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Revisiting the mrkupe Top 25 Pitchers (of Doom)

Some months back (December 28 to be exact), I posted a list of who I thought to be the top 25 pitching prospects in the game. It's very early in the evaluation process, having had only spring training and the first month of the season to see how our young arms have developed, but nonetheless I think it's interesting to see where I was right and where I was (ever-so-dreadfully) wrong. I think it's also fun to look at the guys that various other posters called me out on, for what they perceived to be an aggressive appreciation or depreciation of  value. Finally, it serves as a quick "where are they now" reference guide for those who haven't paid much attention in the early going. My comments are posted beneath each name.

  1. Buchholz, Clay

Shaky spring training, but looks good if slightly erratic in early going. Continues to have occasional issues with falling in love with secondary pitches, but nothing that maturation will not fix. Forecast has not changed, looks great. A 4.08 ERA for a rookie pitching out of Fenway in the AL East is outstanding, just ask Daisuke. Stock: Holding

  1. Chamberlain, Joba

Still pitching great in relief, stuff looks awesome as ever. Not showing us anything we didn't already know but not really his fault. Continue to be very high on him, will be interesting to see how he translates his performance into a starting role at some point. Stock: Holding

  1. Price, David

Looked very impressive in spring training, now currently out with forearm strain. Not sure if this is just an organization being extremely cautious (as the Rays tend to be with their pitchers) or something to be concerned about. I think the good balances out the bad here for the moment. Stock: Holding (or perhaps a slight dropoff if you're on the more cautious side concerning injuries)

  1. Kershaw, Clayton

Became the toast of spring training by sticking in major league camp all of March. Made Sean Casey wish Youtube had never been invented. Now having few difficulties in Double A and beating down the door to the majors. He ranks behind only Buchholz on this list, and one can make a fair argument for him as No. 1. Combines a Mark Buehrle approach with a Barry Zito (Cy Young edition) curveball and Johan Santana fastball, which should give him a very good chance to make an immediate impact upon reaching the majors. Stock: Rising

  1. Porcello, Rick

Aggressively sent to Florida State League, looks about as good as one can hope for with only some minor hiccups. Frontline starter stuff with nearly unheard of poise for such a young arm. Has jumped another notch or two . . .Grade A prospect to be sure, but still 4th best prospect on this list. Stock: Rising - should be interesting to see whether people prefer Porcello or Kershaw as the top pitching prospect still in the minors

  1. Kennedy, Ian

In the process of falling apart against ML competition, not making me look real good. Probably needed at least a couple of months of consolidation time in the minors and perhaps more. Needs to reassert himself, may have to do it in the minors. Still like his chances of being at least a solid ML pitcher. Stock: Falling sharply but due to aggressive ranking and high expectations for a guy in his second year of pro ball more than anything else

  1. Cueto, Johnny

Extremely aggressive approach for a young and very live arm has benefited him well against MLers not familiar with his stuff. Homer prone but great peripherals. Transitioning well all things considered and just needs some time to refine his approach. I think he fits just fine here, no higher and no lower. Stock: Rising slightly

  1. Gonzalez, Gio

Pitching well but not exceptionally so in Triple A. Needs to refine his command against advanced batters but based on previous track record of steady improvement I have confidence in this. Note only one HR given up in 25 innings of PCL work. Should be a quality LH starter with the potential to be more than that. Mildly concerned that he may be leveling off but solid repertoire across the board means he should contribute in the majors in a meaningful way. Stock: Holding.

  1. McDonald, James

ERA is ugly in the Southern League but peripherals look sharp as ever, and he's been hit-unlucky. Something of a work in progress but his combination of throwing strikes and solid stuff makes me think he could be a good one. Makes me think a lot of Joe Blanton, which can be a good or a bad thing depending on your perspective. Stock: Falling slightly

  1. Davis, Wade

Continuing the transition from thrower to pitcher, Ks down but so are the walks. Overall line would look much better if not for Matt LaPorta. May need some time to put everything together, but he's in one of the better organizations for that and he could be excellent in time. Worst case health permitting is that he eats a ton of innings at the major league level with consistently solid performance. Best case is that he's a No. 2 starter, but I'm skeptical of projecting him as a true ace type. Stock: Holding

  1. Horne, Alan

Has only pitched twice this year in Triple A, currently out with a biceps tendon tear in pitching arm. Looked okay in what little we saw of him but obviously this doesn't do much to mitigate concerns about his ability to avoid injury. I still like him as a guy with good stuff and improving command, but some caution should be exercised here. Stock: Falling

  1. Morales, Franklin

When first writing this list, I had a comment next to his name: "will either post a 3.50 or a 6.00 ERA this year." Well . . .yeah. His mechanics are falling apart. Velocity has been all over the place and his control has regressed. Got destroyed in the majors before recent demotion. Still has promise if he can figure things out, but March and April have shown just how far he away he is from being a consistent major league contributor. Stock: Falling like a rock

