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Kershaw is official

http://insidethedodgers.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/05/public_enemy_no_1.html

I imagine he won't get too many pitches in his debut, regardless of how he looks -- both Kuo and Park haven't pitched since their last 4-inning half-games the last time through the rotation, so they will likely finish off the game, depending on the circumstances, this time around.

Anyway, what are everyone's thoughts on what to expect from Kershaw this year alone? Personally, I wouldn't expect him to be much more than a back-of-the-rotation starter, with occasional big-K games and not too many hits, but way too many walks (and bad pitch counts), and a tendency to give up homers once he lets people on base. Anyway, I'm mostly writing this to make sure I get over the word limit.

How about this question: For this year alone, Scherzer or Kershaw?

I'm going Scherzer in a no-brainer.

Second question: Which one long-term?

I'll go Kershaw, but I think that mostly comes down to durability.

Anyway, continue to speculate below.

1 recs | Comment 38 comments

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Kershaw

I’ll take Kershaw long term, and I don’t think it’s that close. This year it’ll be close though. I really can’t decide who I like better this year.

by supermets on May 24, 2008 2:02 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmmm remember Rick Ankiel

Kershaw has control problems at times, don’t want another Ankiel here and Kershaw can’t hit like Ankiel can.

by Bravesin07 on May 24, 2008 2:28 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   3 recs

aww c'mon

you should know Braves’ comps are legendary. He may as well compare him to the guy Bull Durham was based on

The Giants need to sign Harry Doyle.

by jrose643 on May 24, 2008 2:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

no, i don't remember Rick Ankiel

who’s that now?

anyway, now that you mention him, i’m pretty terrified that Kershaw is going to turn out exactly like Rick Ankiel, who is the only other prospect to suffer from these “control problems” of which you speak.

you know that Ankiel’s troubles weren’t “control problems,” right? he was great when he was walking over 4.5-per-9 in the majors. he “problems” were when he turned into a headcase. so unless you also have some inane reason to speculate about Kershaw’s mental instability (or perhaps that “control problems” are a manifestation of mental weakness?), i would, you know, stop posting.

by bleedjaxblue on May 24, 2008 2:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rick Ankiel didn't have control problems

He had a mental block from throwing off the mound in general. Ankiel was on his way to a HOF career. Had one wild playoff start. And mentally broke.

by Loweinblu on May 25, 2008 5:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kershaw

I am going to go out on a limb and take Kershaw in the long term AND short term!!!!

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on May 24, 2008 2:31 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No I think Kershaw is going to be great but lets remember that you don't assume greatness right away

Look at Phil Hughes, granted he’s young but everyone thought he was going to be one of the best pitchers in a long while and now he’s passed by Joba who came out of knowhere last year after being relatively average in college ball.

by Bravesin07 on May 24, 2008 2:49 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

dude

you reminded people that Kershaw won’t have hitting to fall back on if he fails as a pitcher like Ankiel.

now, i like revisionist history as much as the next guy, but that is distinctly a long-term prediction, not a reminder not to expect greatness right away.

anyway, i’m not sure why you thought everyone needed the “reminder” that prospects aren’t great immediately. who were you responding to?

finally, Joba Chamberlain, average in college ball? coming out of nowhere? where do you get this stuff? i’m not saying he may not have surpassed expectations, but that’s true of every great young player who wasn’t a top-3 pick. including Kershaw and Hughes.

by bleedjaxblue on May 24, 2008 2:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I hear Dwight Eisenhower wasn't a very good pitcher either

I hope Kershaw is ready for the challenges to a military or a political career as well.

Just in case

by OldProspects on May 25, 2008 1:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

remember, not all politicians are great right off the bat

Hillary looked really promising a few months ago before revealing herself to be an amoral c*nt and being surpassed by both Joba and Obama.

i fear the same thing will happen with Kershaw—he’ll be lucky to head the PTA in a few years.

by bleedjaxblue on May 26, 2008 4:06 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

exactly

in years they will be playing clips of Bush along with old SNL hilights.

by pedrophile on May 27, 2008 6:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think a 3.89 ERA is great for college ball

Plus Joba didn’t even average a K per inning. Heck, right after he was drafted Hardball times thought he was the next Sidney Ponson, but the Yankees changed him which was good for him.

by Bravesin07 on May 24, 2008 3:15 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

he was drafted in the supplemental first round...

