Jason Bay's Trade Value

by Schnoah on May 25, 2008 8:51 PM EDT Comment 58 comments

ok, i dont really know where to post this, but i am curious as to what all of you on here think. This offseason the Pirates decided to wait on trading Jason Bay cause he had a down year due to his knees. Well he is healthy now and he is playing extremely well...

He has an OBP of over .400 and is hitting .290 he is OPSing around .950... he has 12HR to go along with that.

So what i am asking is what do you think is fair in return as far as prospects? Do you think your team could use him? If so what prospects could we get from your team?

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good topic

im sure several teams could use him, and now would be a good time to trade him high + give pearce time to play.

as a braves fan, they are a team that came to mind that has the pieces to pay and also the need.

I think the Pirates would get 2 B level + 1 C level prospects for him. Maybe something like Lillibridge, Freddie Freeman, and something else.

by jsmall404 on May 25, 2008 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe I am a bit optimistic

but that just doesn’t seem like enough. There are a lot of contenders, or want-to-be contenders, that seem like they could use him. Mets, Braves, Rays, Red Sox, Indians, Tigers?, Royals?, probably a lot more.

A perfect match would be a team with good starting pitching depth and would be willing to part with a young right-handed starter who could be under control for a while. Tampa Bay? Red Sox?

by DITO on May 25, 2008 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Where does he fit with the BoSox – Manny, JD Drew, and Papi have LF, RF, and DH locked up. I know Drew isn’t that great but they aren’t about to give up on him I wouldn’t think…

by Dfarth on May 25, 2008 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I was thinking replacing Drew when I posted that. They have the money to platoon the two if they thought that was necessary, plus Drew is always and injury risk, but you are right that there isn’t a great fit there.

by DITO on May 25, 2008 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

JD

Agree, he is always an injury risk, which is one reason they’re keeping Crisp around. I’m also not sure they’d be too disappointed plugging Brandon Moss into that spot/4th of’er role if Drew goes down. I know he carries that injury label, but he’s currently around 800OPS, and I’m not sure any team should feel the need to replace that.

by ProspectTube.com on May 26, 2008 7:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pirates fan POV

See, i think they are going to try and get at least 1 legit 5 star prospect for him… he isnt knocking in the runs, buts its because he is walking and getting on base… but i am sure if he was on a team with a lot more protection that he would get more pitches to hit.

But even now… he is still on pace for what 36 HR? and will be close to 100 RBI and 100 Runs by the end of the year. The return would have to be a lot more than that… and we are not going to trade back for Lillibridge… especially if they draft Beckham here coming up…

by Schnoah on May 25, 2008 9:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Forgot

We turned down… Shoppach, Lee, and Guttierez from Cleveland cause we said it wasnt close to enough, and that was when Bay was at his lowest… its going to take quite a bit to get him… he is one of the top bats available this season… and he is under control the rest of this year and next… not to mention he is CHEAP!!!

by Schnoah on May 25, 2008 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, Pittsburgh reneged on the deal, which included Paulino,

that had been agreed to by both parties and I bet they are kicking themselves in the butt right about now. They will never get as much for Bay because no one except Cleveland has pitching that deep and that bridge has been burned by all accounts. Really stupid not to trust an ex-Tribe exec who knew their system after hiring him away from Cleveland. It will be years before they have a starter the quality of Lee or a catcher with the skills of Shoppach. But that’s just my opinion!

by sdtribefan on May 25, 2008 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

R U SERIOUS??

ok… i know that Lee has had his best season ever in his life… but why was he on the block in the first place? Because he had sucked prior to that offseason and he was owed a lot of money… but Kudos to him for turning it around… Shoppach and Guttierez are sucking…

(numbers coming into today)
Shoppach – 14/63 .222 BA 8R 1HR 3RBI
Gutierrez – 31/132 .235 BA 17R 2HR 13RBI 3SB
Lee – 7W 1.50ERA 0.88WHIP 7.36 K/9

Bay – 49/171 .287 35R 12HR 25RBI 5SB .953OPS (and he was 2 for 5 with a BB and RBI today)
so he is now hitting .290 with an OBP of over .400 and his OPS went up!

by Schnoah on May 25, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Quite serious, actually.

