Concerns about Cameron Maybin coming to fruition?
by Loweinblu on May 2, 2008 8:11 PM EDT
21 comments
One month into the season and Maybin's stat line looks like this:
217 avg, 363 obp, 359 slg
92 abs, 20 hits, 0 doubles, 2 triples, 3 hr, 8 rbi, 20 walks, 37 strikeouts
His past babip does seem like a fluke. Zero doubles is a bad sign imo.
I know it's only a month, but I'm willing to call him a bust. Props to whoever pointed out these indicators on the old site.
Maybin - Stud or Bust?
(Please excuse the bad grammar and spelling. Can't be helped. I'm an idiot.)
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One more thing. I think Maybin will be the type that is either very good or very bad.
by Loweinblu on May 2, 2008 8:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
dude
he is 21..and you are calling him a bust? lol get a grip!
by jsmall404 on May 2, 2008 8:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
I think it’s way too early to call him a complete bust. His OBP is pretty high, and the 20/37 BB/K ratio is actually better than his 43/83 ratio at Lakeland last year. That shows that his pitch recognition is getting better, which is something.
Plus, you’re making a judgement call on 92 AB. The kid was bounced between A, AA and the Majors last year, and was put under quite a little pressure by the Marlins during spring training. I don’t think it’s fair to call him a bust just yet.
by demondeaconsbaseball on May 2, 2008 8:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My concern with Maybin is that he doesn’t hit enough line drives. i’ve never seen him play, but I’m guessing he has a long swing that either produces long flyballs or weak groundballs.
by Loweinblu on May 2, 2008 8:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I dunno
I’m a Tigers fan, and I’ve read quite a bit on Maybin. People comment on his groundball/strikeout tendencies, but I’ve never heard that before, and you’d think a lack of line drives would be something people would write about.
by demondeaconsbaseball on May 2, 2008 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Check out his splits from Lakeland last year: only 22 line drives.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on May 3, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
But isn’t elevating the ball something he needs to learn with time? John wrote in the BPB that him hitting the ball on the ground and legging it out would slow his power development. Could the delay be the Marlins trying to encourage Maybin to hit more liners or change his approach?
by demondeaconsbaseball on May 3, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bust
I’ve been saying he would be a bust for 2 years. I’ve never liked him. That hasn’t changed. I see him as a fringe major leaguer.
by supermets on May 2, 2008 10:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
lol
just cuz u dont like him dosent mean he is a bust…you have been saying he is a bust for 2 years? so since he was drafted? how do you bust as soon as u are drafted lol.
that statement just shows you dont really know what you are looking at when evaluating players.
he may wind up as a mike cameron..but to say he is a fringe major leaguer at this point is stupidity
by jsmall404 on May 2, 2008 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Melky Cabrera?
Not sure I’d quite call him ‘average.’ I think the kid is gonna be a great player.
by river_cat28 on May 2, 2008 11:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That confused me as well
.832 OPS so far this year from CF at age 23 is pretty darn good.
by Reddrummer9187 on May 3, 2008 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh
He certainly will have OBPs around .360 or .370, but any power or speed is temporary. He’s not a very athletic or fit guy, his homers so far have been barely over the wall at Yankee stadium, and in general he doesn’t hit balls very hard.
by METSMETSMETS on May 3, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not this year
he’s showing much more power. He’ll have decent pop once his body fills out.
by number_twentyone on May 3, 2008 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Almost Stud
The kid has a .878 OPS at AA after 140 career PA at the level. I wouldn’t write him off yet.
And his BABIP of .327 this year isn’t a problem. Nor is hitting a lot of ground balls. There are plenty of outstanding hitters who hit a lot of ground balls and thus have high BABIP. His BABIP of .400 last season was certainly high enough to think that it was unsustainable, but a player like Maybin will likely average a BABIP of around .340-.350, between his speed and ground ball tendency.
The real warning sign there is the strikeout rate. Especially for a player without a lot of power, his strikeout rate of 1 every 4.2 PA last season was alarming. Normally that gets worse as you move up. His rate of 1 per 3.1 PA this year is too low for him to be an effective big league hitter. Now it’s not that unusual for a young inexperieced player to have a high strikeout rate either, and it can improve as he adjusts to the pitching, but it does indicate he likely isn’t going to move quickly.
He may need to spend all of this season in AA and maybe next season in the minors as well, if you really want him to be ready to hit in MLB. And we’ll see how the pitch recognition and strikeout rate improve. Those things normally suffer initially after a promotion. So you don’t want to judge too much from a players first 100 AB at a level.
I would say you would have a pretty good argument that the high SO rate is enough to keep him out of the top 10 “elite” group right now, but his overall package of tools and ceiling should at least put him somewhere in the top 50. If four months from now he hasn’t shown any improvement at all, then maybe you can think about dropping him a bit more. I’d like to see him get back to at least 1 per 4 PA, and I’d really like it up to 1 per 5 PA at that level before trying him in MLB.
by acerimusdux on May 3, 2008 1:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Response
He’s in the very good range, top 25-35 prospect probably. Might have the best tools in the minors but RAW. I wouldn’t get down on him yet, as the athlete-but-not-a-ballplayer-yet guys often face their biggest development hurdles in AA. If he has to spend a couple of full seasons in AA figuring things out, then there’s nothing wrong with that as long as he makes steady improvements.
Great raw power, tons of speed, decent glove, knows how to take a pitch . . .I wouldn’t oversell this guy to the moon like BA tends to do, but he offers a lot of good things that you’d love to see in a 21 y/o prospect.
by mrkupe on May 3, 2008 12:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's fine
He’ll be fine. Take a look at McCutchen last year. He wasn’t looking so good. Now, a year later he has started to take off.
by nborton on May 3, 2008 5:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bust
28% K’s
7.5% LD
16% GB hits
25% GB outs
21% FB
3% Popups
—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-
100% -> total at bats last year
This excludes BB’s which are plate appearances. He does get a lot of walks I’ll give him that.
It’s his incredibly low number of hard hit balls combined with his high K’s and high BB’s that scare me. The walks impress some people but not me. If he is walking a lot then that should mean he is looking for pitches to drive. Typically guys that walk a lot plus K a lot hit the ball very hard when in play. They ignore pitches they can’t handle and blast ones they can. Maybin is waiting on his pitch then doing nothing with it.
Some people will talk about his age or his walks or his OPS. But when it comes down to it at some point he will have to hit. And that’s not something he has shown he can do. Run fast? Check. Walk? Check. Hit the ball hard? Fail.
by pedrophile on May 4, 2008 6:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well...
You left out that 10.52% of those at bats last year were extra base hits. That’s a higher percentage than Lastings Milledge in 2005 (9.41%) and close to Delmon Young that same year (10.57%). I know he’s fast, but is he really getting doubles and triples on weak infield ground balls? Somehow I suspect those balls are hard hit.
I agree that the strikeout rate is a concern, but I don’t agree that he’s not hitting the ball hard.
by acerimusdux on May 5, 2008 12:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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