.....despite the fact that everyone thought he was a huge injury risk and he had big bonus demands.

but you did read a comp about him once, which i know is all that speaks to you.

i have a question, though: if he “came out of nowhere,” why was Hardball Times writing about him right after he got drafted? and why do you even remember the comp, for that matter?

by bleedjaxblue on May 24, 2008 3:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Special K

Here’s my question about Kershaw, with out a doubt he’s the most exciting prospect at the moment, but how good is he compared to other prospects who have come up recently? Is he a better prospect than felix or liriano were? lincecum, joba, hamels?

where does he fit in the line of recent top prospects in terms of ceiling? all those guys had us (well, me at least) excited but it’s tough to differentiate the elite from the elite. Or is it not worth bothering, and it can’t be discerned how good the guys will be relative to each other until they pitch in the bigs for a bit?

Go Jays

by providence bruins on May 24, 2008 3:27 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the real answer....

....is the cop-out you offer at the end. or perhaps more of a cop-out, which is that health will almost certainly be the ultimate determinant of who is most successful over their respective careers.

making an effort to rank them, though, i think Felix and Lincecum are clearly at the top of the class.

Liriano has always been a health question. also, i think he generated (and deserved) more hype once he started pitching in the majors, but I think he was a cut below in terms of excitement while he was still in the minors.

I’d put Hamels just barely ahead of Kershaw, Joba just barely behind? At this point, though, I could be convinced of any order.

If I were ranking for how good of a career I think they’ll all end up with, I’ll go with that order (Liriano being last, though, for health reasons).

by bleedjaxblue on May 24, 2008 4:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmm...

As you say, it’s too early to really answer the ranking question, but I would put Hamels more than just barely ahead of Kershaw, although that’s probably in part based on the fact that Hamels has already established himself in the bigs, while Kershaw’s just getting his feet wet so far.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on May 27, 2008 1:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

my screen name

shows where is stand long term and short term. I’m a tribe fan and I’m flyin out to LAX for the June 21 series LAD vs CLE. Hope Kershaw pitches….

by kershaw_equals_stud on May 25, 2008 12:16 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

watching him now.

dang is he impressive. overpowering fastball, great curve, and seems to have fine command at least in this appearance.

pujols timed his big curve pretty nicely in the first, and on the ‘doubts’ side i worry about guys with big curveballs. it just seems they work better in the minors than in the majors. Impressive as all hell when they drop in, but too often they’re both hard to control and easily (and often!) mis-called by umpires, and also too easy to hang. Even if less pleasing to the eye, I tend to prefer tighter curves.

but….i’m just looking for a nit to pick, there (Pujols got a hit off of him? send him back to the minors!)...basically he looks stunning.

by scooter on May 25, 2008 5:07 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

David Wells

is one of the few to consistently locate the big slow curve. Zito had it for a while.

I’m not a big fan of this pitch but when you have a fastball like Kershaw I think he can rely on the fastball when the curve isn’t on. I do think he will need a go to pitch (other than fastball) though.

by pedrophile on May 25, 2008 6:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

curveballs

its a matter of if your a fastball pitching with a good curseball (sheets and healthy kerry wood) or a curveball pitcher who has a fastball (rich hill or Zito) From watching Kershaw today he seems closer to the first set of players. But I do agree he needs a straight change, something most pitchers need when they come up to the bigs.

"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"

by Trobone on May 26, 2008 12:12 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

it's weird

he was supposed to throw a change-up in the minors, but he definitely didn’t feature one today, and Scully reported that he didn’t have one. i’m guessing that: 1) Scully is wrong, and 2) he didn’t throw it because the coaches decided his change-up wasn’t advanced enough to throw to big leaguers yet? or else he didn’t want to reveal it to the league this early, since it wasn’t necessary to use more than the two pitches for the time-being (since no one had seen him before)? i’m only taking guess though.

i agree, though - he needs another pitch, badly. as good as the curveball was, people knew which counts to expect it in and were able to adjust enough to at least foul the pitches off (which i think is why the fastball was such an effective strikeout pitch today - people were sitting back on the curve). over time, that’s just not going to work out—especially if he wants to go deeper into games.

by bleedjaxblue on May 26, 2008 4:13 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

did you watch?

those pitches in the mid to low 80s was his change up. In one AB against Pujols, he threw his change up 3 straight times to him.

by npurcell on May 26, 2008 4:23 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

damn

you’re completely right—i just checked the DodgerThoughts gametrack, and he threw a dozen or so of them.

i did watch the game, but more than a little drunk still from the night before, so i can’t say my focus was at its peak. i think i missed most of those, and kind of assumed he hadn’t thrown any at all because of Scully’s comment and the people above who said he didn’t use a third pitch.

by bleedjaxblue on May 26, 2008 8:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

except

I think the writer is totally off.