I am not engaging in revisionism. Bay was just as lame as Lee last year. The difference is Cleveland has lots of pitchers they can call upon. Pittsburgh has nothing to replace Bay. Shoppach was the only player Pittsburgh insisted upon. Shoppach would be a huge upgrade over any catcher in Pittsburgh organization. However, in Cleveland, he is blocked by Martinez. As for Lee, Pittsburgh was given the choice along with Laffey and Sowers. Gutierrez was the choice between him and Francisco.

LH starting pitching is the most valuable position in baseball. Only SS and C approach it. Pittsburgh would improve two premium positions for an above average NL offensive OF who is both a defensive liability and high injury risk. I recognize you guys are Pirates fans and I applaud you but they really screwed the pooch on that trade. That’s what happens when your owner overrules your GM thinking he will get a better deal. Now you are talking about prospects for Bay when you could have had three starters including the best performing LH starter in baseball at the present time. I wouldn’t mind seeing Bay over Dellucci in the Tribe LF but there is no way I would give that package now. Lee is pretty much untouchable I would say.

by sdtribefan on May 26, 2008 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we have nothing to replace bay?

Well what about McCutch who is going into CF and McLouth is moving to LF… or do you forget that Nate is OPSing over 1.000 hitting over .300 and also has 12HR…

Or that McCutchen is on pace to hit 23HR 42Doubles, hit .300 steal 30bags… and have an OBP of .400 and is only 21yrs old and at AAA…

Pearce is having a down year, but we def. do have replacements… and Bay is not an injury risk, his entire career he had one down year. And is doing this on a bad team.

Doumit is i believe the number one hitting catcher in baseball before he broke his thumb… so your wrong again on an upgrade there.

by Schnoah on May 26, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now you seem to be saying that you

and Pirate management were omniscient about the players mentioned. I stand by my statement about the situation in February. I didn’t forget anything about performances but a fifty game sample interpolated to a full season is ludicrous, particularly for rookies. Talk to me around July next year and see if McLouth, McCutchen and Pearce are starting on the All Star team.

I am sure you meant the comment on Doumit as comic relief. Catchers are supposed to catch and Doumit is hardly a ML leader in that category. Why do you insist on trying to make 25 games in April/May into a hitting machine? I’m not wrong, you have blinders. You may not like my statements but they are accurate.

BTW, Bay does have knee problems which aren’t going away. This thread was started by you to ask what the Pirates would get for Bay. I answered and you take offense because you think the world will beat a path to the Pirate’s doorstep for Bay. I still say that they will not get any player who is as valuable currently as Cliff Lee who is an established LH starter who had an off year last year but has one of the best winning percentages of any LH starter. Don’t get me wrong! I have said that I would like to have Bay over Cleveland’s current LF. But if you think that the Pirates are getting a better deal than the one that they turned down, then I believe you do not fully understand the value of young established major league players over prospects who have yet to play a day in the majors. They call them prospects for a reason.

by sdtribefan on May 27, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

there is a lot to sift through there…lets try to make this simple

Of course they won’t get someone who they will expect to immediately have a season like Cliff Lee is—Cleveland offered Lee because they never expected him to have a season like this

Bay had knee problems that affected his performance last year

Doumit is better than Shoppach

McLouth, McCutchen and Pearce don’t all have to immediately start on the All Star team to have an outfield that can replace Bay

by DITO on May 27, 2008 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like to keep things simple, as well.

Your position on the injuries is inconsistent. Cliff Lee was injured last year as well as Bay. However, in the land of baseball, pitchers are more likely to recover from an abdominal strain than OFs are from damaged knees. Why was Lee less likely to recover? Cleveland gave Pittsburgh the choice between Lee, Laffey and Sowers. If Lee was unlikely to bounce back, why did the Pirates choose him over the others?

If Doumit is better than Shoppach, why did Pittsburgh insist on him in the trade?

Bay has been an all star. If he is replaced by someone who is not an all star, then that becomes an inferior position and it really doesn’t replace Bay the player. It only has someone new in the position. I will agree that anyone except Pearce can replace Bay defensively without loss. Not only now, but in the future, I do not expect any of these players to have Bay’s offensive impact. You have to remember, playing the same position isn’t replacing and none of these guys has proven they can replace Bay’s offensive skills. Maybe on some planet far far away in the future.

by sdtribefan on May 27, 2008 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Replacement

Bay pretty much has to go, which should be considered in that discussion.

