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Shadow Draft Current Thoughts

On the 6-hour drive to Burlington I spent some time thinking about the Shadow Draft for my fake Twins farm system.

I've gone with high schoolers at the top of the last two drafts and I think I want to pick up some college guys this time in the top couple of rounds. As we have discussed, the Twins pick 14th, 27th, and 31st. I want to add some hitting to the system and would tend to lean in that direction, though not to the point of completely excluding pitchers from the equation.

At 14, the five college guys who intrigue me most would be Brett Wallace and Ike Davis of Arizona State on the hitting side, with Christian Friedrich of Eastern Kentucky, Josh Fields of Georgia, and Shooter Hunt of Tulane on the pitching side. This assumes that none of the other top names fall unexpectedly. Wild card would be Tanner Scheppers if he falls....would depend on his medical reports.

Scenarios:

GOING STRONG FOR HITTING SCENARIO
14: Wallace or Davis
27: Connor Gillaspie or Reese Havens
31: Eric Thames or best available college outfielder

BALANCED COLLEGE SCENARIO
14: College pitcher
27: Gillaspie or Havens
31: Thames or best available college OF

GENERAL BALANCE
14: College Pitcher
27: Best Available College Hitter
31: Best Available High School Hitter or Pitcher

Just sharing my thoughts here. Things will continue to evolve, and you can bet that all 30 real teams are running through this kind of thinking in their war rooms.

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Thames question

Really starting to become very intrigued by Thames. If he had two seasons like this one, how high would he go?

by 31Boots on May 19, 2008 6:16 PM EDT   0 recs

Park factors

According to Boyd’s World, Pepperdine’s 04-07 PF is 71, which makes Thames’ stats this year that much more impressive (caveat: Pepperdine’s PF this year so far is 105).

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on May 19, 2008 10:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yonder Alonso

Is there anyway he could drop to the Twins for the 14th pick? Also, if he did is he versitile enough to be moved over to 3rd base from 1st base? I am guessing this might be a stretch, but who knows.

by ahope on May 19, 2008 7:24 PM EDT   0 recs

Alonso

He’s strictly a first baseman who will not be moved to any other position.

by SBcaptain2 on May 19, 2008 7:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Play it by ear

Cop out answer, but my general approach.

That being said, I like the hitters you mention more than the pitchers, so the college hitting scenario sounds more like one I could get behind than any of the others. I kinda like some of the HS outfielders that are projecting in the late 1st/early sandwich though, so if I had those picks, I might be looking at one of them at 27 or 31 if they’re available.

"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain

by JM Barten on May 19, 2008 7:59 PM EDT   0 recs

I think going college hitter first is the best bet at 14. I really feel like you are going to get a quality bat at 14 and I’m just not sold on a lot of the pitchers out there for your first pick. I’m not sure Wallace falls and would be surprised if Alonso is there but one of them certainly could be. I thought you liked Davis more anyhow?

At 27, Fields probably wont be there but Cashner could be and I imagine Wallace will be. Heck maybe even take Thames or Havens at 27 if he is there and hope someone is there at 31.

Either way, just take the best available player that you like.

14: Alonso, Wallace, Davis, Weeks
27: Cashner, Wallace or Thames, Havens
31: Best available player

by jfish26101 on May 19, 2008 10:14 PM EDT   0 recs

I vote

for the general balance. The Twins generally go for upside guys over polished products. I might go this direction if I’m going for realism:

14: High upside high-school hitter or pitcher, Hicks is ideal
27: Best available college pitcher
31: Best available college hitter

Up to you though.

by Daniel Berlyn on May 19, 2008 10:55 PM EDT   0 recs

I love Hicks but John hasn’t shown to much interest in him for his shadow. Maybe he thinks he wont sign for slot? I don’t think John has really mentioned him for consideration in any of the 3 posts he has made about his thoughts on his shadow Twins draft.

by jfish26101 on May 20, 2008 10:16 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hicks

Said he’ll sign if drafted in the 1st round.

by batonball on May 20, 2008 10:29 AM EDT   0 recs

I think the picks will come down to individual preference and intuition rather than strategy.

There seems to me a clear demarcation between the top 13 (or 12 with Scheppers sidelined) and the rest. The Twins can hope that two or three wild cards crash the party so something with a better risk/reward combination becomes available.

Alonso would be a no brainer, but he’s limited to DH on the Twins—at least until Morneau departs.

Hunt smacks of Daniel Cabrera.

Friedrich is what he is – a #3, maybe. If he was right handed, he wouldn’t be in the top 13. And LHP’s have a minimal platoon advantage over RHP’s as I recall.

Lance Lynn at #27 or #31 might make more sense than Hunt or Friedrich at #14.

Fields and Cashner may be the best closers available. Are they that much better than the closers available after #14 or #27 or 31? There are at least 6 more in the top 60.

Wallace may not have the power to justify spending a #14 on a DH.

Davis certainly has been getting good pitches to hit and appears to have good power. But his plate discipline is suspect and his ability to handle the OF is relatively unknown.

Gillaspie’s defense is suspect. On some boards he’s a supplemental round pick.

Havens has had only one good year. He may be limited to 3B. Will his power play there?

Thames has a weak arm and needs to improve his routes. His routes may become playable in LF, even CF. Will his arm be playable?

Hicks is raw. He has two plus pitches, but poor command. Does he have the makings of a 3rd pitch? He’s a toolsy CF which the Twins have in abundance. Zach Collier might be a better play—more power and I understand a better hit tool.

I would prefer that the Twins draft a toolsy SS with a strong hit tool. Casey Kelly may or may not have the hit tool to justify #14. Tyler Ladendorf has all of the tools at #27 or #31—if his juco production translates to pro ball.

With three picks in the top 31, what about taking a chance on Scheppers at #27?

by lonestar on May 20, 2008 11:15 AM EDT   0 recs

Ike Davis can handle the OF

He successfully played RF all last season for the Sun Devils – his defense isn’t suspect. He has enough arm as well which he has shown this season as the ASU closer.

While everybody knocks the ASU stadium as a hitter’s park, it needs to be said that the Pac-10 is one of the toughest conferences in college baseball. The pitching isn’t average. Guys like Wallace and Davis can hit good pitchers on any given night – in my last nine years of watching ASU baseball, these guys are the best true hitters of the bunch (Ethier, Buck, Larish, Pedroia, Sogard, etc.).

by gunkdog on May 20, 2008 2:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Stupid question

Is Thames any relation to Marcus Thames?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 20, 2008 11:48 AM EDT   0 recs

I have not seen all of them play but

I think that Davis is the best college bet at 14. I really like Gilaspie at 27 and hope he falls to the Indians. I believe there will be a better college hitter than Thames at 31. There is no college pitcher that would likely fall to 14 that I like better than Davis. Gilaspie again. Same on 31. Still cannot see a college pitcher I like at 14. Still think I like Gilaspie at 27 and Casey Kelly would be my choice at 31.

by sdtribefan on May 21, 2008 3:23 AM EDT   0 recs

Gillaspie

On the Yankees board – we moved him to the top of our list, along with Wallace and Ike. We pick at 28. So it’s a good thing you pick in the slot before us. After you posted this our board was shot. Actually it’s a good thing as we had to examine other options.

by batonball on May 21, 2008 8:52 AM EDT   0 recs

Well Thames tore his quad yesterday I guess and is done for the season. Not sure what this does to his draft stock but I imagine he falls a little. He should be there at 31 I imagine now and maybe even at 60.

by jfish26101 on May 23, 2008 12:06 PM EDT   0 recs

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