his plate discipline by looking for pitches to drive then I could see a nice breakout.
Unfortunately I don’t believe this is the case. Why would he have no power if that was so?
He is by no means done. But a 5 year trend across many levels is by no means a slump. It’s a long pattern.
I’m not sure how anyone can see it as such IMO.
Dmitri's Less Zaftig Brother
In fairness, D Young actually had better stats in AA in 2005 than he had at any other point over the last 5 seasons. Still, your point does stand. Here’s my rebuttal:
Following the 2005 season, Young was the consensus best prospect in baseball, and it’s hard to argue that isn’t an improvement on his status following the 2004 season. I put less than full stock in Young’s merely very good performance in AAA as a 20 year old in 2006 because of the time he missed as a result of the admittedly troublesome bat throwing incident. Still, Young did manage to get back into the swing of things in time to have a great September in the majors that season. In 2007, Young had a very respectable season, especially accounting for his age. Young did exhibit a very poor walk rate, but he also managed a 288 BA and 38 2b’s over the course of the season, both very encouraging coming from a 21 year old. This season, Young’s plate discipline has greatly ameliorated (he’s already walked almost as many times as he did last season) and he’s showing very strong skills on the basepaths. He’s also been showing an increase in pop as of late, which would jibe with your theory that he’s getting better at waiting on his pitch and learning to drive it at the big league level.
From a pure scouting perspective, Delmon Young remains a very strong prospect. He hits the ball harder than all but a very select few in the game, and he’s shown the ability to be very good at squaring the ball. His bat speed is terrific, as is his raw power. I’ll spare you anything else, but physically, he’s developed into the sort of tools monster one expects out of the number one pick.
I think it’s also very, very important to note Young’s ARL over the course of his career. He has ALWAYS been very young for his level, and when you account for that, it helps to explain his warts, to a certain extent. He’s still just 22 years old, and he’s already showing improved plate discipline. He’s already produced at an acceptable level in the major leagues (his counting stats were alright last season, but his rates were held down because of his very low walk rate). Young still projects as a terrific middle of the order hitter down the line, and while he may never walk 100 times in a season, it’s not wholly implausible to see Young producing a 300/350/500+ line on an annual basis.* I see this as a situation in which a very talented young player is showing good prospect at developing into a great major leaguer.
These are the reasons why I feel that Delmon Young will be a great player down the line, and why I believe he’s far more than a replacement player right now. He’s drawing walks, his average is coming up, and he’s starting to show power after a rough start. Taken in the big picture of a player with a great minor league track record and terrific tools, with consideration given to his very favorable ARL, it is obvious to me that Delmon Young is well on his way to a career path that could lead to superstardom.
*I’ll note that I feel like I’m lowballing the kind of player Young could be in his prime. Intuitively, I want to say his annual line would be something more like 315/375/550+, but in the interest of moderation, I’ll present a more likely scenario that I feel is more agreeable.
You did call him crap in the minors:
“my guess is b since he was crap in the minors and crap in the majors.”
Gee, I wonder how I could have misinterpreted this?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 2, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL LOL LOL
Look, you were wrong in pointing out that I misinterpreted your comments. You clearly stated that you felt he was crap in the minors and then went back on the comment. Do I not have the right to defend myself against your assertion that my post misrepresented your comments? Next time just admit you were wrong and leave it at that.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 2, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
I said “not sure if I follow you”. Yes, I did forget I did say he was crap in the minors. I was incorrect or wrong or whatever. I never once brought attitude or anything though.
“the right to defend myself” ? Dude I’m not attacking you. “not sure I follow you” is an attack?
meant to add
he is who he is by now. a capable SS who is gonna hit 260-270 with alot of power and strikeout alot. if that isnt good enough for them they should deal him. He just isnt going to develop into a 300 hitter with more walks and Ks..its like they think if they give him enough develop time he will turn into that type of player and it is evident that wont happen.
Response
Is he going to hit .260-.270? MLEs suggest that he probably can’t sustain a higher average at this point than one in the .220-.240 range. From a scouting perspective, his swing is very long and his plate discipline isn’t very good at all when facing capable pitchers. Gets himself out on even mediocre breaking balls in a pitcher’s count.
I’d like to be optimistic and I’ve been so in the past, but he just really hasn’t made any significant adjustments in the last couple of years. Maybe a trade will help him settle down a bit and perhaps calm down his hackeristic tendencies – he’s always going to K a ton, but maybe he can learn to make pitchers work for it a bit more and push his numbers into the acceptable zone in the process.
RE
I dont know what he is GOING to hit..I said he is capable of that number…I feel you have throw out his numbers in the big leagues at this point…no one is going to produce with getting a couple ABs at a time and being jerked around.
If they are going to treat him like a utility guy, they need to realize they can trade him and get more than a utility guy in return. From their actions it is obvious other teams value him higher than they do.