Maybe you have better info on the trade, but I heard the deal-breaker was the Bucs insisting to have Laffey and not Lee, and Shoppach was more of a throw-in to get the deal done with Lee instead of a younger starter.

Doumit hadn’t been healthy much and the former Bucs administration had all but given up on him as a catcher were using him primarily as a right fielder at the time of the trade talks. Now he is a catcher, where he should be, and his bat is extremely valuable.

Not sure what you were talking about when asking me why Bay was more likely to recover? I never said Bay would have a bounce-back 2008 and Lee would not. In fact, I never even said the trade last year would have been a bad one for the Pirates. I merely took exception to a few comments you made (McLouth/Cutch/Pearce outfield being bad; Shoppach being comically better than Doumit; Bay being some sort of injury risk)

by DITO on May 28, 2008 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We will never know for sure but

the indians blogs which were familiar with the trade workings and actually announced Pittsburgh had agreed to the deal. I am not sure that what you heard about Laffey has merit but it would really surprise me if Pittsburgh would turn down Lee, a proven veteran with as many as 18 wins in a season, for a rookie 4/5 starter like Laffey. The reports were that Pittsburgh insisted on adding Barfield to the transaction after it was agreed to, supposedly because the owner did not like the deal his new GM made. Look, ignore Lee’s record last year and this year. Just look at his earlier years and he consistently won a lot of games. He clearly has a much higher ceiling than Laffey who supposedly was on the block to Colorado but taken off by Shapiro because of the injuries.

My point on the recovery of prior skills by Bay/Lee was just as likely for both. Pittsburgh fans have pointed out that there was no reason to believe Lee would have the year he is having, but that Bay was likely to have a great year. I can think of no rationale or logic that would cause anyone to believe that. Lee is entering his pitching prime and is showing the ability he has shown every year but 2007 but now has the maturity and experience to take it to the next level. This is kind of similar to Sabathia’s development but Lee does not have CC’s tools. But, make no mistake, he has the appearance of that rarest of ML players, a LH stud starter who is inexpensively signed.

I didn’t opine on Doumit’s bat except it was early for a forecast of hitting greatness based on a small sample. I did say he was not a good catcher and that is true. Shoppach is a real quality catcher with decent power who is stuck behind Martinez in Cleveland. I know Cleveland insisted on Paulino who is the very definition of mediocre over Doumit. But Cleveland already has its own version of Doumit in AA.

Hey, please do not put words in my mouth. I didn’t say any of Pittsburgh’s young OFs were bad. I just said they were not replacements for Bay’s offensive production. Prospects are just that until they have proven they are still effective after two seasons in the show. I was very ambivalent about the trade when it was announced. I thought Bay would bounce back to where he is now but I also thought his defensive shortcomings and high K rate were serious weaknesses in a lineup like Cleveland’s which is already contact challenged. In retrospect, I am really happy the deal did not get made but I still would like to Bay’s bat in the Tribe lineup even though Francisco is hitting very well since he was brought up. He cannot replace Bay’s offensive production either, just like the Pirate prospects. Cleveland needs more IF help rather than an OF like Bay which is where they are headed in the trade market. I don’t see Cleveland having interest in Bay after the last episode and I think we can agree that no other team has the starting pitching depth to trade from that the Tribe does. They probably have at least eight starting pitchers who are better than anything Pittsburgh currently has in its rotation or organization.

by sdtribefan on May 28, 2008 5:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

terrible

Its rare that I applaud the pirates for something. But there was no way to think Lee would pitch the way he has. And there was every reason tot hink that Bay could bounce back and hit 30 homers again. For once, the Pirates didn’t sell low on a player. And they are to be congratulated for that. When the trade deadline approaches, they will move Bay assuming they aren’t in the playoff hunt. and they will get a heck of a lot more than what the Triber was offering this offseason.

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on May 25, 2008 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

This makes no sense at all unless you’re writing from the deluded and biased perspective of an Indians fan who would desperately love to see Jason Bay’s bat in that Cleveland lineup.

Fortunately I’m like 92.6 percent certain that is NOT the case here.

by mrkupe on May 25, 2008 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would love to see Bay's bat in LF for Cleveland but, since you have trouble

understanding what the thread is about, the issue is what the Pirates can get for him in trade.