1) He comments on fastball lateral movement and that it’s a plus that the movement sometimes goes one way and sometimes another. Since the movement is only 2 inches either way who cares? And it’s much better if the pitcher knows where the ball will break. The only exception is when the break is insane and the pitcher can toss it down the middle.

2) Mentions the lateral movement on the curve is huge against lefties and how it makes it so hard for them. LOL. The lateral movement actually makes it easier for lefties. A hitter can’t swing up and down and must have a swing plane with some lateral movement. This movement helps those hitters with a lot of lift and will result in HR’s at times.

3) The changeup. Where to start? Well, almost 10 mph is NOT a huge difference. It’s a solid gap. 12 + mph difference is very good. Santana throws it around 12 to 15 mph slower. Last start he was going 77mph to 82mph for the change. His fastball was 89 to 93. About 11mph. But his stuff has declined a little, in the past the change was the same velocity but the fastball was 90-95.

3) The changeup part deux. The drop on the change was very close to the fastball. When you account for a slower pitch there should be more vertical drop due to gravity. So the change doesn’t have any more bite than the fastball. ouch.

4) changeup trois. A quality change has 3 things. Change of speed, arm action, movement. It seems like the change of speed is solid. I don’t know about the arm action. The movement is poor. This combination does not make for a plus pitch. I’m not even convinced it’s mlb average. More of a show me pitch. Which is ok. But completely the opposite of the article.

by pedrophile on May 27, 2008 6:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

it's what happened to McGowan against Cleveland

at times McGowan struggles with location, especially the off-speed stuff. Cleveland sat fastball all game. If McGowan had control of his off-speed he would have handled them. But since he didn’t that game they crushed him. He has one of the best fastballs in the game. But when a team is sitting on it AND you are getting yourself in hitters counts you will get hit.

Once Kershaw has success teams will sit fastball and force him to consistenly get his curve over. Some games it won’t be a problem for him and in-game the teams adjust. But when he can’t it will be an ugly night.

by pedrophile on May 26, 2008 6:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

seems like a fair read

the funny thing about Kershaw, though, was that he seemed to command the curveball really well - it was just in predictable counts. the fastball he had the same problem McGowan does - just too live of an arm to completely control it. hitters were willing to expand the zone a LOT on the fastball yesterday. in the (short) long-run, i think he’ll be in more trouble if he can’t hit the glove better with his fastball. (in the long long-run, i think Kershaw’ll probably be just swell—or it’s certainly not worth speculating about now, when he’s 20 years old and in the majors.)

by bleedjaxblue on May 26, 2008 8:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fine point

Having never seen CK live before, my biggest takeway was how crazy his delivery must look to hitters, especially on the CB. It seems like he’s all elbows and knees, and at 6’4”, that’s a lot of elbows and knees.

Having to be able to gear up for a 94+ FB and yet stay back on the insane CB with all those distractions could be plenty tough, and perhaps that’s where the expanded zone comes from?

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on May 27, 2008 1:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

absolutely

hitters looked like it was a wiffle ballgame where the pitcher stands to close - they were just preparing to swing before the ball was released. the thing is, after a few games, major leaguers will learn that the default should be to take. i guess i’d just like to see a few more games, because it wasn’t clear to me he was getting people to chase because of deception rather than mere overaggressiveness. obviously, everything you mentioned plays a role in deception, but it didn’t remind me of - for instance—the way Kuo gets people to chase high fastballs.

by bleedjaxblue on May 27, 2008 6:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Related question

What date is the deadline for call-ups relative to Super Two status? The Dodgers brought him up before it this year, right?

by siddfynch on May 26, 2008 2:23 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Super Two Status

I thought it was only if the player broke camp with the team – i.e. was on the major league roster the entire year. I could be wrong though. I just remember that being the talk with Longoria – that TB did not want him to break camp and get the super two status (which ended up being nullified anyway with the contract).

by guru4u on May 26, 2008 3:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Super 2

a player can be classified as a “Super Two” and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.

http://www.mlb.com/pa/info/faq.jsp

by Thinkblue on May 26, 2008 4:19 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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