Response
But he’s NOT capable of sustaining that number at this point. He could certainly do it over a period of time (although increasingly unlikely as sample size grows, obviously), but it would not be supported by his peripheral statistics, and he would be significantly less likely to do so than many other prospects and players. In other words, if you want to say that Brandon Wood COULD hit .270 in the majors at this point, I’d simply respond by saying that a lot of guys could hit .270, and most of them would be a lot more likely to do it than Brandon Wood.
I wasn’t even looking at his major league numbers for the reason you stated, but it’s not totally flukey either. He’s a K machine. I mentioned his MLEs (minor league numbers translated to major league performance), which are quite frankly not good. And if you’ve seen him, you’ve seen a guy with a very long swing, aggressive tendencies and bad anticipation of breaking balls. I’m willing to buy into the ideas that A) the statistics lie B) even if his swing looks bad that he’ll find a way to make adjustments C) it’s a small sample size and he just needs consolidation time. But you know, when A and B point towards the same conclusion, and we’ve had enough raw data on the guy at higher levels of the minors to put together a rather comprehensive statistical analysis suggesting the same conclusion . . .well, what do you expect?
+1
the fact that he gets jerked around is irrelevant. it’s not like his weaknesses in his time spent in the bigs don’t coincide with those same weaknesses in the minors. i know many of you don’t want to hear this but there are very strong indicators he’ll be a BUST.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on May 28, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Hrmm...
Well, I’d agree that the Angels aren’t a very patient club. However, it’s fallacious to say that they don’t value getting on base. Rather, they prefer contact/high avg players who can make things happen (i.e. aggressive baserunning). It works better for their smallball oriented club. Counter intuitive as it may seem, a few less walks for a few more hits (or at least, productive outs) seems to work for them.
Having Vlad also (generally) doesn’t hurt.
are rosa and cortes the type/caliber of prospects they'd be able to get in return?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on May 26, 2008 10:22 PM EDT reply actions
c'mon doublestix...
you really dont want wood? or is it just that you dont want to give up pitching? do you love yourself some tony pena? What would you be willing to trade for Wood?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on May 26, 2008 10:30 PM EDT reply actions
heh
It’s not that I don’t want Wood necessarily, but I think in the long haul Rosa and Cortes will be more valuable. To me, Wood is the next Russ Branyan. His power is undeniable, but I think he strikes out way too much to hit more than .250 (at best) in the ML’s. On top of that, he doesn’t draw that many walks to give him an even acceptable OBP.
I want to be over with the TPJ era badly. Anybody would suffice, and I would be very willing to trade Rosa or Cortes for one. I just don’t think Wood is the answer.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
What's so terrible about Russ Branyan?
He wasn’t a terrific fielder, struck out a hell of a lot, and never really played a full season, but when he did play he wasn’t a terrible hitter. His batting average was terrible, but a .478 slugging percentage makes up for a fair amount of flaws. I’m not necessarily agreeing that Brandon Wood will be a Branyan, but I think as a floor, that isn’t too disastrous.
by OldProspects on May 26, 2008 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
response...
Well, in those terms he certainly doesn’t look too bad. But I was answering in terms of the Royals…if that wasn’t clear.
1) I don’t think he’ll take even as many walks as Branyan did.
2) Defense is pretty mediocre at SS (which is the topic at hand since Tony Pena is the worst hitter ever).
If Branyan was his FLOOR, I’d certainly be fine with giving up a good pitching prospect for him, but I’m not convinced it is. Maybe he’ll shock me, but I’m not expecting anything from him.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
I don't disagree with you that Wood may not be right for the Royals
but I think he will be a valuable player. Over the past 3 years his OPS in the minors has been .905, .835 and now .894. Like Branyan, that isn’t because he hits for an especially high batting average or walks alot, but because his power is excellent. Reasonably speaking, given regular playing time, his OPS in the majors could be in the area of .800. I had heard differing things about his defense at shortstop, but even an average fielding SS with an .800 or so OPS is a helpful person to have. There also remains the possibility that the 23 year old won’t remain static, but will improve, possibly dramatically. Whether that is worth the price that the Angels might require is, however, an entirely separate issue.
by OldProspects on May 27, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
“Whether that is worth the price that the Angels might require is, however, an entirely separate issue.”
Complete agree there, that’s why I’m against acquiring him in this situation.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
daniel cortes
the only way the royals trade cortes for wood is if the angels get some compromising pics or video of dayton being dayton. in other words, hell no.
wood is a hack. period.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on May 28, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Response
It’s really hard to answer this question, if only because nobody has any clue what Wood’s actual value to the Angels at this point is. Do they value him as an uber-prospect, which he probably isn’t anymore? Do they value him as the utility fill-in guy, which is what he’s actually doing for the team at this point? Or do they value him as the guy that he is: a talented post-hype prospect who has some serious flaws preventing him from making a smooth transition to the majors?
I would love for the Giants to target guys like Brandon Wood, Adam Lind and other prospects that have fallen out of favor.
by BoristheSpider on May 27, 2008 12:25 AM EDT reply actions
If there
was any one person I can see trading for Brandon Wood in the near future, it’d be Billy Beane—-He’s done it so many times before.
and then he'll hit 150 homers for beane and then be turned into 6 prospects
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on May 27, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
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