As I have said, they won’t get better value than what Cleveland offerred in February. As I have also noted, Bay does have a good bat but has knee problems and is a defensive liability. I am not sure what you are 92.6 percent certain of but I can tell you that I am 100% certain that your response was not a response, since I did not address you but an opinion that had nothing to do with the thread. It appears to be intended to diminish someone who had an opinion you failed to comprhend and wished to make a point totally irrelevant to the issue. One thing we can agree upon, I can understand why this makes no sense to you. BTW, it is rude to shout!

by sdtribefan on May 27, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly

I think, based on Bay’s contract status, the Pirates should push for a return similiar (but maybe not quite as good) as the Rangers got from the Braves for Tex.

I think Tampa might be a good fit. RF is a waste land and they’ve been stockpiling high ceiling talent for a few years now.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on May 25, 2008 11:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

would love a trade with TB

So who do you think we could get from them? They have talent all over the place and i think we could get a couple great pitchers for Bay

by Schnoah on May 25, 2008 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitcher...yes...

I don’t know very much specific players in their system but…

Jacob McGee, 21, good numbers(48:19 k:bb in 47.2 innings) in AA

Mitch Talbot, 24, 48:11 in 58.1 AAA innings

Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnastine (though slightly older) are good, too, but they may not be willing to part with them, unless Price is ready to enter the rotation before the deadline.

A guy like that plus a younger hitter or two would be nice. But like I said, I don’t know how prized either of those prospects are within the organization.

by DITO on May 26, 2008 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Slow down there pal

Remember who Tex got traded for.

Salty was bouncing between Atlanta and AAA, Matt Harrison was in AA but hurt.

Andrus, Feliz and Jones were all in A-ball.

I think the Pirates could get one of Tampa’s marquee arms, but not two of them.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on May 26, 2008 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Texas got a haul...

It sounds like you’re insinuating that the Rangers didn’t get much of a return at the time of the Tex deal. While it’s true that Salty was bouncing back and forth between Altanta and AAA, it’s also somewhat irrelevant in terms of his prospect status. He was, and still is, one of the better 22 year old prospects in the game. Beyond that, they landed a relatively safe arm to fill the back of the rotation in Harrison, as well as one of the top SS prospects in the game in Andrus (anywhere from top 3-5 at that position), and young arm in Feliz that some (Goldstein) have rated as a future front of the rotation starter. I’d say that’s a tremendous haul.

by ProspectTube.com on May 26, 2008 7:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doubt you'll get a trade from TB,

I’m a fan btw, so here’s my POV. We have a 3 man platoon going in RF, and surprisingly, alot of the offense is coming from this position, and as great as it would be to have Bay in the OF, I doubt we will trade for an OF, unless we are contending and we want to make sure we make the playoffs.

I’m sure that the Rays DO not want to trade any of Davis/McGee/Price/Hellickson unless we are sure we are going to benefit alot from it. McGee would probably be the first traded out of that group, because he is a high risk, high reward guy that could get us alot, and he could still bust.

So, don’t really expect us to trade for him. Friedman, our GM, has been quoted saying he likes the way the platoon is working out and he feels he doesn’t have to fix anything that isn’t broke.

by Cory Alexander on May 26, 2008 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Our wires crossed

I’m not dismissing Salty, I was trying to point out that the Rangers only got 1 healthy upper level prospect for Tex. If your Pirates are willing to take the bulk of the trade in A-ball prospects (as the Rangers did) then I think a deal could be had.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on May 26, 2008 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bay isnt Tex

And they arent getting Davis or Mcgee or Hellickson

by jsmall404 on May 26, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How many years does Bay have left on his contract?

The return for Tex was based on the fact that Atlanta would have him for two stretch runs, not one.

Hard Drive Manufacturer Hires Barkley

by BudLight on May 25, 2008 11:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This year and next.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on May 25, 2008 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bay Contract

Yea, he is signed for this year and next… and he is owed the remainder of the 3.5M this year and i think only 6M next season… so 7.5M for the 2 stretch runs as you would call it

by Schnoah on May 26, 2008 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think

i like the idea of the rays, but the question is do the rays feel they need him?
I think the Indians still need him, but will they pay…. what if it was adam miller and someone else?
what about the dodgers for ethier and a couple of prospects?
he braves could be a fit but their system is drained after the past year.

"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"

by Trobone on May 26, 2008 12:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Dodgers could be a good fit.