  1. Mulvey, Kevin

Looking great in Triple A, striking out plenty of batters with good control. Appears to be a nice bet to be at least a #3 starter in the majors. A finesse guy with markedly better-than-finesse-guy stuff, with developing confidence in that stuff. Hard to argue with anything about this guy, has responded very well to aggressive rate of promotion and has passed through every challenge with success. A very good prospect who might not get his due until he settles in at the major league level. Stock: Rising

  1. McGee, Jacob 

Has only one truly bad start on the year, but still a work in progress. Needs to harness his stuff - lots of walks and homers are not an inspiring combination . Note that while he strikes out plenty of RH batters, righties nonetheless hit him pretty well. The current version of the epitome of the high risk, high reward pitching prospect. Stock: Holding

  1. Adenhart, Nick

Just promoted to the majors after 31 sterling innings in the PCL. Nibbles too much but stuff is very good across the board, as anyone who has seen him can attest. Starting to put things together,  and I think the peripheral numbers will come around with good health and experience. Too smart and savvy to beat himself in the long-term. Stock: Rising

  1. De Los Santos, Fautino

Striking out lots of batters in the Cal League but overall numbers are mediocre otherwise. Not terribly worried as the Cal League is especially hard for a raw arm who knows only one speed: hard. Hard not to be optimistic about a guy with solid heat and a sick slider. Makes me think a lot of Juan Cruz. Stock: Holding, but don't ask for too much too soon out of this one

  1. Parra, Manny   

Having adjustment issues in the majors, but then again 25 relatively crappy innings in the majors shouldn't count too much against him. Should be an above-average LH starter in time. Biggest concern would be that injury-prone tendencies kick in and interrupt his development at this crucial juncture. Stock: Holding

  1. Bailey, Homer 

Looked terrible in the spring, but pitching well to start the year in Triple A with much better control. Concerns about altering his mechanical approach with different pitches may take time or a promotion to bubble back to the surface. My guess is that he's still going to need a fair amount of consolidation time in the majors, but I'm more optimistic about him now than I was before the season. Stock: Rising

  1. Anderson, Brett

Having few troubles with the Cal League as a 20 y/o, advanced approach and multiple present plus pitches suggest that he'll be ready to move up a level shortly. Does virtually everything you could want in a young pitcher other than burn up the radar gun, but different from many pitchers of that mold in that he already has pitches that will hold up against more advanced batters. A guy for both scouts and statheads to appreciate, one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. Stock: Rising rapidly

  1. Cortes, Dan

 Made three decent starts in Double A before hitting the DL with a left quad strain. Should be a solid innings eater at the major league level with the potential to be above-average. Not a good candidate for aggressive promotion but a guy who has a nice track record of steady improvement.  Nothing to complain about here, but not much to say either. Stock: Holding

  1. Alderson, Tim

Aggressively promoted to Cal League as 19 y/o, holding his own and then some. Quickly asserting himself as sabermetric darling due to very advanced command and performance record. Turning himself into one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, but some restraint is advised. His stuff is solid but not stellar across the board as a SP, and there is a fairly good chance that he will level out in higher levels of the minors. A high floor No. 3 SP is most likely, may be a No. 2 but we may have to wait and see how his stuff rates at higher levels. Stock: Rising sharply

  1. Cahill, Trevor

Long-time personal favorite is making himself known with outstanding performance in the Cal League. I thought he'd look solid this year and then break out next year, but improved command of breaking stuff is letting him carve up A ball batters. Combination of athleticism, intelligence, and solid stuff across the board makes him a pretty good one. Stuff suggests a No. 3 starter but intangibles make me think he's a good candidate to pitch beyond that. Stock: Rising

  1. Miller, Adam ("to be a pitching prospect, one must, in fact, pitch")

Finally pitching again in Triple A after missing much of the spring with finger injury. Has looked good in the early going but nobody has ever doubted his ability to look good in spurts. Probably should get a chance to contribute for the ML team by the middle of the season assuming he stays healthy, but frankly heavy skepticism about that assumption is warranted. I don't think we're seeing anything in Miller that we didn't already know, and the questions we have can only be answered with time. Stock: Holding

  1. Robertson, Tyler

Sickels favorite pitching well in Florida State League, with lots of strikeouts and groundballs. Putting up a sub-3 ERA despite terrible luck on balls in play. Needs to refine his command but hard to argue with what he's doing. Should probably spend most/all of the year in A ball for his own good and then move up quickly after that. Stock: Rising

  1. Volstad, Chris

Former first round pick is starting to put everything together. Has always been underrated by sabermetric community due to heavy reliance on outstanding sinker rather than his quality secondary offerings. Maturation has led to improvement in curveball and an increased willingness to use it, contributing to steady rise in strikeout rate. A smart pitcher who does almost everything very well and should only get better with time. Now one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, and a great example of why one should remember the minors are about development rather than statistical performance. Stock: Rising sharply

 

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

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