I think a package of Ethier, Larcohe, and some lower level pitching prospect would be good.

by Squire_Boone on May 26, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could even see Ethier, DeWitt and a lower level prospect. It depends on whether the Dodgers like DeWitt or Laroche longterm.

by demondeaconsbaseball on May 26, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am a Pirates fan

but Ethier is comparable to Bay in production right now, why would they do that?

by DITO on May 27, 2008 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hes not

but he is cheap and i’d say the dodgers would have to throw in laroche and a mid level pitching prospect… the pirates are looking for value… the longer bay keeps hitting the more they can demand at the deadline.

"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"

by Trobone on May 27, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just looked up Ethier's stats and milb track record

He’s not quite the hitter I thought he was, though still good, and I didn’t realize he was 26. You’re right.

by DITO on May 27, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mets?

As a ‘Burgh fan, I can see Bay or Nady going to the Mets – question is does Minaya have enough left to get Bay? NYM outfield is unsteady at best, and the teams have a history of deals (Benson, Perez) so a track record is there.
Perhaps Bay and Osoria for Heilman, Martinez and Eddie Kunz?
BTW – McCutcheon looks ready

by ByANose on May 26, 2008 7:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Um...

First of all, the “track record” was with Dave Littlefield, who is no longer the Pirates’ GM.

Secondly, Bay and a terrible reliever for a talented-but-still-very-raw prospect, a good/mediocre 29 year old reliever, and a relief pitching prospect(who I’m pretty sure would have to be a PTBNL because he wasn’t signed until late August of last year) isn’t even a remotely fair deal. Nor does it really address much of the Pirates’ needs.

by calig23 on May 26, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

OMG Dave LIttlefield is not the GM anymore, you are really sharp! Organizations and ownership make deals, not just GM’s. I get a kick out of reply’s that state obvious lines. PIrates don’t have any specific needs, they unfortunately need another total roster makeover. Having a potential future outfield of Martinez/McCutcheon/McClouth does make sense to me, and if Pearce is for real (and I’m not sure), he can play first in a LaRoche deal. SS can be addressed with Beckham.

by ByANose on May 26, 2008 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not really a good fit.

Heilman is out of cheap years, minor league relievers are almost definitionally non-prospects, and Martinez isn’t going to take CF away from McCutchen.

by Vlad on May 27, 2008 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Blue Jays

I think the Jays could really use Bay’s bat in the middle of the order…LF has been a hole so far this season and it doesn’t seem that Lind is going to get a shot. Bay was rumoured to have caught the eye of the Jays in the spring also, and adding a Canadian to the Jays would be good for the fans too.

Pittsburgh might take a package of David Purcey and Adam Lind for Bay…although Lind doesn’t really open the spot for Steve Pearce…

by bunner on May 26, 2008 9:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That could work. Purcey and Lind could have quite a bit of appeal to the Pirates. The Jays may need to throw in another player too.

by Squire_Boone on May 26, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Purcey and Lind would have appeal if....

Dave Littlefield was still the GM. They are exactly the kind of “major league ready” mediocrities that he couldn’t get enough of. Unfortunately, they don’t offer much to the Pirates. Lind might be okay, except that part of the point of trading Bay and Nady would be to open the door for Pearce-though of course, Pearce is struggling right now at AAA.

But Purcey? About all he would do is give the Pirates a bit more depth. He certainly wouldn’t provide them with a quality pitcher, AAA numbers this season notwithstanding.

by calig23 on May 26, 2008 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rays interest

I would think the Rays interest would be minimal in Bay and would seriously doubt they’d give up one of their top 4 SP prospects (Price, McGee, Davis, Hellickson).

If they did make a move for him, my guess is that SP’s Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine, Mitch Talbot could be in play.

AA Catcher John Jason (.893 ops last year at AA, struggling this year) might be available with the emergence of Navarro at the big league level.

OF Desmond Jennings might be in play. He is a high end athletic OF prospect that has both speed and power (.866 ops / 45 sb at A ball last year).

Would a package of Edwin Jackson and Desmond Jennings interest Pirate fans?

by thewb on May 26, 2008 10:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rays interest RE:

Yes, that would be a good package… i do like those players…

I have talked to many Rays fans who feel that Jennings and one of the propsect pitchers would be in play

by Schnoah on May 26, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We do not want to get rid of Jennings. His ceiling is Carl Crawford, and we'd like to see that for ourselves.

And it’s John Jaso, not Jason.

I could see Jackson, one of Hinske/Gross/Gomes, and a lower level prospect for Bay, but again, I doubt we’ll trade.

by Cory Alexander on May 26, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My Mariners

I wouldn’t mind if the Mariners offered up Wlad Balentein, Juan Ramirez, and Gregory Halman for Bay and Brian Bixler. Balentein could play this year for the Bucs and probably begin to produce in 09. Ramirez and Halman are A level guys with huge upside.

Bay would be a middle of the order guy the Mariners need, and could probably move Ibanez to DH; Bixler is an ideal 24th or 25th man, some pop and decent enough D up the middle. The emergence of Michael Saunders makes the loss of Balentein and Halman acceptable, and I think there’s enough upside in the deal to intrigue the Bucs.

by gogotabata on May 26, 2008 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

why?

Why would the M’s part with anyone at this point? Their season is a complete loss. There’s no reason to try and trade for a player to try and make a stretch run for the playoffs. Keep the young kids and hope for the best.

by sabernar on May 26, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Next season

Bay could form a solid core w/ Bedard, Ichiro, Felix, Putz, Beltre, and with decent complementary players like Ibanez, Lopez, Y-Bet, Johjima, etc. Bay isn’t super young but is young enough to still be a part of the next good M’s team and is a much surer bet to have positive value over the next 5 years than the 3 prospects, none of which are the sure thing Adam Jones is.

by gogotabata on May 26, 2008 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why?

“Bay isn’t super young but is young enough to still be a part of the next good M’s team and is a much surer bet to have positive value over the next 5 years than the 3 prospects”

So, then, why would Pittsburgh make the trade?

by sabernar on May 26, 2008 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why?

Because they don’t have the payroll that Seattle has. They’re in a rebuild from scratch mode (or at least they should be), with the next good Bucs team being about 3-4 years away. The Mariners have a strong enough core to compete in the near future - high upside prospects like Balentein, Ramirez & Halman fit into the Pitt trajectory better, and I think Bay fits in better with what the M’s are going to be doing. I think Bay is exactly the sort of guy Seattle should be targeting - worse case scenario, they trade three guys for him and they don’t compete this year or next and they don’t sign him to a contract. They can still either pick up picks when he’s a free agent or flip him at next year’s deadline. Best case scenario is that he leads them to the playoffs next year and they sign him to a four year deal.

by gogotabata on May 26, 2008 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look at what swisher got

Swisher, after a really down year, got two top 50 arms and a decent CF prospect in Ryan Sweeney.

Bay is killing it right now, is twice the talent of swisher and is just as cheap. He should command a lot.

Carlos Quentin's time has arrived.

by Team Moneyball on May 26, 2008 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I wouldnt say that

Bay is twice as good as Swisher just because Swisher has been bad for 2 months…lets not forget how bad Bay was last year.

by jsmall404 on May 26, 2008 4:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well...

It’s true that Bay was pretty bad last season, but other than that, he has been a better player than Swisher. Aside from last year which, based on this year’s results, is looking more and more like simply an off year, Bay’s worst OPS+ since becoming a regular in 2004 is 132. Swisher’s best in three seasons as a regular is 127.

The Pirates should probably get the same for Bay as what Oakland got for Swisher.

by calig23 on May 26, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

swisher

I’m not going off of his bad two months, bay is simply a better overall player than swisher.

Swisher’s best year was pretty good, 35 bombs with great OBP. But his BA will never be good and his last 700+ abs might be indicating those 2006 numbers might have been a fluke. I’m a swisher fan, so I hope his power reemerges, but who knows.

Bay, in comparison has given us near-elite level performance every year except last year. Bay can hit .300 with a .390+ ob, 30+ jacks and about 10-15 steals.

Carlos Quentin's time has arrived.

by Team Moneyball on May 26, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bay Bad

yea, he was bad… and it was an injured year…. i would be curious to compare their numbers, and i bet Bay is still better!

by Schnoah on May 26, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

After reading everything from Rays fans

I can understand why they wouldn’t be willing to part with a top arm for Bay. They are a good organization and the right field platoon really isn’t killing the team. Someone will part with a top arm, though, plus a younger, riskier hitter/pitcher or two.

Maybe I am not knowledgable enough to find a match, but Huntington should be and the Pirates should get a very good return for Bay some time this year.

by DITO on May 27, 2008 8:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs